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\uff08\u4e94\uff09\u7406\u8bba\u7f3a\u9677<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u201c\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u201d\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u90fd\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8870\u9000\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5782\u76f4\u7684IS\u66f2\u7ebf\u6240\u81f4\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e73\u5766\u7684LM\u66f2\u7ebf\uff08\u5409\u91ce\u76f4\u884c\u3001Taghizadeh-Hesary\uff0c2016\uff09\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8870\u9000\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u9677\u9631\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u8870\u9000\u53e6\u6709\u5176\u56e0\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u662f\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5347\u7ea7\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6a21\u5f0f\u66fe\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u817e\u98de\u8d77\u5230\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5df2\u8fbe\u53d1\u5c55\u74f6\u9888\uff0c\u4e14\u672a\u80fd\u5728\u539f\u6709\u4ea7\u4e1a\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5b9e\u73b0\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4e0e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4f7f\u65e5\u672c\u9677\u5165\u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08\u5de6\u51ef\u3001\u9b4f\u666f\u8d4b\uff0c2003\uff09\u3002\u6731\u5c14\u831c\u548c\u5b8b\u987a\u5cf0\uff082019\uff09\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u57281990\u20142007 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u57281990-1995\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u521b\u65b0\u4e0d\u8db3\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6ede\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u9677\u5165\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u53ca\u9002\u9f84\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u51cf\u5c11\uff08\u5409\u91ce\u76f4\u884c\u3001Taghizadeh-Hesary\uff0c2016\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u65e5\u672c\u6cd5\u5b9a\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f84\u4e3a60\u5c81\uff0c\u81f4\u4f7f\u591a\u6570\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u5165\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u65e5\u672c\u52b3\u52a8\u4eba\u53e3\u4f9b\u7ed9\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u52a0\u5267\u4e5f\u8feb\u4f7f\u653f\u5e9c\u9010\u5e74\u589e\u52a0\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u798f\u5229\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\u7528\u4e8e\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u652f\u51fa\u4ee5\u6269\u5927\u6709\u6548\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u662f\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4f7f\u7528\u6548\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u30021990\u5e74\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u589e\u52a0\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u5f53\u65f6\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u5185\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5efa\u8bbe\u5df2\u8f83\u4e3a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e58\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7a76\u5176\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u519c\u6751\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u57fa\u7840\u5efa\u8bbe\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u519c\u6751\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdc\u5c0f\u4e8e\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\u914d\u7f6e\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e14\u5e76\u672a\u6709\u6548\u4fc3\u8fdbGDP\u589e\u957f\uff08Yoshino & Sakakibara, 2002\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\u66f4\u52a0\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u519c\u6751\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6295\u8d44\u4e58\u6570\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u964d\uff08Yoshino et al., 1998\uff09\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u62c9\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u9010\u6e10\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u662f\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u6709\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u57281990-2007\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u9664\u4e2a\u522b\u5e74\u4efd\u5916\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u8d21\u732e\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5373\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u62d6\u7d2f\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u91d1\u8131\u5b9e\u5165\u865a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u662f\u9020\u6210\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff08\u6731\u5c14\u831c\u3001\u5b8b\u987a\u5cf0\uff0c2019\uff09\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u666f\u6c14\u4ee5\u53ca\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u6e90\u53d7\u9650\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u4e0e\u5b9e\u4f53\u8131\u79bb\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u672c\u79ef\u7d2f\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u521b\u65b0\u4e0d\u8db3\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e94\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u626d\u66f2\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u957f\u671f\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5bfc\u81f4\u6295\u8d44\u53ca\u8d44\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u6548\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u957f\u4e45\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\uff08\u95eb\u5764\u3001\u6c6a\u5ddd\uff0c2023\uff09\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8865\u8d34\u4f01\u4e1a\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u4f9d\u6258\u5229\u7387\u7ba1\u5236\u3001\u6570\u91cf\u8c03\u63a7\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7ba1\u63a7\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u8f83\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7834\u706d\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u7ee7\u7eed\u91c7\u53d6\u8fd9\u79cd\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u5411\u6548\u7387\u4f4e\u4e0b\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u8d44\u91d1\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u6e90\u9519\u914d\u73b0\u8c61\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u9020\u6210\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u50f5\u5c38\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfc\u81f4\u65e5\u672c\u5168\u8981\u7d20\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\uff08Hayashi & Prescott, 2002\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u5f53\u524d\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u5426\u9762\u4e34\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u7406\u8bba\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u7406\u8bba\u540c\u6837\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7814\u7a76\u76ee\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u6709\u4e24\u7c7b\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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