{"id":9094,"date":"2024-10-29T09:52:01","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T01:52:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=9094"},"modified":"2024-10-29T09:52:01","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T01:52:01","slug":"%e7%ba%b3%e7%89%b9%e8%a5%bf%e5%b0%94%e5%bc%97%e3%80%8a%e4%bf%a1%e5%8f%b7%e4%b8%8e%e5%99%aa%e5%a3%b0%e3%80%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=9094","title":{"rendered":"\u7eb3\u7279\u2022\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u300a\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0e\u566a\u58f0\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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\u539f\u4f5c\u540d:\u00a0The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don’t
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\u51fa\u7248\u5e74:\u00a02013-8
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\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6216\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u671b\u800c\u5374\u6b65\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u672c\u4e66\u5c31\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u8bfb\u7269\uff0c\u68d2\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u3001\u804c\u4e1a\u6251\u514b\u724c\u624b\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u9009\u4e3e\u7b49\u4f8b\u5b50\u8db3\u4ee5\u52fe\u8d77\u8bfb\u8005\u7684\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e9f\u5bdd\u5fd8\u98df\u5730\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5176\u4e2d\u6f5c\u85cf\u7740\u5e2e\u4f60\u505a\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u3002\u2014\u2014\u300a\u77f3\u677f\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e0e\u7545\u9500\u4e66\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u6709\u5f02\u66f2\u540c\u5de5\u4e4b\u5999\u3002\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u5f80\u5f80\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6392\u65a5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u2014\u2014\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u5256\u6790\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u98ce\u66b4\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u7b49\u5e76\u975e\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u6240\u505a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u2014\u2014\u300a\u8fde\u7ebf\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8eab\u5904\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u3001\u6bcf\u4e00\u573a\u8fd0\u52a8\u8d5b\u4e8b\u548c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e0d\u8bfb\u3002\u2014\u2014\u300a\u798f\u5e03\u65af\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u975e\u5e38\u68d2\u7684\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5145\u6ee1\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u4e50\u8da3\u3002\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u7528\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6109\u60a6\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u2014\u2014\u8482\u59c6\u2022\u54c8\u798f\u5fb7\uff0c\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9884\u6d4b\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u672c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u65f6\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5374\u4e00\u65e0\u662f\u5904\uff1b\u4e5f\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u672a\u96e8\u7ef8\u7f2a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u5fc3\u4e0b\u4e00\u523b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u672c\u5fc5\u8bfb\u4e66\u3002\u2014\u2014\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u2022\u6cf0\u52d2\uff0c\u300a\u52a9\u63a8\u300b\u4f5c\u8005<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65f6\u4ee3\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u8ddf\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u89c2\u70b9\u65b0\u9c9c\u4e14\u539f\u521b\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u533a\u5206\u5173\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u73b0\u5b9e\u3001\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u660e\u667a\u5730\u4ece\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u6280\u672f\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u2014\u2014\u6d2a\u535a\u57f9\uff0c\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u9a7b\u534e\u5927\u4f7f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u4f60\u8bfb\u5b8c\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u66f4\u4e86\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u800c\u6709\u4e9b\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904\u3002\u4f60\u4e5f\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6ce8\u610f\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4e00\u5468\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e00\u5468\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5219\u6beb\u4e0d\u5728\u610f\u3002\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7684\u3001\u8270\u6da9\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u3001\u8f7b\u677e\u7684\u548c\u4eb2\u5207\u7684\u3002\u2014\u2014\u76ae\u7279\u2022\u5965\u65af\u624e\u683c\uff0c\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ba1\u7406\u53ca\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u51fa\u597d\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd9\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u7684\u786e\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u8be1\u8c32\u591a\u53d8\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u2014\u2014\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u2022\u5a01\u5c14\u900a\uff0c\u8c37\u6b4c\u516c\u53f8\u5f00\u53d1\u5927\u4f7f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f5c\u8005\u7b80\u4ecb  \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u7eb3\u7279\u2022\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u4f5c\u5bb6\u548c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u653f\u6cbb\u6027\u7f51\u7ad9538.com\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u30022008\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u4ed6\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa49\u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c2012\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u66f4\u662f\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u5168\u90e850\u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u795e\u5947\u5c0f\u5b50\u201d\u30022009\u5e74\uff0c\u300a\u65f6\u4ee3\u300b\u5468\u520a\u5c06\u4ed6\u8bc4\u9009\u4e3a\u5168\u7403100\u4f4d\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76ee\u5f55  \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5f15 \u8a00 XIII
\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0 \u9884\u6d4b\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u707e\u96be\u6027\u540e\u679c 001
\u4e00\u573a\u9519\u8bef\u9884\u6d4b\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u60b2\u5267 001
\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u60f3\u8ba9\u201c\u97f3\u4e50\u201d\u505c\u4e0b\u6765\u7f62\u4e86 004
\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u72af\u4e0b\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff1f 007
\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e55\uff1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab 011
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e55\uff1a\u8d1f\u503a\u7ecf\u8425 014
\u5e55\u95f4\u4f11\u606f\uff1a\u4ece\u8d2a\u5a6a\u5230\u6050\u60e7 017
\u7b2c\u4e09\u5e55\uff1a\u8fd9\u6b21\u8fd8\u662f\u72af\u4e86\u540c\u6837\u7684\u9519\u8bef 019
\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u662f\u975e\u6837\u672c\u9884\u6d4b 022
\u5931\u8d25\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u975e\u6837\u672c\uff0c\u65e0\u601d\u8003 024
\u524d\u4e8b\u4e0d\u5fd8\uff0c\u540e\u4e8b\u4e4b\u5e08 025
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0 \u653f\u6cbb\u9009\u4e3e\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u72d0\u72f8\u548c\u523a\u732c\uff0c\u8c01\u66f4\u806a\u660e\uff1f 027
\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u662f\u540d\u526f\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd8\u662f\u5f92\u6709\u865a\u540d? 030
\u72d0\u72f8\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\uff1a\u5584\u4e8e\u53d8\u901a\uff0c\u66f4\u5584\u4e8e\u505a\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b 032
\u523a\u732c\u578b\u4e13\u5bb6\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u505a\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u5609\u5bbe 034
\u653f\u6cbb\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5e38\u5e38\u5931\u8d25\uff1f 035
\u72d0\u72f8\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5 038
\u539f\u5219\u4e00\uff1a\u7528\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898 040
\u539f\u5219\u4e8c\uff1a\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4f60\u4ee5\u540e\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b 043
\u539f\u5219\u4e09\uff1a\u5bfb\u6c42\u5171\u8bc6 044
\u5b9a\u6027\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0e\u5b9a\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u540c\u7b49\u91cd\u8981 046
\u505a\u51fa\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e76\u975e\u6613\u4e8b 049
\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0 \u68d2\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u7403\u63a2\u548c\u6570\u636e\u602a\u624d\uff0c\u8c01\u66f4\u80dc\u4e00\u7b79\uff1f 051
\u6784\u5efa\u68d2\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf 053
\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5e93 055
\u8001\u5316\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0e\u76f8\u4f3c\u5206\u6570 056
\u7403\u63a2\u4e0e\u6570\u636e\u602a\u624d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u51b2\u7a81 062
\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0e\u7403\u63a2\u7684\u5bf9\u51b3\uff1a\u7403\u63a2\u8d62\u4e86 063
\u7403\u63a2\u548c\u6570\u636e\u602a\u624d\u7684\u504f\u89c1 066
\u751f\u7406\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u5fc3\u7406\u6307\u6807 069
\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u9884\u6d4b\u6210\u8d25\u7684\u5173\u952e 074
\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5c31\u8d8a\u6210\u529f 076
\u300a\u70b9\u7403\u6210\u91d1\u300b\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u4e49 079
\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0 \u5929\u6c14\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u8774\u8776\u6247\u52a8\u7fc5\u8180\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u8d77\u9f99\u5377\u98ce 083
\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14\u5417\uff1f 085
\u6c14\u8c61\u9884\u62a5\u7b80\u53f2 086
\u7528\u77e9\u9635\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14 088
\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u8774\u8776\u6548\u5e94 092
\u89c6\u89c9\u5316\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u62bd\u8c61\u5316\u9884\u6d4b 094
\u88ab\u96f7\u7535\u51fb\u4e2d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c0f\u4e86 098
\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u624d\u7b97\u662f\u597d\u9884\u6d4b\uff1f 101
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\u81f4 \u8c22 397<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/book.douban.com\/subject\/24872278<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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