\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u89c2\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. \u7c97\u7565\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u667a\u6167\uff1a\u884c\u52a8\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e5f\u80fd\u7f8e\u597d<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6216\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u6709\u529b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. \u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u827a\u672f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u5f3a\u8c03\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6001\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. \u7b80\u7ea6\u4e0e\u5168\u9762\uff1a\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u4e0e\u591a\u7ef4\u8bc1\u4f2a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u5ba1\u89c6\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. \u56e0\u679c\u7684\u65b0\u8bed\u8a00\uff1a\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u5de5\u5177<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6. \u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u65cb\u5f8b\uff1a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u548c\u66f4\u65b0<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u5f3a\u8c03\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u901a\u8fc7\u8bd5\u63a2\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u800c\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7. \u667a\u6167\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\uff1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u6216\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8. \u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u8111\u7684\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u7ed3\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9. \u4f60\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4f60\uff1a\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u6743\u91cd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f60\u548c\u8c01\u8fde\u63a5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u201c\u6743\u91cd\u201d\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10. \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53cc\u9762\u6027\uff1a\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0e\u6000\u7591\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u627e\u5e73\u8861<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/strong>\u4e00\u9053\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u9898\u76ee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u67d0\u91cf\u5316\u5de8\u5934\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u9762\u8bd5\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f60\u67092\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5728\u665a\u4e0a\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u662f0.7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4eca\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c2\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u773c\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u662f\u30101-\uff081-0.7)\u76842\u6b21\u65b9\u3011\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u7acb\u5373\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u6211\u30020.7\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662fx\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u5668A\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u30100.7x+0.3\uff081-x\uff09\u3011\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u7684\u624b\u5de5\u89e3\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u63a8\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e24\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u201c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9898\u76ee\u4e2d\u662f\u7f3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bdb\u4f30\u4f30\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u572840%-60%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u4fbf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c1\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5×0.7\u3002\u6b64\u8c13\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u8c13\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u3010\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\/\uff08\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387+\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\u3011<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.5×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.5×0.7+0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f70%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c2\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u738770%\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u672c\u6b21\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7×0.7\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.7×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.7×0.7+\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f84.48%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4ece\u5c0f\u61d2\u5f97\u8bb0\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u540c\u5b66\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\u6211\u4e2d\u5b66\u8003\u8bd5\u65f6\u73b0\u63a8\u516c\u5f0f\u7b54\u5bf9\u6700\u96be\u7684\u7269\u7406\u9898\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u96f6\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"\/](\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\")
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5751\u7239\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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1968\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6838\u6f5c\u8247\u5728\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u4e9a\u901f\u6d77\u6d77\u57df\u5931\u8e2a\u4e86\uff0c\u6f5c\u8247\u4e0a\u768499\u540d\u6d77\u519b\u5b98\u5175\u5168\u90e8\u6773\u65e0\u97f3\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u5927\u6d77\u635e\u9488\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5c31\u641c\u5bfb\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6d77\u519b\u8bf7\u6765\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u7ec4\u7ec7\u641c\u5bfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u6bcf\u6b21\u5bfb\u627e\u65f6\uff0c\u5148\u6311\u9009\u6574\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u5185\u6f5c\u8247\u5b58\u5728\u6982\u7387\u503c\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\u5219\u4f1a\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u724c\u201d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u641c\u5bfb\u8239\u53ea\u5c31\u4f1a\u9a76\u5411\u65b0\u7684\u201c\u6700\u53ef\u7591\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u627e\u5230\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8fde\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\uff08\u6848\u4f8b2\uff09<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n2009\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u6cd5\u822a447\u4e0d\u5e78\u5760\u6bc1\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u52a8\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ec5\u53d1\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u6b8b\u9ab8\u788e\u7247\u548c29\u5177\u9047\u96be\u8005\u9057\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u8270\u82e6\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u767b\u573a\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u4e3a\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6551\u63f4\u961f\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\uff0c\u5148\u4ece\u6982\u7387\u6700\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u8fc7\u5f80\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22\u6700\u5927\u6982\u7387\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u793a\u8303\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u672c\u56fe\u6765\u81ea\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u8bd5\u7740\u4e0d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f50%\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f25%\uff08\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u6000\u7591\u6211\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fde\u6211\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u4e49\u51fa\u611a\u8822\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd9\u91cc\u201c\u627e\u6f0f\u4e86\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b25%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8be5\u611a\u8822\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e86B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f37.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u8fd8\u662f\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f12.5%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u768437.5%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5728ABCD\u56db\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u662f\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5A\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u90a337.5%\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u7070\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u5728\u300a\u4eba\u751f\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7684Day\u00a01\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7403\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u3002
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u72af\u9519\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u5237\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5929\u8d4b\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u300c\u4eba\u5fc3\u5c31\u5982\u4e00\u5757\u767d\u677f\u300d(Tabula Rasa)\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u89c2\u5ff5\u90fd\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5916\u754c\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6240\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u7701\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u5f97\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201d<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9999\u8549\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89c2\u5ff5\u662f\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u548c\u53cd\u7701\u662f\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5408\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u611f\u89c9\uff08sensation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7269\u523a\u6fc0\u611f\u5b98\uff0c\u611f\u5b98\u88ab\u52a8\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9ec4\u3001\u767d\u3001\u70ed\u3001\u51b7\u3001\u8f6f\u3001\u786c\u3001\u82e6\u3001\u751c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u5207\u6240\u8c13\u53ef\u611f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53cd\u7701\uff08reflection\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u7075\u4e3b\u52a8\u5730\u53cd\u7701\u81ea\u8eab\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u77e5\u89c9\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u6000\u7591\u3001\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3001\u63a8\u8bba\u3001\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3001\u610f\u6b32\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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2\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u90fd\u4f1a\u5411\u5176\u6240\u6709\u7684\u76f8\u90bb\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5c42\u6b21\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0a\u7ea7\u8282\u70b9\u548c\u4e0b\u7ea7\u8282\u70b9\uff09\u53d1\u9001\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u544a\u77e5\u5f53\u524d\u5b83\u5bf9\u6240\u8ddf\u8e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5ea6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u67092\/3\u7684\u628a\u63e1\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b57\u6bcd\u662fR\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u63a5\u6536\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4\u3001\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4ece\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u4f20\u9012\u5230\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u65b0\u5b83\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u4e0e\u5176\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u548c\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u5927\u5927\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u6570\u91cf\u548c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u6761\u4e3b\u7ebf\uff0c\u987a\u7740\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n1986\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u6885\u5c14\u54c8\u7279\u3001\u6770\u5f17\u91cc\u00b7\u8f9b\u987f\u548c\u7f57\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u201dLearning representations by back-propagating errors\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u8bba\u6587\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u5143\u6837\u7f51\u7edc\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5176\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5f53\u4e0b\u5927\u70ed\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5fc5\u987b\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6731\u8fea\u4e9a\u00b7\u73c0\u5c14\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u56e0\u679c\u5f15\u5165\u6982\u7387\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u800c\u5728\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u539f\u6559\u65e8\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u8f9b\u987f\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4e3b\u5f20\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u591a\u4f59\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6700\u540e<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u672c\u6587\u4ece\u4e00\u9053\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u987a\u7740\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u53c8\u505a\u4e86\u53e6\u5916\u51e0\u9053\u9898\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u6e29\u4e60\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u6ca1\u4e3b\u52a8\u8bb0\u8fc7\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u522b\u592a\u79bb\u8c31\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f88\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u8bd5\u56fe\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u5173\u4f8b\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u6781\u5176\u532e\u4e4f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u201d\uff0c\u6392\u5728\u524d\u9762\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0d\u4ec5\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u9519\u7684\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u81ea\u5a31\u81ea\u4e50\u5730\u5c06\u4e00\u4e9b\u5178\u578b\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u90fd\u4ece\u5934\u6f14\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u53ef\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u63a2\u5bfb\u5176\u795e\u5947\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6587\u7ae0\u592a\u957f\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u6765\u4e0d\u53ca\u5199\u8d1d\u9c81\u7684Turbo\u7801\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u4e5f\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u901a\u8fc7\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7f16\u7801\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5bf9\u5355\u4e00\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u7f16\u7801\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63d0\u4f9b\u591a\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\uff08\u6216\u8fd1\u4f3c\u72ec\u7acb\uff09\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u201c\u72ec\u7acb\u201d\u3002<\/strong>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8bf4\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u72ec\u7acb\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u786e\u5207\u8bf4\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u667a\u529b\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u53ea\u60f3\u641e\u61c2\u5230\u5e95\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8981\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u3001\u54f2\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u5207\u5165\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5957\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7528\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u9690\u55bb\u4eba\u751f\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u662f\u80e1\u8bf4\u516b\u9053\u3002\u672c\u6587\u76ee\u7684\u4ea6\u4e0d\u5728\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u5947\u602a\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u77e5\u4e2d\u524d\u884c\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u7591\u8651\u91cd\u91cd\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6709\u66f4\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4fe1\u8a93\u65e6\u65e6\u7684\u5bb6\u4f19\u6bcf\u6bcf\u603b\u662f\u89c1\u5229\u601d\u8fc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5047\u8bbe\u201c\u73b0\u5b9e\u201d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u3001\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6982\u5ff5\u90fd\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ee4\u4eba\u6210\u4e3a\u865a\u65e0\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u80fd\u591f\u4ee4\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5f88\u6df7\u86cb\uff0c\u4f46\u7adf\u7136\u5982\u6b64\u521a\u521a\u597d\u591f\u6211\u4eec\u751f\u5b58\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u5f88\u6b8b\u5fcd\uff0c\u5374\u603b\u80fd\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u7559\u4e0b\u4e00\u6247\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u672a\u77e5\u4ee4\u4eba\u6050\u60e7\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u5e0c\u671b\u4e0d\u662f\u4ee5\u6982\u7387\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\uff0c\u53c8\u7b97\u5f97\u4e0a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5e0c\u671b\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f60\u770b\uff0c\u4f60\u6211\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5e26\u7740\u4e9b\u8bb8\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5fc5\u629b\u5f03\u7684\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff0c\u5982\u5b69\u5b50\u822c\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n\u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u5f3a\u8c03\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0d\u662f\u9759\u6001\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. \u7b80\u7ea6\u4e0e\u5168\u9762\uff1a\u5965\u5361\u59c6\u5243\u5200\u4e0e\u591a\u7ef4\u8bc1\u4f2a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\u6559\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u590d\u6742\u6027\u548c\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u5ba1\u89c6\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. \u56e0\u679c\u7684\u65b0\u8bed\u8a00\uff1a\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u5de5\u5177<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6. \u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u65cb\u5f8b\uff1a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u548c\u66f4\u65b0<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u5f3a\u8c03\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u901a\u8fc7\u8bd5\u63a2\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u800c\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7. \u667a\u6167\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\uff1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u6216\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8. \u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u8111\u7684\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u7ed3\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9. \u4f60\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4f60\uff1a\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u6743\u91cd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f60\u548c\u8c01\u8fde\u63a5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u201c\u6743\u91cd\u201d\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10. \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53cc\u9762\u6027\uff1a\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0e\u6000\u7591\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u627e\u5e73\u8861<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/strong>\u4e00\u9053\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u9898\u76ee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u67d0\u91cf\u5316\u5de8\u5934\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u9762\u8bd5\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f60\u67092\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5728\u665a\u4e0a\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u662f0.7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4eca\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c2\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u773c\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u662f\u30101-\uff081-0.7)\u76842\u6b21\u65b9\u3011\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u7acb\u5373\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u6211\u30020.7\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662fx\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u5668A\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u30100.7x+0.3\uff081-x\uff09\u3011\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u7684\u624b\u5de5\u89e3\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u63a8\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e24\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u201c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9898\u76ee\u4e2d\u662f\u7f3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bdb\u4f30\u4f30\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u572840%-60%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u4fbf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c1\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5×0.7\u3002\u6b64\u8c13\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u8c13\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u3010\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\/\uff08\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387+\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\u3011<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.5×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.5×0.7+0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f70%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c2\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u738770%\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u672c\u6b21\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7×0.7\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.7×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.7×0.7+\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f84.48%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4ece\u5c0f\u61d2\u5f97\u8bb0\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u540c\u5b66\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\u6211\u4e2d\u5b66\u8003\u8bd5\u65f6\u73b0\u63a8\u516c\u5f0f\u7b54\u5bf9\u6700\u96be\u7684\u7269\u7406\u9898\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u96f6\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5751\u7239\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u5728\u591c\u665a\u8087\u4e8b\u540e\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u84dd\u8272\u4e24\u79cd\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\uff0c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4f4d\u76ee\u51fb\u8bc1\u4eba\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u665a\u8b66\u5bdf\u5728\u6848\u53d1\u5730\u5bf9\u8bc1\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u989c\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u8087\u4e8b\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u65c5\u9014\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u96c6\u4f53\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u770b\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u5c06\u6211\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f41%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u201c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\uff08\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u662f85%\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\uff08\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u786e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u662f15%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u5927\u4e8e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u786e\u5207\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4e0d\u64c5\u957f\u8fd9\u79cd\u62d0\u4e86\u4e00\u9053\u5f2f\u513f\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u8f7b\u89c6\uff1a\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u624b\u5934\u6709\u4e0e\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u7406\u6027\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8fde\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u201c\u6ca1\u641c\u5230\u201d\u7684\u9057\u61be\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u88ab\u6807\u6ce8\u4e3a\u201c\u4e0d\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\uff08\u6848\u4f8b2\uff09<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n2009\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u6cd5\u822a447\u4e0d\u5e78\u5760\u6bc1\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u52a8\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ec5\u53d1\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u6b8b\u9ab8\u788e\u7247\u548c29\u5177\u9047\u96be\u8005\u9057\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u8270\u82e6\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u767b\u573a\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u4e3a\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6551\u63f4\u961f\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\uff0c\u5148\u4ece\u6982\u7387\u6700\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u8fc7\u5f80\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22\u6700\u5927\u6982\u7387\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u793a\u8303\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u672c\u56fe\u6765\u81ea\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u8bd5\u7740\u4e0d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f50%\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f25%\uff08\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u6000\u7591\u6211\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fde\u6211\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u4e49\u51fa\u611a\u8822\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd9\u91cc\u201c\u627e\u6f0f\u4e86\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b25%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8be5\u611a\u8822\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e86B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f37.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u8fd8\u662f\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f12.5%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u768437.5%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5728ABCD\u56db\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u662f\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5A\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u90a337.5%\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0cA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u6570\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a48%\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22A\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u67d0\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9057\u6f0f\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u641c\u7d22\u4e86\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u800c\u4e0d\u5f97\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6309\u7167\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u641c\u6551\u6848\u4f8b\u91cc\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u641c\u7d22\u6b64\u524d\u627e\u8fc7\u4f46\u6ca1\u627e\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6700\u540e\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u7070\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u5728\u300a\u4eba\u751f\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7684Day\u00a01\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7403\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u3002
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u72af\u9519\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u5237\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5929\u8d4b\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u300c\u4eba\u5fc3\u5c31\u5982\u4e00\u5757\u767d\u677f\u300d(Tabula Rasa)\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u89c2\u5ff5\u90fd\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5916\u754c\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6240\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u7701\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u5f97\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201d<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9999\u8549\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89c2\u5ff5\u662f\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u548c\u53cd\u7701\u662f\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5408\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u611f\u89c9\uff08sensation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7269\u523a\u6fc0\u611f\u5b98\uff0c\u611f\u5b98\u88ab\u52a8\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9ec4\u3001\u767d\u3001\u70ed\u3001\u51b7\u3001\u8f6f\u3001\u786c\u3001\u82e6\u3001\u751c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u5207\u6240\u8c13\u53ef\u611f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53cd\u7701\uff08reflection\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u7075\u4e3b\u52a8\u5730\u53cd\u7701\u81ea\u8eab\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u77e5\u89c9\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u6000\u7591\u3001\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3001\u63a8\u8bba\u3001\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3001\u610f\u6b32\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u8d28\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5f62\u5f0f\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u89c2\u5ff5\u201d\u7b49\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u8bb8\u591a\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e2d\u80fd\u591f\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5c31\u50cf\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u7684\u73af\u5883\u91cc\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7b49\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5408\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u63a8\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u548c\u522b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5929\u624d\u822c\u7684\u6726\u80e7\u5947\u601d\u5999\u60f3\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u90fd\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e86\u706b\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u6d1b\u514b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6000\u7591\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4f11\u8c1f\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u800c\u7267\u5e08\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5219\u8bd5\u56fe\u53cd\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u4e0a\u5e1d\u4e0d\u656c\u7684\u5bb6\u4f19\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u6000\u7591\u4e3b\u4e49\u732e\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u795e\u5668\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u6000\u7591\u7684\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u4e3a\u62d0\u6756\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u6760\u7cbe\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f3a\u8c03\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u6240\u6709\u5047\u8bbe\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u6839\u636e\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u8fdb\u884c\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5148\u9a8c\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u76f4\u89c9\u6216\u542f\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201d\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8bed\u5883\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u504f\u5411\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u8005\u7ecf\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u8bd5\u63a2\u6027\uff08tentative\uff09\u7684\u548c\u6982\u7387\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u88ab\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u8bc1\u4f2a\u201d\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n\u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>
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6. \u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u65cb\u5f8b\uff1a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u548c\u66f4\u65b0<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u5f3a\u8c03\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u901a\u8fc7\u8bd5\u63a2\u83b7\u5f97\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u800c\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7. \u667a\u6167\u7684\u8fdb\u5316\uff1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u6216\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8. \u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u8111\u7684\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u7ed3\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9. \u4f60\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4f60\uff1a\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u6743\u91cd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f60\u548c\u8c01\u8fde\u63a5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u201c\u6743\u91cd\u201d\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10. \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53cc\u9762\u6027\uff1a\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0e\u6000\u7591\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u627e\u5e73\u8861<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/strong>\u4e00\u9053\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u9898\u76ee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u67d0\u91cf\u5316\u5de8\u5934\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u9762\u8bd5\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u7b2c2\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u738770%\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u672c\u6b21\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5751\u7239\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u5728\u591c\u665a\u8087\u4e8b\u540e\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u84dd\u8272\u4e24\u79cd\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\uff0c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4f4d\u76ee\u51fb\u8bc1\u4eba\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u665a\u8b66\u5bdf\u5728\u6848\u53d1\u5730\u5bf9\u8bc1\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u989c\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u8087\u4e8b\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u65c5\u9014\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u96c6\u4f53\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u770b\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u5c06\u6211\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f41%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u201c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\uff08\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u662f85%\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\uff08\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u786e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u662f15%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u5927\u4e8e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u786e\u5207\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4e0d\u64c5\u957f\u8fd9\u79cd\u62d0\u4e86\u4e00\u9053\u5f2f\u513f\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u8f7b\u89c6\uff1a\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u624b\u5934\u6709\u4e0e\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u7406\u6027\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u662f\u4e2a\u5927\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5979\u51b7\u6f20\u4e14\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5979\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u65c5\u884c\u8fc7\uff0c\u80fd\u8bf4\u6d41\u5229\u7684\u6cd5\u8bed\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8bed\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u867d\u7136\u804c\u4e1a\u89c4\u5212\u5c1a\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u6280\u827a\u7cbe\u6e5b\u7684\u4e66\u6cd5\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd8\u66fe\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u9996\u5341\u56db\u884c\u8bd7\u9001\u7ed9\u7537\u670b\u53cb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u751f\u65e5\u793c\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u8fd8\u662f\u827a\u672f\u53f2\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\uff1a\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u827a\u672f\u53f2\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c13%\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e3b\u4fee\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\uff08\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u54ea\u91cc\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u67090.08%\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e3b\u4fee\u827a\u672f\u53f2\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f163:1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u5165\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u201c\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\u201d\uff0c\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u65b0\u5947\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u5927\u62db\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e0e\u4f17\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u574f\u4e8b\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u662f\u88ab\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\uff09\u6240\u5e87\u62a4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u60f3\u60f3\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5\u4f46\u4f9d\u7136\u8dcc\u8dcc\u649e\u649e\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u9075\u5faa\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\uff0c\u672c\u5206\u5730\u6d3b\u7740\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u8fd8\u4e0d\u8d56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u95ee\u9898\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5e73\u5e38\u5730\u6d3b\u7740\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u5e38\u8bc6\u201d\u5f80\u5f80\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u533b\u5b66\u754c\u6709\u53e5\u683c\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u4f60\u542c\u5230\u9a6c\u8e44\u58f0\u65f6\uff0c\u60f3\u60f3\u9a6c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6591\u9a6c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201d\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u66fe\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u505a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8f66\u3002\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u522b\u7684\u4ec0\u4e48\u82b1\u91cc\u80e1\u54e8\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u539f\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u795e\u533b\uff0c\u5230\u5904\u627e\u6210\u529f\u5b66\u7684\u504f\u65b9\uff0c\u4e00\u5fc3\u618b\u5927\u62db\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u667a\u6167\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u201c\u6bd4\u7387\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cc\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u6d89\u53ca\u201c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u4f8b\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u611f\u77e5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u85aa\u6c34\u7684\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e0e\u540c\u4e8b\u6216\u540c\u884c\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53c8\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8eab\u4f53\u611f\u89c9\u7684\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6e29\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u590d\u6742\u4e00\u70b9\u513f\uff0c\u6765\u770b\u770b1964\u5e74\u5965\u65af\u672c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5316\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5b50\u201c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\uff08\u60ac\u6d6e\u5728\u6db2\u4f53\u6216\u6c14\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u5fae\u7c92\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6c38\u4e0d\u4f11\u6b62\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u201c\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u201d\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u7279\u522b\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u80a1\u4ef7\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8bf4\u8bf4\u6bd4\u7387\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u96e8\u4f1e\u4e0b\u300b\u8bb2\u4e86\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f5c\u8005\u548c\u670b\u53cb\u73a9\u513f\u7ade\u731c\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5730\u7403\u548c\u6708\u7403\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u591a\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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1968\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6838\u6f5c\u8247\u5728\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u4e9a\u901f\u6d77\u6d77\u57df\u5931\u8e2a\u4e86\uff0c\u6f5c\u8247\u4e0a\u768499\u540d\u6d77\u519b\u5b98\u5175\u5168\u90e8\u6773\u65e0\u97f3\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u5927\u6d77\u635e\u9488\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\uff08\u6848\u4f8b2\uff09<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n2009\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u6cd5\u822a447\u4e0d\u5e78\u5760\u6bc1\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u52a8\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ec5\u53d1\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u6b8b\u9ab8\u788e\u7247\u548c29\u5177\u9047\u96be\u8005\u9057\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n- \u4e3a\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u793a\u8303\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u8bd5\u7740\u4e0d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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1\u3001\u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u6000\u7591\u6211\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fde\u6211\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u4e49\u51fa\u611a\u8822\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd9\u91cc\u201c\u627e\u6f0f\u4e86\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b25%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8be5\u611a\u8822\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e86B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f37.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u8fd8\u662f\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f12.5%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u768437.5%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5728ABCD\u56db\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u662f\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5A\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u90a337.5%\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0cA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u6570\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a48%\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22A\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u67d0\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9057\u6f0f\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u641c\u7d22\u4e86\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u800c\u4e0d\u5f97\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6309\u7167\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u641c\u6551\u6848\u4f8b\u91cc\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u641c\u7d22\u6b64\u524d\u627e\u8fc7\u4f46\u6ca1\u627e\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6700\u540e\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u7070\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u5728\u300a\u4eba\u751f\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7684Day\u00a01\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7403\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u3002
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u72af\u9519\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u5237\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n\u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u6559\u4f1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u9010\u6e10\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u6216\u6700\u4f18\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8. \u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0e\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u8111\u7684\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f51\u7edc\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u8054\u7ed3\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u601d\u7ef4\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9. \u4f60\u7684\u8fde\u63a5\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4f60\uff1a\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u6743\u91cd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f60\u548c\u8c01\u8fde\u63a5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fde\u63a5\u7684\u201c\u6743\u91cd\u201d\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10. \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53cc\u9762\u6027\uff1a\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0e\u6000\u7591\u4e4b\u95f4\u5bfb\u627e\u5e73\u8861<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/strong>\u4e00\u9053\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u9898\u76ee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u67d0\u91cf\u5316\u5de8\u5934\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u9762\u8bd5\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f60\u67092\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5728\u665a\u4e0a\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u662f0.7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4eca\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c2\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u773c\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u662f\u30101-\uff081-0.7)\u76842\u6b21\u65b9\u3011\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u7acb\u5373\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u6211\u30020.7\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662fx\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u5668A\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u30100.7x+0.3\uff081-x\uff09\u3011\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u7684\u624b\u5de5\u89e3\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u63a8\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e24\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u201c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9898\u76ee\u4e2d\u662f\u7f3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bdb\u4f30\u4f30\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u572840%-60%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u4fbf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c1\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5×0.7\u3002\u6b64\u8c13\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u8c13\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u3010\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\/\uff08\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387+\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\u3011<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.5×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.5×0.7+0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f70%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c2\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u738770%\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u672c\u6b21\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7×0.7\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.7×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.7×0.7+\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f84.48%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4ece\u5c0f\u61d2\u5f97\u8bb0\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u540c\u5b66\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\u6211\u4e2d\u5b66\u8003\u8bd5\u65f6\u73b0\u63a8\u516c\u5f0f\u7b54\u5bf9\u6700\u96be\u7684\u7269\u7406\u9898\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u96f6\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5751\u7239\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u5728\u591c\u665a\u8087\u4e8b\u540e\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u84dd\u8272\u4e24\u79cd\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\uff0c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4f4d\u76ee\u51fb\u8bc1\u4eba\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u665a\u8b66\u5bdf\u5728\u6848\u53d1\u5730\u5bf9\u8bc1\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u989c\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u8087\u4e8b\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u65c5\u9014\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u96c6\u4f53\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u770b\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u5c06\u6211\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f41%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u201c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u6bcf\u6b21\u5bfb\u627e\u65f6\uff0c\u5148\u6311\u9009\u6574\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u5185\u6f5c\u8247\u5b58\u5728\u6982\u7387\u503c\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u88ab\u641c\u7d22\u540e\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u6f5c\u8247\u7684\u8e2a\u8ff9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6309\u7167\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u6f5c\u8247\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\u5219\u4f1a\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u724c\u201d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u641c\u5bfb\u8239\u53ea\u5c31\u4f1a\u9a76\u5411\u65b0\u7684\u201c\u6700\u53ef\u7591\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u627e\u5230\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8fde\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u201c\u6ca1\u641c\u5230\u201d\u7684\u9057\u61be\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u88ab\u6807\u6ce8\u4e3a\u201c\u4e0d\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\uff08\u6848\u4f8b2\uff09<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n2009\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u6cd5\u822a447\u4e0d\u5e78\u5760\u6bc1\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u52a8\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ec5\u53d1\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u6b8b\u9ab8\u788e\u7247\u548c29\u5177\u9047\u96be\u8005\u9057\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u8270\u82e6\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u767b\u573a\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u4e3a\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6551\u63f4\u961f\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\uff0c\u5148\u4ece\u6982\u7387\u6700\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u8fc7\u5f80\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22\u6700\u5927\u6982\u7387\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u793a\u8303\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u672c\u56fe\u6765\u81ea\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u8bd5\u7740\u4e0d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f50%\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f25%\uff08\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u6000\u7591\u6211\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fde\u6211\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u4e49\u51fa\u611a\u8822\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd9\u91cc\u201c\u627e\u6f0f\u4e86\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b25%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8be5\u611a\u8822\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e86B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f37.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u8fd8\u662f\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f12.5%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u768437.5%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5728ABCD\u56db\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n- \u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5929\u8d4b\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u300c\u4eba\u5fc3\u5c31\u5982\u4e00\u5757\u767d\u677f\u300d(Tabula Rasa)\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u89c2\u5ff5\u90fd\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5916\u754c\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6240\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u7701\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u5f97\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201d<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9999\u8549\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89c2\u5ff5\u662f\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u548c\u53cd\u7701\u662f\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5408\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u611f\u89c9\uff08sensation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7269\u523a\u6fc0\u611f\u5b98\uff0c\u611f\u5b98\u88ab\u52a8\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9ec4\u3001\u767d\u3001\u70ed\u3001\u51b7\u3001\u8f6f\u3001\u786c\u3001\u82e6\u3001\u751c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u5207\u6240\u8c13\u53ef\u611f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53cd\u7701\uff08reflection\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u7075\u4e3b\u52a8\u5730\u53cd\u7701\u81ea\u8eab\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u77e5\u89c9\u3001\u601d\u60f3\u3001\u6000\u7591\u3001\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3001\u63a8\u8bba\u3001\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3001\u610f\u6b32\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5fc3\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u8fd8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u8d28\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5f62\u5f0f\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u89c2\u5ff5\u201d\u7b49\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u611f\u77e5\u7684\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u8bb8\u591a\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u4e2d\u80fd\u591f\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5c31\u50cf\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u7684\u73af\u5883\u91cc\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7b49\u7b80\u5355\u89c2\u5ff5\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5408\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u63a8\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6d1b\u514b\u548c\u522b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u5929\u624d\u822c\u7684\u6726\u80e7\u5947\u601d\u5999\u60f3\uff0c\u4e3a\u540e\u6765\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u90fd\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e86\u706b\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u6d1b\u514b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6000\u7591\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u4f11\u8c1f\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n\u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>
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\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5751\u7239\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u5728\u591c\u665a\u8087\u4e8b\u540e\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u84dd\u8272\u4e24\u79cd\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\uff0c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4f4d\u76ee\u51fb\u8bc1\u4eba\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u665a\u8b66\u5bdf\u5728\u6848\u53d1\u5730\u5bf9\u8bc1\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u989c\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u8087\u4e8b\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u65c5\u9014\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u96c6\u4f53\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u770b\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u5c06\u6211\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f41%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u201c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\uff08\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u662f85%\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\uff08\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u786e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u662f15%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u5927\u4e8e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u786e\u5207\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4e0d\u64c5\u957f\u8fd9\u79cd\u62d0\u4e86\u4e00\u9053\u5f2f\u513f\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u7684\u8f7b\u89c6\uff1a\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u624b\u5934\u6709\u4e0e\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u7406\u6027\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e3e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u662f\u4e2a\u5927\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u670b\u53cb\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5979\u51b7\u6f20\u4e14\u654f\u611f\u3002\u5979\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u65c5\u884c\u8fc7\uff0c\u80fd\u8bf4\u6d41\u5229\u7684\u6cd5\u8bed\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8bed\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u867d\u7136\u804c\u4e1a\u89c4\u5212\u5c1a\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u6280\u827a\u7cbe\u6e5b\u7684\u4e66\u6cd5\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd8\u66fe\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u9996\u5341\u56db\u884c\u8bd7\u9001\u7ed9\u7537\u670b\u53cb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u751f\u65e5\u793c\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u8fd8\u662f\u827a\u672f\u53f2\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\uff1a\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u827a\u672f\u53f2\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c13%\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e3b\u4fee\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\uff08\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u54ea\u91cc\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u67090.08%\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e3b\u4fee\u827a\u672f\u53f2\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f163:1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f69\u5185\u6d1b\u666e\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u5165\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u201c\u523b\u677f\u5370\u8c61\u201d\uff0c\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u65b0\u5947\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u5927\u62db\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e0e\u4f17\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e78\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u574f\u4e8b\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u662f\u88ab\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\uff09\u6240\u5e87\u62a4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u60f3\u60f3\u770b\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5\u4f46\u4f9d\u7136\u8dcc\u8dcc\u649e\u649e\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u9075\u5faa\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\uff0c\u672c\u5206\u5730\u6d3b\u7740\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u8fd8\u4e0d\u8d56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u95ee\u9898\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5e73\u5e38\u5730\u6d3b\u7740\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201c\u5e38\u8bc6\u201d\u5f80\u5f80\u5f88\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u533b\u5b66\u754c\u6709\u53e5\u683c\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u4f60\u542c\u5230\u9a6c\u8e44\u58f0\u65f6\uff0c\u60f3\u60f3\u9a6c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6591\u9a6c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201d\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9a6c\u65af\u514b\u66fe\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u7279\u65af\u62c9\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u505a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8f66\u3002\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u522b\u7684\u4ec0\u4e48\u82b1\u91cc\u80e1\u54e8\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u539f\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u795e\u533b\uff0c\u5230\u5904\u627e\u6210\u529f\u5b66\u7684\u504f\u65b9\uff0c\u4e00\u5fc3\u618b\u5927\u62db\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u667a\u6167\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u201c\u6bd4\u7387\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cc\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u6d89\u53ca\u201c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u4eba\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6bd4\u4f8b\u52a8\u7269\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u611f\u77e5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u6bd4\u8f83\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5bf9\u85aa\u6c34\u7684\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e0e\u540c\u4e8b\u6216\u540c\u884c\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u53c8\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8eab\u4f53\u611f\u89c9\u7684\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6e29\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u590d\u6742\u4e00\u70b9\u513f\uff0c\u6765\u770b\u770b1964\u5e74\u5965\u65af\u672c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u201c\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u7406\u8bba\u201d\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5316\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5b50\u201c\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u201d\uff08\u60ac\u6d6e\u5728\u6db2\u4f53\u6216\u6c14\u4f53\u4e2d\u7684\u5fae\u7c92\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6c38\u4e0d\u4f11\u6b62\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u201c\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u201d\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u7279\u522b\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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1968\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6838\u6f5c\u8247\u5728\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u4e9a\u901f\u6d77\u6d77\u57df\u5931\u8e2a\u4e86\uff0c\u6f5c\u8247\u4e0a\u768499\u540d\u6d77\u519b\u5b98\u5175\u5168\u90e8\u6773\u65e0\u97f3\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u5927\u6d77\u635e\u9488\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u9996\u5148\uff0c<\/strong>\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u5217\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u80fd\u591f\u89e3\u91ca\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u63a5\u7740\uff0c<\/strong>\u4ed6\u7ec4\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u56ca\u62ec\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u63d0\u4f9b\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u573a\u666f\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982<\/strong>\u7387\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u518d\u800c<\/strong>\uff0c\u5c06\u5404\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u7efc\u5408\u5230\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5f2020\u82f1\u91cc\u6d77\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u56fe\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u6d77\u57df\u88ab\u5212\u5206\u6210\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4e2a\u5c0f\u683c\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5c0f\u683c\u5b50\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u503cp\u548cq\uff0cp\u662f\u6f5c\u8247\u8eba\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u91cc\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0cq\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6f5c\u8247\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u91cc\uff0c\u5b83\u88ab\u641c\u7d22\u5230\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6bcf\u6b21\u5bfb\u627e\u65f6\uff0c\u5148\u6311\u9009\u6574\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u5185\u6f5c\u8247\u5b58\u5728\u6982\u7387\u503c\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u88ab\u641c\u7d22\u540e\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\u6f5c\u8247\u7684\u8e2a\u8ff9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6309\u7167\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u6f5c\u8247\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\u5219\u4f1a\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u724c\u201d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u641c\u5bfb\u8239\u53ea\u5c31\u4f1a\u9a76\u5411\u65b0\u7684\u201c\u6700\u53ef\u7591\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u8fdb\u884c\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u627e\u5230\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u514b\u96f7\u6587\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u641c\u7d22\u201c\u8fde\u7eed\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u201c\u6ca1\u641c\u5230\u201d\u7684\u9057\u61be\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u88ab\u6807\u6ce8\u4e3a\u201c\u4e0d\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u66f4\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\uff08\u6848\u4f8b2\uff09<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n2009\u5e745\u670831\u65e5\u665a10\u70b9\uff0c\u6cd5\u822a447\u4e0d\u5e78\u5760\u6bc1\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u52a8\u7528\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ec5\u53d1\u73b0\u5c11\u91cf\u6b8b\u9ab8\u788e\u7247\u548c29\u5177\u9047\u96be\u8005\u9057\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u968f\u540e\u4e24\u5e74\u7684\u8270\u82e6\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u83b7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u767b\u573a\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u4e3a\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b66\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6574\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u5404\u79cd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e8b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u201c\u683c\u5b50\u201d\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6551\u63f4\u961f\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\uff0c\u5148\u4ece\u6982\u7387\u6700\u5927\u7684\u533a\u57df\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u8fc7\u5f80\u6570\u636e\u57fa\u7840\u4e4b\u4e0a\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22\u6700\u5927\u6982\u7387\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b80\u5355\u793a\u8303\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uff08\u672c\u56fe\u6765\u81ea\u300a\u79d1\u5b66\u4e16\u754c\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u8bd5\u7740\u4e0d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u7528\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f50%\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e4b\u540e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f25%\uff08\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e5f\u6000\u7591\u6211\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u201d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fde\u6211\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6000\u7591\u4e5f\u662f\u6000\u7591\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u611a\u8822\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5b9a\u4e49\u51fa\u611a\u8822\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fd9\u91cc\u201c\u627e\u6f0f\u4e86\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e4b25%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8be5\u611a\u8822\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u667a\u6167\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u641c\u7d22\u4e86B\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u7684\u786e\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f37.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u8fd8\u662f\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u4f46\u662f\u88ab\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f12.5%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728B\u533a\u57df\u768437.5%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5728ABCD\u56db\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u57fa\u6570\u662f\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5A\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u56e0\u4e3a\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u90a337.5%\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0cA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u6570\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a48%\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22A\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u67d0\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9057\u6f0f\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u641c\u7d22\u4e86\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u800c\u4e0d\u5f97\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6309\u7167\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u641c\u6551\u6848\u4f8b\u91cc\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u641c\u7d22\u6b64\u524d\u627e\u8fc7\u4f46\u6ca1\u627e\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6700\u540e\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u7070\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- \u201c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u662f\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- \u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u53c8\u53d8\u6210\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u5728\u300a\u4eba\u751f\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7684Day\u00a01\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7403\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u3002
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u72af\u9519\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u5237\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\n\n\n\n\u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>
<\/strong>\u4e00\u9053\u597d\u73a9\u513f\u7684\u9898\u76ee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u636e\u8bf4\u662f\u6d77\u5916\u67d0\u91cf\u5316\u5de8\u5934\u7684\u4e00\u9053\u9762\u8bd5\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f60\u67092\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5728\u665a\u4e0a\u4f1a\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6839\u636e\u5386\u53f2\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u90fd\u662f0.7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4eca\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c2\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\uff0c\u90fd\u663e\u793a\u201c\u6da8\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b2c\u4e00\u773c\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u662f\u30101-\uff081-0.7)\u76842\u6b21\u65b9\u3011\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u7acb\u5373\u7ea0\u6b63\u4e86\u6211\u30020.7\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5982\u679c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662fx\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u5668A\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u30100.7x+0.3\uff081-x\uff09\u3011\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u63a8\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e24\u6b21\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e24\u6b21\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u201c\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9898\u76ee\u4e2d\u662f\u7f3a\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bdb\u4f30\u4f30\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u572840%-60%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e3a\u4e86\u7b80\u4fbf\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b2c1\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5×0.7\u3002\u6b64\u8c13\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u8c13\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u3010\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387\/\uff08\u51fb\u4e2d\u7387+\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\u3011<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.5×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.5×0.7+0.5x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f70%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b2c2\u6b65<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u738770%\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u672c\u6b21\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u662f0.7\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7×0.7\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u6da8\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u8be5\u66f4\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\uff09\u662f\uff080.7×0.7\uff09\/\u30100.7×0.7+\uff081-0.7\uff09x\uff081-0.7\uff09\u3011\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u662f84.48%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5982\u4e0a\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7528\u96f6\u516c\u5f0f\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6211\u4ece\u5c0f\u61d2\u5f97\u8bb0\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u540c\u5b66\u8fd8\u8bb0\u5f97\u6211\u4e2d\u5b66\u8003\u8bd5\u65f6\u73b0\u63a8\u516c\u5f0f\u7b54\u5bf9\u6700\u96be\u7684\u7269\u7406\u9898\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u96f6\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4f46\u516c\u5f0f\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u518d\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u7528\u4e0d\u7740\u8bb0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u7740\u7528\u516c\u5f0f\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8bb0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u660e\u5929\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6B\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56681\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6C\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u56682\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5df2\u77e5\uff1a\u00a0P(B|A) = P(C|A) = 0.7 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.7\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n P(B|\u00acA) = P(C|\u00acA) = 0.3 \uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0d\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f0.3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627e\u7684\u662fP(A|B\u2229C)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u6da8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5f53\u4e24\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u660e\u5929\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6da8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u7ea60.845\u621684.5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6781\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u5176\u620f\u5f04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8111\u7b4b\u6025\u8f6c\u5f2f\u4e86\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u5728\u591c\u665a\u8087\u4e8b\u540e\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u6709\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u84dd\u8272\u4e24\u79cd\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\uff0c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e00\u4f4d\u76ee\u51fb\u8bc1\u4eba\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u665a\u8b66\u5bdf\u5728\u6848\u53d1\u5730\u5bf9\u8bc1\u4eba\u7684\u8bc1\u8bcd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u80fd\u591f\u8fa8\u8ba4\u51fa\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u989c\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u8087\u4e8b\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6211\u6700\u65e9\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u65c5\u9014\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u96c6\u4f53\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u9002\u5408\u5728\u5927\u5df4\u4e0a\u770b\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9053\u9898\u5c06\u6211\u5e26\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f41%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u201c\u8be5\u57ce\u5e02\u7ea2\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u536085%\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\uff08\u8bef\u62a5\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f20%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6bd4\u7387\u662f85%\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\uff08\u547d\u4e2d\u7387\uff09\uff1a<\/strong>\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u88ab\u786e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f80%\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u662f15%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u5927\u4e8e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u786e\u5207\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u4e0d\u64c5\u957f\u8fd9\u79cd\u62d0\u4e86\u4e00\u9053\u5f2f\u513f\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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30%\u2797\uff0830%+12.5%+5%+15%\uff09\u2716\ufe0f37.5%\u00a0=\u00a00.18<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u540eA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff080.3+0.18=0.48\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u65f6\uff0cA\u533a\u57df\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u6570\u503c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e3a48%\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u641c\u6551\u4eba\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u641c\u7d22A\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u67d0\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9057\u6f0f\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u641c\u7d22\u4e86\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u800c\u4e0d\u5f97\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6309\u7167\u6e38\u620f\u89c4\u5219\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u641c\u6551\u6848\u4f8b\u91cc\uff0c\u7684\u786e\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u66f4\u65b0\u540e\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u53bb\u641c\u7d22\u6b64\u524d\u627e\u8fc7\u4f46\u6ca1\u627e\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u6700\u540e\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff0c\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u201d\u662f\u7070\u5ea6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6211\u5728\u300a\u4eba\u751f\u7b97\u6cd5\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u98de\u8f6e\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7684Day\u00a01\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5237\u65b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u65e0\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u7403\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u903b\u8f91\u3002 \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\u4fdd\u7559\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u72af\u9519\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7b97\u6cd5\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u67d0\u79cd\u6760\u6746\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u903c\u8fd1\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u88ab\u201c\u6d17\u5237\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6709\u4eba\u628a\u5929\u874e\u53f7\u6f5c\u8247\u6848\u4f8b\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u8bd5\u9519\u6cd5\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u8fd8\u56e0\u4e3a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0eAI\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u9053\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e861000\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5982\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\uff1a\u5f62\u72b6\u3001\u5473\u9053\u3001\u989c\u8272\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\uff1a\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u3001\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8bf7\u95ee\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\uff0c\u8bf7\u95ee\u8be5\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ece\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c34\u679c\u4e2d\uff0c50%\u662f\u9999\u8549\uff0c30%\u662f\u82f9\u679c\uff0c20%\u662f\u68a8\u5b50\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u9999\u8549) = 0.5\uff0cP(\u82f9\u679c) = 0.3\uff0cP(\u68a8\u5b50) = 0.2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2\u3001500\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u4e2d\uff0c400\u4e2a\uff0880%\uff09\u662f\u957f\u7684\uff0c350\u4e2a\uff0870%\uff09\u662f\u751c\u7684\uff0c450\u4e2a\uff0890%\uff09\u662f\u9ec4\u7684\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cP(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8\uff0cP(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) = 0.7\uff0cP(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u522b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u201c\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u67d0\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u82f9\u679c\u3001\u9999\u8549\u6216\u68a8\u5b50\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u9999\u8549\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a\u200d\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n P(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549)\/ P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549)\u00a0\u00a0= P(\u957f|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u751c|\u9999\u8549) * P(\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) = 0.8*0.7*0.9 = 0.504\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u518d\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u8ba1\u7b97P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) \uff0cP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) \u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff1aP(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = \u00a0P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u9999\u8549) P(\u9999\u8549) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u82f9\u679c) P(\u82f9\u679c) + P(\u957f\u751c\u9ec4|\u68a8\u5b50) P(\u68a8\u5b50)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e8e\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\uff1aP(\u9999\u8549|\u957f\u751c\u9ec4) = 93%<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ece\u4eba\u7c7b\u7406\u89e3\u5916\u90e8\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5e38\u8bc6\u6765\u770b\u4e5f\u65e0\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u7ed5\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u72af\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4e00\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u6765\u81ea\u00a03Blue1Brown\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n 1\u3001\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u6c34\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\u95f4\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u9999\u8549\u548c\u82f9\u679c\u5206\u522b\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d\u200d\u200d3<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3\u3001\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3\u4fa7\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7b26\u5408\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u200d\u200d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5443\uff0c\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4ece\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u611f\u53d7\u5230\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5173\u4e8e\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u90a3\u4e48\u5bb9\u6613\u56e0\u4e3a\u5206\u5b50\u548c\u5206\u6bcd\u7684\u53d8\u6362\u800c\u88ab\u7ed5\u6655\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u9898\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u957f\u3001\u751c\u3001\u9ec4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u90fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9999\u8549\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5e94\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6cd5\u5219\u6765\u201c\u5408\u5e76\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u5173\u7cfb\u592a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u201dNaive\u201d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u300a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u65f6\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5206\u7c7b\u5668(Bayesian classifier)\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6709\u70b9\u7c97\u5fc3\u7684\u7528\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u79f0\u5176\u4e3a\u50bb\u74dc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af(idiot Bayes)\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6734\u7d20\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7cfb\u7edf\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6761\u4ef6\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8be5\u4e66\u63d0\u53ca\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u770b\u4f3c\u590d\u6742\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8868\u8ff0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u903b\u8f91\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6839\u636e\u7279\u5f81\u8bc6\u522b\u6c34\u679c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6d1b\u514b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u5929\u8d4b\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u300c\u4eba\u5fc3\u5c31\u5982\u4e00\u5757\u767d\u677f\u300d(Tabula Rasa)\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u89c2\u5ff5\u90fd\u8d77\u6e90\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5916\u754c\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6240\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u7701\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u5f97\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201d<\/strong>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u9999\u8549\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6d1b\u514b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u89c2\u5ff5\u662f\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u548c\u53cd\u7701\u662f\u89c2\u5ff5\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5408\u79f0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u611f\u89c9\uff08sensation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7269\u523a\u6fc0\u611f\u5b98\uff0c\u611f\u5b98\u88ab\u52a8\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u89c2\u5ff5\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u9ec4\u3001\u767d\u3001\u70ed\u3001\u51b7\u3001\u8f6f\u3001\u786c\u3001\u82e6\u3001\u751c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u5207\u6240\u8c13\u53ef\u611f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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3\u3001\u4ee5\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff08\u6216\u89c2\u5bdf\uff09\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5b9e\u9a8c\u548c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6307\u5bfc\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u201c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u201d\u3001\u201c\u65b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u201d\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5c06\u65b0\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a8\u65ad\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n ChatGPT\u7684\u80dc\u5229\uff0c\u8ba9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u611f\u6168\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49\u518d\u6b21\u5c06\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\u7529\u5230\u4e86\u540e\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u7406\u6027\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u72ed\u4e49\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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2\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u90fd\u4f1a\u5411\u5176\u6240\u6709\u7684\u76f8\u90bb\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5c42\u6b21\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0a\u7ea7\u8282\u70b9\u548c\u4e0b\u7ea7\u8282\u70b9\uff09\u53d1\u9001\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u544a\u77e5\u5f53\u524d\u5b83\u5bf9\u6240\u8ddf\u8e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u5ea6\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u67092\/3\u7684\u628a\u63e1\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b57\u6bcd\u662fR\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3\u3001\u63a5\u6536\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u9012\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e24\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5904\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4\u3001\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4ece\u7236\u8282\u70b9\u4f20\u9012\u5230\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u7684\uff0c\u5219\u5b50\u8282\u70b9\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u65b0\u5b83\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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\u4f60\u770b\uff0c\u4f60\u6211\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5e26\u7740\u4e9b\u8bb8\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5fc5\u629b\u5f03\u7684\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff0c\u5982\u5b69\u5b50\u822c\u524d\u884c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5b64\u72ec\u5927\u8111 2023-10-15 12:38<\/em>\u00a0\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u52a0\u62ff\u5927<\/em>\u6211\u7684\u624b\u5de5\u89e3\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u201c\u6bd4\u7387\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/superay-1252377195.cos.ap-nanjing.myqcloud.com\/btccccccc\/20231207v11.jpg\")
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<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3b\u4e49<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/superay-1252377195.cos.ap-nanjing.myqcloud.com\/btccccccc\/20231207v20.jpg\")
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