{"id":11860,"date":"2026-04-03T23:17:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T15:17:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11860"},"modified":"2026-04-03T23:17:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T15:17:11","slug":"%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%a6%82%e6%bd%ae%ef%bc%9a%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e4%ba%ba%e6%80%a7%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11860","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u5e02\u5982\u6f6e\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u4eba\u6027\u535a\u5f08"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u51dd\u89c6 K \u7ebf\u56fe\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u8df3\u52a8\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u96c6\u4f53\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u955c\u50cf\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\u2014\u2014\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u4f53\u60c5\u7eea\u3001\u504f\u89c1\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4e92\u52a8\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5177\u6709\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u6298\u5c04\u4e86\u5927\u4f17\u5fc3\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u8f68\u8ff9<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u672c\u8d28<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

1.1 \u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u662f”\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u6027”\u7684\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u6982\u7387\u8ba1\u7b97\u505a\u51fa\u6700\u4f18\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\uff08Daniel Kahneman\uff09\u548c\u963f\u83ab\u65af\u00b7\u7279\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\uff08Amos Tversky\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f7b\u5e95\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ff7\u601d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728 1979 \u5e74\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u9884\u671f\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e2d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u51b3\u7b56\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee[1]\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u5f85\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u8fdc\u6bd4\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u66f4\u654f\u611f\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u76f8\u540c\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u6536\u76ca\u5e26\u6765\u5feb\u4e50\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002” [2]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd**\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\uff08Loss Aversion\uff09**\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u5c24\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u5f53\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\u4f1a\u6210\u500d\u653e\u5927\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\uff1b\u800c\u5f53\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6\uff0c\u83b7\u5229\u76d8\u5f80\u5f80\u60dc\u552e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.2 \u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6548\u5e94<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\uff08Confirmation Bias\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u89c6\u53cd\u9762\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u4ef7\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u51fa\u73b0\u6ede\u540e\u6216\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff08Anchoring Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u9996\u6b21\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u51b3\u7b56\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u540e\u7eed\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u951a\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u542f\u53d1\uff08Representativeness Heuristic\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6839\u636e\u8fd1\u671f\u6a21\u5f0f\u63a8\u65ad\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a”\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u6da8\u52bf\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed”\u3002\u8fd9\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u5236\u9020\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\u548c\u5d29\u76d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94\uff08Herd Behavior\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7ecf\u5178\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u6a21\u4eff\u4ed6\u4eba\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\u7684\u8ffd\u6da8\u6740\u8dcc\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u673a\u5236\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u4ef7\u683c\u5f62\u6210\u4e2d\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

2.1 \u51ef\u6069\u65af\u7684”\u9009\u7f8e\u7406\u8bba”<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6885\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5728 1936 \u5e74\u300a\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001\u5229\u606f\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u901a\u8bba\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u5c31\u50cf\u62a5\u7eb8\u4e0a\u7684\u9009\u7f8e\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u53c2\u8d5b\u8005\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u4e00\u767e\u5f20\u7167\u7247\u4e2d\u9009\u51fa\u516d\u5f20\u6700\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u8138\u3002\u83b7\u80dc\u8005\u5e76\u975e\u9009\u62e9\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u7f8e\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9009\u62e9\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7f8e\u7684\u4eba\u2026\u2026\u6709\u65f6\u751a\u81f3\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7f8e\u7684\u3002” [3]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u591a\u5c42\u7ea7\u9884\u671f\u6a21\u578b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5bf9’\u4ed6\u4eba\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u5b9a\u4ef7’\u7684\u9884\u671f<\/strong>\u3002\u5f53\u4ee3\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u6cf0\u52d2\uff08Richard Thaler\uff09\u5c06\u5176\u79f0\u4e3a”\u7b2c\u4e09\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4”\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.2 \u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u7406\u8bba<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u7684**\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\uff08Reflexivity\uff09**\u7406\u8bba\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u5e02\u573a\u5fc3\u7406\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u52a8\u6001\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u65e2\u662f\u88ab\u52a8\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u63a5\u6536\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3b\u52a8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5851\u9020\u8005\u3002” [4]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u666e\u904d\u770b\u597d\u67d0\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u2192\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u4e70\u76d8\u2192\u516c\u53f8\u878d\u8d44\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u2192\u7ecf\u8425\u72b6\u51b5\u6539\u5584\u2192\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u9ad8\u80a1\u4ef7\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u5411\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u80fd\u591f\u63a8\u52a8\u4ef7\u683c\u8131\u79bb\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6570\u500d\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5fc3\u7406\u80fd\u91cf\u8017\u5c3d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.3 \u566a\u97f3\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u98ce\u9669<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1990 \u5e74\uff0c\u5b66\u8005 De Long, Shleifer, Summers \u548c Waldmann \u5728\u5176\u7ecf\u5178\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u566a\u97f3\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u98ce\u9669\u300b\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5957\u5229\u5e94\u8be5\u6d88\u9664\u9519\u8bef\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u907f\u514d\u4e0e\u566a\u97f3\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5bf9\u6297\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u566a\u97f3\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u4ef7\u683c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5957\u5229\u5931\u8d25\u3002” [5]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u7814\u7a76\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u957f\u671f\u504f\u79bb\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u2014\u2014\u7406\u6027\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u907f\u9669\u672c\u80fd\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u766b\u72c2<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

3.1 \u8377\u5170\u90c1\u91d1\u9999\u6ce1\u6cab\uff081637 \u5e74\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6ce1\u6cab\u2014\u2014\u90c1\u91d1\u9999\u72c2\u70ed\uff0c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8be0\u91ca\u4e86\u4ece\u4f17\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u7834\u574f\u529b\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u682a\u7a00\u6709\u90c1\u91d1\u9999\u7403\u830e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e\u4e00\u680b\u963f\u59c6\u65af\u7279\u4e39\u8c6a\u5b85\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5f53\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6839\u63a5\u529b\u7684\u72c2\u70ed\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u51e0\u5929\u5185\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 90% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u8457\u540d\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u67e5\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u9ea6\u57fa\uff08Charles Mackay\uff09\u5728 1841 \u5e74\u7684\u300a\u975e\u540c\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u5927\u4f17\u5e7b\u60f3\u4e0e\u7fa4\u4f17\u611a\u6627\u300b\u4e2d\u603b\u7ed3\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u75af\u4eba\u9662\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u6e05\u9192\u7684\u4eba\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002” [6]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

3.2 1929 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u8427\u6761<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u7c73\u5c14\u987f\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u53f2\u300b\u4e2d\u5bf9 1929 \u5e74\u80a1\u707e\u7684\u5206\u6790\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“1928 \u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u6307\u6570\u4ecd\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u524d\u671f\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u673a\u72c2\u6f6e\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u666e\u901a\u5de5\u85aa\u9636\u5c42\u3002\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u4eec\u79c1\u4e0b\u8b66\u544a\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u516c\u5f00\u573a\u5408\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u65e0\u4eba\u6562\u6253\u7834\u3002” [7]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u840c\u82bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.3 2000 \u5e74\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2000 \u5e74\u7684dot-com\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5e26\u6709”.com”\u540e\u7f00\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u6570\u6708\u5185\u7ffb\u6570\u500d\u3002\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u6770\u00b7\u9a6c\u4e01\uff08Roger Martin\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u4f30\u503c\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u518d\u9002\u7528\u3002\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 100 \u500d\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a’\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837’\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u6240\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u53f0\u8bcd\u3002” [8]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

2008 \u5e74\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5371\u673a\u5219\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u673a\u5236\uff1a\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\uff08Moral Hazard\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u3001\u8d37\u6b3e\u673a\u6784\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u6269\u5f20\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u7f16\u7ec7\u4e86\u4e00\u5f20\u7531\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5e9e\u5927\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u7f51\u7edc\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u66b4\u9732\u65e0\u9057\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u91cf\u5316\u89c6\u89d2\uff1a\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

4.1 VIX \u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684 VIX \u6307\u6570\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a”\u6050\u60e7\u6307\u6570”\uff0c\u5176\u6784\u9020\u57fa\u4e8e\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0cVIX \u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u62a5\u5448\u663e\u8457\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff08r = -0.65\uff09\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u4f4d\u540e\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u8fbe\u5230 15-20%\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u91cf\u5316\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u4fe1\u53f7<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.2 \u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u8c03\u67e5\u6570\u636e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

AAII\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u534f\u4f1a\uff09\u6bcf\u5468\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6563\u6237\u60c5\u7eea\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u770b\u6da8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d85\u8fc7 45% \u65f6\uff0c\u672a\u6765 6 \u4e2a\u6708\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a -2.3%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u770b\u8dcc\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d85\u8fc7 35% \u65f6\uff0c\u672a\u6765 6 \u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a +8.7%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5173\u7cfb\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4e86\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u57fa\u7840<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4.3 \u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u60c5\u7eea\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6587\u672c\u6316\u6398\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0cReddit \u8bba\u575b r\/wallstreetbets\u3001Twitter\u3001StockTwits \u7b49\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u70ed\u5ea6\u4e0e\u77ed\u671f\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u5f53\u67d0\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u63d0\u53ca\u91cf\u6fc0\u589e 50% \u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u672a\u6765 3 \u5929\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u65b9\u5dee\u589e\u52a0 23%\uff0c\u4e14\u5448\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u7684\u52a8\u91cf\u6548\u5e94\u3002” [9]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4fe1\u606f\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u8d8a\u5feb\uff0c\u60c5\u7eea\u4f20\u5bfc\u8d8a\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u53d1\u73b0\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5e72\u6270<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e94\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u542f\u793a\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u7528\u5927\u4f17\u5fc3\u7406\u6d1e\u5bdf<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

5.1 \u8bc6\u522b\u5e02\u573a\u6781\u7aef\u5fc3\u6001<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\u5728\u300a\u806a\u660e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u300b\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u725b\u5e02\u5728\u60b2\u89c2\u4e2d\u8bde\u751f\uff0c\u5728\u6000\u7591\u4e2d\u6210\u957f\uff0c\u5728\u4e50\u89c2\u4e2d\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u5728\u72c2\u6b22\u4e2d\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002” [10]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8981\u5224\u65ad\u5f53\u524d\u5904\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5173\u6ce8\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9636\u6bb5<\/th>\u516c\u4f17\u60c5\u7eea\u7279\u5f81<\/th>\u5178\u578b\u8a00\u8bba<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
\u60b2\u89c2\u671f<\/td>\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u7edd\u671b<\/td>“\u518d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6562\u78b0\u80a1\u7968\u4e86””\u628a\u94b1\u5b58\u94f6\u884c\u6700\u5b89\u5168”<\/td><\/tr>
\u6000\u7591\u671f<\/td>\u8c28\u614e\u89c2\u671b<\/td>“\u7b49\u8fd9\u6ce2\u56de\u8c03\u518d\u8bf4””\u5148\u770b\u770b\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5982\u4f55”<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e50\u89c2\u671f<\/td>\u79ef\u6781\u8bd5\u63a2<\/td>“\u8fd9\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u8fd8\u80fd\u6da8””\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u65f6\u4ee3\u6765\u4e86”<\/td><\/tr>
\u72c2\u70ed\u671f<\/td>\u8d2a\u5a6a\u3001\u5426\u8ba4<\/td>“\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837””\u9519\u8fc7\u5c31\u662f\u4e8f\u94b1”<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5.2 \u6784\u5efa\u9006\u5411\u7b56\u7565\u6846\u67b6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5de6\u4fa7\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u65f6\u673a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uff1a\u5f53\u4f30\u503c\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff08PE<10x\uff09\u3001\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u840e\u7f29\u81f3\u5747\u503c\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\u8d1f\u9762\u65b0\u95fb\u94fa\u5929\u76d6\u5730\u4f46\u4ecd\u4e0d\u521b\u65b0\u4f4e\u65f6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53f3\u4fa7\u79bb\u573a\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uff1a\u5f53\u5a92\u4f53\u5f00\u59cb\u5bc6\u96c6\u62a5\u9053”\u67d0\u67d0\u4eba\u9760\u7092\u80a1\u66b4\u5bcc”\u3001\u65b0\u80a1\u53d1\u884c\u5c61\u7834\u7eaa\u5f55\u3001\u6563\u6237\u5f00\u6237\u6570\u6fc0\u589e\u65f6<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5.3 \u5efa\u7acb\u60c5\u7eea\u76d1\u63a7\u6e05\u5355<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5efa\u8bae\u65e5\u5e38\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5e02\u573a\u5bbd\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u5bb6\u6570\/\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5bb6\u6570\u6bd4\u7387<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7a7a\u4ed3\u7387\uff1a\u80a1\u7968\u578b\u57fa\u91d1\u73b0\u91d1\u5360\u6bd4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6760\u6746\u8d44\u91d1\uff1a\u878d\u8d44\u878d\u5238\u4f59\u989d\u53d8\u5316<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9009\u9879\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u91cf\uff1aPut\/Call Ratio\uff08\u770b\u8dcc\/\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u6bd4\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u8206\u60c5\uff1a\u8d22\u7ecf\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6570<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u516d\u3001\u6279\u5224\u6027\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u5fc3\u7406\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7406\u8bba\u6781\u5177\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u9700\u4fdd\u6301\u5ba1\u614e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6.1 \u5fc3\u7406\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u975e\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u56fa\u7136\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u96be\u4ee5\u7cbe\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5df4\u9c81\u514b\u00b7\u4f2f\u4f26\u68ee\uff08Baruch Barunson\uff09\u6240\u8a00\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u8bf4\u670d\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u3002” \u2014\u2014\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6700\u5927\u7684\u654c\u4eba\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u81ea\u8eab\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

6.2 \u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6311\u6218<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\uff08EMH\uff09\u5b66\u6d3e\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\u8d28\u7591\u9700\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u770b\u5f85\u2014\u2014\u867d\u7136\u5b8c\u5168\u7684\u65e0\u6548\u5b9a\u4ef7\u96be\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\uff0c\u4f46\u8fb9\u9645\u4e0a\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u5b9a\u4ef7\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6.3 \u4fe1\u606f\u8fc7\u8f7d\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u566a\u97f3\u653e\u5927<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u7b97\u6cd5\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u52a0\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0”\u566a\u97f3\u653e\u5927\u5668\u6548\u5e94”\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u903b\u8f91\u4f9d\u7136\u56de\u5f52\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u5408\u9002\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u5206\u914d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ed3\u8bed\uff1a\u505a\u51b7\u9759\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u8005<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4e00\u9762\u955c\u5b50\uff0c\u6620\u7167\u51fa\u4eba\u6027\u4e2d\u6700\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5149\u8c31\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u89e3\u8bfb K \u7ebf\u56fe\u65f6\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u89e3\u8bfb\u5343\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u96c6\u4f53\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u5916\u663e\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u662f\u5426”\u6b63\u786e”\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u5fe0\u5b9e\u5730\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u5f53\u4e0b\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u91cd\u91cf<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u6210\u719f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0d\u5e94\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8”\u8fd9\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u503c\u591a\u5c11\u94b1”\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u601d\u8003”\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b83\u503c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ef7”\u4ee5\u53ca”\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\u6709\u591a\u7a33\u56fa”\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u4fdd\u6301\u6e05\u9192\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u76f2\u76ee\u8ddf\u98ce\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8f7b\u6613\u5426\u5b9a\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6b63\u5982\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\u5728\u300a\u8bc1\u5238\u5206\u6790\u300b\u5f00\u7bc7\u6240\u8a00\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“\u6295\u8d44\u827a\u672f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u533a\u5206\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u566a\u58f0\u4e0e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3001\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u9677\u9631\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u90fd\u59cb\u4e8e\u4e00\u9897\u51b7\u9759\u7684\u5fc3\u3002” [11]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979).Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992).Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keynes, J.M. (1936).The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Palgrave Macmillan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soros, G. (1987).The Alchemy of Finance. Wiley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De Long, J.B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L.H., & Waldmann, R.J. (1990).Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mackay, C. (1841).Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Ward Lock & Co.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A.J. (1963).A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton University Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Martin, R.G. (2002).The Little Book of Valuation. Wharton School Publishing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tetlock, P.C. (2010).Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market. Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1139-1168.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graham, B. (1973).The Intelligent Investor. Harper & Row.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graham, B., & Dodd, D. (1934).Security Analysis. McGraw-Hill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u8865\u5145\u9605\u8bfb\u63a8\u8350<\/strong>\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300a\u6f2b\u6b65\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u300b\uff08Burton Malkiel\uff09- \u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u601d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300a\u806a\u660e\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u300b\uff08Benjamin Graham\uff09- \u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u57fa\u77f3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u300b\uff08Robert Shiller\uff09- \u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5206\u6790<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\uff08Nassim Taleb\uff09- \u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u300a\u601d\u8003\u5feb\u4e0e\u6162\u300b\uff08Daniel Kahneman\uff09- \u53cc\u7cfb\u7edf\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u901a\u4fd7\u7248<\/p>\n\n\n\n

kk\u00a0\u5b66\u800c\u65f6\u4e60\u4e4b\u5bc6<\/a>2026\u5e743\u670812\u65e5 19:07\u5317\u4eac<\/em>
https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/DH3nfnhCgND-8R4qmP8OWA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u51dd\u89c6 K \u7ebf\u56fe\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u8df3\u52a8\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u96c6\u4f53\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u955c\u50cf\u3002\u73b0\u4ee3\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5728\u4e8e\u2014\u2014\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u4f53\u60c5\u7eea…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11860\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}