{"id":12038,"date":"2026-04-16T12:38:46","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T04:38:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12038"},"modified":"2026-04-16T12:38:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T04:38:46","slug":"99%e4%b8%aa%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e5%81%8f%e5%b7%ae%e5%8f%8a%e5%b0%8f%e6%95%85%e4%ba%8b%ef%bc%88%e6%9b%b4%e6%96%b0%e5%8e%bb%e9%87%8d%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12038","title":{"rendered":"99\u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u53ca\u5c0f\u6545\u4e8b\uff08\u66f4\u65b0\u53bb\u91cd\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u300aThe Art of Thinking Clearly\u300b\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u4e66\uff0c99\u7ae0\u6bcf\u7ae0\u4e00\u4e2a\u504f\u5dee\u914d\u4e0a\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728AI\u7684\u8f85\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e66\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u768499\u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u914d\u4e0a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5c0f\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u5feb\u901f\u6d4f\u89c8\u67e5\u9605\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Survivorship Bias \u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u6210\u529f\u8005\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5931\u8d25\u8005,\u4ece\u800c\u9ad8\u4f30\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ebRick\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u5230\u5904\u90fd\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6447\u6eda\u660e\u661f,\u4e8e\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ec4\u5efa\u4e00\u652f\u4e50\u961f\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4ed6\u6ca1\u610f\u8bc6\u5230,\u5a92\u4f53\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u90a3\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u660e\u661f,\u5374\u6ca1\u62a5\u9053musikland\u4e2d\u6570\u4ee5\u4e07\u8ba1\u9ed8\u9ed8\u65e0\u95fb\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u4e50\u961f\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5893\u5730\u91cc\u57cb\u7740\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u8005\u4e00\u6837,\u5931\u8d25\u4e50\u961f\u4e5f\u65e0\u4eba\u95ee\u6d25\u3002Rick\u56e0\u6b64\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u6982\u7387,\u6210\u4e3a\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u591a\u5230&#8221;\u5893\u5730&#8221;\u91cc\u53bb\u770b\u770b,\u4e86\u89e3\u5931\u8d25\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b,\u907f\u514d\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u6210\u529f\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Swimmer&#8217;s Body Illusion \u6e38\u6cf3\u5065\u5c06\u7684\u8eab\u6750\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6df7\u6dc6\u4e86\u9009\u62e9\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u7ed3\u679c,\u5c06\u7279\u5f81\u5f53\u6210\u4e86\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7eb3\u897f\u59c6\u00b7\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u60f3\u51cf\u80a5,\u770b\u5230\u6e38\u6cf3\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u8eab\u6750\u5f88\u597d,\u5c31\u51b3\u5b9a\u6bcf\u5468\u7ec3\u4e24\u6b21\u6e38\u6cf3\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u540e\u6765\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e7b\u89c9,\u804c\u4e1a\u6e38\u6cf3\u8fd0\u52a8\u5458\u8eab\u6750\u597d\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5e38\u6e38\u6cf3,\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u804c\u4e1a\u9009\u624b\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u6709\u597d\u8eab\u6750\u3002\u6a21\u7279\u5728\u5316\u5986\u54c1\u5e7f\u544a\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u7406,\u5979\u4eec\u5e76\u975e\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u67d0\u5316\u5986\u54c1\u800c\u53d8\u7f8e,\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5148\u5929\u4e3d\u8d28\u624d\u88ab\u9009\u4e3a\u6a21\u7279\u5e76\u4ee3\u8a00\u5316\u5986\u54c1\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5206\u6e05\u9009\u62e9\u6807\u51c6\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb,\u907f\u514d\u6df7\u6dc6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Clustering Illusion \u805a\u7c7b\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9762\u5bf9\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u65f6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u770b\u5230\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d4c\u5f92\u5728\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u9ed1\u8272\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0,\u5c31\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e4b\u540e\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6,\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u542c\u5230\u51e0\u5929\u63a5\u8fde\u53d1\u751f\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b,\u5c31\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7a7a\u96be\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u4e00\u6837,\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u805a\u7c7b\u5e7b\u89c9\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7406\u89e3\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6027,\u72ec\u7acb\u8bc4\u4f30\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387,\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Social Proof \u793e\u4f1a\u8ba4\u540c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a,\u4ece\u4f17\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8868\u660e,\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ad9\u5728\u9a6c\u8def\u8fb9\u5411\u4e0a\u770b,\u884c\u4eba\u591a\u6570\u9009\u62e9\u8d70\u8fc7;\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u67095\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e00\u8d77\u5411\u4e0a\u770b,\u591a\u6570\u884c\u4eba\u4f1a\u505c\u4e0b\u6765\u770b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba4\u540c\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728,\u4ece\u9009\u996d\u5e97\u3001\u9009\u624b\u673a\u5230\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56,\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ddf\u4ece\u4ed6\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u505a\u7684\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5bf9\u7684,\u6bd4\u5982&#8221;\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94&#8221;\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003,\u4ee5\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\u505a\u51b3\u7b56,\u4e0d\u76f2\u4ece\u3002\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u4e0d\u6015\u6210\u4e3a\u5c11\u6570\u6d3e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Sunk Cost Fallacy \u6c89\u6ca1\u6210\u672c\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5df2\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u6210\u672c,\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u770b\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u5229\u5f0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e8c\u6218\u4e2d,\u82f1\u7f8e\u76df\u519b\u5728\u8bfa\u66fc\u5e95\u767b\u9646 (D-Day) \u53d7\u5230\u5fb7\u519b\u987d\u5f3a\u62b5\u6297,\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\u3002\u540e\u6765\u5fb7\u519b\u88ab\u51fb\u6e83,\u76df\u519b\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u613f\u653e\u5f03\u767b\u9646\u8ba1\u5212\u6539\u4ece\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u70b9\u8fdb\u653b,\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u8bfa\u66fc\u5e95\u5df2\u7ecf\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u529b\u7269\u529b\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730,\u6211\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u8fc7\u53bb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u4e0a\u82b1\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u94b1,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u770b\u4eca\u540e\u503c\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u7ee7\u7eed\u6295\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u6bcf\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a,\u4e0d\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6295\u5165,\u53ea\u95ee\u4eca\u540e\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u662f\u5426\u5927\u4e8e\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u8981\u6562\u4e8e\u653e\u5f03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Reciprocity \u4e92\u60e0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5f97\u5230\u4ed6\u4eba\u597d\u5904\u540e\u6709\u56de\u8d60\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\u611f,\u5373\u4f7f\u4ee3\u4ef7\u5927\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0,\u5982\u679c\u9910\u9986\u8d60\u9001\u4e00\u5757\u53e3\u9999\u7cd6,\u5c0f\u8d39\u4f1a\u589e\u52a03%;\u4e24\u5757\u53e3\u9999\u7cd6\u5219\u589e\u52a014%\u3002\u4e92\u60e0\u539f\u5219\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u5546\u4e1a,\u6bd4\u5982\u514d\u8d39\u8bd5\u7528\u3001\u8d60\u54c1\u7b49\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u4e5f\u5e38\u5229\u7528\u4e92\u60e0\u539f\u5219,\u63a5\u53d7\u5c0f\u6069\u5c0f\u60e0,\u4e8b\u540e\u5374\u8981\u63d0\u4f9b\u9ad8\u989d\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u4e92\u60e0\u867d\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u793e\u4f1a\u4ef7\u503c,\u4f46\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u88ab\u522b\u6709\u7528\u5fc3\u4e4b\u4eba\u5229\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ed6\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u597d\u5904,\u7406\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u56de\u62a5\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406,\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u4e92\u60e0\u4e49\u52a1\u51cc\u9a7e\u4e8e\u7406\u667a\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Confirmation Bias (Part 1) \u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u5dee(\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u5df2\u6709\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u5ffd\u89c6\u76f8\u53cd\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5949&#8221;\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u9020\u8bbf\u5730\u7403&#8221;\u7684\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u9ea6\u7530\u602a\u5708\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u6240\u4e3a,\u770b\u5230\u6ca1\u6709\u602a\u5708\u7684\u9ea6\u7530\u5219\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u90a3\u5929\u6ca1\u6765\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bc1\u636e,\u4ed6\u90fd\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5bf9\u65b9\u662f\u5c0f\u5077\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf,\u5c31\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u53bb\u627e\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u5bf9\u65b9\u6709\u7f6a\u7684\u7ebf\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u8bc1\u636e,\u7528\u540c\u7b49\u6807\u51c6\u770b\u5f85\u652f\u6301\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u8bc1\u636e,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53cc\u91cd\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Confirmation Bias (Part 2) \u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u5dee(\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u66f2\u89e3\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u4f7f\u4e4b\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u901a\u7075\u8005\u8ba9\u6b7b\u8005\u5bb6\u5c5e\u8bf4&#8221;\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\u4e86J\u6216E\u5f00\u5934\u7684\u540d\u5b57&#8221;,\u5bb6\u5c5e\u7acb\u5373\u60f3\u5230\u4e86\u7b26\u5408\u7684\u4eba,\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u80fd\u60f3\u5230J\u6216E\u5f00\u5934\u7684\u719f\u4eba\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u8d22\u62a5\u4e5f\u5e38\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u66f2\u89e3\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u7b97\u547d\u5148\u751f\u8bf4\u4f60\u6027\u683c\u5916\u5411,\u4f60\u9a6c\u4e0a\u60f3\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u53c2\u52a0\u6d3e\u5bf9\u7684\u60c5\u5f62;\u4ed6\u8bf4\u4f60\u6027\u683c\u5185\u5411,\u4f60\u9a6c\u4e0a\u60f3\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u72ec\u81ea\u6c89\u601d\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u8bdd\u603b\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e0d\u8981\u4e3b\u89c2\u66f2\u89e3\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u5ba2\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u6db5\u4e49,\u4e0d\u8981\u5f80\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0a\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Authority Bias \u6743\u5a01\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u670d\u4ece\u6743\u5a01\u4eba\u58eb,\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u5fc5\u6b63\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7c73\u5c14\u683c\u62c9\u59c6\u505a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u5b9e\u9a8c,\u8ba9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u626e\u6f14&#8221;\u8001\u5e08&#8221;\u89d2\u8272,\u5bf9\u5b66\u751f\u8fdb\u884c\u7535\u51fb\u3002\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u660e\u77e5\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4f24\u5bb3\u5b66\u751f,\u4f46\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u547d\u4ee4\u4e0b,\u4ecd\u670965%\u7684\u4eba\u628a\u7535\u538b\u5f00\u5230\u81f4\u6b7b\u7684450\u4f0f\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6743\u5a01\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u533b\u751f\u5f00\u9519\u836f,\u75c5\u4eba\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u7167\u5355\u5168\u6536\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u6743\u5a01\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u8bdd,\u4e0d\u8981\u5168\u76d8\u63a5\u53d7,\u8981\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u5176\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u6743\u5a01\u518d\u9ad8,\u4e5f\u6709\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u5fc5\u8981\u65f6\u8981\u6562\u4e8e\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Contrast Effect \u5bf9\u6bd4\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e0e\u80cc\u666f\u5f62\u6210\u9c9c\u660e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a5\u82f1\u5c3a10\u82f1\u5bf8(\u7ea6178\u5398\u7c73)\u9ad8\u7684\u7537\u5b50\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u4e2d\u663e\u5f97\u9ad8\u5927,\u4f46\u5728NBA\u7403\u5458\u4e2d\u5c31\u4e0d\u7b97\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e86\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u8d44\u4f4e\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u8df3\u69fd,\u5373\u4f7f\u65b0\u5de5\u8d44\u53ea\u6bd4\u539f\u5de5\u8d44\u9ad8\u4e00\u70b9,\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u6ee1\u8db3\u611f;\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u8d44\u9ad8\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u8df3\u69fd,\u65b0\u5de5\u8d44\u6bd4\u539f\u5de5\u8d44\u9ad8\u5f88\u591a\u624d\u4f1a\u6709\u540c\u6837\u6ee1\u8db3\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6548\u5e94\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u3002\u5e7f\u544a\u5546\u5e38\u5229\u7528\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6548\u5e94,\u5c06\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0e\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u505a\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c,\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u770b\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5bf9\u6bd4\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8bef\u5bfc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Availability Bias \u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;911\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540e,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u5f00\u8f66\u51fa\u884c\u800c\u4e0d\u6562\u5750\u98de\u673a,\u56e0\u4e3a911\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6050\u6016\u8bb0\u5fc6\u5bb9\u6613\u6d6e\u73b0\u5728\u8111\u6d77\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a,\u5f00\u8f66\u51fa\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5750\u98de\u673a\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730,\u6211\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u7136\u707e\u5bb3\u3001\u7ed1\u67b6\u3001\u6050\u88ad\u7b49\u5bb9\u6613\u5f15\u8d77\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387,\u800c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e2d\u98ce\u3001\u7cd6\u5c3f\u75c5\u7b49\u5e38\u89c1\u75c5\u81f4\u6b7b\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u6982\u7387\u65f6,\u4e0d\u8981\u4f9d\u8d56\u76f4\u89c9\u548c\u8bb0\u5fc6,\u800c\u8981\u67e5\u770b\u5ba2\u89c2\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>It&#8217;ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy \u5f0a\u5927\u4e8e\u5229\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8,\u56fa\u6267\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a&#8221;\u4f1a\u5148\u53d8\u574f\u540e\u53d8\u597d&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u80a5\u80d6\u7684\u4eba\u51b3\u5b9a\u8282\u98df\u51cf\u80a5,\u6709\u4eba\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6&#8221;\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u4f60\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u75b2\u52b3,\u4f46\u575a\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\u5c31\u4f1a\u597d\u8d77\u6765&#8221;\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u4ed6\u8282\u98df\u540e\u611f\u5230\u865a\u5f31\u65e0\u529b,\u5c31\u653e\u5f03\u4e86\u3002\u518d\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u63a8\u884c\u53d8\u9769,\u9886\u5bfc\u544a\u8bc9\u5458\u5de5&#8221;\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u4e1a\u7ee9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0b\u6ed1,\u4f46\u4ee5\u540e\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347&#8221;\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5458\u5de5\u770b\u5230\u4e1a\u7ee9\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5c31\u62b5\u5236\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd&#8221;\u5148\u53d8\u574f\u540e\u53d8\u597d&#8221;\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6839\u636e,\u53d8\u9769\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5f0a\u5927\u4e8e\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7406\u6027\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5229\u5f0a,\u5982\u679c\u5f0a\u5927\u4e8e\u5229\u5c31\u679c\u65ad\u653e\u5f03,\u4e0d\u8981\u5b58\u5728\u4fa5\u5e78\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Story Bias \u6545\u4e8b\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7528\u6709\u8da3\u3001\u52a8\u4eba\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u4ee3\u66ff\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e2a\u764c\u75c7\u75c5\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u79ef\u6781\u4e50\u89c2\u6218\u80dc\u4e86\u7edd\u75c7,\u89c2\u4f17\u770b\u540e\u53d7\u5230\u9f13\u821e\u3002\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d,\u5fc3\u6001\u5bf9\u764c\u75c7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u5b66\u9f13\u5439\u53ea\u8981\u575a\u6301\u68a6\u60f3\u5c31\u80fd\u6210\u529f,\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u521b\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u717d\u52a8\u529b,\u4f46\u672a\u5fc5\u771f\u5b9e\u5ba2\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9762\u5bf9\u52a8\u4eba\u7684\u6545\u4e8b,\u8981\u7406\u6027\u770b\u5f85,\u7528\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u6027,\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u60c5\u7eea\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Hindsight Bias \u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u9884\u6d4b\u5df2\u53d1\u751f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;911\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u540e,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bf4&#8221;\u5176\u5b9e\u4ece\u5f88\u591a\u8ff9\u8c61\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u6765\u8fd9\u4e8b\u8981\u53d1\u751f&#8221;,\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u5728911\u4e4b\u524d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bf4&#8221;\u6211\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f1a\u79bb\u5a5a&#8221;,\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f53\u521d\u6709\u591a\u5927\u628a\u63e1,\u5f80\u5f80\u8981\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u9009\u4e3e\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5224\u65ad\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u65f6,\u8981\u770b\u4e8b\u524d\u7684\u5224\u65ad,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u540e\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u5199\u4e0b\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b,\u4e8b\u540e\u518d\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Overconfidence Effect \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u529b,\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u4f18\u79c0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;93%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u53f8\u673a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9a7e\u9a76\u6c34\u5e73\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u503c,\u8fd9\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u667a\u5546\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747,\u4e5f\u4e0d\u592a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u80fd\u529b,\u62a5\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8bfe\u7a0b,\u6700\u540e\u4e0d\u5c11\u8352\u5e9f\u3002\u4eba\u6027\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u63d0\u5347\u503e\u5411,\u8fc7\u4e8e\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u591a\u542c\u53d6\u5916\u754c\u8bc4\u4ef7,\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8981\u7528\u5ba2\u89c2\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u611f\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Chauffeur Knowledge \u53f8\u673a\u77e5\u8bc6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u53ea\u61c2\u5f97\u8868\u9762\u77e5\u8bc6,\u800c\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u6df1\u5c42\u539f\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e38\u5ba2\u5750\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u6e38\u89c8\u4e00\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02,\u53f8\u673a\u6ed4\u6ed4\u4e0d\u7edd\u5730\u8bb2\u89e3\u5404\u4e2a\u666f\u70b9\u3002\u6e38\u5ba2\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u53f8\u673a\u662f\u5f53\u5730\u5386\u53f2\u4e13\u5bb6,\u4f46\u53f8\u673a\u5176\u5b9e\u53ea\u662f\u6b7b\u8bb0\u786c\u80cc\u4e86\u5bfc\u6e38\u8bcd,\u5e76\u4e0d\u771f\u6b63\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u666f\u70b9\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6587\u5316\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730,\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u80cc\u8bf5\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b,\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4e2d\u539f\u7406;\u53ef\u4ee5\u7167\u642c\u7f51\u4e0a\u7684\u4ee3\u7801,\u4f46\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u5176\u4e2d\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8868\u9762\u7684\u3001\u6b7b\u8bb0\u786c\u80cc\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5c31\u662f&#8221;\u53f8\u673a\u77e5\u8bc6&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5b66\u4e60\u77e5\u8bc6\u8981\u8ffd\u6839\u6eaf\u6e90,\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u4e2d\u539f\u7406,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u8bb0\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8981\u80fd\u4e3e\u4e00\u53cd\u4e09,\u7075\u6d3b\u8fd0\u7528,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u4f1a\u673a\u68b0\u91cd\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Illusion of Control \u63a7\u5236\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b,\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fd0\u6c14\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u73a9\u9ab0\u5b50\u6e38\u620f\u65f6,\u7528\u529b\u6447\u9ab0\u5b50\u5e0c\u671b\u6447\u51fa\u9ad8\u70b9\u6570,\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6447\u9ab0\u5b50\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u6709\u4eba\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u662f&#8221;\u798f\u5c06&#8221;,\u8d4c\u535a\u65f6\u8fd0\u6c14\u7279\u522b\u597d,\u4f46\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u770b,\u8fd0\u6c14\u56e0\u7d20\u4f1a\u88ab\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u597d\u574f,CEO \u56fa\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u5f71\u54cd,\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u73af\u5883\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u529b,\u4e0d\u8981\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u638c\u63a7\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8981\u770b\u5230\u673a\u9047\u3001\u8fd0\u6c14\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Incentive Super-Response Tendency \u6fc0\u52b1\u8d85\u7ea7\u53cd\u5e94\u503e\u5411<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u5956\u60e9\u63aa\u65bd\u53cd\u5e94\u8fc7\u5ea6,\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u9ad8\u9500\u552e,\u7ed9\u9500\u552e\u4eba\u5458\u8bbe\u7f6e\u9ad8\u989d\u63d0\u6210\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u9500\u552e\u4eba\u5458\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u6210,\u91c7\u53d6\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u9053\u5fb7\u7684\u624b\u6bb5,\u5982\u5938\u5927\u4ea7\u54c1\u6548\u7528\u3001\u9690\u7792\u7f3a\u9677\u7b49\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u9500\u552e\u989d\u4e00\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347,\u4f46\u5ba2\u6237\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u58f0\u8a89\u53d7\u635f\u3002\u5956\u60e9\u56fa\u7136\u91cd\u8981,\u4f46\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5f3a\u8c03\u5956\u60e9,\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5458\u5de5\u5ffd\u89c6\u9053\u5fb7\u3001\u534f\u4f5c\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5956\u60e9\u5236\u5ea6\u65f6,\u8981\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u3002\u8981\u8ba9\u5458\u5de5\u660e\u767d,\u5956\u60e9\u53ea\u662f\u6fc0\u52b1\u624b\u6bb5,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Regression to Mean \u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u628a\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5fc5\u7136\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5c14\u592b\u7403\u9009\u624b\u6210\u7ee9\u7a81\u7136\u5f88\u597d,\u6559\u7ec3\u5927\u52a0\u8868\u626c;\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6210\u7ee9\u7a81\u7136\u5f88\u5dee,\u6559\u7ec3\u4e25\u5389\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8,\u6210\u7ee9\u597d\u574f\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u56de\u5f52\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b69\u5b50\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\u7a81\u7136\u4e0b\u964d,\u5bb6\u957f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60e9\u7f5a\u5b69\u5b50;\u4e0b\u6b21\u8003\u8bd5\u6210\u7ee9\u56de\u5347,\u5bb6\u957f\u53c8\u4f1a\u5956\u52b1\u5b69\u5b50\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38,\u4e0d\u5fc5\u592a\u60ca\u614c\u6216\u592a\u5174\u594b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u7406\u89e3\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027,\u4e0d\u8981\u5bf9\u77ed\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u53cd\u5e94\u8fc7\u5ea6\u3002\u5173\u6ce8\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u65f6\u8d77\u4f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Outcome Bias \u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6839\u636e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u597d\u574f\u6765\u8bc4\u5224\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u5192\u9669\u6536\u8d2d\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8,\u7ed3\u679c\u6536\u8d2d\u5931\u8d25,\u516c\u53f8\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e8b\u540e\u6279\u8bc4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6536\u8d2d\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f,\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5417?\u5982\u679c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u5206\u6790,\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684,\u53ea\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e0d\u597d\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8d5e\u626c\u4e54\u5e03\u65af\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u5f88\u82f1\u660e,\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u5f88\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4e54\u5e03\u65af\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5931\u8d25\u4e86,\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6279\u8bc4\u4ed6\u9c81\u83bd\u5192\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bc4\u5224\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u597d\u574f,\u8981\u770b\u51b3\u7b56\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u903b\u8f91,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8981\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd0\u6c14\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5b58\u5728,\u4e0d\u80fd\u6839\u636e\u77ed\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0b\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Paradox of Choice \u9009\u62e9\u6096\u8bba<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u9009\u62e9\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53cd\u800c\u8d8a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u8fc7\u591a\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u762b\u75ea\u3001\u540e\u6094\u548c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u9762\u5bf924\u79cd\u679c\u9171\u65f6\uff0c\u53ea\u67093%\u7684\u987e\u5ba2\u6700\u7ec8\u9009\u62e9\u8d2d\u4e70\uff1b\u800c\u9762\u5bf96\u79cd\u679c\u9171\u65f6\uff0c\u5219\u670930%\u7684\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u3002\u592a\u591a\u9009\u62e9\u8ba9\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u6289\u62e9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e8b\u540e\u6000\u7591\u662f\u5426\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u9884\u5148\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u7f29\u5c0f\u9009\u62e9\u8303\u56f4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b66\u4f1a\u6ee1\u8db3\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u6c42\u5b8c\u7f8e<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e00\u65e6\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u7ea0\u7ed3\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u9879<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u805a\u7126\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u5176\u4f59<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Liking Bias \u559c\u6b22\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u8bdd\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u7ed9\u4e88\u989d\u5916\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e0d\u592a\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u540e\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ecf\u7406\u5411\u9886\u5bfc\u63a8\u8350\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u9886\u5bfc\u89c9\u5f97\u4ed6\u5f88\u53ef\u7231\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u9879\u76ee\u5931\u8d25\u5e76\u635f\u5931\u60e8\u91cd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u65f6\u9886\u5bfc\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c2\u770b\u5f85\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u901a\u8fc7\u540c\u7406\u5fc3\u548c\u6c9f\u901a\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4eba<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5efa\u7acb\u6d41\u7a0b\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u516c\u5e73\u8bc4\u4f30\u6bcf\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9f13\u52b1\u56e2\u961f\u6210\u5458\u6311\u6218\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Endowment Effect \u7980\u8d4b\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u62e5\u6709\u67d0\u6837\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u7ec4\u5b66\u751f\u83b7\u5f97\u4e00\u4e2a\u9a6c\u514b\u676f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u793c\u7269\u3002\u5f53\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u51fa\u552e\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u9a6c\u514b\u676f\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u76842\u500d\u3002\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u6ca1\u6709\u6536\u5230\u793c\u7269\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u88ab\u95ee\u53ca\u613f\u610f\u4ee5\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u8d2d\u4e70\u65f6\uff0c\u51fa\u4ef7\u4ec5\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u62e5\u6709\u9a6c\u514b\u676f\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u5df2\u62e5\u6709\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u4ef7\u503c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8003\u8651\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c &#8211; \u653e\u5f03\u5f53\u524d\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u80fd\u6362\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u60c5\u611f\u4f9d\u604b\u5f71\u54cd\u4f60\u7684\u5224\u65ad<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Coincidence \u5de7\u5408<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5de7\u5408\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e3a\u5de7\u5408\u8d4b\u4e88\u7279\u6b8a\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5f53\u5b83\u4eec\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u504f\u597d\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u751f\u65e5\u90a3\u5929\u9047\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u540c\u540d\u540c\u59d3\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u5bf9\u65b9\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u4eba\u751f\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5de7\u5408\u867d\u7136\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4eba\u53e3\u57fa\u6570\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5076\u5c14\u53d1\u751f\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u91cd\u590d\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u65f6\u6709\u53d1\u751f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u4e3a\u5de7\u5408\u8d4b\u4e88\u8fc7\u591a\u8054\u60f3\u548c\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u5176\u5de6\u53f3\u51b3\u7b56<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b66\u4e60\u6982\u7387\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u6982\u7387\u601d\u7ef4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u548c\u731c\u6d4b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Groupthink \u7fa4\u4f53\u8ff7\u601d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7fa4\u4f53\u6210\u5458\u7684\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u53d7\u635f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\u800c\u538b\u5236\u5f02\u8bae\u3001\u5ffd\u89c6\u53cd\u8bc1\u3001\u5bf9\u5916\u7fa4\u4f53\u5984\u52a0\u5426\u5b9a\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a1961\u5e74\u5165\u4fb5\u53e4\u5df4\u7684\u732a\u6e7e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u5e55\u50da\u56e2\u961f\u8fc7\u4e8e\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba4\u771f\u8003\u8651\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u6210\u5458\u4e92\u76f8\u529d\u8beb\u8981&#8221;\u56e2\u7ed3\u4e00\u81f4&#8221;\uff0c\u538b\u5236\u4e86\u8d28\u7591\u548c\u5f02\u8bae\u3002\u6700\u540e\u8fd9\u6b21\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\u544a\u7ec8\uff0c\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u58f0\u8a89\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u9f13\u52b1\u6210\u5458\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u7545\u6240\u6b32\u8a00\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u610f\u89c1\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5e94\u53d1\u6325\u5f00\u660e\u3001\u865a\u5fc3\u7684\u699c\u6837\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u64cd\u63a7<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bbe\u7acb&#8221;\u9b54\u9b3c\u4ee3\u8a00\u4eba&#8221;\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u6311\u6218\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c0f\u7ec4\u6210\u5458\u5e94\u52aa\u529b\u4fdd\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u3001\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u7406\u6027\u7684\u601d\u8003<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u7ed3\u6784\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5f15\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u89c6\u89d2<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Neglect of Probability \u5ffd\u89c6\u6982\u7387<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f4e\u4f30\u666e\u904d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u5982\u5fc3\u810f\u75c5\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u4f30\u9192\u76ee\u4f46\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u5982\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\uff09\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u96be\u4ee5\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6709\u8d85\u8fc740%\u7684\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb\u7684\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u67090.01%\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ea630%\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u6b7b\u4e8e\u5fc3\u810f\u75c5\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6709\u516b\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u4eba\u5c06\u5176\u89c6\u4e3a\u4eba\u751f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u98de\u673a\u5931\u4e8b\u5f80\u5f80\u5f15\u8d77\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e58\u98de\u673a\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e58\u6c7d\u8f66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u901a\u8fc7\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u800c\u975e\u60c5\u7eea\u6216\u5370\u8c61\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u98ce\u9669<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4ece\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u4f46\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u4e0a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b66\u4e60\u98ce\u9669\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u6982\u7387\u65f6\u7684\u5e38\u89c1\u9519\u8bef<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bc4\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8003\u8651\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Scarcity Error \u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u9519\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u7a00\u7f3a\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u5145\u8db3\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u7269\u4ee5\u7a00\u4e3a\u8d35\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4e0d\u7531\u81ea\u4e3b\u5730\u88ab\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u975e\u7406\u6027\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u6b3e\u9650\u91cf\u7248\u7403\u978b\u4e0a\u5e02\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e0d\u60dc\u901a\u5bb5\u6392\u961f\u4e5f\u8981\u62a2\u8d2d\uff0c\u53ea\u56e0\u6570\u91cf\u6709\u9650\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u540e\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cc\u978b\u5b9e\u9645\u5e76\u65e0\u7279\u522b\u4e4b\u5904\uff0c\u4e0d\u503c\u90a3\u4e2a\u4ef7\u94b1\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u671f\u95f4\u4e89\u76f8\u4e70\u5165\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u540e\u624d\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u76f2\u76ee\u8ddf\u98ce<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bc4\u4f30\u7a00\u7f3a\u7269\u54c1\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u88ab\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u8499\u853d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Base-Rate Neglect \u57fa\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\u7684\u5ffd\u89c6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u548c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u4e8b\u7269\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u57ce\u5e02\u670910\u4e2a\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7eff\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\u670985%\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\u670915%\u3002\u4e00\u5929\u665a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u8f86\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u8087\u4e8b\u9003\u9038\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u76ee\u51fb\u8005\u8bf4\u4ed670%\u786e\u5b9a\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u8f86\u84dd\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u3002\u8b66\u65b9\u56e0\u6b64\u5c06\u5927\u91cf\u7cbe\u529b\u653e\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u84dd\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8087\u4e8b\u8005\u662f\u84dd\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u670941%\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u84dd\u8272\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\u53ea\u670915%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8003\u8651\u4e8b\u7269\u5728\u603b\u4f53\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6bd4\u7387\u6216\u5148\u9a8c\u6982\u7387<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u88ab\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u7ec6\u8282\u6216\u63cf\u8ff0\u6240\u5de6\u53f3<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u7406\u6765\u66f4\u65b0\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6536\u96c6\u5168\u9762\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy \u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53cd\u590d\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c31&#8221;\u8be5&#8221;\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u4e8b\u7269\u6709&#8221;\u8bb0\u5fc6&#8221;\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u8d4c\u573a\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7ea2\u8272\u8fde\u7eed\u51fa\u73b0\u4e94\u6b21\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u8d4c\u5f92\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u9ed1\u8272\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u7ea2\u8272\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u592a\u591a\u6b21\u4e86&#8221;\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u65cb\u8f6c\u90fd\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u7ea2\u9ed1\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u90fd\u662f50%\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5bf9\u592b\u5987\u5df2\u7ecf\u751f\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5973\u513f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b69\u5b50\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7537\u5b69\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u7537\u5973\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5404\u4e3a50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u72ec\u7acb\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8868\u9762\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u5e8f\u5217\u6240\u8ff7\u60d1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7406\u89e3\u6982\u7387\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u5982\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u7b49<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u79d1\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7406\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8ff7\u4fe1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>The Anchor \u951a\u5b9a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u505a\u4f30\u8ba1\u6216\u5224\u65ad\u65f6\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff08&#8221;\u951a&#8221;\uff09\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\u6216\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5148\u95ee\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u4ee5 $10 \u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u4e2a\u7269\u54c1\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u613f\u610f\u652f\u4ed8\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u95ee\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u4ee5 $125 \u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ec4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u62a5\u4ef7\u4e3a $19\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ec4\u4e3a $37\u3002\u867d\u7136 $10 \u548c $125 \u90fd\u662f\u968f\u673a\u9009\u62e9\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u663e\u8457\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u4f30\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8c08\u5224\u3001\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7b49\u573a\u666f\u4e2d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\u524d\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u591a\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\u6216\u4fe1\u606f\u6e90<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6839\u636e\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f2\u76ee\u4f9d\u8d56\u6700\u521d\u7684\u5370\u8c61<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8d28\u7591\u522b\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u951a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u4ed6\u4eec\u6846\u5b9a\u601d\u8def<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Induction \u5f52\u7eb3\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6ca1\u6709\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u666e\u904d\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f52\u7eb3\u63a8\u7406\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u89c2\u5bdf\u6240\u6709\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u6240\u6709\u5929\u9e45\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa&#8221;\u5929\u9e45\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u7684&#8221;\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4f46\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u5728\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f52\u7eb3\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u79d1\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u5982\u725b\u987f\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u66fe\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u666e\u9002\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u88ab\u4fee\u6b63\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u6839\u636e\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u505a\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7a81\u53d8\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5f52\u7eb3\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u6613\u4e0b\u7edd\u5bf9\u7ed3\u8bba<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u79ef\u6781\u5bfb\u627e\u53cd\u4f8b\uff0c\u6311\u6218\u65e2\u6709\u5047\u8bbe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4fdd\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u548c\u8c26\u900a\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u65b0\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u548c\u89e3\u91ca<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u505a\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u591a\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9648\u8ff0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u901a\u8fc7\u6f14\u7ece\u63a8\u7406\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u5f52\u7eb3\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u5047\u8bf4<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Loss Aversion \u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u907f\u514d\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u83b7\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u540c\u7b49\u7684\u635f\u5931\u548c\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u635f\u5931\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5927\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u559c\u60a6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5148\u5f97\u5230 $50\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8981\u9009\u62e9\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d4c\u5c40\uff1a\u629b\u786c\u5e01\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6b63\u9762\u671d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u518d\u5f97\u5230 $50\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u53cd\u9762\u671d\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u635f\u5931 $50\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d4c\u5c40\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u62d2\u7edd\u53c2\u4e0e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u5728\u4e4e\u53ef\u80fd\u635f\u5931 $50\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u5f88\u5feb\u5356\u51fa\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u627f\u8ba4\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u7684\u503e\u5411<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u770b\u635f\u5931<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c06\u98ce\u9669\u770b\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u6743\u8861\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6536\u76ca<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6b62\u635f\u4f4d\uff0c\u53ca\u65f6\u51fa\u6e05\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u6295\u8d44<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u57f9\u517b\u957f\u671f\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Social Loafing \u793e\u4f1a\u61d2\u60f0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u56e2\u961f\u5408\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\u5f80\u5f80\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5355\u72ec\u5de5\u4f5c\u65f6\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u642d\u4fbf\u8f66\uff0c\u8ba9\u522b\u4eba\u591a\u505a\u4e8b\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u5c11\u51fa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u5206\u522b\u72ec\u81ea\u548c\u5728\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u62c9\u7ef3\u5b50\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7ef3\u5b50\u677e\u7d27\u5ea6\u4f1a\u88ab\u5355\u72ec\u6d4b\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5728\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u7fa4\u4f53\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2a\u4eba\u8d21\u732e\u4e0d\u6613\u533a\u5206\u6216\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u6210\u5458\u7684\u6295\u5165\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4f5c\u4e1a\u4e2d\u6295\u673a\u53d6\u5de7\uff0c\u6307\u671b\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5b8c\u6210\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u660e\u786e\u754c\u5b9a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u548c\u8d23\u4efb<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5efa\u7acb\u95ee\u8d23\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c06\u7fa4\u4f53\u7ee9\u6548\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u8bc4\u4f30\u6302\u94a9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9009\u62e9\u6709\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u673a\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u6210\u5458<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u57f9\u517b\u56e2\u961f\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u8363\u8a89\u611f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5e94\u8d77\u5e26\u5934\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6301\u7eed\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u6fc0\u52b1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Exponential Growth \u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4f30\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u7ebf\u6027\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u76f4\u89c2\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u6307\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u5a01\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u56fd\u738b\u7b54\u5e94\u7ed9\u53d1\u660e\u56fd\u9645\u8c61\u68cb\u7684\u5927\u81e3\u4e00\u4efd\u5956\u8d4f\uff1a\u5728\u68cb\u76d8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u91cc\u653e1\u7c92\u9ea6\u5b50\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u91cc\u653e2\u7c92\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u683c\u5b504\u7c92\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u662f\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u653e\u6ee164\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u3002\u56fd\u738b\u4ee5\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u91cc\u9700\u8981\u653e2^63\u7c92\u9ea6\u5b50\uff0c\u603b\u6570\u8d85\u8fc718\u4ebf\u4ebf\u7c92\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e2000\u591a\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u5e74\u4ea7\u91cf\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u3001\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u590d\u5229\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6307\u6570\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7ebf\u6027\u76f4\u89c9\u5728\u5904\u7406\u6307\u6570\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b66\u4e60\u6307\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7279\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u8003\u8651\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bf9\u7167\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6848\u4f8b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8c28\u614e\u5bf9\u5f85\u770b\u4f3c\u5f88\u5c0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u957f\u671f\u6765\u770b\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5de8\u5927<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Winner&#8217;s Curse \u8d62\u5bb6\u7684\u8bc5\u5492<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u7ade\u6807\u6216\u7ade\u62cd\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u6807\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u51fa\u4ef7\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6807\u7684\u7269\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u867d\u7136\u540d\u4e49\u4e0a&#8221;\u8d62&#8221;\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u906d\u53d7\u5b9e\u9645\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5178\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u62cd\u5356\u4e00\u4e2a\u88c5\u6709\u949e\u7968\u7684\u7f50\u5b50\u3002\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u67e5\u7f50\u5b50\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u6253\u5f00\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u51fa\u4ef7\u6700\u9ad8\u8005\u7684\u51fa\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f50\u5b50\u91cc\u949e\u7968\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u91d1\u989d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ed6\u4eec\u867d\u7136\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u62cd\u5356\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e76\u8d2d\u3001\u9891\u8c31\u62cd\u5356\u7b49\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u6807\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u9884\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u8ba4\u771f\u8bc4\u4f30\u6807\u7684\u7269\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u51fa\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8b66\u60d5&#8221;\u5fc5\u80dc&#8221;\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u4ef7\u8fc7\u9ad8<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6536\u96c6\u7ade\u4e89\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u4ed6\u7ade\u6807\u8005\u7684\u52a8\u673a\u548c\u8d44\u6e90<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u51fa\u4ef7\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8d62\u8005\u7684\u8bc5\u5492\uff0c\u9002\u5f53\u8c03\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e0e\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u5171\u4eab\u6216\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u6076\u6027\u7ade\u4e89<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Fundamental Attribution Error \u57fa\u672c\u5f52\u56e0\u9519\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e2a\u4eba\u7279\u8d28\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4f4e\u4f30\u60c5\u5883\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u8ba4\u4e3a\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u6240\u4f5c\u6240\u4e3a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4eba\u683c\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u626e\u6f14&#8221;\u6559\u5e08&#8221;\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u8981\u6c42&#8221;\u5b66\u751f&#8221;\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u9879\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5b66\u751f\u56de\u7b54\u9519\u8bef\u65f6\u5b9e\u65bd\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u662f\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u540c\u8c0b\uff0c\u6545\u610f\u56de\u7b54\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u60e9\u7f5a\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\u5230\u5371\u9669\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u8fd8\u662f\u542c\u4ece\u6743\u5a01\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b9e\u65bd\u60e9\u7f5a\u3002\u4e8b\u540e\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u65c1\u89c2\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6b8b\u66b4\u6216\u611a\u8822\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u670d\u4ece\u6743\u5a01\u548c\u73af\u5883\u538b\u529b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u5224\u65ad\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u60c5\u5883\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bbe\u8eab\u5904\u5730\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eba\u7740\u60f3\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5904\u5883<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u8868\u73b0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u907f\u514d\u6839\u636e\u5355\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u5370\u8c61\u5bf9\u4eba\u8d34\u6807\u7b7e<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7528\u540c\u7406\u5fc3\u548c\u5f00\u653e\u5fc3\u6001\u770b\u5f85\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u5bbd\u5bb9\u548c\u7406\u89e3<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>False Causality \u9519\u8bef\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5c06\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ea\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u5956\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6bd4\u666e\u901a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u66f4\u957f\u5bff\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u636e\u6b64\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u83b7\u5956\u80fd\u5ef6\u5e74\u76ca\u5bff\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8bc4\u5956\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9752\u7750\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u66f4\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u83b7\u5956\u548c\u957f\u5bff\u53ea\u662f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u548c\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u9500\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5403\u51b0\u6dc7\u6dcb\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u72af\u7f6a\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u5929\u6c14\u708e\u70ed\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u56e0\u679c\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u63a8\u65ad\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u6216\u5171\u540c\u539f\u56e0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u7167\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6216\u7edf\u8ba1\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u6392\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6536\u96c6\u957f\u671f\u7684\u3001\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u770b\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd0\u7528\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5ba1\u614e\u5730\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Halo Effect \u5149\u73af\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u67d0\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u826f\u597d\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u5c31\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ed6\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u5f88\u4f18\u79c0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u9762\u5370\u8c61\u4f1a\u7b3c\u7f69\u90a3\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u8ba9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e00\u4e2afictitious\u4eba\u7269Alan\u7684\u5404\u9879\u54c1\u8d28\u3002\u4e00\u7ec4\u88ab\u544a\u77e5Alan\u5f88\u6e29\u6696\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7ec4\u88ab\u544a\u77e5Alan\u5f88\u51b7\u6de1\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c&#8221;\u6e29\u6696&#8221;\u7ec4\u8ba4\u4e3aAlan\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u54c1\u8d28\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u806a\u660e\u3001\u52c7\u6562\u7b49\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u4f18\u79c0\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u89c9\u5f97\u5916\u8868\u6709\u9b45\u529b\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u667a\u529b\u3001\u80fd\u529b\u7b49\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u51fa\u8272\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u4e1a\u7ee9\u7a81\u51fa\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u6218\u7565\u3001\u6587\u5316\u3001\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u90fd\u5f88\u5353\u8d8a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e1a\u7ee9\u4e0b\u6ed1\u65f6\uff0c\u53c8\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u5927\u52a0\u631e\u4f10\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u521d\u59cb\u5370\u8c61\u5bf9\u6574\u4f53\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6cdb\u5316<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6536\u96c6\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u3001\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u5168\u9762\u8ba4\u8bc6<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8b66\u60d5\u5a92\u4f53\u5851\u9020\u7684\u660e\u661f\u5149\u73af\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u770b\u5f85\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8a00\u884c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6839\u636e\u5177\u4f53\u60c5\u5883\u548c\u4efb\u52a1\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u9009\u62d4\u4eba\u624d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f2\u4ece\u58f0\u8a89<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Alternative Paths \u66ff\u4ee3\u8def\u5f84<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u4e8b\u540e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5ffd\u89c6\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u8def\u5f84\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8457\u540d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u8f86\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u6709\u8f68\u7535\u8f66\u5373\u5c06\u649e\u5411\u524d\u65b9\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u5de5\u4eba\u3002\u4f60\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c94\u9053\u5f00\u5173\u65c1\u8fb9\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u62c9\u52a8\u5f00\u5173\uff0c\u8ba9\u7535\u8f66\u8f6c\u5411\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u4eba\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u727a\u7272\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u6765\u6551\u4e94\u4e2a\u4eba\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5f53\u65f6\u6ca1\u6709\u62c9\u5f00\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u4e94\u4e2a\u5de5\u4eba\u4fa5\u5e78\u8eb2\u8fc7\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e8b\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u62c9\u5f00\u5173\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u8f9c\u7684\u4eba\u4e27\u751f\uff0c\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u540e\u679c\u6765\u8bc4\u5224\u5bf9\u9519\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u51b3\u7b56\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u591a\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u7ed3\u679c<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e8b\u540e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8bbe\u8eab\u5904\u5730\u56de\u5230\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u60c5\u5883<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6839\u636e\u5f53\u65f6\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u8bc4\u5224\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u63a5\u53d7\u51b3\u7b56\u603b\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u5e76\u975e\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u5173<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5173\u6ce8\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u7ed3\u679c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Forecast Illusion \u9884\u6d4b\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e13\u5bb6\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u9884\u6d4b\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u51ed\u501f\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u800c\u540d\u58f0\u5927\u566a\u3002\u4ed6\u81ea\u4fe1\u6ee1\u6ee1\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ddf\u968f\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4e8b\u540e\u8bc1\u660e\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u9519\u7279\u9519\uff0c\u7ed9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u635f\u5931\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5982\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?client=ca-pub-4747323519006660&#038;output=html&#038;h=280&#038;adk=4124852501&#038;adf=3713588457&#038;pi=t.aa~a.2463717566~i.361~rp.4&#038;w=640&#038;fwrn=4&#038;fwrnh=100&#038;lmt=1776314250&#038;rafmt=1&#038;armr=3&#038;sem=mc&#038;pwprc=8470988372&#038;ad_type=text_image&#038;format=640&#215;280&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2Farticle%2F226&#038;host=ca-host-pub-2644536267352236&#038;fwr=0&#038;pra=3&#038;rh=160&#038;rw=640&#038;rpe=1&#038;resp_fmts=3&#038;aiof=9&#038;asro=0&#038;aiapmd=0.0001&#038;aiapmid=0.0001&#038;aiactd=0&#038;aicctd=0&#038;ailctd=0&#038;aimartd=4&#038;aieuf=1&#038;aicrs=1&#038;fa=27&#038;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQ3LjAuMzkxMi42MCIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJNaWNyb3NvZnQgRWRnZSIsIjE0Ny4wLjM5MTIuNjAiXSxbIk5vdC5BL0JyYW5kIiwiOC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDcuMC43NzI3LjU2Il1dLDBd&#038;abgtt=7&#038;dt=1776314231247&#038;bpp=1&#038;bdt=524&#038;idt=1&#038;shv=r20260414&#038;mjsv=m202604100101&#038;ptt=9&#038;saldr=aa&#038;abxe=1&#038;cookie=ID%3Dfc245d8abe9c6ec3%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MaMZO2d7PK72o6EC5er1GtdRKQYBw&#038;gpic=UID%3D000013c474c50caf%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MZQ3QJkEGo0O7m4uHT5Lo4iLDmxbw&#038;eo_id_str=ID%3D3be00140c07319e2%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DAA-AfjYnAH_i4Ee55q_YXdu0owRi&#038;prev_fmts=0x0%2C960x280&#038;nras=3&#038;correlator=1216387976061&#038;frm=20&#038;pv=1&#038;u_tz=480&#038;u_his=4&#038;u_h=1080&#038;u_w=1920&#038;u_ah=1032&#038;u_aw=1920&#038;u_cd=32&#038;u_sd=1&#038;dmc=16&#038;adx=472&#038;ady=14811&#038;biw=1904&#038;bih=948&#038;scr_x=0&#038;scr_y=11112&#038;eid=95384087%2C95387625%2C95386955&#038;oid=2&#038;psts=AOrYGsn68d_wzXfyky8ORYgQL2PeYMmJhUu9nN5aRUq9KXiVwI8Bm9NVUtLOfmn2jXjH-4z51-74SIQ-kKjMZSIMN4EATyemTSWclAfFSTkhbr1t-Dc&#038;pvsid=6399573039449828&#038;tmod=282173140&#038;uas=3&#038;nvt=1&#038;ref=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2F%25e8%25ae%25a4%25e7%259f%25a5%25e6%258f%2590%25e5%258d%2587&#038;fc=1408&#038;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1920%2C0%2C1920%2C1032%2C1912%2C948&#038;vis=1&#038;rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&#038;abl=NS&#038;fu=128&#038;bc=31&#038;plas=422x856_l%7C422x856_r&#038;bz=1&#038;pgls=CAEQBBoHMS4xMTguMA..&#038;num_ads=1&#038;ifi=3&#038;uci=a!3&#038;btvi=1&#038;fsb=1&#038;dtd=19321<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u900a\u548c\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u76f2\u76ee\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e13\u5bb6\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u81ea\u4fe1\u548c\u6807\u65b0\u7acb\u5f02\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u505a\u597d\u5bf9\u51b2\u548c\u5e94\u53d8\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Conjunction Fallacy \u8fde\u9501\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u5355\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u591a\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u5355\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u7433\u8fbe\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u55ae\u8eab\u3001\u76f4\u7387\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u8070\u660e\u768431\u6b72\u5973\u6027\u3002 \u5979\u4e3b\u4fee\u54f2\u5b78\u3002 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Framing \u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u88ab\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6216\u6846\u67b6\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u601d\u8003\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u5448\u73b0\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u6cbb\u7597\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u544a\u8bc9\u60a3\u8005&#8221;\u624b\u672f\u540e90%\u7684\u4eba\u5b58\u6d3b&#8221;\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63a5\u53d7\u624b\u672f\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6362\u6210&#8221;\u624b\u672f\u540e10%\u7684\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1&#8221;\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u62d2\u7edd\u624b\u672f\u3002\u524d\u4e00\u79cd\u8868\u8ff0\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u540e\u4e00\u79cd\u5219\u805a\u7126\u8d1f\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5f15\u5bfc\u4eba\u4eec\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5ba2\u89c2\u5168\u9762\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u5229\u5f0a\u5f97\u5931\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8868\u9762\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6240\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5b66\u4f1a\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u601d\u8003\u540c\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6d89\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u4e0d\u540c\u8868\u8ff0\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Action Bias 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Omission Bias \u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f53\u884c\u4e3a(ACTION)\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\u5927\u4e8e\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a(INACTION)\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u4f24\u5bb3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u540e\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7531\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6bd4\u7531\u4e3b\u52a8\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u9020\u6210\u7684\u574f\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bb6\u957f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0d\u7ed9\u5b69\u5b50\u63a5\u79cd\u75ab\u82d7\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u611f\u67d3\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u63a5\u79cd\u75ab\u82d7\u540e\u5b69\u5b50\u51fa\u73b0\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u66f4\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5bf9\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u7ed9\u5b69\u5b50\u63a5\u79cd\u75ab\u82d7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u770b\u5f85\u4f5c\u4e3a\u548c\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e3b\u52a8\u548c\u88ab\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5176\u5229\u5f0a\u5f97\u5931\u3002\u5b81\u53ef\u627f\u62c5\u4e3b\u52a8\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u4e3b\u5bfc\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e0d\u5f53\u51b3\u7b56\u8981\u52c7\u4e8e\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Self-Serving Bias \u81ea\u5229\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u6210\u529f\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u624d\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u628a\u5931\u8d25\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u81ea\u5229\u504f\u5dee\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u6210\u529f\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5374\u4f4e\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u5931\u8d25\u4e2d\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u8003\u8bd5\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u597d\u6210\u7ee9\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u8fd9\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u806a\u660e\u624d\u667a\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8003\u7838\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u62b1\u6028\u8003\u9898\u592a\u96be\u6216\u8005\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53cd\u601d\u81ea\u5df1\u51c6\u5907\u5f97\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u6210\u529f\u4e86\uff0c\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u628a\u529f\u52b3\u636e\u4e3a\u5df1\u6709\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53c8\u5e38\u5e38\u8bff\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4eba\uff0c\u6307\u8d23\u56e2\u961f\u6210\u5458\u6216\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?client=ca-pub-4747323519006660&#038;output=html&#038;h=280&#038;adk=4124852501&#038;adf=714931544&#038;pi=t.aa~a.2463717566~i.401~rp.4&#038;w=640&#038;fwrn=4&#038;fwrnh=100&#038;lmt=1776314250&#038;rafmt=1&#038;armr=3&#038;sem=mc&#038;pwprc=8470988372&#038;ad_type=text_image&#038;format=640&#215;280&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2Farticle%2F226&#038;host=ca-host-pub-2644536267352236&#038;fwr=0&#038;pra=3&#038;rh=160&#038;rw=640&#038;rpe=1&#038;resp_fmts=3&#038;aiof=9&#038;asro=0&#038;aiapmd=0.0001&#038;aiapmid=0.0001&#038;aiactd=0&#038;aicctd=0&#038;ailctd=0&#038;aimartd=4&#038;aieuf=1&#038;aicrs=1&#038;fa=27&#038;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQ3LjAuMzkxMi42MCIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJNaWNyb3NvZnQgRWRnZSIsIjE0Ny4wLjM5MTIuNjAiXSxbIk5vdC5BL0JyYW5kIiwiOC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDcuMC43NzI3LjU2Il1dLDBd&#038;abgtt=7&#038;dt=1776314231254&#038;bpp=1&#038;bdt=530&#038;idt=0&#038;shv=r20260414&#038;mjsv=m202604100101&#038;ptt=9&#038;saldr=aa&#038;abxe=1&#038;cookie=ID%3Dfc245d8abe9c6ec3%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MaMZO2d7PK72o6EC5er1GtdRKQYBw&#038;gpic=UID%3D000013c474c50caf%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MZQ3QJkEGo0O7m4uHT5Lo4iLDmxbw&#038;eo_id_str=ID%3D3be00140c07319e2%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DAA-AfjYnAH_i4Ee55q_YXdu0owRi&#038;prev_fmts=0x0%2C960x280%2C640x280%2C640x280%2C640x280%2C640x280&#038;nras=7&#038;correlator=1216387976061&#038;frm=20&#038;pv=1&#038;u_tz=480&#038;u_his=4&#038;u_h=1080&#038;u_w=1920&#038;u_ah=1032&#038;u_aw=1920&#038;u_cd=32&#038;u_sd=1&#038;dmc=16&#038;adx=472&#038;ady=17252&#038;biw=1904&#038;bih=948&#038;scr_x=0&#038;scr_y=17975&#038;eid=95384087%2C95387625%2C95386955&#038;oid=2&#038;psts=AOrYGsn68d_wzXfyky8ORYgQL2PeYMmJhUu9nN5aRUq9KXiVwI8Bm9NVUtLOfmn2jXjH-4z51-74SIQ-kKjMZSIMN4EATyemTSWclAfFSTkhbr1t-Dc&#038;pvsid=6399573039449828&#038;tmod=282173140&#038;uas=3&#038;nvt=1&#038;ref=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2F%25e8%25ae%25a4%25e7%259f%25a5%25e6%258f%2590%25e5%258d%2587&#038;fc=1408&#038;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1920%2C0%2C1920%2C1032%2C1912%2C948&#038;vis=1&#038;rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&#038;abl=NS&#038;fu=128&#038;bc=31&#038;plas=422x856_l%7C422x856_r&#038;bz=1&#038;pgls=CAEQBBoHMS4xMTguMA..&#038;num_ads=1&#038;ifi=6&#038;uci=a!6&#038;fsb=1&#038;dtd=19371<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u624d\u80fd\u548c\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u4f4e\u4f30\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u6210\u8d25\u90fd\u8981\u52c7\u4e8e\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u591a\u4ece\u81ea\u8eab\u627e\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684feedback\uff0c\u542c\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u58f0\u97f3\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u4e86\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e2d\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u8868\u73b0\u548c\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u900a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u81ea\u5229\u504f\u5dee\u8499\u853d\u4e86\u53cc\u773c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Hedonic Treadmill \u4eab\u4e50\u9002\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5e78\u798f\u611f\u6703\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u800c\u6062\u590d\u5230\u57fa\u7840\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6700\u521d\u7531\u79ef\u6781\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u52a0\u85aa\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5e78\u798f\u611f\uff0c\u6216\u7531\u6d88\u6781\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u4e22\u5de5\u4f5c\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u9002\u5e94\u800c\u9010\u6e10\u51cf\u5f31\u76f4\u81f3\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u4eab\u4e50\u9002\u5e94\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u5e78\u798f\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e2d\u4e86\u5f69\u7968\uff0c\u4ece\u6b64\u8fc7\u4e0a\u5bcc\u88d5\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u4ed6\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u65e0\u6bd4\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5e78\u798f\u611f\u53c8\u6062\u590d\u5230\u548c\u4e2d\u5956\u524d\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u9002\u5e94\u4e86\u4f18\u6e25\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u4ece\u7269\u8d28\u4eab\u53d7\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u591a\u5c11\u5feb\u4e50\u3002\u4ed6\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u8d22\u5bcc\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u5e78\u798f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u7269\u8d28\u4eab\u53d7\u5bf9\u5e78\u798f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u957f\u4e45\u7684\u5e78\u798f\uff0c\u8981\u57f9\u517b\u5185\u5728\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u54c1\u8d28\uff0c\u5982\u611f\u6069\u3001\u4e50\u89c2\u7b49\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5bc4\u5e0c\u671b\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u523a\u6fc0\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u8981\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u673a\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e2a\u4eba\u6210\u957f\u548c\u4ef7\u503c\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u5916\u90e8\u5956\u8d4f\u6240\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Self-Selection Bias \u81ea\u6211\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c03\u67e5\u6216\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6837\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u9009\u53d6\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u81ea\u613f\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u81ea\u613f\u6837\u672c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u4eba\u7fa4\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u62bd\u6837\u4e0d\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f51\u7ad9\u505a\u7528\u6237\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u7528\u6237\u5bf9\u7f51\u7ad9\u7684\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u6709\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u7f51\u7ad9\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u7528\u6237\u624d\u613f\u610f\u4e3b\u52a8\u586b\u5199\u95ee\u5377\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u6ee1\u610f\u7684\u7528\u6237\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u6240\u6709\u7528\u6237\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u81ea\u6211\u9009\u62e9\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u7528\u6237\u6ee1\u610f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?client=ca-pub-4747323519006660&#038;output=html&#038;h=280&#038;adk=4124852501&#038;adf=2732610238&#038;pi=t.aa~a.2463717566~i.417~rp.4&#038;w=640&#038;fwrn=4&#038;fwrnh=100&#038;lmt=1776314250&#038;rafmt=1&#038;armr=3&#038;sem=mc&#038;pwprc=8470988372&#038;ad_type=text_image&#038;format=640&#215;280&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2Farticle%2F226&#038;host=ca-host-pub-2644536267352236&#038;fwr=0&#038;pra=3&#038;rh=160&#038;rw=640&#038;rpe=1&#038;resp_fmts=3&#038;aiof=9&#038;asro=0&#038;aiapmd=0.0001&#038;aiapmid=0.0001&#038;aiactd=0&#038;aicctd=0&#038;ailctd=0&#038;aimartd=4&#038;aieuf=1&#038;aicrs=1&#038;fa=27&#038;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQ3LjAuMzkxMi42MCIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJNaWNyb3NvZnQgRWRnZSIsIjE0Ny4wLjM5MTIuNjAiXSxbIk5vdC5BL0JyYW5kIiwiOC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDcuMC43NzI3LjU2Il1dLDBd&#038;abgtt=7&#038;dt=1776314231256&#038;bpp=1&#038;bdt=533&#038;idt=0&#038;shv=r20260414&#038;mjsv=m202604100101&#038;ptt=9&#038;saldr=aa&#038;abxe=1&#038;cookie=ID%3Dfc245d8abe9c6ec3%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MaMZO2d7PK72o6EC5er1GtdRKQYBw&#038;gpic=UID%3D000013c474c50caf%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MZQ3QJkEGo0O7m4uHT5Lo4iLDmxbw&#038;eo_id_str=ID%3D3be00140c07319e2%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DAA-AfjYnAH_i4Ee55q_YXdu0owRi&#038;prev_fmts=0x0%2C960x280%2C640x280%2C640x280&#038;nras=5&#038;correlator=1216387976061&#038;frm=20&#038;pv=1&#038;u_tz=480&#038;u_his=4&#038;u_h=1080&#038;u_w=1920&#038;u_ah=1032&#038;u_aw=1920&#038;u_cd=32&#038;u_sd=1&#038;dmc=16&#038;adx=472&#038;ady=18238&#038;biw=1904&#038;bih=948&#038;scr_x=0&#038;scr_y=17975&#038;eid=95384087%2C95387625%2C95386955&#038;oid=2&#038;psts=AOrYGsn68d_wzXfyky8ORYgQL2PeYMmJhUu9nN5aRUq9KXiVwI8Bm9NVUtLOfmn2jXjH-4z51-74SIQ-kKjMZSIMN4EATyemTSWclAfFSTkhbr1t-Dc&#038;pvsid=6399573039449828&#038;tmod=282173140&#038;uas=3&#038;nvt=1&#038;ref=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2F%25e8%25ae%25a4%25e7%259f%25a5%25e6%258f%2590%25e5%258d%2587&#038;fc=1408&#038;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1920%2C0%2C1920%2C1032%2C1912%2C948&#038;vis=1&#038;rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&#038;abl=NS&#038;fu=128&#038;bc=31&#038;plas=422x856_l%7C422x856_r&#038;bz=1&#038;pgls=CAEQBBoHMS4xMTguMA..&#038;num_ads=1&#038;ifi=7&#038;uci=a!7&#038;fsb=1&#038;dtd=19354<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u8c03\u67e5\u8981\u505a\u5230\u968f\u673a\u62bd\u6837\uff0c\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e2a\u4f53\u90fd\u6709\u540c\u7b49\u673a\u4f1a\u88ab\u9009\u4e2d\u3002\u5c3d\u91cf\u91c7\u7528\u4e3b\u52a8\u9080\u8bf7\u586b\u5199\u95ee\u5377\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u52a8\u7b49\u5f85\u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u3002\u5728\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u8003\u8651\u6837\u672c\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u7167\u603b\u4f53\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Association Bias \u8054\u60f3\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u4e24\u4e2a\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u770b\u4f5c\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u5730\u5047\u8bbe\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56e0\u679c\u6027\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6709\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u81ea\u5df1\u7a7f\u4e00\u4ef6&#8221;\u5e78\u8fd0&#8221;\u7403\u8863\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u652f\u6301\u7684\u7403\u961f\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d62\u7403\u3002\u4ed6\u7531\u6b64\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7403\u8863\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u597d\u8fd0\uff0c\u51b3\u5b9a\u6bcf\u6b21\u6bd4\u8d5b\u90fd\u7a7f\u5b83\u3002\u663e\u7136\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8054\u60f3\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u7403\u8863\u548c\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u65e0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u7403\u961f\u7684\u80dc\u8d1f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u7ade\u6280\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bc6\u522b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53ea\u80fd\u8bf4\u660e\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u5173\u8054\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u5206\u6790\u56e0\u679c\u903b\u8f91\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8868\u9762\u7684\u5de7\u5408\u73b0\u8c61\u6240\u8ff7\u60d1\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8d28\u7684\u8054\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Beginner&#8217;s Luck \u65b0\u624b\u8fd0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5728\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u6280\u80fd\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u80fd\u4fa5\u5e78\u53d6\u5f97\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u65b0\u624b\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0e\u751f\u4ff1\u6765\u7684\u597d\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u89c9\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u53c2\u4e0e\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c0f\u660e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53bb\u8d4c\u573a\u73a9\u8001\u864e\u673a\uff0c\u6295\u51652\u5143\u94b1\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5e78\u8fd0\u5730\u8d62\u4e86500\u5143\u3002\u4ed6\u5bf9\u8d4c\u535a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80af\u5b9a\u6709\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5929\u8d4b\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c0f\u660e\u53ea\u662f\u78b0\u5de7\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u5076\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4ed6\u8d4c\u535a\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u7684\u94b1\u4f1a\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u5076\u5c14\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u5076\u7136\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6210\u529f\u51b2\u660f\u5934\u8111\uff0c\u8981\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u4f7f\u7136\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u91cd\u590d\u5b9e\u8df5\u540e\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u56de\u5f52\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6280\u80fd\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5929\u8d4b\u3002\u65b0\u624b\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u900a\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u6446\u8131\u4fa5\u5e78\u5fc3\u7406\uff0c\u624e\u5b9e\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Cognitive Dissonance \u8ba4\u77e5\u5931\u8c03<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u5931\u8c03\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u540c\u65f6\u6301\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3001\u6001\u5ea6\u6216\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u8212\u670d\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6d88\u9664\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u9002\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f7f\u4e4b\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u76f8\u7b26\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4f4d\u70df\u6c11\u660e\u77e5\u5438\u70df\u6709\u5bb3\u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u4eab\u53d7\u5438\u70df\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u6d88\u9664\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u5931\u8c03\uff0c\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u4e00\u4e9b\u957f\u5bff\u8001\u4eba\u662f\u70df\u6c11\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u501f\u6b64\u8bf4\u670d\u81ea\u5df1\u5438\u70df\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5438\u70df\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?client=ca-pub-4747323519006660&#038;output=html&#038;h=280&#038;adk=4124852501&#038;adf=2329282983&#038;pi=t.aa~a.2463717566~i.441~rp.4&#038;w=640&#038;fwrn=4&#038;fwrnh=100&#038;lmt=1776314250&#038;rafmt=1&#038;armr=3&#038;sem=mc&#038;pwprc=8470988372&#038;ad_type=text_image&#038;format=640&#215;280&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2Farticle%2F226&#038;host=ca-host-pub-2644536267352236&#038;fwr=0&#038;pra=3&#038;rh=160&#038;rw=640&#038;rpe=1&#038;resp_fmts=3&#038;aiof=9&#038;asro=0&#038;aiapmd=0.0001&#038;aiapmid=0.0001&#038;aiactd=0&#038;aicctd=0&#038;ailctd=0&#038;aimartd=4&#038;aieuf=1&#038;aicrs=1&#038;fa=27&#038;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQ3LjAuMzkxMi42MCIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJNaWNyb3NvZnQgRWRnZSIsIjE0Ny4wLjM5MTIuNjAiXSxbIk5vdC5BL0JyYW5kIiwiOC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDcuMC43NzI3LjU2Il1dLDBd&#038;abgtt=7&#038;dt=1776314231258&#038;bpp=1&#038;bdt=534&#038;idt=0&#038;shv=r20260414&#038;mjsv=m202604100101&#038;ptt=9&#038;saldr=aa&#038;abxe=1&#038;cookie=ID%3Dfc245d8abe9c6ec3%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MaMZO2d7PK72o6EC5er1GtdRKQYBw&#038;gpic=UID%3D000013c474c50caf%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MZQ3QJkEGo0O7m4uHT5Lo4iLDmxbw&#038;eo_id_str=ID%3D3be00140c07319e2%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DAA-AfjYnAH_i4Ee55q_YXdu0owRi&#038;prev_fmts=0x0%2C960x280%2C640x280&#038;nras=4&#038;correlator=1216387976061&#038;frm=20&#038;pv=1&#038;u_tz=480&#038;u_his=4&#038;u_h=1080&#038;u_w=1920&#038;u_ah=1032&#038;u_aw=1920&#038;u_cd=32&#038;u_sd=1&#038;dmc=16&#038;adx=472&#038;ady=19522&#038;biw=1904&#038;bih=948&#038;scr_x=0&#038;scr_y=17975&#038;eid=95384087%2C95387625%2C95386955&#038;oid=2&#038;psts=AOrYGsn68d_wzXfyky8ORYgQL2PeYMmJhUu9nN5aRUq9KXiVwI8Bm9NVUtLOfmn2jXjH-4z51-74SIQ-kKjMZSIMN4EATyemTSWclAfFSTkhbr1t-Dc&#038;pvsid=6399573039449828&#038;tmod=282173140&#038;uas=3&#038;nvt=1&#038;ref=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2F%25e8%25ae%25a4%25e7%259f%25a5%25e6%258f%2590%25e5%258d%2587&#038;fc=1408&#038;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1920%2C0%2C1920%2C1032%2C1912%2C948&#038;vis=1&#038;rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&#038;abl=NS&#038;fu=128&#038;bc=31&#038;plas=422x856_l%7C422x856_r&#038;bz=1&#038;pgls=CAEQBBoHMS4xMTguMA..&#038;num_ads=1&#038;ifi=8&#038;uci=a!8&#038;btvi=2&#038;fsb=1&#038;dtd=19345<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bda\u5b9e\u9762\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4e3a\u4e86\u5fc3\u7406\u8212\u9002\u800c\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u4eba\u3002\u52c7\u4e8e\u6539\u6b63\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4e60\u60ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Hyperbolic Discounting \u53cc\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d34\u73b0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u53cc\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d34\u73b0\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u7ed9\u4e88\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u8fdc\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u7ed9\u4e88\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5728\u8de8\u671f\u9009\u62e9\u4e2d\u504f\u597d\u8fd1\u671f\u800c\u975e\u6574\u4f53\u6700\u4f18\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u83b7\u5f97100\u5143\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u83b7\u5f97150\u5143\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u83b7\u5f97150\u5143\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e3a\u5408\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u7acb\u5373\u83b7\u5f97100\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u8de8\u671f\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u53cc\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d34\u73b0\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u8de8\u671f\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u5168\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd1\u671f\u548c\u8fdc\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\u773c\u524d\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u63d0\u9192\u81ea\u5df1\u53cc\u66f2\u7ebf\u8d34\u73b0\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u7684\u773c\u5149\u6743\u8861\u8f7b\u91cd\u7f13\u6025\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>&#8220;Because&#8221; Justification &#8220;\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u8fa9\u89e3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a&#8221;\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u8fa9\u89e3\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u540e\uff0c\u624d\u53bb\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u8be5\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u540e\u5f52\u56e0\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u6b66\u65ad\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u8ba9\u4eba\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u9519\u89c9\uff0c\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u4e86\u5145\u5206\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u80a1\u5e02\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u80a1\u4ef7\u66b4\u8dcc\u540e\uff0c\u5217\u4e3e\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u66b4\u8dcc\u7684&#8221;\u539f\u56e0&#8221;\uff0c\u5982\u5229\u7a7a\u6d88\u606f\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u66b4\u8dcc\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5f80\u5f80\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b&#8221;\u539f\u56e0&#8221;\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u540e\u5f52\u56e0\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684&#8221;\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u8fa9\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u524d\uff0c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u6536\u96c6\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u5206\u6790\u8bba\u8bc1,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u6709\u7ed3\u8bba\u518d\u627e\u8bba\u636e\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u548c\u63a8\u7406,\u4e5f\u8981\u5ba1\u614e\u6c42\u8bc1,\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u4fe1&#8221;\u56e0\u4e3a&#8221;\u5f0f\u7684\u8fa9\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Decision Fatigue \u51b3\u7b56\u75b2\u52b3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u51b3\u7b56\u75b2\u52b3\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u540e\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u54c1\u8d28\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6d88\u8017\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5fc3\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u96be\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u7406\u6027\u3001\u5ba1\u614e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6cd5\u5b98\u5728\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u5ba1\u7406\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u4e34\u8fd1\u4e0b\u73ed\u65f6\u5c31\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u72af\u7f6a\u5acc\u7591\u4eba\u7684\u5224\u51b3\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u75b2\u52b3\u5bfc\u81f4\u6cd5\u5b98\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u7701\u65f6\u7701\u529b\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\u9009\u9879\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c3d\u91cf\u628a\u91cd\u8981\u51b3\u7b56\u5b89\u6392\u5728\u7cbe\u529b\u5145\u6c9b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9700\u8981\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u8981\u9002\u5f53\u4f11\u606f,\u8865\u5145\u80fd\u91cf\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b,\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c3d\u5feb\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a,\u51cf\u5c11\u51b3\u7b56\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Contagion Bias \u611f\u67d3\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u611f\u67d3\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0e\u574f\u4eba\u6216\u574f\u4e8b\u7269\u63a5\u89e6\u8fc7\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u4e5f\u662f\u574f\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u8054\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u538c\u6076\u60c5\u7eea,\u6e90\u4e8e\u6050\u60e7\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53d1\u73b0,\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u7a7f\u4e00\u4ef6\u88ab\u544a\u77e5\u6740\u4eba\u72af\u7a7f\u8fc7\u7684\u6bdb\u8863,\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4ef6\u6bdb\u8863\u662f\u5168\u65b0\u7684,\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u7a7f\u8fc7\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u611f\u67d3\u4e0a\u6740\u4eba\u72af\u7684&#8221;\u90aa\u6076&#8221;,\u5c3d\u7ba1\u90aa\u6076\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u8863\u7269\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?client=ca-pub-4747323519006660&#038;output=html&#038;h=280&#038;adk=4124852501&#038;adf=3736724690&#038;pi=t.aa~a.2463717566~i.473~rp.4&#038;w=640&#038;fwrn=4&#038;fwrnh=100&#038;lmt=1776314250&#038;rafmt=1&#038;armr=3&#038;sem=mc&#038;pwprc=8470988372&#038;ad_type=text_image&#038;format=640&#215;280&#038;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2Farticle%2F226&#038;host=ca-host-pub-2644536267352236&#038;fwr=0&#038;pra=3&#038;rh=160&#038;rw=640&#038;rpe=1&#038;resp_fmts=3&#038;aiof=9&#038;asro=0&#038;aiapmd=0.0001&#038;aiapmid=0.0001&#038;aiactd=0&#038;aicctd=0&#038;ailctd=0&#038;aimartd=4&#038;aieuf=1&#038;aicrs=1&#038;fa=27&#038;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTkuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTQ3LjAuMzkxMi42MCIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJNaWNyb3NvZnQgRWRnZSIsIjE0Ny4wLjM5MTIuNjAiXSxbIk5vdC5BL0JyYW5kIiwiOC4wLjAuMCJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxNDcuMC43NzI3LjU2Il1dLDBd&#038;abgtt=7&#038;dt=1776314231260&#038;bpp=1&#038;bdt=537&#038;idt=1&#038;shv=r20260414&#038;mjsv=m202604100101&#038;ptt=9&#038;saldr=aa&#038;abxe=1&#038;cookie=ID%3Dfc245d8abe9c6ec3%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MaMZO2d7PK72o6EC5er1GtdRKQYBw&#038;gpic=UID%3D000013c474c50caf%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DALNI_MZQ3QJkEGo0O7m4uHT5Lo4iLDmxbw&#038;eo_id_str=ID%3D3be00140c07319e2%3AT%3D1776166253%3ART%3D1776314085%3AS%3DAA-AfjYnAH_i4Ee55q_YXdu0owRi&#038;prev_fmts=0x0%2C960x280%2C640x280%2C640x280%2C640x280&#038;nras=6&#038;correlator=1216387976061&#038;frm=20&#038;pv=1&#038;u_tz=480&#038;u_his=4&#038;u_h=1080&#038;u_w=1920&#038;u_ah=1032&#038;u_aw=1920&#038;u_cd=32&#038;u_sd=1&#038;dmc=16&#038;adx=472&#038;ady=20940&#038;biw=1904&#038;bih=948&#038;scr_x=0&#038;scr_y=17975&#038;eid=95384087%2C95387625%2C95386955&#038;oid=2&#038;psts=AOrYGsn68d_wzXfyky8ORYgQL2PeYMmJhUu9nN5aRUq9KXiVwI8Bm9NVUtLOfmn2jXjH-4z51-74SIQ-kKjMZSIMN4EATyemTSWclAfFSTkhbr1t-Dc&#038;pvsid=6399573039449828&#038;tmod=282173140&#038;uas=3&#038;nvt=1&#038;ref=https%3A%2F%2Ftedcai.cc%2F%25e8%25ae%25a4%25e7%259f%25a5%25e6%258f%2590%25e5%258d%2587&#038;fc=1408&#038;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1920%2C0%2C1920%2C1032%2C1912%2C948&#038;vis=1&#038;rsz=%7C%7Cs%7C&#038;abl=NS&#038;fu=128&#038;bc=31&#038;plas=422x856_l%7C422x856_r&#038;bz=1&#038;pgls=CAEQBBoHMS4xMTguMA..&#038;num_ads=1&#038;ifi=9&#038;uci=a!9&#038;btvi=3&#038;fsb=1&#038;dtd=19358<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u533a\u5206\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5c5e\u6027\u548c\u65e0\u5173\u8054\u7684\u5c5e\u6027,\u4e0d\u8981\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u8054\u60f3\u5c31\u8ba4\u5b9a\u4e8b\u7269\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u574f\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u91cf\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u548c\u8bc1\u636e\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u98df\u54c1\u5b89\u5168\u7b49\u9886\u57df,\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6d01\u7656\u6709\u5176\u5fc5\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Problem with Averages \u5e73\u5747\u503c\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u5224\u65ad,\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u3002\u5bf9\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7247\u9762\u6216\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e8c\u6218\u65f6,\u7f8e\u519b\u6839\u636e\u8f70\u70b8\u673a\u5f39\u5b54\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u98de\u673a\u88c5\u7532\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u540e\u6765\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u73b0,\u80fd\u8fd4\u822a\u7684\u98de\u673a\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e,\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u90e8\u4f4d\u6070\u6070\u662f\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f9d\u636e\u5e73\u5747\u503c,\u800c\u8981\u770b\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>: \u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u770b\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73,\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u5404\u4e2a\u5206\u91cf\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a9\u76d6\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u4e2a\u4f8b\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u66f4\u4e0d\u5177\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u3002\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u9677\u9631,\u5168\u9762\u5730\u6536\u96c6\u548c\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Motivation Crowding \u52a8\u673a\u62e5\u6324<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u52a8\u673a\u62e5\u6324\u662f\u6307\u5916\u90e8\u6fc0\u52b1(\u5982\u91d1\u94b1\u5956\u52b1)\u4f1a\u6324\u51fa\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u673a(\u5982\u5174\u8da3\u7231\u597d),\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u6fc0\u52b1\u65e0\u6548\u751a\u81f3\u9002\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\u3002\u5916\u90e8\u6fc0\u52b1\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u5c06\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4ece\u5185\u90e8\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u5916\u90e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0,\u5f53\u5e7c\u513f\u56ed\u5f15\u5165\u7f5a\u6b3e\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u5bb6\u957f\u665a\u63a5\u5b69\u5b50\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u65f6,\u665a\u63a5\u7684\u5bb6\u957f\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u591a\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f5a\u6b3e\u4f7f\u5f97\u5bb6\u957f\u89c9\u5f97\u53ea\u8981\u4ed8\u94b1\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5fc3\u5b89\u7406\u5f97\u5730\u665a\u63a5,\u6324\u51fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u907f\u514d\u7ed9\u8001\u5e08\u6dfb\u9ebb\u70e6\u7684\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6fc0\u52b1\u673a\u5236\u65f6,\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5185\u5916\u90e8\u52a8\u673a\u7684\u5e73\u8861,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u5f3a\u8c03\u7269\u8d28\u523a\u6fc0\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u7cbe\u795e\u6fc0\u52b1\u3002\u8981\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u4ece\u4e8b\u60c5\u672c\u8eab\u83b7\u5f97\u610f\u4e49\u611f\u548c\u6210\u5c31\u611f,\u6fc0\u53d1\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u529b,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e3b\u89c2\u80fd\u52a8\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Twaddle Tendency \u7a7a\u8bdd\u503e\u5411<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u7a7a\u8bdd\u503e\u5411\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8868\u8fbe\u4e00\u4e9b\u8c8c\u4f3c\u6709\u7406\u3001\u5b9e\u5219\u7a7a\u6d1e\u65e0\u7269\u7684\u89c2\u70b9,\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7f3a\u4e4f\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u63a9\u9970\u65e0\u77e5\u3001\u4e0d\u613f\u627f\u8ba4\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u503e\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a,\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5373\u4f7f\u5bf9\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5,\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u8868\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u75db\u4e0d\u75d2\u7684\u610f\u89c1,\u663e\u793a\u5b58\u5728\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u610f\u89c1\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u9648\u8bcd\u6ee5\u8c03,\u6beb\u65e0\u5efa\u8bbe\u6027\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u8c26\u865a\u82e5\u65e0,\u6562\u4e8e\u8bf4&#8221;\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u4e3a\u4e86\u663e\u793a\u5b58\u5728\u611f\u6216\u63a9\u9970\u65e0\u77e5\u800c\u8bf4\u4e9b\u7a7a\u8bdd\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u9886\u57df,\u8981\u865a\u5fc3\u6c42\u6559,\u5b66\u4f1a\u8bf4&#8221;\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053&#8221;\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u8bf4\u4e9b\u9648\u8bcd\u6ee5\u8c03,\u4e0d\u5982\u591a\u542c\u5c11\u8bf4,\u79ef\u7d2f\u77e5\u8bc6\u540e\u518d\u53d1\u8868\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Will Rogers Phenomenon \u5a01\u5c14\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u73b0\u8c61<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5a01\u5c14\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\u6307\u5c06\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u522b\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u522b,\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ec4\u522b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5904\u4e8e\u4ea4\u754c\u7ebf\u4e0a\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53,\u5bf9\u539f\u7ec4\u522b\u662f\u62d6\u540e\u817f,\u4f46\u5bf9\u65b0\u7ec4\u522b\u662f\u62d4\u5c16\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5b66\u6821\u5c06\u4e00\u4e9b\u5904\u4e8e\u5206\u6570\u7ebf\u4e0a\u7684\u5dee\u751f\u4ece\u666e\u901a\u73ed\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u5dee\u751f\u73ed,\u7ed3\u679c\u666e\u901a\u73ed\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86,\u5dee\u751f\u73ed\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5206\u4e5f\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u3002\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u662f\u53cc\u8d62,\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u603b\u4f53\u6c34\u5e73\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316,\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5212\u5206\u7ec4\u522b\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ee9\u6548\u53d8\u5316\u65f6,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u770b\u5404\u7ec4\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8981\u770b\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u51b5,\u6392\u9664\u5206\u7ec4\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u4e3b\u89c2\u5206\u7ec4\u8c03\u6574\u6570\u636e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5,\u90a3\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5a01\u5c14\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u9519\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Information Bias \u4fe1\u606f\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4fe1\u606f\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u8fc7\u591a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u5e72\u6270\u51b3\u7b56,\u5f15\u8d77\u5206\u6790\u762b\u75ea\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c,\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u641c\u5bfb\u67d0\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u8d44\u6599,\u770b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u548c\u62a5\u5bfc\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fc7\u591a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8ba9\u4ed6\u96be\u4ee5\u6289\u62e9,\u53cd\u590d\u6bd4\u8f83\u7ec6\u5fae\u7684\u5dee\u522b\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u719f\u4eba\u63a8\u8350\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1,\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u641c\u96c6\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u641c\u96c6\u4fe1\u606f\u8981\u6709\u7684\u653e\u77e2,\u6839\u636e\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u9700\u8981\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u5730\u641c\u96c6\u3002\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5904\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u8981\u6709\u6e05\u9192\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6,\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u5ea6\u641c\u96c6\u3002\u5b66\u4f1a\u6ee1\u8db3,\u5728\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u505c\u6b62\u641c\u5bfb,\u679c\u65ad\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Effort Justification \u4ed8\u51fa\u8fa9\u89e3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u4ed8\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u52aa\u529b\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u8d4b\u4e88\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u5927\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u7ecf\u5386\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u65e0\u804a\u7684\u7b49\u5f85\u8fc7\u7a0b\u624d\u80fd\u53c2\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6bd4\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u7b49\u5f85\u7684\u4eba\u66f4\u52a0\u6b63\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5408\u7406\u5316\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u5f71\u54cd\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u662f\u4e24\u56de\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Law of Small Numbers \u5c0f\u6570\u6cd5\u5219<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u7684\u6781\u5927\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u62db\u8058\u7ecf\u7406\u9762\u8bd5\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5e94\u8058\u8005\uff0c\u90fd\u7ed9\u4ed6\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u4ed6\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u804c\u4f4d\u7684\u6c42\u804c\u8005\u90fd\u5f88\u4f18\u79c0\u3002\u4f46\u4e09\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u522b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u8981\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u6269\u5927\u6837\u672c\u91cf\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u884c\uff0c\u8981\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u5ea6\u63a8\u5e7f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Expectations \u671f\u671b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u53d7\u671f\u671b\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f1a\u65e0\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u671d\u7740\u671f\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6539\u53d8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u5e08\u88ab\u544a\u77e5\u4ed6\u73ed\u4e0a\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u662f&#8221;\u9ad8\u6f5c\u529b&#8221;\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u5355\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6307\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u5b66\u5e74\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u771f\u7684\u4f18\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6559\u5e08\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u671f\u671b\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u548c\u9f13\u52b1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u671f\u671b\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u5bf9\u5f85\u8eab\u8fb9\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u4e8b\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u4e3b\u89c2\u671f\u671b\u626d\u66f2\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Simple Logic \u7b80\u5355\u903b\u8f91<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u4e8e\u7b80\u5355\u5316\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u590d\u6742\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7ec6\u8282\u548c\u590d\u6742\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u90fd\u662f\u4ece\u540d\u6821\u6bd5\u4e1a\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0a\u540d\u6821\u662f\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5148\u51b3\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4f46\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u4e0e\u5426\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u80cc\u666f\u53ea\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8981\u5168\u9762\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u5404\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8bd5\u56fe\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u8981\u8fa9\u8bc1\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Forer Effect \u798f\u52d2\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8ba4\u540c\u90a3\u4e9b\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u7b3c\u7edf\u7a7a\u6cdb\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e5f\u53eb\u505a&#8221;\u5b9d\u9a6c\u6548\u5e94&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5f88\u591a\u661f\u5ea7\u8fd0\u52bf\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u4f46\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u53c8\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u8bcd\u8bed\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982&#8221;\u4f60\u6709\u65f6\u5916\u5411\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u5185\u5411&#8221;\uff0c&#8221;\u4f60\u8ffd\u6c42\u53d8\u5316\u4f46\u4e5f\u6e34\u671b\u7a33\u5b9a&#8221;\u3002\u8bfb\u8005\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u8bf4\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6362\u4e2a\u661f\u5ea7\u8bfb\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bbd\u6cdb\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u8981\u6279\u5224\u6027\u5730\u770b\u5f85\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e\u7684\u5bf9\u53f7\u5165\u5ea7\u5c31\u6df1\u4fe1\u4e0d\u7591\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Volunteer&#8217;s Folly \u5fd7\u613f\u8005\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5728\u81ea\u613f\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u6216\u8c03\u67e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u7fa4\u6709\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u62db\u52df\u88ab\u8bd5\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u6709\u5bf9\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u6216\u8005\u6bd4\u8f83\u95f2\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u88ab\u8bd5\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u8ddf\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e0d\u592a\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u63a8\u5e7f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u613f\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6216\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6837\u672c\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8981\u63a8\u5e7f\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e00\u4e0b\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Affect Heuristic \u60c5\u611f\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u559c\u597d\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba8\u538c\u67d0\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\uff0c\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u4e9b\u653f\u7b56\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u4e3b\u8981\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u628a\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u7406\u6027\u5206\u5f00\u3002\u5c3d\u91cf\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u5206\u6790\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8ba9\u4e2a\u4eba\u597d\u6076\u5f71\u54cd\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u60c5\u7eea\u503e\u5411\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8981\u683c\u5916\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8c28\u614e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Introspection Illusion \u5185\u7701\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u901a\u8fc7\u5185\u7701\u83b7\u5f97\u6d1e\u89c1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e86\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5e7f\u544a\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5185\u5fc3\u6df1\u5904\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e7f\u544a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5185\u7701\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u8981\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u900f\u5f7b\u3002\u8981\u865a\u5fc3\u63a5\u53d7\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u4ece\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u540e\u679c\u6765\u8bc4\u5224\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u60f3\u5f53\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Inability to Close Doors \u65e0\u6cd5\u5173\u95ed\u95e8\u6237<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u653e\u5f03\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u603b\u60f3\u7740\u628a\u6240\u6709\u9009\u9879\u90fd\u4fdd\u7559\u7740\u4ee5\u5907\u5c06\u6765\u4e4b\u9700\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u5e38\u5e38\u65e2\u6d6a\u8d39\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u53c8\u8ba9\u4eba\u65e0\u6240\u9002\u4ece\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba1\u5212\u5468\u672b\u53bb\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u5730\u65b9\u90fd\u5f88\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u5907\u9009\u5730\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u72b9\u8c6b\u4e0d\u51b3\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u5e72\u8106\u54ea\u513f\u4e5f\u6ca1\u53bb\u6210\uff0c\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u6d6a\u8d39\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u4e0a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u679c\u65ad\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u9002\u65f6\u653e\u5f03\u90a3\u4e9b\u5907\u9009\u9879\u3002\u660e\u767d\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4fdd\u7559\u9009\u62e9\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u8981\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u60a3\u5f97\u60a3\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Neomania \u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\u72c2\u70ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u6367\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u65e7\u4e8b\u7269\u5931\u53bb\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u65e7\u4e8b\u7269\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6bcf\u6b21\u82f9\u679c\u53d1\u5e03\u65b0\u624b\u673a\uff0c\u603b\u6709\u4e00\u6279\u679c\u7c89\u524d\u8d74\u540e\u7ee7\u53bb\u62a2\u8d2d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u65b0\u673a\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u5c31\u628a\u65e7\u624b\u673a\u5356\u6389\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u65b0\u624b\u673a\u76f8\u5bf9\u65e7\u624b\u673a\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u5927\uff0c\u529f\u80fd\u4e0a\u533a\u522b\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\u3002\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u65b0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4e0d\u7406\u667a\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u7406\u6027\u770b\u5f85\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u76f2\u4ece\u3002\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u8ddf\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u5230\u5e95\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u503c\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u66ff\u6362\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u89c9\u5f97\u65b0\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Sleeper Effect \u7761\u7720\u8005\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5fd8\u8bb0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u77e5\u9053\u67d0\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e45\u800c\u4e45\u4e4b\u4f1a\u5fd8\u8bb0\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5f00\u59cb\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u5219\u5e7f\u544a\uff0c\u58f0\u79f0\u67d0\u79cd\u51cf\u80a5\u4ea7\u54c1\u6548\u679c\u795e\u5947\u3002\u4ed6\u8d77\u521d\u77e5\u9053\u5e7f\u544a\u4f1a\u5938\u5927\u5176\u8bcd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002\u4f46\u8fc7\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5fd8\u4e86\u8fd9\u5219\u5e7f\u544a\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5f00\u59cb\u76f8\u4fe1\u51cf\u80a5\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4f1a\u53bb\u4e70\u6765\u8bd5\u8bd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u65f6\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u5b58\u7591\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5373\u4f7f\u65e5\u540e\u5fd8\u4e86\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u6613\u76f8\u4fe1\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u4e3b\u52a8\u6838\u5b9e\u4e00\u4e0b\u6765\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Alternative Blindness \u66ff\u4ee3\u76f2\u89c6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u8003\u8651\u88c1\u5458\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u8d22\u52a1\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u53ea\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u662f\u88c1\u5458\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u88c1\u5458\u4e24\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u51cf\u5c11\u5de5\u4f5c\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u524a\u51cf\u90e8\u5206\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u591f\u663e\u773c\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u9762\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u53bb\u60f3\u662f\u5426\u8fd8\u6709\u522b\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u54ea\u6015\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4e0d\u592a\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u773c\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u4e24\u4e2a\u5907\u9009\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6362\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Social Comparison Bias \u793e\u4f1a\u6bd4\u8f83\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u62ff\u81ea\u5df1\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u8ddf\u81ea\u5df1\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u8bc4\u5224\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u4ed6\u4eba\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u6da8\u4e8610%\uff0c\u672c\u6765\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\uff0c\u4f46\u542c\u8bf4\u540c\u4e8b\u6da8\u4e8615%\uff0c\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u6da8\u5f97\u5c11\u4e86\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8ddf\u8fc7\u53bb\u76f8\u6bd4\u6709\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u8ddf\u522b\u4eba\u4e00\u6bd4\u5c31\u611f\u89c9\u4e0d\u591f\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8bc4\u5224\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53c2\u7167\u70b9\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u522b\u4eba\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u603b\u662f\u6500\u6bd4\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u9002\u5f53\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eba\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e5f\u662f\u9700\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8981\u8fc7\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Primacy and Recency Effects \u9996\u56e0\u548c\u8fd1\u56e0\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u8bb0\u4f4f\u6700\u65e9\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u9996\u56e0\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u548c\u6700\u540e\u63a5\u89e6\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u8fd1\u56e0\u6548\u5e94\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u9057\u5fd8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u5217\u4e86\u4e00\u5f20\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u8868\u60f3\u8981\u80cc\u8bf5\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u8bcd\u548c\u6700\u540e\u51e0\u4e2a\u5355\u8bcd\u8bb0\u5f97\u6700\u7262\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u603b\u662f\u8bb0\u4e0d\u4f4f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5982\u679c\u8981\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u8bd5\u8bd5\u95f4\u9694\u91cd\u590d\u6cd5\u3002\u628a\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u591a\u590d\u4e60\u51e0\u6b21\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u56de\u987e\u65f6\u98a0\u5012\u987a\u5e8f\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e73\u8861\u9996\u56e0\u548c\u8fd1\u56e0\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u8ba9\u8bb0\u5fc6\u66f4\u52a0\u5747\u5300\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Not-Invented-Here Syndrome \u975e\u6211\u53d1\u660e\u7efc\u5408\u75c7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4f30\u6216\u6392\u65a5\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u521b\u610f\u3001\u65b9\u6848\u6216\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u800c\u9ad8\u4f30\u5185\u90e8\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u70b9\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u51c6\u5907\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u90e8\u63d0\u51fa\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ddf\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u4f46\u516c\u53f8\u9886\u5bfc\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5916\u4eba\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u4e0d\u9760\u8c31\uff0c\u575a\u6301\u8981\u81ea\u5df1\u4ece\u5934\u505a\u8d77\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u6d6a\u8d39\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5c3d\u5982\u4eba\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u8981\u865a\u5fc3\u542c\u53d6\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u8ba4\u771f\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e0b\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u56e0\u4e3a\u662f\u5916\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5c31\u4e0b\u610f\u8bc6\u5730\u6392\u65a5\u3002\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u5916\u90e8\u89c6\u89d2\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u52a0\u5ba2\u89c2\u516c\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Black Swan \u9ed1\u5929\u9e45<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4eba\u4eec\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e60\u60ef\u4e8e\u5173\u6ce8\u5e38\u6001\u5316\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u53d1\u751f\u5c31\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u7684&#8221;\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e70\u623f\u65f6\u53ea\u4f30\u7b97\u4e86\u623f\u8d37\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u53471-2\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u8fc7\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u6da85\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u6309\u63ed\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u507f\u4ed8\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\uff1a<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f46\u5f71\u54cd\u5de8\u5927\u7684&#8221;\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6&#8221;\u3002\u8981\u672a\u96e8\u7ef8\u7f2a\uff0c\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u7559\u8db3\u4f59\u5730\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8981\u6293\u4f4f\u90a3\u4e9b\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Domain Dependence \u9886\u57df\u4f9d\u8d56<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u4e4b\u95f4\u8f7b\u6613\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6,\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ed6\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u533b\u5b66\u4e13\u5bb6\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u533b\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6709\u6e0a\u535a\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6,\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6216\u8005\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u540c\u6837,\u4e00\u4f4d\u8c61\u68cb\u5927\u5e08\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u53c2\u52a0\u6251\u514b\u9526\u6807\u8d5b,\u4ed6\u7684\u68cb\u827a\u4e13\u957f\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u5728\u6251\u514b\u724c\u684c\u4e0a\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u9886\u57df\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u77e5\u8bc6\u5177\u6709\u9886\u57df\u7279\u5f02\u6027,\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u6613\u5047\u8bbe\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u677e\u8de8\u9886\u57df\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u719f\u6089\u7684\u9886\u57df,\u8981\u865a\u5fc3\u5b66\u4e60,\u907f\u514d\u51ed\u76f4\u89c9\u505a\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5bfb\u6c42\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u89c1,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8fc7\u5206\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>False-Consensus Effect \u9519\u8bef\u5171\u8bc6\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u4ed6\u4eba\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6,\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u62bd\u70df\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u8d5e\u540c\u5438\u70df,\u800c\u4e0d\u5438\u70df\u8005\u5219\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53cd\u5bf9\u5438\u70df\u662f\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u652f\u6301\u67d0\u4e2a\u653f\u515a\u7684\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f30\u8be5\u515a\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9&#8221;\u5e38\u8bc6&#8221;\u7684\u7406\u89e3,\u5e38\u5e38\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u6295\u5c04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u770b\u5f85\u95ee\u9898,\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4ee3\u8868\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\u591a\u4e0e\u4e0d\u540c\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41,\u5168\u9762\u4e86\u89e3\u4ed6\u4eba\u60f3\u6cd5,\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u542c\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6,\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u5ba2\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7814\u7a76,\u800c\u975e\u4e3b\u89c2\u81c6\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Falsification of History \u5386\u53f2\u865a\u6784<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4fee\u6b63\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\u7684\u5386\u53f2,\u4f7f\u4e4b\u7b26\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u56de\u5fc6\u5f80\u4e8b\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u5bf9\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u76d6\u68fa\u5b9a\u8bba,\u76f8\u4fe1\u5f53\u65f6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u56de\u5fc620\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56,\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f53\u65f6\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u660e\u667a\u5730\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u540e\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000,\u907f\u5f00\u4e86\u80a1\u707e\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a,\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u5f53\u65f6\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u60f3\u90a3\u4e48\u591a,\u53ea\u662f\u540e\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5408\u7406\u5316\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae,\u5374\u4e0d\u613f\u627f\u8ba4\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u65e0\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5982\u5b9e\u8bb0\u5f55\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u3002\u5199\u65e5\u8bb0\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u529e\u6cd5,\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bb0\u4e0b\u4f60\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u56de\u5fc6\u65f6\u7f8e\u5316\u8fc7\u53bb,\u8981\u5c0a\u91cd\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u8ba4\u771f\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5931\u8bef,\u5438\u53d6\u6559\u8bad,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9e35\u9e1f\u822c\u9003\u907f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>In-Group Out-Group Bias \u5185\u7fa4\u4f53\u5916\u7fa4\u4f53\u504f\u5dee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u504f\u7231\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u5c5e\u7fa4\u4f53(\u5185\u7fa4\u4f53),\u800c\u6b67\u89c6\u5176\u4ed6\u7fa4\u4f53(\u5916\u7fa4\u4f53)\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u5185\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u5bbd\u5bb9,\u5bf9\u5916\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u82db\u523b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u573a\u4e0a,\u7403\u8ff7\u4eec\u4e3a\u5df1\u65b9\u7403\u5458\u53eb\u597d,\u5374\u5bf9\u88c1\u5224\u548c\u5bf9\u65b9\u7403\u5458\u7684\u5931\u8bef\u5927\u52a0\u6307\u8d23\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a, \u652f\u6301\u8005\u5bf9\u672c\u515a\u9886\u8896\u7f51\u5f00\u4e00\u9762,\u5374\u5bf9\u5bf9\u65b9\u9886\u8896\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u5c0f\u9519\u5439\u6bdb\u6c42\u75b5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5185\u7fa4\u4f53\u5916\u7fa4\u4f53\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u8d85\u8d8a\u7fa4\u4f53\u754c\u9650,\u7528\u540c\u7406\u5fc3\u770b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8bbe\u8eab\u5904\u5730\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eba\u7740\u60f3,\u4e0d\u8981\u5e26\u7740\u6709\u8272\u773c\u955c\u770b\u4eba\u3002\u8bc4\u5224\u662f\u975e\u65f6,\u8981\u4e00\u7897\u6c34\u7aef\u5e73,\u4e0d\u8981&#8221;\u53ea\u8bb8\u5dde\u5b98\u653e\u706b, \u4e0d\u8bb8\u767e\u59d3\u70b9\u706f&#8221;\u3002\u57f9\u517b\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u7ef4,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f2\u4ece\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Ambiguity Aversion \u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u538c\u6076<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u8d8b\u5411\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u5df2\u77e5\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9009\u9879,\u800c\u89c4\u907f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u3002\u5b81\u613f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u4e2a\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5c0f\u635f\u5931, \u4e5f\u4e0d\u613f\u5192\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u7ed9\u4eba10\u5143,\u8ba9\u4ed6\u572850%\u6982\u7387\u8d6220\u5143\u548c100%\u786e\u5b9a\u8d625\u5143\u4e2d\u9009\u4e00\u4e2a,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u9009\u786e\u5b9a\u76845\u5143\u3002 \u56e0\u4e3a50%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u6ca1\u628a\u63e1\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5b81\u613f\u5b58\u5b9a\u671f,\u4e5f\u4e0d\u613f\u8e0f\u8db3\u80a1\u5e02,\u56e0\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8ba9\u4eba\u671b\u800c\u5374\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u8fa8\u522b\u771f\u4f2a\u98ce\u9669,\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8868\u9762\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5413\u5012\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019,\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e2d\u8574\u85cf\u7740\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u6536\u96c6\u4fe1\u606f,\u5ba1\u614e\u8bc4\u4f30\u98ce\u9669,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u672c\u80fd\u5730\u6050\u60e7\u672a\u77e5\u3002\u5728\u590d\u6742\u73af\u5883\u4e0b,\u6a21\u7cca\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u5e38\u5e38\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d, \u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u62e5\u62b1\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Default Effect \u9ed8\u8ba4\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u9ed8\u8ba4\u9009\u9879\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\u3002\u6539\u53d8\u73b0\u72b6\u9700\u8981\u989d\u5916\u7684\u52aa\u529b,\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u56e0\u60f0\u6027\u800c\u653e\u5f03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u529e\u7406\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u65f6,\u4f1a\u9ed8\u8ba4\u63a5\u53d7\u5404\u79cd\u5957\u9910\u670d\u52a1,\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8d39\u5fc3\u53bb\u66f4\u6539\u9ed8\u8ba4\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982,\u6bcf\u5e74\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u7eed\u8ba2\u5404\u79cd\u8ba2\u9605,\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u518d\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u670d\u52a1,\u4f46\u5c31\u662f\u61d2\u5f97\u53bb\u6539\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u9762\u5bf9\u9009\u62e9\u65f6,\u4e0d\u8981\u76f2\u4ece\u9ed8\u8ba4\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u4e86\u89e3\u5404\u79cd\u9009\u9879,\u4f5c\u51fa\u7406\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u4e3a\u4e86\u7701\u4e8b\u800c\u653e\u5f03\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5bf9\u5173\u952e\u51b3\u7b56,\u8981\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651,\u4e0d\u8981\u51ed\u60ef\u6027\u3002\u65f6\u523b\u4fdd\u6301\u6e05\u9192\u548c\u81ea\u7701,\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u60f0\u6027\u6240\u5974\u5f79\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Fear of Regret \u6094\u6068\u6050\u60e7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u5c06\u6765\u540e\u6094,\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7406\u667a\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62c5\u5fc3\u9519\u8fc7\u673a\u4f1a,\u6216\u8005\u5bb3\u6015\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb,\u5bfc\u81f4\u884c\u52a8\u504f\u9887\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6709\u4eba\u660e\u77e5\u80a1\u7968\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u5927,\u5374\u8fd8\u662f\u4e70\u4e86,\u56e0\u4e3a\u62c5\u5fc3\u9519\u5931\u66b4\u5bcc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c06\u540e\u6094\u7ec8\u751f\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4eba\u660e\u77e5\u5e94\u8be5\u53bb\u505a\u4f53\u68c0,\u5374\u4e00\u518d\u62d6\u5ef6,\u56e0\u4e3a\u62c5\u5fc3\u67e5\u51fa\u75c5\u6765\u4f1a\u6094\u6068\u3002\u5bb6\u957f\u7ed9\u5b69\u5b50\u62a5\u5f88\u591a\u5174\u8da3\u73ed,\u751f\u6015\u5b69\u5b50\u8f93\u5728\u8d77\u8dd1\u7ebf\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u8fa8\u522b\u5408\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u6050\u60e7\u3002\u673a\u4f1a\u603b\u6709,\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f2\u76ee\u8ddf\u98ce\u3002\u8981\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u548c\u957f\u8fdc\u773c\u5149\u505a\u51b3\u7b56,\u800c\u975e\u60c5\u7eea\u5316\u7684\u4f9d\u8d56\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bb3\u6015\u540e\u6094,\u5c31\u89c4\u907f\u4e00\u5207\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u9002\u5ea6\u7684\u540e\u6094\u662f\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206,\u5173\u952e\u662f\u8981\u4ece\u9519\u8bef\u4e2d\u6c72\u53d6\u6559\u8bad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Salience Effect \u663e\u8457\u6027\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u88ab\u663e\u8457\u3001\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6240\u5de6\u53f3\u5224\u65ad,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5176\u4ed6\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u4f46\u4e0d\u663e\u773c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u9192\u76ee\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6700\u6709\u4ef7\u503c,\u4f46\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u5438\u5f15\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u6b3e\u624b\u673a\u67d0\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\u7279\u522b\u5148\u8fdb,\u4f46\u5176\u4ed6\u529f\u80fd\u5e73\u5e73,\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5374\u4f1a\u88ab\u8fd9\u4e00\u4eae\u70b9\u6240\u5438\u5f15,\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6574\u673a\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u5ba2\u67d0\u6b21\u8bb2\u8bdd\u5f88\u6709\u717d\u52a8\u6027,\u9009\u6c11\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u89c6\u4ed6\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u77ed\u677f\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u4e2d,\u8d1f\u9762\u4f46\u5438\u775b\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u5e38\u5e38\u5360\u636e\u5934\u6761\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5168\u9762\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e8b\u7269,\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u8868\u8c61\u6240\u8ff7\u60d1\u3002\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u8981\u900f\u8fc7\u73b0\u8c61\u770b\u672c\u8d28,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u9192\u76ee\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u53bb\u4e86\u89e3\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u8865\u5168\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u76f2\u533a\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u60c5\u7eea\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u7275\u7740\u9f3b\u5b50\u8d70,\u8981\u7406\u6027\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>House-Money Effect \u5c4b\u5185\u94b1\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6,\u4f1a\u628a\u91d1\u94b1\u6309\u7167\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5e10\u6237\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6765\u8def\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u94b1,\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u610f\u5916\u4e4b\u8d22,\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u6bd4\u81ea\u5df1\u8f9b\u82e6\u8d5a\u6765\u7684\u94b1\u82b1\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5927\u624b\u5927\u811a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8f9b\u82e6\u6512\u4e86\u4e00\u4e07\u5143,\u820d\u4e0d\u5f97\u82b1\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u4ed6\u4e2d\u4e86\u5f69\u7968\u8d62\u4e86\u4e00\u4e07\u5143,\u5c31\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6325\u970d\u4e00\u7a7a\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u628a\u5e74\u7ec8\u5956\u4e0e\u5e73\u65f6\u5de5\u8d44\u533a\u5206\u5f00,\u89c9\u5f97\u5956\u91d1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8086\u610f\u82b1\u9500\u3002\u8d4c\u5f92\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u8d62\u94b1\u65f6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u8fdb,\u56e0\u4e3a\u89c9\u5f97\u90a3\u662f&#8221;\u514d\u8d39\u7684\u94b1&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u6811\u7acb\u91d1\u94b1\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u89c2,\u4e0d\u7ba1\u94b1\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u5982\u4f55,\u90fd\u8981\u7406\u6027\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u628a\u610f\u5916\u4e4b\u8d22\u770b\u4f5c&#8221;\u5929\u4e0a\u6389\u9985\u997c&#8221;,\u8981\u50cf\u5bf9\u5f85\u5176\u4ed6\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e00\u6837,\u7406\u6027\u89c4\u5212\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u89c6\u540c\u4ec1\u5730\u5bf9\u5f85\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u94b1,\u4e0d\u8981\u4eba\u4e3a\u5730\u5212\u5206\u5fc3\u7406\u5e10\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Procrastination \u62d6\u5ef6\u75c7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u63a8\u8fdf\u91cd\u8981\u4f46\u4e0d\u7d27\u8feb\u6216\u8ba9\u4eba\u4e0d\u5feb\u7684\u4efb\u52a1,\u800c\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6b21\u8981\u4f46\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u8bf1\u60d1\u5e38\u5e38\u6218\u80dc\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u62d6\u5ef6\u7684\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u8ba9\u4eba\u9677\u5165\u81ea\u6211\u538c\u6076\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u672c\u6765\u8981\u590d\u4e60\u529f\u8bfe,\u5374\u6574\u665a\u5237\u89c6\u9891\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u51cf\u80a5\u8005\u672c\u6765\u8981\u53bb\u8fd0\u52a8,\u5374\u8eba\u5728\u6c99\u53d1\u4e0a\u770b\u7535\u89c6\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u5bb6\u672c\u6765\u8981\u5b8c\u6210\u7a3f\u4ef6,\u5374\u5728\u7f51\u4e0a\u95f2\u901b\u5230\u6df1\u591c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u540e\u6094\u4e0d\u5df2,\u4f46\u8fd8\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u4e0d\u4f4f\u81ea\u5df1\u3002\u62d6\u5ef6\u8ba9\u4eba\u6c38\u8fdc\u6d3b\u5728&#8221;\u660e\u5929&#8221;,\u5374\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u4eca\u5929\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u62d6\u5ef6\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u539f\u56e0,\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u5bf9\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u548c\u5bf9\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6000\u7591\u3002\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bbe\u9650,\u628a\u5927\u76ee\u6807\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u5c0f\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5956\u60e9\u673a\u5236,\u6fc0\u52b1\u81ea\u5df1\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u8054\u624b\u5171\u540c\u8fdb\u6b65,\u4e5f\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8fc7\u7a0b\u672c\u8eab,\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u6d3b\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Envy \u5ac9\u5992<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5ac9\u5992\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc,\u4ece\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u5ac9\u5992\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u51b7\u9759\u548c\u5ba2\u89c2,\u91c7\u53d6\u6781\u7aef\u624b\u6bb5\u6765&#8221;\u6500\u6bd4&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u540c\u4e8b\u5347\u804c\u540e,\u5fc3\u751f\u5ac9\u5992,\u5f00\u59cb\u52fe\u5fc3\u6597\u89d2,\u6700\u540e\u53cd\u800c\u4e22\u4e86\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5973\u5b69\u770b\u5230\u95fa\u871c\u540d\u724c\u5305\u5305\u540e,\u4e0d\u987e\u8d22\u529b\u53bb\u7f51\u8d37\u8d2d\u7269,\u6700\u540e\u8d1f\u503a\u7d2f\u7d2f\u3002\u5ac9\u5992\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u597d\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u597d\u4f34\u4fa3\u3001\u597d\u623f\u5b50,\u800c\u4e0d\u987e\u81ea\u8eab\u6761\u4ef6\u76f2\u76ee\u6500\u6bd4,\u6700\u7ec8\u8eab\u5fc3\u4ff1\u75b2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u611f\u6069\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u62e5\u6709\u7684,\u800c\u975e\u76ef\u7740\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u8ba4\u8bc6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u6027,\u8d70\u9002\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u9053\u8def\u3002\u8981\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u771f\u8bda\u6c9f\u901a,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6697\u81ea\u5ac9\u6068\u3002\u5b66\u4f1a\u6b23\u8d4f\u4ed6\u4eba,\u4ece\u800c\u6fc0\u52b1\u81ea\u5df1\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u628a\u5ac9\u5992\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6b63\u9762\u52a8\u529b,\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Personification \u62df\u4eba\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u4eba\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6295\u5c04\u5230\u52a8\u7269\u3001\u4e8b\u7269\u3001\u62bd\u8c61\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a,\u8d4b\u4e88\u5b83\u4eec\u4eba\u683c\u5316\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u3002\u62df\u4eba\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u5224\u65ad,\u8ba9\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u80a1\u6c11\u5e38\u8bf4\u80a1\u5e02&#8221;\u53d7\u4e86\u60ca\u5413&#8221;\u3001&#8221;\u60c5\u7eea\u4f4e\u843d&#8221;,\u4eff\u4f5b\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u4e2a\u6709\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u7231\u5ba0\u7269\u5982\u7231\u5b69\u5b50,\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u80fd\u542c\u61c2\u4eba\u8bdd,\u4f1a&#8221;\u62a5\u6069&#8221;\u3002\u8ff7\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u7136\u5728&#8221;\u53d1\u6012&#8221;,\u662f&#8221;\u795e\u7075&#8221;\u5728\u60e9\u7f5a\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u5546\u5bb6\u8425\u9020\u54c1\u724c&#8221;\u4e2a\u6027&#8221;,\u4eff\u4f5b\u54c1\u724c\u6210\u4e86\u987e\u5ba2\u7684&#8221;\u670b\u53cb&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u62bd\u8c61\u601d\u8003,\u770b\u6e05\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u672c\u8d28,\u7a81\u7834\u62df\u4eba\u5316\u7684\u5047\u8c61\u3002\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6da8\u8dcc\u53ea\u662f\u4e70\u5356\u53cc\u65b9\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u7ed3\u679c,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48&#8221;\u60c5\u7eea&#8221;\u3002\u52a8\u7269\u518d\u53ef\u7231,\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u73b0\u8c61\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u89c4\u5f8b,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f&#8221;\u795e\u610f&#8221;\u3002\u4ea7\u54c1\u518d&#8221;\u53cb\u597d&#8221;,\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u5546\u5bb6\u8425\u9500\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u4fdd\u6301\u7406\u6027\u548c\u6e05\u9192,\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u62df\u4eba\u5316\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u6240\u8499\u853d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Illusion of Attention \u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u9519\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b,\u4ee5\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u5173\u6ce8\u591a\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5,\u5b9e\u5219\u758f\u5ffd\u5927\u610f\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8d44\u6e90,\u5206\u6563\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5fc5\u7136\u5bfc\u81f4\u5224\u65ad\u5931\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5f00\u8f66\u65f6\u63a5\u7535\u8bdd\u6216\u53d1\u4fe1\u606f,\u4ee5\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u4e00\u5fc3\u4e8c\u7528,\u7ed3\u679c\u917f\u6210\u4e8b\u6545\u3002\u4e0a\u8bfe\u65f6\u5fc3\u4e0d\u5728\u7109\u5730\u542c\u8bb2,\u4e1c\u5f20\u897f\u671b,\u4e8b\u540e\u5374\u5565\u4e5f\u6ca1\u8bb0\u4f4f\u3002\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e3a\u80fd\u4e00\u8fb9\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e00\u8fb9\u7167\u770b\u5b69\u5b50,\u7ed3\u679c\u4e24\u5934\u90fd\u6ca1\u505a\u597d\u3002\u5728\u5608\u6742\u7684\u73af\u5883\u91cc\u5b66\u4e60,\u4ee5\u4e3a\u80fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u6ce8\u610f\u529b,\u4f46\u5b66\u4e60\u6548\u7387\u5176\u5b9e\u5927\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u627f\u8ba4\u4eba\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684,\u5207\u5fcc\u597d\u9ad8\u9a9b\u8fdc,\u540c\u65f6\u505a\u591a\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u8981\u5168\u795e\u8d2f\u6ce8,\u4ee5\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u5b8c\u6210\u624b\u5934\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u907f\u514d\u5206\u5fc3\u7684\u8bf1\u60d1,\u628a\u624b\u673a\u8c03\u6210\u9759\u97f3,\u8fdc\u79bb\u5e72\u6270\u6e90\u3002\u5408\u7406\u89c4\u5212\u65f6\u95f4,\u7ed9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4efb\u52a1\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u7b97\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u51a5\u60f3\u7b49\u7ec3\u4e60,\u63d0\u9ad8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Strategic Misrepresentation \u7b56\u7565\u6027\u9519\u8bef\u8868\u5f81<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fbe\u6210\u76ee\u7684,\u6709\u610f\u5938\u5927\u6536\u76ca,\u4f4e\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u6210\u672c\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u8bc4\u4f30\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u7ed9\u51fa\u6709\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u7f8e\u5316\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u5938\u5927\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca,\u9690\u7792\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669,\u8bf1\u4f7f\u5ba2\u6237\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u5ba2\u5938\u53e3\u8981\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f,\u5374\u5bf9\u6267\u884c\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u907f\u800c\u4e0d\u8c08\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u5728\u6c42\u804c\u9762\u8bd5\u65f6,\u5938\u5927\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528,\u63a9\u76d6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fbe\u5230\u8bf4\u670d\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u76ee\u7684,\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u5448\u73b0\u6709\u5229\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u575a\u6301\u8bda\u5b9e\u5b88\u4fe1\u7684\u539f\u5219,\u5982\u5b9e\u5c55\u73b0\u5229\u5f0a\u5f97\u5931\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8499\u853d\u4ed6\u4eba\u3001\u9a97\u53d6\u652f\u6301\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8bf1\u60d1\u6240\u9a71\u4f7f,\u8981\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eba\u8d1f\u8d23,\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u63d0\u4f9b\u5145\u5206\u7684\u4fe1\u606f,\u8ba9\u5bf9\u65b9\u81ea\u4e3b\u51b3\u7b56,\u4e0d\u8981\u8bef\u5bfc\u4ed6\u4eba\u3002\u6743\u8861\u957f\u8fdc\u5229\u76ca,\u7528\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bf4\u8bdd,\u5766\u8bda\u9762\u5bf9\u95ee\u9898,\u624d\u80fd\u53d6\u4fe1\u4e8e\u4eba,\u8d62\u5f97\u5c0a\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Overthinking \u8fc7\u5ea6\u601d\u8003<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u5bf9\u95ee\u9898\u60f3\u5f97\u592a\u591a\u3001\u592a\u6df1,\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u5fc5\u8981\u548c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u7126\u8651\u7ea0\u7ed3,\u53cd\u800c\u9519\u5931\u884c\u52a8\u65f6\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c42\u804c\u8005\u5bf9\u4e00\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u53cd\u590d\u6743\u8861,\u8d8a\u60f3\u8d8a\u7ea0\u7ed3,\u6700\u540e\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u9762\u8bd5\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u53cd\u590d\u8bc4\u4f30,\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u5f62,\u7ed3\u679c\u80c6\u602f\u4e0d\u524d,\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u62a2\u5148\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u9898\u601d\u6765\u60f3\u53bb,\u5199\u4e86\u5220\u3001\u5220\u4e86\u5199,\u6700\u540e\u8111\u529b\u67af\u7aed,\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b57\u90fd\u5199\u4e0d\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027,\u5728\u5408\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u679c\u65ad\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5b8c\u7f8e\u4e3b\u4e49\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u601d\u8003\u7684\u6e29\u5e8a,\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e&#8221;\u591f\u597d&#8221;\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41,\u542c\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u89c6\u89d2,\u4e0d\u8981\u95ed\u95e8\u9020\u8f66\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a,\u5c31\u52c7\u5f80\u76f4\u524d,\u4e0d\u8981\u53cd\u590d\u7ea0\u7ed3\u3002\u628a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u884c\u52a8\u4e0a,\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u4fee\u6b63\u548c\u4f18\u5316,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6c38\u65e0\u6b62\u5883\u5730\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Planning Fallacy \u8ba1\u5212\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5b8c\u6210\u4efb\u52a1\u6240\u9700\u65f6\u95f4\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4e50\u89c2,\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u9047\u5230\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7ecf\u9a8c,\u4e5f\u5e38\u5e38\u91cd\u8e48\u8986\u8f99\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210,\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u82b1\u4e86\u4e00\u5e74\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u89c9\u5f97\u590d\u4e60\u4e00\u5468\u5c31\u591f\u4e86,\u4f46\u8003\u8bd5\u524d\u624d\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6ca1\u770b\u5b8c\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u5de5\u7a0b\u5c61\u5c61\u8d85\u671f,\u9884\u7b97\u5e38\u5e38\u5927\u5e45\u8d85\u652f\u3002\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u5a5a\u793c\u3001\u88c5\u4fee\u7b49\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5c61\u89c1\u4e0d\u9c9c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u53c2\u8003\u7c7b\u4f3c\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u7ecf\u9a8c,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u51ed\u4e3b\u89c2\u611f\u89c9\u731c\u6d4b\u3002\u628a\u5927\u9879\u76ee\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u5c0f\u4efb\u52a1,\u5206\u522b\u8bc4\u4f30\u6240\u9700\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u542c\u53d6\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u89c1,\u7279\u522b\u662f\u66fe\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u9884\u7559\u4e00\u5b9a\u5197\u4f59,\u4e0d\u8981\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u5b89\u6392\u5f97\u592a\u6ee1\u3002\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8fdb\u5ea6,\u53ca\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u9884\u671f\u3002\u56de\u987e\u603b\u7ed3\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6559\u8bad,\u8c03\u6821\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u8b66\u60d5,\u4e0d\u8981\u76f2\u76ee\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>D\u00e9formation Professionnelle \u804c\u4e1a\u75c5\u6001<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u957f\u671f\u4ece\u4e8b\u67d0\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c,\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u5b9a\u52bf\u3002\u7528\u60ef\u5e38\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u770b\u5f85\u4e00\u5207,\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u6837\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u72ed\u9698\u4f1a\u9650\u5236\u521b\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4f4d\u6cd5\u5b98\u65e0\u610f\u4e2d\u628a\u6cd5\u5ead\u4e0a\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u5e26\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u751f\u6d3b,\u5bf9\u5b69\u5b50\u4e5f\u50cf\u5ba1\u6848\u4e00\u6837\u76d8\u95ee,\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6e29\u60c5\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5e08\u770b\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u60f3\u7528\u6570\u5b57\u8861\u91cf,\u5bf9\u751f\u6d3b\u5931\u53bb\u60c5\u8da3\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u9500\u552e\u60ef\u4e8e\u5706\u6ed1,\u5374\u5728\u771f\u8bda\u4ea4\u5f80\u4e2d\u5403\u4e8f\u3002\u804c\u4e1a\u601d\u7ef4\u4e3b\u5bb0\u751f\u6d3b,\u5c31\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u4e3b\u52a8\u63a5\u89e6\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6,\u57f9\u517b\u591a\u5143\u601d\u7ef4\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e4b\u5916\u53d1\u5c55\u4e1a\u4f59\u7231\u597d,\u5e73\u8861\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u591a\u4e0e\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41,\u542c\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u5b66\u4f1a\u6362\u4f4d\u601d\u8003,\u7528\u540c\u7406\u5fc3\u770b\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u65c5\u884c\u3001\u9605\u8bfb\u7b49\u4f53\u9a8c\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u62d3\u5bbd\u773c\u754c\u3002\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u6682\u65f6\u8df3\u51fa\u60ef\u5e38\u6846\u67b6,\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u5ba1\u89c6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Zeigarnik Effect \u8521\u52a0\u5c3c\u514b\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u8bb0\u5fc6\u66f4\u6df1\u523b,\u4e5f\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5176\u56f0\u6270\u3002\u5927\u8111\u5e0c\u671b\u627e\u5230\u5b8c\u7ed3,\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53cd\u590d\u601d\u7d22\u90a3\u4e9b\u60ac\u800c\u672a\u51b3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u60ac\u7591\u5c0f\u8bf4\u8bfb\u5230\u4e00\u534a,\u653e\u4e0b\u5f88\u96be,\u8111\u5b50\u91cc\u8001\u662f\u5728\u731c\u51f6\u624b\u662f\u8c01\u3002\u5de5\u4f5c\u6ca1\u505a\u5b8c,\u56de\u5bb6\u540e\u8fd8\u5728\u7275\u6302\u3002\u665a\u4e0a\u5931\u7720,\u8111\u5b50\u4e71\u7cdf\u7cdf\u60f3\u7740\u767d\u5929\u7684\u9057\u7559\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5fc3\u4e8b\u6ca1\u6709\u7740\u843d,\u5c31\u50cf\u60ac\u5728\u534a\u7a7a,\u8ba9\u4eba\u5750\u7acb\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5b66\u4f1a\u9002\u65f6&#8221;\u5173\u95ed\u5f00\u5173&#8221;,\u4e3a\u672a\u5c3d\u4e8b\u5b9c\u5212\u4e0a\u53e5\u53f7\u3002\u5217\u4e2a\u6e05\u5355,\u628a\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u4e00\u4e00\u8bb0\u4e0b,\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u4ea4\u4ee3\u3002\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u7ed3\u675f\u524d,\u505a\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7ed3,\u628a\u672a\u5b8c\u5f85\u7eed\u7684\u4e8b\u8bb0\u5728\u6b21\u65e5\u7684\u5f85\u529e\u6e05\u5355\u4e0a\u3002\u7761\u524d\u68b3\u7406\u5fc3\u7eea,\u628a\u7275\u6302\u7684\u4e8bvisualized\u4e00\u904d,\u544a\u8bc9\u81ea\u5df1&#8221;\u4eca\u5929\u5230\u6b64\u4e3a\u6b62&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Illusion of Skill \u6280\u80fd\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u638c\u63a7\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u80fd\u529b,\u5c06\u5076\u7136\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u8fd0\u6c14\u6210\u5206\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9886\u57df,\u66f4\u6613\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e7b\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6,\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u662f\u51ed\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u773c\u5149\u9009\u4e2d\u4e86\u597d\u80a1\u7968,\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u6da8\u8dcc\u5e38\u5e38\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6599\u3002\u8d4c\u5f92\u5728\u8d62\u94b1\u65f6,\u4ee5\u4e3a\u662f\u9760\u81ea\u5df1\u7684&#8221;\u624b\u6c14&#8221;,\u8ff7\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u6709&#8221;\u81f4\u80dc\u6cd5\u5b9d&#8221;\u3002\u9500\u552e\u4e1a\u7ee9\u597d,\u5c31\u89c9\u5f97\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u672c\u4e8b,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u666f\u6c14\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u6280\u80fd\u548c\u8fd0\u6c14\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u4e0d\u8981\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u6210\u529f\u6848\u4f8b,\u8981\u5168\u9762\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u3002\u591a\u505a\u601d\u8003\u9898\u548c\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u95ee\u9898,\u5c11\u505a\u9009\u62e9\u9898,\u51cf\u5c11\u8499\u5bf9\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u3002\u5411\u4ed6\u4eba\u8bf7\u6559,\u542c\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u89c1,\u4e0d\u8981\u5b64\u82b3\u81ea\u8d4f\u3002\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6301\u8c26\u900a\u6001\u5ea6,\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u6613\u628a\u6210\u8d25\u5f52\u548e\u5230\u4e2a\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Feature-Positive Effect \u7279\u5f81\u6b63\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eecevaluating\u9009\u9879\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u6240\u5438\u5f15,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u6d88\u6781\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u51f8\u663e\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u5f88\u6253\u773c,\u7f3a\u70b9\u5374\u5f88\u9690\u853d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u529f\u80fd\u5f88\u4e30\u5bcc,\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5c31\u89c9\u5f97\u8d28\u91cf\u597d,\u5374\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u529f\u80fd\u5e76\u65e0\u7528\u5904\u3002\u5e94\u8058\u8005\u53e3\u624d\u5f88\u597d,\u9762\u8bd5\u5b98\u5c31\u89c9\u5f97\u4ed6\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a,\u5374\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5176\u7b80\u5386\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7a7a\u767d\u671f\u3002\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u5361\u53f8\u5f88\u8c6a\u534e,\u89c2\u4f17\u5c31\u671f\u5f85\u503c\u5f88\u9ad8,\u5374\u4e8b\u540e\u624d\u53d1\u89c9\u5267\u60c5\u7a7a\u6d1e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790,\u900f\u8fc7\u73b0\u8c61\u770b\u672c\u8d28\u3002\u4ea7\u54c1\u8981\u770b\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u5426\u8fc7\u786c,\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u770b\u82b1\u54e8\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u62db\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u542c\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u81ea\u6211\u5305\u88c5,\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u771f\u5b9e\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u770b\u7535\u5f71\u8981\u591a\u65b9\u4e86\u89e3\u8bc4\u4ef7,\u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u660e\u661f\u9635\u5bb9\u51b2\u660f\u5934\u8111\u3002\u6743\u8861\u5229\u5f0a\u5f97\u5931,\u591a\u7559\u610f\u9690\u6027\u7684\u7f3a\u9677,\u614e\u9632\u88ab\u8868\u8c61\u8499\u853d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Cherry Picking \u523b\u610f\u6311\u9009<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u4ece\u5927\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u6709\u610f\u6311\u9009\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5229\u7684\u70b9,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u70b9\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u8bba\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u53ea\u62a5\u559c\u4e0d\u62a5\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fdd\u5065\u54c1\u5e7f\u544a\u5ba3\u79f0\u51e0\u4e2a\u6210\u529f\u6848\u4f8b,\u5374\u9690\u7792\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u65e0\u6548\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5f15\u7528\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9,\u5374\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ea\u5b57\u4e0d\u63d0\u3002\u8fa9\u8bba\u65f6\u5bf9\u65b9\u53e5\u53e5\u4e0d\u79bb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8bba\u636e,\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u8bba\u636e\u7f6e\u82e5\u7f54\u95fb\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5957\u7528\u540d\u4eba\u540d\u8a00\u6765\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u80cc\u4e66,\u5374\u4e0d\u7ba1\u51fa\u5904\u662f\u5426\u6070\u5f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u8981\u5168\u9762\u6536\u96c6\u8d44\u6599,\u5ba2\u89c2\u5448\u73b0\u8bc1\u636e,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u62a5\u559c\u4e0d\u62a5\u5fe7\u3002\u63d0\u51fa\u89c2\u70b9\u65f6,\u8981\u8bf4\u660e\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u6240\u5728\u3002\u8bc4\u4ef7\u89c2\u70b9\u65f6,\u8981\u67e5\u8bc1\u8bba\u636e\u662f\u5426\u786e\u51ff,\u6709\u65e0\u820d\u5f03\u5bf9\u7acb\u9762\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u5206\u6790\u95ee\u9898\u8981\u5168\u9762\u7ec6\u81f4,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5229\u7684\u70b9\u3002\u4ea4\u6d41\u65f6\u8981\u503e\u542c\u4e0d\u540c\u58f0\u97f3,\u5438\u6536\u591a\u5143\u89c2\u70b9,\u4e0d\u8981\u5750\u4e95\u89c2\u5929\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Fallacy of the Single Cause \u5355\u4e00\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u8c2c\u8bef<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u542b\u4e49<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u7528\u5355\u4e00\u539f\u56e0\u89e3\u91ca\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e8b\u7269,\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u80cc\u540e\u9519\u7efc\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7f51\u7edc\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u89e3\u91ca\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u65f6,\u5e38\u5e38\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a&#8221;\u7f6a\u9b41\u7978\u9996&#8221;,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u6df1\u5c42\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u751f\u8003\u8bd5\u5931\u5229,\u8d23\u602a\u8003\u9898\u592a\u96be,\u800c\u6ca1\u53cd\u601d\u81ea\u5df1\u5e73\u65f6\u5b66\u4e60\u4e0d\u591f\u3002\u80a1\u5e02\u66b4\u8dcc,\u4eba\u4eec\u53ea\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e11\u95fb,\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u957f\u671f\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u7206\u53d1,\u8206\u8bba\u6025\u4e8e\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a&#8221;\u66ff\u7f6a\u7f8a&#8221;,\u5374\u4e0d\u53bb\u63a2\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6839\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d<\/strong>\uff1a\u5206\u6790\u95ee\u9898\u65f6,\u8981\u8fa9\u8bc1\u5730\u770b\u5f85\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u770b\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61,\u8981\u6df1\u6316\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6839\u6e90\u3002\u4e2a\u4eba\u906d\u9047\u8981\u53cd\u601d\u81ea\u8eab\u539f\u56e0,\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u602a\u5916\u754c\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8bca\u65ad\u9700\u8981\u7efc\u5408\u5206\u6790\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u6587\u5316\u7b49\u8bf8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20,\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5316\u7ea6\u3002suspended judgment,\u5e7f\u6cdb\u542c\u53d6\u5404\u65b9\u610f\u89c1,\u624d\u80fd\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8b\u5b9e\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>Intention-to-Treat Error 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a><\/a>News Illusion 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Date:2024\/03\/20\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Cat:<a href=\"https:\/\/tedcai.cc\/%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e6%8f%90%e5%8d%87\">\u8ba4\u77e5\u63d0\u5347<\/a><br>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/tedcai.cc\/article\/author\/1\">balconychy<\/a>\u00a0\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u89e3\u51b3\u8005\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u8005<br>\u672c\u6587\u5730\u5740\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tedcai.cc\/article\/226\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/tedcai.cc\/article\/226<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300aThe Art of Thinking Clearly\u300b\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u4e66\uff0c99\u7ae0\u6bcf\u7ae0\u4e00\u4e2a\u504f 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