{"id":11937,"date":"2026-04-07T14:11:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11937"},"modified":"2026-04-07T14:11:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:11:57","slug":"%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e4%b9%8b%e6%9c%ac%e8%b4%a8-%e4%bb%8e%e4%b8%bb%e8%a7%82%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87%e5%88%b0%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e8%b4%9d%e5%8f%b6%e6%96%af-%e5%bc%a0%e5%a4%a9%e8%93%89%e4%b8%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11937","title":{"rendered":"\u6982\u7387\u4e4b\u672c\u8d28\u2014\u4ece\u4e3b\u89c2\u6982\u7387\u5230\u91cf\u5b50\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af | \u5f20\u5929\u84c9\u4e13\u680f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><div class='fancybox-wrapper lazyload-container-unload' data-fancybox='post-images' href='http:\/\/pic.zhishifenzi.com\/7\/vn\/zsfz1534154528.9835235.jpg'><img class=\"lazyload lazyload-style-1\" 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href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655415734&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=3c455c263b593a18d5755a081cd702e8&amp;chksm=f3a66fdbc4d1e6cdafd127c6265760db662de34a620085f59fbed5d635d462bd7469e3c30d5c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u591a\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6982\u7387\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u6d3e\u522b\u2014\u2014\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u3002\u4e24\u6d3e\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u7126\u70b9\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u201c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6982\u7387\uff1f\u6982\u7387\u4ece\u4f55\u800c\u6765\uff1f\u201d\u7b49\u672c\u8d28\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u64b0\u6587 | \u5f20\u5929\u84c9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8d23\u7f16 | \u5415\u6d69\u7136<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e13\u680f<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>2017-03-16&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655413624&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0c6643bec24f2f6131b7eac7d0420670&amp;chksm=f3a66715c4d1ee03b55a4a03c89558d8e99f46df452fcf1bce273aa9e3b3989bda27a932acc3&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e0a\u5e1d\u6559\u4eba\u63b7\u9ab0\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u201c\u795e\u7ae5\u201d\u5e15\u65af\u5361\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u8bba<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2017-03-31 &nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655413915&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=1772b467cab4a886ce3f13969650ab41&amp;chksm=f3a664f6c4d1ede0261c20b6d9745deb6e2162d72fb42c9dcb4e8f9178a26c809cd4edd8b520&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u6096\u8bba<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2017-04-18 &nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655414229&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=7d6b702363a67f5b29bba7f99cae403c&amp;chksm=f3a665b8c4d1ecae1a1cb384c4eb5f5e4dd3dd83dd3ff809e84b6b90530a483ef4417848429e&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u522b\u76f8\u4fe1\u76f4\u89c9\uff1a\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u5e2e\u52a9\u4fa6\u7834\u201c\u8d22\u52a1\u9020\u5047\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2017-05-15 &nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655414880&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=ed580b38f96a93a4cbe258b75512350c&amp;chksm=f3a6680dc4d1e11b053ea3d15dae984daa795ab7671ca814049babfc0cb903bac6e02d8627d4&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\uff1a\u8d4c\u535a\u4e0e\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2017-06-24 &nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655415734&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=3c455c263b593a18d5755a081cd702e8&amp;chksm=f3a66fdbc4d1e6cdafd127c6265760db662de34a620085f59fbed5d635d462bd7469e3c30d5c&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u65e0\u6240\u4e0d\u5728\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u949f\u578b\u66f2\u7ebf<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u25cf\u3000\u25cf\u3000\u25cf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5386\u53f2\u56de\u987e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\uff08Thomas Bayes\uff0c 1702\uff0d1761\uff09\u867d\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u53e4\u4eba\uff0c\u5374\u5728\u5f53\u4ee3\u79d1\u6280\u754c\u201c\u7ea2\u201d\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s?__biz=MzIyNDA2NTI4Mg==&amp;mid=2655413915&amp;idx=2&amp;sn=1772b467cab4a886ce3f13969650ab41&amp;chksm=f3a664f6c4d1ede0261c20b6d9745deb6e2162d72fb42c9dcb4e8f9178a26c809cd4edd8b520&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7bc7\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7ecd\u8fc7\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u7406\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u5e74\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u201c\u767d\u7403\u9ed1\u7403\u201d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b63\u5411\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u53cd\u63a8\u56de\u53bb\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u4e3e\u6b63\u5411\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u6697\u76d2\u91cc\u670910\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u9ed1\u767d\u4e24\u79cd\u989c\u8272\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u905310\u4e2a\u7403\u4e2d5\u767d5\u9ed1\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u95ee\u4f60\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u968f\u673a\u53d6\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7403\u662f\u9ed1\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5927\uff1f\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u96be\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u662f50%\uff01\u5982\u679c10\u4e2a\u7403\u662f6\u767d4\u9ed1\u5462\uff1f\u53d6\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u7403\u4e3a\u9ed1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5e94\u8be5\u662f40%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u518d\u8003\u8651\u590d\u6742\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff1a\u5982\u679c10\u4e2a\u7403\u4e2d2\u767d8\u9ed1\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u968f\u673a\u53d62\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u5f97\u52301\u9ed11\u767d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462\uff1f10\u4e2a\u7403\u53d6\u51fa2\u4e2a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u603b\u6570\u4e3a10*9=90\u79cd\uff0c1\u9ed11\u767d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u670916\u79cd\uff0c\u6240\u6c42\u6982\u7387\u4e3a16\/90\uff0c\u7ea6\u7b49\u4e8e17.5%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6392\u5217\u7ec4\u5408\u8fd0\u7b97\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u572810\u4e2a\u7403\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u5f62\u4e0b\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u53d6\u51fan\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u5176\u4e2dm\u4e2a\u662f\u9ed1\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u6b63\u5411\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5f53\u65f6\u66f4\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u53ef\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\uff09\uff1a\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u5148\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u76d2\u5b50\u91cc\u9ed1\u7403\u767d\u7403\u6570\u76ee\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u53ea\u77e5\u9053\u603b\u5171\u662f10\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u968f\u673a\u5730\u62ff\u51fa3\u4e2a\u7403\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u662f2\u9ed11\u767d\u3002\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6837\u672c\uff082\u9ed11\u767d\uff09\uff0c\u731c\u6d4b\u76d2\u5b50\u91cc\u767d\u7403\u9ed1\u7403\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u629b\u786c\u5e01\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u201c\u9006\u6982\u7387\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u786c\u5e01\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e24\u9762\u201c\u516c\u5e73\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u679a\u786c\u5e01\u7684\u7269\u7406\u504f\u5411\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u6982\u7387p\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u7b49\u4e8e50%\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u4fbf\u662f\u4f01\u56fe\u4ece\u67d0\u4e2a\uff08\u6216\u6570\u4e2a\uff09\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6837\u672c\u6765\u731c\u6d4bp\u7684\u6570\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u540e\u9a8c\u6982\u7387 = 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Laplace,1749-1827\uff09\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u4e4b\u7528\u4e8e\u5929\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u548c\u533b\u5b66\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u548c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\uff1a\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e3b\u89c2\u4e4b\u4e89<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5f53\u521d\u5bf9\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u8ba4\u8bc6\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u6599\u5230\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u542f\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u6982\u7387\u548c\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u800c\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\u30101\uff0c2\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b66\u6d3e\uff0c\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u201c\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u201d\u800c\u8a00\u7684\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u54f2\u5b66\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u9891\u7387\u5b66\u6d3e\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u591a\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e4b\u6781\u9650\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u6982\u7387\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u8bcd\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u6b21\u8bd5\u9a8c\u6765\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u5317\u4eac\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u67d0\u5e74\u67d0\u6708\u67d0\u65e5\u5730\u9707\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u7528\u591a\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u6765\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u3002\u518d\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u67d0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7814\u5236\u7684\u5bfc\u5f39\uff0c\u547d\u4e2d1000\u516c\u91cc\u5916\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7528\u591a\u6b21\u91cd\u590d\u6765\u5f97\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u82b1\u8d39\u592a\u6602\u8d35\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u4e0a\u9762\u6240\u4e3e\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u5b9e\u4f8b\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u4e00\u8bcd\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d 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src=\"data:image\/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAYAAAAfFcSJAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAARnQU1BAACxjwv8YQUAAAAJcEhZcwAADsQAAA7EAZUrDhsAAAANSURBVBhXYzh8+PB\/AAffA0nNPuCLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u25ba\u56fe1\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u548c\u62c9\u59c6\u9f50&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6982\u7387\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u7684\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4ee5\u8d5b\u9a6c\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u89c2\u4f17\u5e76\u4e0d\u5177\u5907\u5bf9\u9a6c\u5339\u548c\u9a91\u5e08\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5168\u9762\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u51ed\u4e3b\u89c2\u56e0\u7d20\u5bf9\u8d5b\u9a6c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0b\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u9a6c\u5339\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u6982\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u662f\u4e3b\u89c2\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u79d1\u5b66\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u54f2\u5b66\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7269\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u5374\u603b\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u7684\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u63ba\u8fdb\u4e3b\u89c2\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u81ea\u89c9\u6216\u4e0d\u81ea\u89c9\u5730\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u7684\u6216\u9690\u542b\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u54ea\u4e2a\u6d3e\u522b\uff0c\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u90fd\u5728\u6240\u96be\u514d\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6570\u5b66\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5177\u4f53\u95ee\u9898\u5177\u4f53\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u54ea\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u4fbf\u4f7f\u7528\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u4e3b\u89c2\u8fd8\u662f\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e4b\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u51cc\u9a7e\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u54f2\u4eba\u201d\u4eec\u5bf9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u8be0\u91ca\uff0c\u5bf9\u89e3\u51b3\u5177\u4f53\u95ee\u9898\u65e0\u6d4e\u4e8e\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9891\u7387\u6d3e\u5f3a\u8c03\u6982\u7387\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u6027\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u968f\u673a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u9891\u7387\u6781\u9650\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u6982\u7387\uff1b\u800c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6d3e\u5219\u5c06\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u5bfc\u51fa\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u65b0\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u957f\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u6392\u65a5\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u5f53\u65f6\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u7684\u62d2\u7edd\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u529f\u6162\u6162\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u6162\u6162\u5730\u53d7\u5230\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u601d\u8def\u66f4\u4e3a\u7b26\u5408\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u8111\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u70ed\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u8bfe\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u5927\u5c55\u5b8f\u56fe\uff0c\u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u5355\u4ecb\u7ecd\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u8be0\u91ca\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u91cf\u8d1d\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4f55\u542f\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u4ece\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u91cf\u5b50\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u5728\u5e94\u7528\u65b9\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u79cd\u79cd\u8be1\u5f02\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u73b0\u8c61\u6240\u56f0\u6270\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u9876\u5c16\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e5f\u96be\u4ee5\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u53ef\u8c13\u4f17\u8bf4\u7eb7\u7ead\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e3b\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e0a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u8be0\u91ca\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91cf\u5b50\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5178\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u4ee5\u53ca\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u8be0\u91ca\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u52a9\u201c\u859b\u5b9a\u8c14\u7684\u732b\u201d\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u4e00\u53ea\u732b\u8981\u4e48\u6b7b\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u6d3b\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u65e2\u6b7b\u53c8\u6d3b\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5fae\u89c2\u7c92\u5b50\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u201c\u6b7b\u6d3b\u201d\u5e76\u5b58\u7684\uff08\u5373\u6ce2\u7c92\u4e8c\u8c61\u6027\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u8be6\u60c5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/pic.zhishifenzi.com\/w\/7i\/zsfz1534154529.3043255.png\" class=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30101\u3011\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\uff1a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u6982\u7387<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/zh.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%E8%B4%9D%E5%8F%B6%E6%96%AF%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30102\u3011Edwin Thompson Jaynes.&nbsp;<em>Probability Theory: The Logic of Science<\/em>. Cambridge University Press, (2003).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30103\u3011\u5f20\u5929\u84c9. \u8d70\u8fd1\u91cf\u5b50\u7ea0\u7f20\u7cfb\u5217\u4e4b\u4e09\uff1a\u91cf\u5b50\u7ea0\u7f20\u6001[J].&nbsp;<em>\u7269\u7406<\/em>, 2014, 43(09): 627-630.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>http:\/\/www.wuli.ac.cn\/CN\/abstract\/abstract61515.shtml<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30104\u3011C. M. Caves, C. A. Fuchs and R. Schack, \u201cQuantum Probabilities as Bayesian Probabilities,\u201d&nbsp;<em>Phys. Rev.&nbsp;<\/em>A65, 022305 (2002).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30105\u3011Hans Christian Von Baeyer\uff0c<em>QBism: The Future of Quantum Physics<\/em>\uff0cHarvard University Press\uff0c10\/3\/2016\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>2017\/07\/26<\/em><br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhishifenzi.com\/depth\/column\/1177.html\">https:\/\/zhishifenzi.com\/depth\/column\/1177.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u25ba\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1apixabay&nbsp; \u524d\u9762\u4e24\u7bc7\u4e2d\u6240\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u5927\u6570\u5b9a\u5f8b\u548c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u591a\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6982 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11937\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}