{"id":12253,"date":"2026-05-17T11:03:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T03:03:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12253"},"modified":"2026-05-17T11:03:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T03:03:37","slug":"%e6%9c%80%e5%ae%b9%e6%98%93%e8%a2%ab%e5%bf%bd%e8%a7%86%e7%9a%84%e5%9d%87%e5%80%bc%e5%9b%9e%e5%bd%92","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12253","title":{"rendered":"\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u9038\u67f3\u7684\u77e5\u884c\u4e4b\u8def<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300a\u601d\u8003\u00b7\u5feb\u4e0e\u6162\u300b\u7684\u7b2c17\u7ae0\u6807\u9898\u662f\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff08Regression to the Mean\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6211\u4eec\u62ff\u5230\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\u6807\u9898\u5219\u662f\u201c\u6240\u6709\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u4f1a\u56de\u5f52\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u201d\uff0c\u96be\u602a\u770b\u5230\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5410\u69fd\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6765\u7740\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u9996\u5148\u8bb2\u4e86\u4ed6\u7ed9\u98de\u884c\u5458\u6559\u7ec3\u8bb2\uff1a\u201c\u5bf9\u826f\u597d\u8868\u73b0\u7684\u5609\u5956\u6bd4\u5bf9\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u60e9\u7f5a\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6559\u7ec3\u5458\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff1a\u201c\u8d5e\u8d4f\u67d0\u4e2a\u98de\u884c\u5458\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u53d8\u5dee\u4e86\uff1b\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6ca1\u6709\u6267\u884c\u597d\u52a8\u4f5c\u7684\u5b66\u5458\u5927\u58f0\u6012\u543c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u66f4\u597d\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u987f\u609f\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u6559\u7ec3\u5458\u8bf4\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff0c\u4e0e\u662f\u5426\u5f97\u5230\u5956\u52b1\u548c\u60e9\u7f5a\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\u7684\u9053\u7406\u4e0d\u96be\uff0c\u4e00\u70b9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5c31\u4f1a\u201c\u61c2\u201d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u201c\u61c2\u4e86\u201d\u5c31\u4f1a\u5fd8\u6389\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u5e38\u8bc6\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u901a\u5e38\u8868\u73b0\uff1a\u8bf4\u51fa\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u61c2\uff0c\u505a\u8d77\u6765\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u5fd8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u8bb2\u4e86\u4e0b\u4ed6\u7ed9\u300a\u8fb9\u7f18\uff08Edge\uff09\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4ed6\u6700\u559c\u7231\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6210\u529f=\u5929\u8d4b+\u8fd0\u6c14\uff08success = talent + luck\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u529f=\u5c11\u8bb8\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5929\u8d4b+\u5de8\u91cf\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\uff08great success = little more talent + a lot of luck\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4e00\u51fa\u751f\u5c31\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u51fa\u751f\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fd0\u6c14\u8fd8\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u540c\u5fd7\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u5c31\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5929\u8d4b\u4e5f\u8fd8\u6bd4\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd0\u6c14\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u4f5c\u7528\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u8981\u662f\u4ed6\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u666e\u901a\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fbe\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u96be\u5ea6\u5c31\u8981\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\u4e86\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u653f\u8981\u8eab\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8fd0\u6c14\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u5b9e\u4e25\u683c\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u5929\u8d4b\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u4e8b\u60c5\u3001\u5f00\u59cb\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5929\u8d4b\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u4e86\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u73b0\u6709\u7980\u8d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e2a\u7684\u201c\u5148\u5929\u8fd0\u6c14\u201d\uff0c\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e5f\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u597d\u8fd0\u6c14\u548c\u574f\u8fd0\u6c14\u90fd\u6709\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u65f6\u597d\u65f6\u574f\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5c31\u4f53\u73b0\u51fa\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4e0d\u6b62\u662f\u4ecb\u7ecd\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u7ecf\u5e38\u662f\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5927\u5bb6\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u7acb\u523b\u5c31\u60f3\u5230\u5b83\uff0c\u66f4\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u542c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u8981\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u80a1\u8bc4\u5bb6\u8bf4\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u6da8\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u53ea\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7acb\u9a6c\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u6000\u7591\u5176\u4e13\u4e1a\u6027\uff0c\u55e4\u4e4b\u4ee5\u9f3b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f1a\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u201c\u6291\u90c1\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\u559d\u4e86\u67d0\u79cd\u996e\u6599\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6539\u5584\u201d\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u996e\u6599\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff0c\u201c\u6291\u90c1\u75c7\u60a3\u8005\u201d\u505a\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u4e8b\u60c5\u6bd4\u5982\u770b\u7535\u89c6\u3001\u64b8\u732b\u3001\u6563\u6b65\u7b49\u7b49\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u201c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7597\u6548\u201d\u3002\u5c01\u88c5\u5c42\u5149\u9c9c\u7406\u7531\u5f88\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u6da8\u4e86\u5f88\u4e45\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7a81\u7136\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u771f\u6b63\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u7531\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u6da8\u5f97\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8dcc\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u6d88\u606f\u9762\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982deepseek\u4e4b\u4e8e\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\u672c\u8eab\u65e0\u6cd5\u6784\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u80af\u5b9a\u8bf4\u4e4b\u524d\u8fd0\u6c14\u5dee\u3001\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8fd0\u6c14\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5ffd\u89c6\u201c\u56de\u5f52\u6027\u201d\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5e26\u6765\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bef\u5224\uff0c\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u67d0\u79cd\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8fd8\u89e3\u91ca\u5f97\u6709\u7406\u6709\u636e\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5c06\u597d\u8fd0\u6c14\u8ddf\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u5929\u8d4b\u6302\u94a9\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u6da8\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u53ea\u597d\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u8dcc\u5c31\u5c06\u5176\u8d2c\u4f4e\u5f97\u4e00\u6587\u4e0d\u540d\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u8be5\u575a\u5b88\u65f6\u575a\u5b88\uff0c\u5728\u8be5\u575a\u5b88\u65f6\u8fc7\u65e9\u653e\u5f03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2025\u5e7402\u670828\u65e5 18:44\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=Mzk0MDYzODcwMw==&amp;mid=2247726107&amp;idx=5&amp;sn=21b671dd5fe8a99ee5ebdb46276daaac&amp;chksm=c3bce03de9ece76a9c09f7b1ebcdcf20e3fbd4916a6d3ea39e04394e8f2543c5353b3ba1ea0c&amp;scene=0&amp;xtrack=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u683c\u4e0a\u7406\u8d22<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/money\/smjj\/smdt\/2025-02-28\/doc-inemzuic6895889.shtml\">https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/money\/smjj\/smdt\/2025-02-28\/doc-inemzuic6895889.shtml<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7b2c60\u96c6 |\u00a0\u8bfa\u5956\u7684\u6b8b\u9177\u771f\u76f8\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8d8b\u52bf<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.douyin.com\/video\/7633591025293888787\">https:\/\/www.douyin.com\/video\/7633591025293888787<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u9038\u67f3\u7684\u77e5\u884c\u4e4b\u8def \u300a\u601d\u8003\u00b7\u5feb\u4e0e\u6162\u300b\u7684\u7b2c17\u7ae0\u6807\u9898\u662f\u201c\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u201d\uff08Regression to the Mea [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12253\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}