{"id":6513,"date":"2023-11-10T14:38:31","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T06:38:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.btccccc.cc\/?p=6513"},"modified":"2023-11-10T14:38:31","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T06:38:31","slug":"%e7%8c%a9%e7%8c%a9%e7%9a%84%e9%a3%9e%e9%95%96%e4%b8%8e%e6%8b%89%e6%99%ae%e6%8b%89%e6%96%af%e4%b9%8b%e5%a6%96%ef%bc%9a%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%98%af%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e7%9a%84%e5%90%97-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=6513","title":{"rendered":"\u7329\u7329\u7684\u98de\u9556\u4e0e\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u4e4b\u5996\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5417\uff1f\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/5e58a6fef647493fb06e7118152d9848.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/5e58a6fef647493fb06e7118152d9848.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\u2026\u2026\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u8bef\u8bfb\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014\u2014\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\uff08\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff09\u5b9a\u4e49\u201c\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3001\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u641e\u5f97\u597d\u50cf\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u4e4b\u540e\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5f3a\u52b2\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u9a6c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u800c\u5b9b\u5982\u4e00\u79cd\u53d8\u6001\u7684\u9ed1\u5e7d\u9ed8\uff0c\u5728\u547d\u8fd0\u4e0d\u7f81\u800c\u53c8\u5632\u8bbd\u7684\u773c\u795e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u54e5\u4fe9\u7ad9\u5728\u4e86\u540c\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u7684\u9886\u5956\u53f0\u4e0a\uff0c\u5206\u4eab\u6842\u51a0\uff0c\u9762\u9762\u76f8\u89d1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/c49c0efd6b454247bd3764e18c87d1bd.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/c49c0efd6b454247bd3764e18c87d1bd.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u6587<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u258c\u4e00\u3001\u6df7\u6c8c\u554a\u6df7\u6c8c\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u6df7\u6c8c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u4e0d\u8bf4\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u53d8\u91cf\u98ce\u4e91\u8be1\u8c32\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u5176\u6f14\u53d8\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u80fd\u540c\u610f\u4e00\u822c\u6700\u51c6\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u65e5\u548c\u6b21\u65e5\u7684\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u4e94\u5929\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u672c\u9760\u4eba\u54c1\uff0c\u5341\u5929\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u57fa\u672c\u9760\u5386\u53f2\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5df2\u7136\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u9884\u6d4b\u754c\u7684\u5b66\u9738\u4e86\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u786e\u5b9e\u65b9\u4fbf\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u4e13\u95e8\u4e00\u4e2a\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u62a5\u5929\u6c14\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\u9884\u6d4b\u5730\u9707\uff0c\u7b80\u76f4\u60e8\u4e0d\u5fcd\u7779\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u795e\u68cd\u5b66\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5df2\u63a5\u53d7\u5730\u9707\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u8d28\u8c03\u67e5\u5c40\uff08USGS\uff09\u5bf9\u4e8e\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u5730\u9707\u5417\u201d 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u518d\u6765\u770b\u770b\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e43\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5929\u654c\uff0c\u89c1\u4e00\u6b21\u8650\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5982\u4eca\u8c08\u8d77\u975e\u5178\u3001\u624e\u5361\u3001\u4f0a\u6ce2\u62c9\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u5a46\u5a11\u53d1\u6296\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u60b2\u5929\u60af\u4eba\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u603b\u60f3\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5f00\u53d1\u7f72\uff08USAID\uff09\u8017\u8d44\u4e00\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u641e\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ebPREDICT\uff08\u9884\u8a00\uff09\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4eba\u7c7b\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u4e861000\u591a\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u770b\u4f3c\u6210\u7ee9\u6590\u7136\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ca6\u9677\u4e8e\u6c6a\u6d0b\u5927\u6d77\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u6218\u4e89\u4e4b\u4e2d \u2014\u2014\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u5927\u6982\u662f4000\u591a\u79cd\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u6709\u51e0\u767e\u4e07\u79cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u91cc\u9762\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5f88\u5c0f\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u80fd\u4ece\u52a8\u7269\u8eab\u4e0a\u8fc1\u8dc3\u5230\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u2026\u2026\u6240\u4ee5\u65f6\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ecd\u666e\u904d\u540c\u610f\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u95f4\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u70b9\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u770b\u5929\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u603b\u4e4b\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u91cf\u5b50\u7269\u7406\u4e00\u4ee3\u5b97\u5e08\u5c3c\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u6ce2\u5c14\uff08Niels Bohr\uff09\u4e00\u7740\u6025\u8bf4\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e00\u53e5\u6709\u70b9\u4e0d\u7740\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u620f\u8bed\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5f53\u4f60\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u662f\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u258c\u4e8c\u3001 \u7329\u7329\u7684\u98de\u9556\u4e0e\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u5996<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5c1a\u4e14\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u6587\u793e\u4f1a\u9886\u57df\u90a3\u66f4\u662f\u4e00\u584c\u7cca\u6d82\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300a\u8d85\u9884\u6d4b\u300b\uff08Superforecasting\uff09\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6559\u6388\u83f2\u5229\u666e\u00b7\u6cf0\u6d1b\u514b(Philip Tetlock) \u66fe\u82b1\u4e86\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8fd1\u4e09\u767e\u4e2a\u793e\u79d1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u5927\u5e08\u2014\u2014\u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u5458\u3001\u653f\u7ecf\u5b66\u8005\u3001\u56fd\u9632\u4e13\u5bb6\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u5411\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6837\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u9009\u4e3e\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u60a8\u89c9\u5f97\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eca\u540e\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u653f\u6743\u6027\u8d28\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\uff1f\u5df4\u897f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u591a\u6570\u515a\u4e0b\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u8bf8\u5982\u6b64\u7c7b\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u5f88\u76f4\u767d\u2014\u2014\u8fd8\u662f\u5e94\u4e86\u90a3\u4e2a\u61a8\u6001\u53ef\u63ac\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u2014\u2014\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7cbe\u51c6\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5982\u7329\u7329\u6254\u98de\u9556\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e00\u5f8b\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u6728\u6709\u6539\u53d8\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u51a5\u601d\u82e6\u60f3\u3002\u4f46\u8bdd\u53c8\u8bf4\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u51c6\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u2014\u2014\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u786e\u5b9e\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f\u4e13\u5bb6\u5f88\u6c34\u3002\u6211\u662f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u524d\u8005\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300a\u8d85\u9884\u6d4b\u300b\u91cc\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6cf0\u6d1b\u53ef\u540c\u6837\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u6765\u505a\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u52a0\u7a00\u70c2\uff0c\u8fd9\u591a\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u660e\u4e13\u5bb6\u672a\u5fc5\u6c34\u3002\u67d0\u4e00\u4ef6\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u975e\u8981\u53bb\u627e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u54a8\u8be2\uff0c\u6211\u8fd8\u662f\u66f4\u613f\u610f\u53bb\u627e\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53bb\u627e\u6c11\u79d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u5916\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u70b9\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1. \u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u5982\u7329\u7329\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u5982\u7329\u7329\uff0c\u91cc\u9762\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u5927\u795e\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u6781\u5f3a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u6c34\u5e73\u9ad8\u8fd8\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u597d\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u53cd\u4eba\u6027\u7684\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7761\u7740\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5934\u653e\u8fdb\u706b\u7089\u3001\u811a\u6d78\u5165\u51b0\u6c34\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u7761\u5f97\u5f88\u8212\u670d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e73\u5747\u6e29\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u5b9c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2.\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u8f83\u4e3a\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4f46\u65f6\u95f4\u4e00\u957f\u7cbe\u5ea6\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5728\u4e09\u81f3\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u5c31\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u7329\u7329\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u65f6\u5e38\u4e0d\u5982\u5927\u7329\u7329\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e4b\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e00\u62f3\u53c8\u4e00\u62f3\u6376\u5728\u7ecf\u5178\u79d1\u5b66\u9762\u95e8\u4e0a\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u60ca\u6089\u5929\u5450\u6211\u4eec\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u7bb1\u91cc\u3002\u66fe\u51e0\u4f55\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e50\u89c2\u8c6a\u8fc8\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u4e00\u53ea\u8fd0\u884c\u4e25\u5bc6\u7684\u8868\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u4eec\u6355\u6089\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u77e5\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u76ae\u57c3\u5c14\u2014\u897f\u8499\u00b7\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u5047\u60f3\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u8457\u540d\u667a\u8005\u2014\u2014\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u7684\u5996\u602a\uff08D\u00e9mon de Laplace\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u5b87\u5b99\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u89c6\u4e3a\u5176\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u7684\u56e0\u3002\u5047\u82e5\u4e00\u4f4d\u667a\u8005\u4f1a\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u6240\u6709\u4fc3\u4f7f\u81ea\u7136\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u529b\u548c\u6240\u6709\u7ec4\u6784\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5047\u82e5\u4ed6\u4e5f\u80fd\u591f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5219\u5728\u5b87\u5b99\u91cc\uff0c\u4ece\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7269\u4f53\u5230\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u7c92\u5b50\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u90fd\u5305\u542b\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u7b80\u5355\u516c\u5f0f\u91cc\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4f4d\u667a\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u4f1a\u662f\u542b\u7cca\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u672a\u6765\u53ea\u4f1a\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u822c\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4ed6\u773c\u524d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f60\u76f8\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u91cc\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e00\u4e2a\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u5996\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/84e61588070b4d6b9b6042f02f95cf77.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/84e61588070b4d6b9b6042f02f95cf77.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u258c\u4e09\u3001 \u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u80fd\u800d\u6d41\u6c13<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u4e0d\u52a0\u9650\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u6216\u8005\u9650\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u662f\u800d\u6d41\u6c13\u3002\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6781\u5176\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u4ee5\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u62a4\u8138\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u5982\u5fae\u8f6f\u524dCEO \u53f2\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u9c8d\u5c14\u9ed8\uff08Steve 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u7531\u6b64\u60f3\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u4eec\u6700\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u9884\u8a00\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u4e00\u8d77\u5e8a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u8981\u559d\u4e2a\u5496\u5561\u6da6\u6da6\u55d3\u5b50\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bf9\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u543c\u4e00\u53e5\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u8981\u5d29\u76d8\uff01\uff08Market will crash!\uff09\u4f46\u4f60\u8981\u8ffd\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u4e0b\u2014\u2014\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5d29\uff1f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u5d29\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u8dcc\u591a\u5c11\u7b97\u5d29\uff1f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u3002\u6ca1\u5d29\u7684\u8bdd\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5207\u8179\u4ee5\u8c22\u7f6a\uff1f\u4e0d\u80fd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8ba9\u6211\u60f3\u5230\u5929\u5929\u7ed9\u5730\u9707\u5c40\u62a5\u544a\u5730\u9707\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u6c11\u79d1\u4eec\uff0c\u6709\u671d\u4e00\u65e5\u771f\u5730\u9707\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8dd1\u53bb\u5bf9\u5a92\u4f53\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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Fama\uff09\u6559\u6388\u7684\u4e00\u5e2e\u8bfa\u5956\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u90a3\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c31\u662f\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff08\u6700\u65e9\u7531\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5df4\u820d\u5229\u8036\uff08Louis Bachelier\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u5f62\u5bb9\u5c31\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff08random walk\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u50cf\u4e2a\u9189\u9b3c\u4e00\u6837\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u8d70\uff0c\u5f80\u54ea\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/e5ed8035771a410da2094405bf88ea3d.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u800c\u6cd5\u9a6c\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u8bf4\u7684\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u76f8\u5173\uff08serial correlation\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6628\u5929\u7684\u6211\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6211\uff09\uff1b\u8bb8\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\u77ed\u671f\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u52a8\u91cf\uff08momentum\uff09\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u662f\u8d8b\u52bf\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u57fa\u77f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u5916\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4f1a\u6709\u540c\u4e00\u7c7b\u5b66\u9738\u30021984\u5e74\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5728\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u5bf9\u5792\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u5927\u4f6c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u8a79\u68ee\uff08Michael Jensen\uff09\u3002\u8a79\u68ee\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u5728\u6254\u786c\u5e01\uff0c\u4e1a\u7ee9\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u65e0\u975e\u5c31\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u7279\u522b\u597d\u3002\u800c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u56de\u5e94\u662f\uff1a\u90a3\u4e07\u4e00\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u672c\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u597d\u7684\u786c\u5e01\u624b\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u600e\u4e48\u529e\uff1f\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u53eb\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6-\u591a\u5fb7\u7684\u6751\u5b50\uff08\u90fd\u662f\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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30%\uff09\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bf4\u5230\u9884\u6d4b\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u7684\u625b\u628a\u5b50\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u5c65\u5386\u51fa\u5947\u4f18\u79c0\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e862000\u5e74\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u5e76\u518d\u63a5\u518d\u5389\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e862007\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7834\u706d\u3002\u5e2d\u52d2\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff08CAPE, or Shiller PE\uff09\uff0c\u542c\u8bf4\u7528\u4e4b\u56de\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5174\u8870\u795e\u51c6\u65e0\u6bd4\uff0c\u582a\u79f0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u6c34\u6676\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/accb96b869f045f49c3099de724e005b.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/accb96b869f045f49c3099de724e005b.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u867d\u8bf4\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5f88\u725b\u903c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u6bd5\u7adf\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u79d8\u5bc6\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u5f20\u4e09\u674e\u56db\u7686\u53ef\u7528\u4e4b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e3a\u5565\u9884\u8a00\u5e1d\u5e2d\u52d2\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6b64\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u51c6\u5934\u5462\uff1f\u2014\u2014\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u4e2a\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u7a7a\u5934\uff0c\u65f6\u65f6\u90fd\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8981\u5d29\u30022014\u5e74\u4ed6\u5c31\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u7684\u5e2d\u52d2\u724c\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8b66\u62a5\u5668\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u6ef4\u6ef4\u6ef4\u4e86\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf26X \u4e86\uff0c\u4ece1881\u5e74\u5230\u73b0\u5728\uff082014\u5e74\uff09\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u6b21\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u6b21\u662f1929\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u662f2000\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u662f2007\u5e74\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u5c31\u4e0d\u7528\u6211\u8bf4\u4e86\u5427\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\u5e2d\u52d2\u6559\u6388\u5df2\u7ecf\u6301\u7eed\u8bf4\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u8981\u8bef\u4f1a\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u6559\u6388\u662f\u6211\u5f02\u5e38\u5c0a\u656c\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u5b66\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u201c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u6027\u75af\u72c2\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u73b0\u8c61\u6709\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6df1\u5230\u80fd\u62ff\u8bfa\u5956\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u77e5\u9053\u5f88\u591a\u81ea\u6211\u5b9e\u73b0\u5f0f\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u53ef\u4ee5\u575a\u633a\u5230\u8ba9\u4f60\u6000\u7591\u4eba\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\u6700\u8fd1\u4ed6\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u91cc\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u201d\u3001\u201c\u5fe7\u5fc3\u5fe1\u5fe1\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5efa\u8bae\u5b8c\u5168\u6e05\u4ed3\u201d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u53c8\u6bd4\u8f83\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\uff1b\u800c\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u5176\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6740\u7ea2\u773c\u4e86\u523031X \uff0c\u9762\u524d\u4ec5\u67091929\u5e74\u548c2000\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e24\u5ea7\u5927\u5c71\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5374\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u6559\u6388\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6108\u53d1\u8c28\u614e\u4e86\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u516d\u6708\u4ed6\u5c45\u7136\u53d1\u8a00\u8bf4\u201c\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5927\u6da8\u201d\uff08\u6ce8\u610f\u8fd9\u662f\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u5f00\u542f\u9632\u6253\u8138\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u5c0f\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u8282\u770b\u591a\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u4e3a\u6559\u6388\u6536\u83b7\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u638c\u58f0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u5916\u5e2d\u52d2\u4e5f\u8bf4\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6781\u4f73\u4ee3\u8868\uff08anamazing example of a bubble\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u7834\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u80a1\u5e02\u7cfb\u7edf\u7b80\u5355\u4e00\u767e\u500d\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5927\u6982\u7387\u8fd9\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u603b\u6709\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u7528\u67d0\u4e9b\u5355\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53bb\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u4f46\u5355\u4e00\u6307\u6807\u6ce8\u5b9a\u8981\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u59ff\u52bf\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u90fd\u6709\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\u4f30\u503c\u9ad8\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\u901a\u80c0\u9ad8\u5bb9\u6613\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u5982\u4e0b\u8868\u6240\u793a\u2014\u2014\u5728\u6218\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u6240\u6709 20%\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u201c\u5d29\u76d8\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e2\u6709\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u53c8\u6709\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u65e2\u6709\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u53c8\u6709\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u65e2\u6709\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u53c8\u6709\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u914d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u4f1a\u5d29\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u914d\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5d29\uff0c\u8bf7\u968f\u610f\u642d\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/bf21057af2dc48ab8e1d55ef03664072.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/bf21057af2dc48ab8e1d55ef03664072.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u53eb\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\uff08M.F.M Osborne\uff09\uff08\u8fd9\u54e5\u4eec\u5f88\u4e0d\u51fa\u540d\uff0c\u4f46\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6765\u8fd9\u91cc\u62dc\u7801\u5934\uff09\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u91cc\uff0c\u641e\u51fa\u4e86\u300a\u8bba\u80a1\u5e02\u91cc\u7684\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u300b\uff08Brownian Motion in the Stock Market\uff09\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u70b9\u7231\u56e0\u65af\u5766\u5728\u4e13\u5229\u5c40\u91cc\u641e\u76f8\u5bf9\u8bba\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u91cc\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5c31\u8ddf\u4e00\u5806\u5728\u6c34\u91cc\u7684\u7c92\u5b50\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e24\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u561b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8bb2\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8054\u5408\u5316\u5b66\u516c\u53f8\uff08Allied Chemical\uff09\u51e0\u5206\u949f\u5185\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u56fe\u540e\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u7684\u8001\u86cb\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5b9a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/b362a4862a4545628e3fcdf2e89b0916.png'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PCEtLUFyZ29uTG9hZGluZy0tPgo8c3ZnIHdpZHRoPSIxIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjEiIHhtbG5zPSJodHRwOi8vd3d3LnczLm9yZy8yMDAwL3N2ZyIgc3Ryb2tlPSIjZmZmZmZmMDAiPjxnPjwvZz4KPC9zdmc+\"  decoding=\"async\" data-original=\"http:\/\/5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com\/images\/20171118\/b362a4862a4545628e3fcdf2e89b0916.png\" src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u60f3\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e0d\u662f\u778e\u5b50\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u5f97\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u592a\u968f\u673a\u554a\uff0c56\u7f8e\u5143\u548c55.75\u7f8e\u5143\u8fd9\u4e24\u6863\u4ef7\u4f4d\u660e\u663e\u6210\u4ea4\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e5f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u559c\u6b22\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ef7\u4f4d\u4e4b\u95f4\u6210\u4ea4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u53d1\u73b0\u97ed\u83dc\u6563\u6237\u4e0b\u5355\u559c\u6b22\u9650\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u6574\u6570\u4f4d\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf49\u5757\u6216\u800510\u5757\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u80a1\u4ef7\u90fd\u662f\u4ee51\/8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u5c0f\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\uff08\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u56fe\u4e2d56.125\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5947\u8469\u4ef7\u4f4d\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u8ba4\u4e3a\u2014\u2014\u806a\u660e\u70b9\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u5728\u6bd4\u5982 9\u53c81 \/8\u7684\u4ef7\u4f4d\u53bb\u8fdb\u8d27\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u77e5\u90539\u5757\u94b1\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8ba2\u5355\u652f\u6491\uff1b\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u53c8\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u57289\u53c87\/8\u7684\u4ef7\u4f4d\u53bb\u51fa\u8d27\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u77e5\u905310\u5757\u94b1\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8ba2\u5355\u6253\u538b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e8f\u6700\u591a\u4e8f1\/8\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u8d5a\u5230\u5411\u4e0a\u76846\/8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8e\u662f\u539f\u672c\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6df1\u4fe1\u4e0d\u7591\u7684\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u5728\u4e00\u7bc7\u53eb\u300a\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u505a\u5e02\u4e0e\u53cd\u8f6c\u300b\uff08Market Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange\uff09\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u597d\u4e2d\u6e14\u5229\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6765\u81ea\u52a8\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u79cd\u5355\u7b14\u83b7\u5229\u8f83\u5c0f\u4f46\u662f\u9891\u7387\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u57281966\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u80fd\u591f\u6ee1\u8db3\u5965\u65af\u4f2f\u6069\u8fdc\u5927\u7684\u7406\u60f3\uff1b\u5f53\u7136\u73b0\u5728\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u7956\u5e08\u7237\u5c31\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff1a\u80fd\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u8f6c\u800c\u53bb\u521b\u89c1\u6027\u5730\u53bb\u5b55\u80b2\u51fa\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u80da\u80ce\u2014\u2014\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u96be\u7528\u7c97\u66b4\u7684\u201c\u662f\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u5426\u201d\u6765\u7b80\u5355\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\uff08\u7eaf\u5c5e\u4e2a\u4eba\u89c2\u70b9\uff09\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8d8b\u52bf\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u6e14\u83b7\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u6211\u5f88\u6000\u7591\uff1b\u800c\u4e2d\u671f\uff08\u4e00\u4e24\u5e74\u5185\uff09\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u5f7b\u5e95\u653e\u5f03\u9884\u6d4b\uff1b\u4f46\u662f\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u773c\u5149\u653e\u5230\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4ece\u5404\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u2014\u2014\u80a1\u5e02\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u6da8\u7684\u3002\u597d\u5427\u6211\u627f\u8ba4\u6211\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u5766\u8bda\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u800c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u60f3\u8981\u6295\u8d44\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4f60\u77ed\u4e2d\u671f\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f00\u5929\u773c\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4e0e\u5176\u53bb\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5982\u51fa\u95e8\u5e26\u628a\u4f1e\uff1b\u4e0e\u5176\u53bb\u9884\u6d4b\u5730\u9707\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5982\u628a\u623f\u5b50\u4fee\u4fee\u7262\uff1b\u4f60\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u9ed1\u7bb1\uff0c\u505a\u597d\u5206\u6563\u3001\u505a\u597d\u7eaa\u5f8b\u3001\u505a\u597d\u98ce\u63a7\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u80fd\u591f\u9762\u5bf9\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u660e\u5929\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u4f1a\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9diversification 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u9700\u8981XX\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u7f8e\u91d1\u5b9a\u5b58\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6563\u7684\u3001\u6709\u7eaa\u5f8b\u7684\u3001\u80fd\u9762\u5bf9\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u683c\u9686\u6c47 2017-11-18 18:00<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sohu.com\/a\/205151501_313170\">https:\/\/www.sohu.com\/a\/205151501_313170<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\u2026\u2026\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7406\u8bba\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u8bef\u8bfb\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u201d \u2014\u2014\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2 \u201c\uff08\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff09\u5b9a\u4e49\u201c\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[22],"class_list":["post-6513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment","tag-22"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6513\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}