{"id":12034,"date":"2026-04-16T12:33:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T04:33:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12034"},"modified":"2026-04-16T12:33:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T04:33:09","slug":"%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84-n-%e7%a7%8d%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e5%81%8f%e5%b7%ae%ef%bc%8c%e6%80%bb%e6%9c%89%e4%b8%80%e6%ac%be%e6%89%93%e8%b4%a5%e4%bd%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=12034","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u7684 N \u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u603b\u6709\u4e00\u6b3e\u6253\u8d25\u4f60"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684 12 \u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee<\/a>\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u8fd8\u662f\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u90fd\u5e94\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u514b\u670d\u5b83\u4eec\u3001\u89c4\u907f\u5b83\u4eec\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

0 \u5f15\u8a00<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u65e5\u5b50\u6ca1\u6709\u5199\u70b9\u5173\u4e8e\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66<\/a>\uff08Behavioral Finance\uff09\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u4e86\u3002\u672c\u6587\u6807\u9898\u4e2d\u7684 N \u65e8\u5728\u8bf4\u660e\u5f71\u54cd\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5355\u9760\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e5f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u5b8c\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7b80\u5355\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5176\u4e2d\u7684 12 \u4e2a\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u540e\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u6269\u5145\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5217\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u8fd8\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u51b3\u7b56\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5927\u8111\u4e2d\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff08cognitive bias\uff09\u3002<\/strong>\u5982\u4eca\u53cc\u5341\u4e00\u53c8\u8981\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u7ed9\u5404\u79cd\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u884c\u4e3a\u655e\u5f00\u4e86\u5927\u95e8\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u9632\u6b62\u53cc\u5341\u4e00\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u6ce2\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6765\u804a\u804a\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wikipedia \u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment<\/strong>, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics.<\/em>
\u8bd1\uff1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u504f\u79bb\u8303\u5f0f\u6216\u7406\u6027\u7684\u884c\u4e3a<\/strong>\uff1b\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u7574\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u5728 Wikipedia \u4e0a\u5217\u51fa\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u8d85\u8fc7 110 \u79cd\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684 12 \u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u5305\u62ec\uff08\u5b57\u6bcd\u987a\u5e8f\u6392\u5217\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e0d\u5206\u5148\u540e\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Anchoring\uff08\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Availability Heuristic\uff08\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Bandwagon Effect\uff08\u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Confirmation Bias\uff08\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Framing Effect\uff08\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Gambler\u2019s Fallacy\uff08\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Hindsight\uff08\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. Insensitivity to Sample Size\uff08\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u6570\u4e0d\u654f\u611f<\/a>\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Outcome Bias\uff08\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u8bef\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  10. Overconfidence\uff08\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  11. Peak-End Rule\uff08\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  12. Selective Perception\uff08\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e0b\u6587\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u7ed9\u51fa\u5b83\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u4e9b\uff09\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u5e2e\u52a9\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u518d\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u4e9b\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6216\u73b0\u8c61\u8bf4\u660e\u5b83\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1 Anchoring<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive bias for an individual to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information offered (known as the “anchor”) when making decisions.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u951a\u5b9a\u6216\u805a\u7126\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u5728\u505a\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56<\/strong>\u5176\u88ab\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u606f<\/strong>\uff08\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u951a\u201d\uff09[\u54ea\u6015\u8be5\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u6240\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u6beb\u65e0\u5173\u8054]\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Anchoring\uff08\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u662f\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u90fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u5148\u9a71 Amos Tversky \u548c Daniel Kahneman \u66fe\u5bf9\u5b83\u505a\u8fc7\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\uff08Tversky and Kahneman 1974\uff09\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u7ec4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5206\u522b\u731c\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u975e\u6d32\u88d4\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u3002\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5f53\u7740\u6bcf\u7ec4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u6b21\u5e78\u8fd0\u5927\u8f6c\u76d8\uff0c\u8f6c\u76d8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a 0 \u5230 100 \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u5927\u8f6c\u76d8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u975e\u6d32\u88d4\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6beb\u65e0\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6309\u7406\u8bf4\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7136\u800c\u7384\u5999\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86 \u2014\u2014 \u7b2c\u4e00\u7ec4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8f6c\u76d8\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a 10\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a 25%\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ec4\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8f6c\u76d8\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a 65\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u9ad8\u8fbe 45%\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u5927\u8f6c\u76d8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e86\u201c\u951a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c600 \u540d\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u5199\u4e0b\u4ed6\u4eec\u624b\u673a\u53f7\u7801\u7684\u540e\u56db\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e76\u540c\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u4f26\u6566\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u533b\u751f\u3002\u5728\u624b\u673a\u540e\u56db\u4f4d\u5927\u4e8e 7000 \u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\u4f26\u6566\u6709 8000 \u540d\u533b\u751f\uff1b\u800c\u5728\u624b\u673a\u540e\u56db\u4f4d\u5c0f\u4e8e 3000 \u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u731c\u6d4b\u4f26\u6566\u6709 4000 \u540d\u533b\u751f\u3002\u7535\u8bdd\u53f7\u7801\u540e\u56db\u4f4d\u548c\u533b\u751f\u4e2a\u6570\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u4eec\u90fd\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u624b\u673a\u53f7\u540e 4 \u4f4d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5728\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5957\u5229\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u5728\u9ed1\u8272\u5546\u54c1\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u5bf9\u513f\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5957\u5229\u6807\u7684\u662f\u87ba\u7eb9\u94a2\u548c\u70ed\u5377\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5dee\uff08\u79f0\u4e3a\u5377\u87ba\u5dee\uff09\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u800c\u6784\u5efa\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7b56\u7565\u65f6\u4eba\u4eec\u7ecf\u5e38\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4ef7\u5dee\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d70\u52bf\uff1b\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u951a\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e0a\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u70ed\u5377\u548c\u87ba\u7eb9\u94a2\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u5408\u7ea6\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u5377\u87ba\u5dee\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u4eca\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5377\u87ba\u5dee\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6781\u503c\u4ece\u672a\u7a81\u7834\u8fc7 -200\u3002\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u6784\u5efa\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u5377\u87ba\u5dee\u5230\u8fbe -200 \u65f6\u505a\u591a\u70ed\u5377\u3001\u505a\u7a7a\u87ba\u7eb9\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5341\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\uff0c\u5377\u87ba\u5dee\u6301\u7eed\u7a81\u7834\u5386\u53f2\u4e0b\u9650\uff0c\u800c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u5386\u53f2\u6781\u503c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u201c\u951a\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20 \u2014\u2014 \u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u5546\u54c1\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u3001\u94a2\u5382\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u7684\u533a\u522b\u7b49\u3002<\/strong>\u5ffd\u89c6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u975e\u6700\u4f18\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u4e8f\u635f\u4e5f\u5c31\u5728\u60c5\u7406\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2 Availability Heuristic<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on<\/em> immediate examples<\/strong><\/em> that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u6377\u5f84\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u6216\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u8d77\u6765<\/strong>\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u793a\u4f8b\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u95ee\u6211\u4eec\u82f1\u6587\u4e2d\u662f\u4ee5\u5b57\u6bcd r \u5f00\u5934\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u591a\u8fd8\u662f r \u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u591a\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u9a6c\u4e0a\u5728\u5927\u8111\u4e2d\u641c\u7d22\u8fd9\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u3002\u4ee5 r \u5f00\u5934\u7684\u6bd4\u5982 return\uff1br \u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u4f4d\u7684\u6bd4\u5982 car\u3002\u5bf9\u8be5\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u4f1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u54ea\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u60f3\u8d77\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8f7b\u800c\u6613\u4e3e\u5c31\u80fd\u60f3\u8d77\u5927\u628a\u4ee5 r \u5f00\u5934\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 rat\uff0croad\uff0cread\uff0cresult\u2026\u2026\uff0c\u800c\u60f3\u8d77 r \u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u4f4d\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u5374\u8981\u8d39\u52b2\u7684\u591a\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\uff08\u9519\u8bef\u5730\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ee5 r \u5f00\u5934\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\u8981\u591a\u4e8e r \u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u4f4d\u7684\u5355\u8bcd\uff0c\u800c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff08Tversky and Kahneman 1973\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u201c\u903b\u8f91\u201d\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7684\u60f3\u8d77\u67d0\u4e2a\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u5f80\u5f80\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u88ab\u8fd1\u671f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u6240\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/strong>\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u8fc7\u5206\u770b\u91cd\u6700\u8fd1\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014\u2014 \u65e0\u8bba\u76c8\u5229\u8fd8\u662f\u4e8f\u635f \u2014\u2014 \u6765\u652f\u914d\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u6025\u4e8e\u56de\u672c\uff1b\u5728\u76c8\u5229\u540e\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7206\u68da\uff08\u4e0b\u9762\u4f1a\u6709\u4e13\u95e8\u4e00\u4e2a\u504f\u5dee\u53eb\u505a overconfidence\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u90fd\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u5728\u968f\u540e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8349\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Barber and Odean (2008) \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8003\u8651\u90a3\u4e9b\u6700\u8fd1\u5f15\u8d77\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982\u8fd1\u671f\u65b0\u95fb\u4e2d\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u5f02\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u5355\u65e5\u5185\u56de\u62a5\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7559\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ed6\u4eec\u51fa\u73b0\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u540c\u6837\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4e2d\u95f4\u3002Lee et al. (2008) \u53d1\u73b0\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u65f6\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5f80\u5f80\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e50\u89c2\uff1b\u800c\u5f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eec\u5219\u76f8\u5bf9\u60b2\u89c2\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u8bf4\u660e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3 Bandwagon Effect<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    The bandwagon effect is a phenomenon whereby the rate of uptake of beliefs, ideas, fads and trends increases the more that they have already been adopted by others.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u53d7\u5230\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u601d\u60f3\u6216\u884c\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u968f\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\u3001\u4eba\u4e91\u4ea6\u4e91\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Bandwagon Effect \u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u540d\u662f\u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u82f1\u6587\u540d\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u592a\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\u7684\u540d\u5b57 \u2014\u2014 Herding\uff08\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u968f\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7fa4\u7ec4\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u81ea\u6211\u52a0\u5f3a\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7fa4\u7ec4\u6781\u5316\u3002<\/strong>\u540c\u6837\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u7ec4\u5185\u88ab\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7ec4\u5185\u7684\u6210\u5458\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u76f8\u4fe1\u540c\u6837\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u67d0\u4e2a\u9009\u4e3e\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u5171\u6709 3 \u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u8005\u8f83\u5176\u4ed6\u4e24\u4f4d\u4f18\u52bf\u663e\u8457\u3002\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u544a\u77e5 3 \u4f4d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c83% \u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9009\u62e9 1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u5173 1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u88ab\u5206\u6210\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5171\u4eab\u7ed9\u5168\u90e8\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u88ab\u968f\u673a\u7684\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94\u4f7f\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u5173\u4e8e 1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5927\u5927\u7684\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8be5\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u4ec5\u6709 18% \u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u8005\u9009\u62e9 1 \u53f7\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6765\u63a8\u6d4b\u5176\u79c1\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8206\u8bba\u800c\u6a21\u4eff\u4ed6\u4eba\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u4ece\u4f17\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u662f\u610f\u89c1\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u4e0e\u5426\u800c\u662f\u8ba4\u540c\u6b64\u610f\u89c1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u591a\u5be1\u3002<\/strong>\u4e2a\u4eba\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u7f8a\u7fa4\u884c\u4e3a\u8bf4\u660e\u4e2a\u4f53\u4e0d\u987e\u79c1\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u91c7\u53d6\u4e0e\u522b\u4eba\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    People’s actions can be totally independent of their own information and totally dependent on their observation of others’ actions or words.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u6216\u8a00\u8bed\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \u4ece\u4f17\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u5927\u8111\u6784\u9020\u6709\u5173\u3002\u795e\u7ecf\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u75db\u82e6\uff08real pain\uff09\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6027\u7684\u75db\u82e6\uff08social pain\uff09\u662f\u7531\u5927\u8111\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u90e8\u4f4d\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u7684\uff1b<\/strong>\u4e0d\u968f\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u793e\u4f1a\u6027\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3001\u4ece\u800c\u5e26\u6765\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u52c7\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u771f\u7406\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u683c\u5916\u53ef\u8d35\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4 Confirmation Bias<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u8bd1\uff1a\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6027\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5730\u56de\u5fc6\u3001\u641c\u96c6\u6709\u5229\u7ec6\u8282\uff0c[\u5ffd\u7565\u4e0d\u5229\u6216\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u8d44\u8baf]\uff0c\u6765\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u7247\u9762\u8be0\u91ca\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e38\u620f\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e2d\u6709\u56db\u5f20\u5361\u7247\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a\u5b57\u6bcd A\u3001Q\uff0c\u6570\u5b57 4\u30017\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u201c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5143\u97f3\u5b57\u6bcd\u5361\u7247\u7684\u80cc\u9762\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5076\u6570\u201d\u5e76\u8ba9\u4f60\u901a\u8fc7\u7ffb\u52a8\u4e24\u5f20\u5361\u7247\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u6211\u662f\u5426\u8bf4\u8c0e\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u7ffb\u54ea\u4e24\u5f20\u5462\uff1f\u522b\u7740\u6025\uff0c\u9759\u4e0b\u5fc3\u6765\u60f3\u4e00\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9 A \u548c 4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u548c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9648\u8ff0\u76f8\u7b26\u7684\u5361\u7247\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u786e\u8ba4\u6027\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bc1\u660e\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b \u2014\u2014 \u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4\u5076\u6570\u7684\u80cc\u9762\u662f\u5143\u97f3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ffb\u52a8\u5361\u7247 4 \u5e76\u4e0d\u8bf4\u660e\u4efb\u4f55\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u7ffb\u52a8 A \u548c 7\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5426\u5b9a\u4f9d\u636e\uff08disconfirming evidence\uff09 \u2014\u2014 \u5982\u679c 7 \u7684\u80cc\u9762\u662f\u5143\u97f3\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u201c\u5143\u97f3\u5b57\u6bcd\u5361\u7247\u7684\u80cc\u9762\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5076\u6570\u201d\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5c31\u50cf\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u5361\u7247\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u505a\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6536\u96c6\u786e\u8ba4\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8bc4\u4f30\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5728\u5206\u6790\u516c\u53f8\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u65f6\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5458\u6709\u65f6\u65e9\u65e9\u7684\u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u4fbf\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef \u2014\u2014 \u52aa\u529b\u5bfb\u627e\u6240\u6709\u80fd\u591f\u8bc1\u660e\u5176\u89c2\u70b9\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u8bba\u636e\u548c\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f7f\u4e4b\u7ed3\u8bba\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff1b\u5f53\u5904\u4e8e\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e4b\u4e2d\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u800c\u662f\u5982\u9965\u4f3c\u6e34\u7684\u5bfb\u627e\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u8ff7\u5931\u81ea\u6211\u3002\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6301\u6709\u5148\u9a8c\u65f6\u7684\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u65b0\u606f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u53cd\u6620\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5168\u8c8c\u800c\u9677\u5165\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5148\u9a8c\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u5f3a\u5316\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/strong>\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u65b0\u606f\u662f\u65e0\u504f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    5 Framing Effect<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    The framing effect is an example of cognitive bias, in which people react to a particular choice in different ways depending on how it is presented.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u5f53\u5448\u73b0\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7279\u5b9a\u9009\u62e9\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Framing Effect\uff08\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u662fProspect Theory\uff08Kahneman and Tversky 1979\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002Amos Tversky \u548c Daniel Kahneman \u5728\u7814\u7a76\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94\u65f6\u4e3e\u8fc7\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff08Tversky and Kahneman 1981\uff09\u3002\u6709 600 \u540d\u60a3\u8005\u611f\u67d3\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u81f4\u547d\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u6551\u6cbb\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709 A \u548c B \u4e24\u79cd\u3002\u65b9\u6cd5 A \u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4 400 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff08200 \u4eba\u83b7\u6551\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5 B\uff0c\u5219\u6709 1\/3 \u7684\u51e0\u7387\u65e0\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4f46 2\/3 \u7684\u51e0\u7387\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u901a\u8fc7 positive framing\uff08\u79ef\u6781\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u4f1a\u6d3b\u4e0b\u53bb\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca negative framing\uff08\u6d88\u6781\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5373\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u4f1a\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09\u5411\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9648\u8ff0\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u7597\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece A \u548c B \u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u5f53\u91c7\u7528 positive framing \u65f6\uff0c\u6709 72% \u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9009\u62e9 A\uff1b\u5f53\u91c7\u7528 negative framing \u65f6\uff0c\u4ec5\u6709 22% \u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9009\u62e9 A\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7ed3\u679c\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u9009\u9879\u5982\u4f55\u5448\u73b0\u80fd\u591f\u6781\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5f53\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5229\uff08positive framing\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u89c4\u907f\u98ce\u9669<\/strong>\uff08\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u7597\u6cd5 A \u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd 200 \u4e2a\u4eba 100% \u83b7\u6551\uff09\uff1b\u5f53\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u635f\u5931\uff08negative framing\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u98ce\u9669<\/strong>\uff08\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u7597\u6cd5 B\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5b83\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u5168\u90e8 600 \u4eba\u4e27\u751f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prospect Theory \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u540c\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6536\u76ca\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u559c\u60a6\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u75db\u82e6\u662f\u559c\u60a6\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff09\uff1b\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4f4e\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u5927\u6982\u7387\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u524d\u8005\uff1b\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4f4e\u4e8f\u635f\u548c\u5927\u6982\u7387\u7684\u9ad8\u4e8f\u635f\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u540e\u8005\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u5728\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u63d0\u524d\u5e73\u4ed3\u80fd\u591f\u5e26\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u8fd9\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u505a\u4e0d\u5230\u575a\u6301\u6301\u6709\u3001\u800c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u63d0\u524d\u5e73\u4ed3\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5728\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8ffd\u6c42\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u603b\u5962\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u56de\u672c\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6309\u7167\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u6b62\u635f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b62\u635f\u9020\u6210\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e8f\u635f\u5c06\u7ed9\u4ed6\u5e26\u6765\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u9664\u4e86\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u4e2d\u4f4e\u9891\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u80fd\u8d5a\u5230\u94b1\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\uff08\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\uff09\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u7b56\u7565\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u62ff\u4f4f\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u5355\u5b50\uff0c\u8ba9\u5229\u6da6\u5954\u8dd1\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5bf9\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u504f\u7231\u6b63\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5927\u654c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    6 Gambler’s Fallacy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa).<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5728\u67d0\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6bd4\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u5f97\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5728\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9891\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff08\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\uff09\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    1913 \u5e74 8 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff0c\u5728 Monte Carlo \u8d4c\u573a\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u4e2d\uff08\u4e00\u5171\u6709 37 \u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u683c\u5b50\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ea2\u9ed1\u989c\u8272\u7684\u683c\u5b50\u5404 18\u4e2a\uff0c\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u7eff\u8272\uff09\uff0c\u5c0f\u7403\u5947\u8ff9\u822c\u7684\u8fde\u7eed 26 \u6b21\u843d\u5230\u4e86\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u683c\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e 6 \u4ebf\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5728\u5c0f\u7403\u4e0d\u65ad\u843d\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8d4c\u5f92\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e4b\u524d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\u592a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0f\u7403\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u843d\u5165\u5230\u7ea2\u8272\u7684\u683c\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f00\u59cb\u75af\u72c2\u7684\u4e0b\u6ce8\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u6cd5\u90ce\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u4e3a\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    \u5f53\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u95f4\u76f8\u4e92\u72ec\u7acb\u4e14\u7b26\u5408\u540c\u5206\u5e03\u65f6\uff0c\u524d\u5e8f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 26 \u8f6e\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\uff0c\u4e5f\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u683c\u5b50\u6bd4\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u548c Regression towards the mean\uff08\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\uff09\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6781\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u6d4b\u91cf\u4e2d\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u9760\u8fd1\u5176\u5747\u503c\u3002<\/strong>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf X \u4e3a 26 \u6b21\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0f\u7403\u843d\u5165\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\u7684\u6b21\u6570\uff0c\u5219 X = 26\uff08\u8868\u793a\u8fde\u7eed 26 \u6b21\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\uff09\u3002\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u5982\u679c\u518d\u8fdb\u884c 26 \u6b21\u8d4c\u5c40\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 X \u7684\u53d6\u503c\u4f1a\u9760\u8fd1 13\uff08\u5373 26 \u6b21\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0 13 \u4e2a\u9ed1\u8272\u683c\u5b50\uff09\u800c\u975e\u5c11\u4e8e<\/strong> 13\uff1b\u800c\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\u518d\u8fdb\u884c 26 \u6b21\u8d4c\u5c40\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u201c\u626d\u8f6c\u201d\u524d 26 \u5c40\u4e2d\u5168\u662f\u9ed1\u8272\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6574\u4e2a 52 \u5c40\u4e2d\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u9ed1\u8272\u5c0f\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6b21\u6570\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u5f53\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 X \u7684\u53d6\u503c\u5e94\u5c0f\u4e8e 13\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u51e0\u6b21\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\u5c31\u4f1a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u8d62\u94b1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u4e8f\u635f\uff08\u6216\u8005\u8fde\u7eed\u76c8\u5229\uff09\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u575a\u6301\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u56e0\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9ad8\u4f30\u6982\u7387\u800c\u8fdb\u884c\u4eba\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4e4b\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9a\u4e49\uff1a\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5e8f\u5217\u6ee1\u8db3 IID \u4e14\u5747\u503c\u4e3a\u6b63\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002<\/strong>\u9488\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u731c\u60f3\uff1a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55 overlay \u7b56\u7565\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u5b83\u7684\u590f\u666e\u7387\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e4b\u524d\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e8f\u635f\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6309\u7167\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u975e\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6709\u65f6\u5e8f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684 overlay \u7b56\u7565\u6765\u6539\u8fdb\u5b83\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6536\u76ca\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u6b65\u5165\u4e86\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    7 Hindsight<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    Hindsight bias is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u662f\u6307\u5728\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u540e<\/strong>\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u8fc7\u5934\u6765\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53ef\u80fd\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u5ba2\u89c2\u4f9d\u636e\u6765\u8868\u660e\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5177\u5907\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4e4f\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2004 \u5e74\u96c5\u5178\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u5973\u6392\u51b3\u8d5b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u961f\u5728 0 : 2 \u843d\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fde\u6273\u4e09\u5c40\u5b9e\u73b0\u60ca\u5929\u9006\u8f6c\u593a\u51a0\u3002\u5728\u5173\u952e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u5c40\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u961f\u66fe\u4ee5 19 : 21 \u843d\u540e\uff1b\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u5c40\uff08\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5236\u80dc\u5c40\uff09\u66f4\u662f\u4ee5 21 : 23 \u843d\u540e\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e0d\u5229\u5c40\u9762\u4e0b\uff0c\u5973\u6392\u51ed\u501f\u987d\u5f3a\u62fc\u640f\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u5b9e\u73b0\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u5728\u4e3e\u56fd\u6b22\u5e86\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u65e0\u6570\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u8005\u51fa\u6765\u9ad8\u547c\u201c\u6211\u65e9\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u5973\u6392\u4f1a\u53d6\u80dc\uff01\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5728\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0cCalvin College \u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u5bf9\u6700\u9ad8\u6cd5\u9662\u63d0\u540d\u4eba Clarence Thomas \u7684\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u300258% \u7684\u5b66\u751f\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u4ed6\u5c06\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u3002\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u6765\u540e\uff0c\u5b66\u751f\u4eec\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u56de\u5fc6\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u66fe\u505a\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u9ad8\u8fbe 78% \u7684\u5b66\u751f\u56de\u7b54\u8bf4\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86 Thomas \u7684\u63d0\u540d\u3002\u65e0\u7591\uff0c\u8fd9\u9ad8\u51fa\u7684 20 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u6765\u81ea\u90e8\u5206\u5b66\u751f\u7684\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u66f4\u662f\u5c61\u89c1\u4e0d\u9c9c\u3002\u6bcf\u5f53\u5927\u76d8\u5927\u6da8\u540e\u8005\u5927\u8dcc\u65f6\uff0c\u6536\u76d8\u4e4b\u540e\u603b\u6709\u6293\u4eba\u773c\u7403\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u51fa\u6765\u603b\u7ed3\u516b\u5927\u5229\u597d\u3001\u4e03\u5927\u5229\u7a7a\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u540e\u4fbf\u795e\u5947\u7684\u5177\u5907\u4e86\u8bc6\u522b\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u662f\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5728 1999 \u5e74\u548c 2007 \u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\u5373\u5c06\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u987e\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u611f\u5230\u5f53\u521d\u6709\u4e9b\u8ff9\u8c61\u662f\u5341\u5206\u660e\u786e\u7684\u3001\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u575a\u6301\u590d\u76d8\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u5fc5\u4fee\u8bfe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba9\u590d\u76d8\u6210\u4e3a\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u7684\u727a\u7272\u54c1\u3002\u76c8\u4e8f\u540c\u6e90\uff0c\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8db3\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u7b56\u7565\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e8f\u94b1\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u5728\u4e8b\u524d\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad \u2014\u2014 \u5373\u4fbf\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u80dc\u7387\u518d\u9ad8\u4e5f\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6452\u5f03\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u9762\u524d\u5fc3\u6000\u656c\u754f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    8 Insensitivity to Sample Size<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    Insensitivity to sample size is a cognitive bias that occurs when people judge the probability of obtaining a sample statistic without respect to the sample size.<\/em>
    \u8bd1\uff1a\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u6570\u4e0d\u654f\u611f\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u6837\u672c\u91cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8ba1\u7b97\u6837\u672c\u7edf\u8ba1\u91cf\u7684\u6982\u7387\u65f6\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Tversky and Kahneman (1974) \u4e2d\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u9547\u4e0a\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u533b\u9662\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5927\u533b\u9662\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5929\u51fa\u751f 45 \u4e2a\u65b0\u751f\u513f\u3001\u5c0f\u533b\u9662\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5929\u51fa\u751f 15 \u4e2a\u65b0\u751f\u513f\u3002\u65b0\u751f\u513f\u7684\u6027\u522b\u4e2d\u7537\u5973\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6bcf\u5929\u5404\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u5747\u4e0b\u6765\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5404\u5360 50%\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u533b\u9662\u5206\u522b\u8bb0\u5f55\u65b0\u751f\u513f\u4e2d 60% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u65f6\u7537\u5a74\u7684\u65e5\u671f\u3002\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u54ea\u5bb6\u533b\u9662\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u66f4\u591a\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • A. \u5927\u533b\u9662<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • B. \u5c0f\u533b\u9662<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • C. \u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\uff08\u65e5\u5b50\u6570\u5dee\u522b\u5728 5% \u4ee5\u5185\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c56% \u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u4e86 C\uff0c\u800c A \u548c B \u7684\u56de\u7b54\u8005\u5404\u6709 22%\u3002\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u53ef\u77e5\uff0c\u5927\u533b\u9662\u7684\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u751f\u513f\u4e2d\u7537\u5a74\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6bd4\u5c0f\u533b\u9662\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u8fd1 50%\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u7b54\u6848\u5e94\u8be5\u662f B\u3002\u63a5\u8fd1 78% \u7684\u56de\u7b54\u8005\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u6b63\u786e\u8003\u8651\u6837\u672c\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u6837\u6807\u9898\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff1a\u300a\u5927\u6570\u636e\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60 XX \u6708\u5927\u76d8\u600e\u4e48\u8d70\u300b\u3001\u300a\u5927\u6570\u636e\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60 XX \u8282\u540e\u662f\u6da8\u662f\u8dcc\u300b\u3002\u70b9\u5f00\u4e00\u770b\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u5927\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5171\u5341\u6765\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u70b9\u3002\u5bf9\u6837\u672c\u6570\u636e\u4e0d\u654f\u611f\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u6837\u672c\u70b9\u975e\u5e38\u5c11\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6837\u672c\u70b9\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff08Law of Large Numbers\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u79c0\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff1b\u800c\u5c0f\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff08Law of Small Numbers\uff09\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/strong>\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u6b21\u6570\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u3002\u4ec5\u5728\u6709\u9650\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u540e\u5c31\u6025\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f88\u591a\u4e2d\u4f4e\u9891\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u9891\u7b56\u7565\u4e00\u5e74\u624d\u6709 52 \u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u9891\u7b56\u7565\u4e00\u5e74\u66f4\u662f\u53ea\u6709 12 \u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5728\u6837\u672c\u5916\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u591f\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5426\u5931\u6548\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u6765\u81ea\u6295\u8d44\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u5f8b\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u4fe1\u4ef0\u6765\u8f85\u52a9\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u4ee5\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165 2018 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u90fd\u4e0d\u597d\u505a\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u8dcc\u8dcc\u4e0d\u4f11\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u6bd5\u7adf\u7ecf\u53d7\u4f4f\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u8003\u9a8c\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\u8868\u73b0\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u64bc\u52a8\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5185\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u575a\u6301\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u6b63\u5982 AQR \u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba Cliff Asness \u8bf4\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      Let’s all be nicer to financial theory. If we stick with it long enough, it will probably be nice to us.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      9 Outcome Bias<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n

      The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.<\/em>
      \u8bd1\uff1a\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u8bef\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u4ee5\u7ed3\u679c\u5224\u65ad\u5f53\u521d\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      Baron and Hershey (1988) \u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e2a case study\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a 55 \u5c81\u7684\u5fc3\u810f\u75c5\u60a3\u8005\u9700\u8981\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u8fdb\u884c\u624b\u672f\u6cbb\u7597\u3002\u5982\u679c\u624b\u672f\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u75c5\u60c5\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u6781\u5927\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u4f1a\u4ece 65 \u5c81\u5ef6\u957f\u81f3 70 \u5c81\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u624b\u672f\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669 \u2014\u2014 \u5728\u6240\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u624b\u672f\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709 8% \u7684\u60a3\u8005\u624b\u672f\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u5728\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u60a3\u8005\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u533b\u751f\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fdb\u884c\u624b\u672f\u3002\u8bf7\u7ed9\u533b\u751f\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6253\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u8db3\u591f\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u7ed9\u533b\u751f\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6253\u5206\u65f6\u5e94\u8be5\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u8003\u8651\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u56e0\u7d20 \u2014\u2014 \u6bd4\u5982\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u624b\u672f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3001\u624b\u672f\u6210\u529f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u76ca\u5904\u3001\u624b\u672f\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7b49\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6253\u5206\u5e94\u8be5\u548c\u624b\u672f\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u51b3\u7b56\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a case study \u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u624b\u672f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u6210\u529f\u65f6\uff0c\u533b\u751f\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u8981\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u624b\u672f\u5931\u8d25\u65f6\u533b\u751f\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\u504f\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u6253\u7834\u8fd9\u4e2a\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5728\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u597d\u574f\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u91cd\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/strong>\u597d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b + \u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c = \u5e94\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff1b\u597d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b + \u574f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c = \u574f\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u867d\u7136\u597d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u574f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u5426\u5b9a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u5546\u54c1\u671f\u8d27\u754c\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u795e\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5b58\u5728 \u2014\u2014 Mr. Fairy\uff08\u8fd9\u662f\u522b\u540d\uff0c\u771f\u540d\u4e0d\u8be6\uff09\u3002\u5728 2000 \u5e74\u65e5\u672c\u4e3e\u529e\u7684 ROBBINS-TAICOM \u671f\u8d27\u51a0\u519b\u8d5b\u4e0a\uff0cFairy \u4e00\u6218\u6210\u540d\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u51a0\u519b\uff0c\u5728\u5386\u65f6\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 1000% \u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u968f\u540e\u7684\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\u53c8\u4e24\u6b21\u593a\u51a0\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u5206\u522b\u4e3a 709% \u548c 1131%\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4ed6\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u593a\u51a0\u4e0d\u662f\u5076\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u574a\u95f4\u6709\u4e00\u672c\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86 Fairy \u5728\u6bd4\u8d5b\u4e2d\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5fd7\uff0c\u8bfb\u8fc7\u4e4b\u540e\u7ed9\u4eba\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u611f\u53d7\u662f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002\u4ed6\u603b\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u770b\u5f85\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u8fd0\u6c14\u800c\u975e\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u9a6c\u4e0a\u53cd\u7701\u800c\u975e\u6d0b\u6d0b\u81ea\u5f97\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fbf\u662f Fairy \u6700\u503c\u5f97\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u63a7\u5236\u597d\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u800c\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5c0a\u91cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e25\u8c28\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u5c31\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u5f62\u6210\u597d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      10 Overconfidence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n

      The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person’s subjective confidence in his or her judgements is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements.<\/em>
      \u8bd1\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u504f\u89c1\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u89c1\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u5224\u65ad[\u80fd\u529b]\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u5fc3\u603b\u662f\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8be5\u5224\u65ad[\u80fd\u529b]\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u51c6\u786e\u6027[\u6c34\u5e73]\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0e\u751f\u4ff1\u6765\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5bf9 600 \u540d\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u7684\u8c03\u7814\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709 74% \u7684\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6bd4\u522b\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u66f4\u597d\uff08\u8fd9\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7 50%\uff09\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u4fe1\u606f\u8fc7\u8f7d\u80fd\u591f\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/strong>\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c8 \u4f4d\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u8d4c\u9a6c\u8005\u4f7f\u7528 88 \u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u9274\u522b\u9a6c\u5339\u7684\u597d\u574f\uff08\u7c7b\u4f3c\u591a\u56e0\u5b50\u9009\u80a1\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u6309\u5176\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9009\u8d5b\u9a6c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u6392\u5e8f\u3002\u5728\u968f\u540e\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d4c\u9a6c\u8005\u9996\u5148\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684 5 \u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u6765\u6311\u9009\u9a6c\u5339\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u4e2a\u6570\u589e\u52a0\u5230 10 \u4e2a\u300115 \u4e2a\u3001\u4ee5\u6b64\u7c7b\u63a8\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5230 40 \u4e2a\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d4c\u9a6c\u8005\u6311\u51fa\u4f18\u79c0\u9a6c\u5339\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u968f\u7740\u4f7f\u7528\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2a\u6570\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7528 5 \u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u9009\u51fa\u9a6c\u5339\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u7528 40 \u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u9009\u51fa\u9a6c\u5339\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u5e76\u65e0\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u663e\u8457\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u968f\u7740\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u589e\u591a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5374\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e25\u91cd\u540e\u679c\u662f illusion of control<\/strong> \u2014\u2014 \u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u975e\u5e38\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u504f\u5dee\uff08\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u72af\u8fc7\uff09\u3002\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8fde\u7eed\u51fa\u73b0\u76c8\u5229\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u89c9\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u6216\u8005\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u522b\u4eba\u6ca1\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u5185\u5728\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u89c9\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u4e0d\u987e\u63a7\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u3001\u5e72\u9884\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u4ed3\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5e7b\u60f3\u7834\u706d\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u4ed6\u7684\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0cillusion of control \u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5927\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/strong>\u6bd4\u5982\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6254\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8fde\u7eed\u731c\u5bf9\u4e86\u51e0\u6b21\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4f1a\u89c9\u7740\u4ed6\u662f\u201c\u5929\u9009\u4e4b\u4eba\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u6254\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728 Insensitivity to sample size \u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\u4e86 Law of Small Numbers\u3002\u5f53\u6837\u672c\u6570\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u76c8\u5229\uff08\u6216\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\u5747\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u663e\u8457\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7406\u6027\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e94\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3001\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      11 Peak-End Rule<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n

      The peak\u2013end rule is a psychological heuristic in which people judge an experience largely based on how they felt at its peak and at its end, rather than based on the total sum or average of every moment of the experience.<\/em>
      \u8bd1\uff1a\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u542f\u53d1\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f53\u9a8c\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f53\u9a8c\u5728\u5cf0\u503c\u65f6\u548c\u5728\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u7684\u611f\u53d7\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6574\u4e2a\u4f53\u9a8c\u671f\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u611f\u53d7\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      \u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6709\u4e9b\u62d7\u53e3\uff0c\u6765\u770b\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u4e0a\u4e0b\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5e26\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u3002\u4ece\u4f53\u9a8c\u503c\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\u548c\u7ec8\u70b9\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u503c\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\u4f53\u9a8c\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 Peak \u548c End \u4e24\u70b9\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u503c\u6765\u8bc4\u4ef7\u6574\u6bb5\u4f53\u9a8c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u56fe\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5e26\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      \u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5927\u8111\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bb0\u4f4f\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4ece\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u8bb0\u4f4f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1b\u8bb0\u4f4f\u6700\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff08negative peak\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u6765\u907f\u514d\u5b83\u4eec\uff1b\u8bb0\u4f4f\u6700\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff08positive peak\uff09\u80fd\u591f\u6307\u5f15\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u901a\u8fc7\u52aa\u529b\u83b7\u5f97\u5b83\u4eec\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u4eca\u5e74\u5341\u4e00\u957f\u5047\u6211\u53bb\u4e86\u4e00\u8d9f\u4e0a\u6d77\uff0c\u767b\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e00\u9ad8\u697c\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5927\u53a6\u4fef\u77b0\u9ec4\u6d66\u6c5f\u591c\u666f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u591a\uff0c\u6392\u961f\u767b\u9876\u82b1\u8d39\u4e86\u5927\u6982 90 \u5206\u949f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u767b\u4e0a\u53bb\u4e4b\u540e\u8d4f\u666f\u3001\u62cd\u7167\u4ec5\u82b1\u8d39\u4e0d\u5230 30 \u5206\u949f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8ba9\u6211\u56de\u5fc6\u8fd9\u6bb5\u7ecf\u5386\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u4ece\u6211\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u8df3\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u9ec4\u6d66\u6c5f\u4e24\u5cb8\u58ee\u7f8e\u7684\u591c\u666f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u559c\u60a6\uff08peak moment\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u90a3\u770b\u4f3c\u9065\u9065\u65e0\u671f\u7684\u6392\u961f\u7b49\u5019\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7531 Kahneman et al. (1993) \u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7248\u672c\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4f53\u9a8c\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u53cc\u624b\u6d78\u6ce1\u5728 14 \u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u51c9\u6c34\u4e2d\u5185\u5e76\u575a\u6301 60 \u79d2\uff1b\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u540c\u6837\u5148\u91cd\u590d\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5728 60 \u79d2\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u88ab\u8981\u6c42\u7ee7\u7eed\u575a\u6301 30 \u79d2\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6c34\u6e29\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u7684 15 \u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u591a\u4e86 30 \u79d2\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4f53\u9a8c\u65f6\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7ed3\u5c3e\uff0c\u6c34\u6e29\u662f 15 \u5ea6\u3001\u8f83\u7248\u672c\u4e00\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86 1 \u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u4f4e\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u533b\u9662\u7684\u6cbb\u7597\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5728\u6cbb\u7597\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u60a3\u8005\u603b\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5cf0\u503c\u65f6\u7684\u75bc\u75db\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u7684\u75bc\u75db\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6765\u8bc4\u4ef7\u8be5\u6cbb\u7597\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u4e0d\u9002\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1b\u65e0\u8bba\u6cbb\u7597\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u75bc\u75db\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u957f\u77ed\u6216\u53d8\u5316\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff08Redelmeier and Kahneman 1996\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65f6\u5e38\u7531\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u611f\u53d7\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • \u5927\u76d8\u8d70\u51fa\u4e86\u5012 V \u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u5f53\u5929\u867d\u7136\u5f55\u5f97\u6b63\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6536\u76d8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8f83\u65e5\u5185\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u5dee\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • \u5927\u76d8\u8d70\u51fa\u4e86 V \u5b57\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u5f53\u5929\u867d\u7136\u5f55\u5f97\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u8f83\u5f53\u5929\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u7740\u5b9e\u53cd\u5f39\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        \u7531\u4e8e\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u5c3d\u7ba1\u662f\u6b63\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u662f\u5927\u76d8\u4ece\u6700\u9ad8\u70b9\u5230\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5931\u843d\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u5c3d\u7ba1\u662f\u8d1f\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u662f\u4ece\u6700\u4f4e\u70b9\u5230\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u4e4b\u95f4\u5f3a\u52bf\u53cd\u5f39\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6170\u85c9\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u4f53\u9a8c\u90fd\u662f\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5ba2\u89c2\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u5e94\u8be5\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6613\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u975e peak \u65f6\u523b\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6d6e\u76c8\uff08\u4e8f\uff09\u968f\u6295\u8d44\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9891\u7e41\u770b\u76d8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5219\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8e0f\u5165\u5cf0\u7ec8\u5b9a\u5f8b\u7684\u9677\u9631\u3002\u6bcf\u5f53\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6d6e\u76c8\u4ece peak \u65f6\u523b\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5cf0\u7ec8\u6548\u5e94\u504f\u5dee\u5c31\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4ed6\u9020\u6210\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u75db\u82e6\u4f1a\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4ed6\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u5bfb\u6c42\u7ee7\u7eed\u6539\u8fdb\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9501\u5b9a peak \u65f6\u523b\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6d6e\u76c8\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u800c\u5bf9\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u6539\u52a8\u90fd\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u8fd9\u65e0\u5f02\u4e8e\u81ea\u6398\u575f\u5893\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        12 Selective Perception<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
        \n

        Selective perception is the tendency not to notice and more quickly forget stimuli that cause emotional discomfort and contradict our prior beliefs.<\/em>
        \u8bd1\uff1a\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5ffd\u7565\u6216\u5feb\u901f\u9057\u5fd8\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5feb\u6216\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\u76f8\u5de6\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

        \u76f4\u767d\u7684\u8bf4\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u5e73\u65f6\u5e38\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u6234\u7740\u6709\u8272\u773c\u955c\u201d\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u770b\u4e00\u526f\u753b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5fc3\u7406\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8fd9\u5e45\u753b\u5ba2\u89c2\u4f20\u8fbe\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u753b\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        \u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e16\u754c\u676f\u51b3\u8d5b\u5728\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u7684\u7403\u8ff7\u5c3d\u7ba1\u627f\u8ba4\u5b83\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u961f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u5e0c\u671b\u81ea\u5df1\u652f\u6301\u7684\u7403\u961f\u593a\u51a0\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u961f\u6280\u9ad8\u4e00\u7b79\uff0c\u6367\u5f97\u5927\u529b\u795e\u676f\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u72c2\u70ed\u7684\u7403\u8ff7\u628a\u539f\u56e0\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u66fc\u6731\u57fa\u5947\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u4e4c\u9f99\u548c\u4f69\u91cc\u897f\u5947\u5012\u9709\u7684\u624b\u7403\u9001\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u683c\u5217\u5179\u66fc\u9887\u6709\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u6454\u5012\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u961f\u9886\u5148\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u9632\u5b88\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6b63\u89c6\u4e24\u961f\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b9e\u529b\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d5b\u524d\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u53cd\u5dee\uff08\u514b\u7f57\u5730\u4e9a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6dd8\u6c70\u8d5b\u5168\u90e8\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u52a0\u65f6\u8d5b\uff0c\u4f53\u529b\u906d\u5230\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u6d88\u8017\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5bf9\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u3002Hastorf and Cantril (1954) \u5206\u6790\u4e86\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u548c\u8fbe\u7279\u8305\u65af\u6a44\u6984\u7403\u6bd4\u8d5b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e3b\u573a\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u7403\u8ff7\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u504f\u5dee\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u5341\u5206\u5371\u9669\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u90fd\u60e7\u6015\u4e8f\u635f\u9020\u6210\u7684\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u800c\u9762\u5bf9\u4e8f\u635f\u65f6\u7ecf\u5e38\u81ea\u6211\u8fa9\u89e3\u3002\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u77e5\u89c9\u8ba9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5ffd\u7565\u6389\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u6240\u72af\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u800c\u5bfb\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u597d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u9519\u628a\u5e02\u573a\u7684 \u03b2 \u5f53\u4f5c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684 \u03b1\uff1b\u800c\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u5dee\u3001\u03b2 \u6d88\u5931\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u5374\u56de\u907f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/strong>\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u8d23\u5907\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u62b1\u6028\u73af\u5883\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u679c\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        13 \u7ed3\u8bed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        \u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u603b\u6709\u804a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u672c\u6587\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86 12 \u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u503c\u5f97\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u6452\u5f03\u6216\u8005\u51cf\u5c11\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u592a\u8fc7\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u5c31\u8fde\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u4e5f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4e2d\u62db\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 overconfidence\u3001peak-end rule\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca insensitivity to sample size\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u7b56\u7565\u51fa\u73b0\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6216\u8005\u4e8f\u635f\u3001\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u5c31\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4ea7\u751f\u5e72\u9884\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u51b2\u52a8\u3002\u5f52\u6839\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u6295\u8d44\u8fd8\u662f\u91cf\u5316\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u8981\u72af\u9519\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u5982\u4f55\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u5462\uff1f\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u5b9e\u76d8\u79ef\u7d2f\u6765\u5386\u7ec3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5fc3\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u5c06\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u6d41\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u3001\u9694\u79bb\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7b56\u7565\u7814\u53d1\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u6267\u884c\u3001\u590d\u76d8\u56de\u987e\u7531\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u72ec\u7acb\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9632\u6b62\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u6d41\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6269\u6563\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e25\u683c\u6267\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u514b\u670d\u3001\u89c4\u907f\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u65ad\u6c42\u7d22\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u957f\u7684\u8def\u8981\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        \u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n