{"id":11810,"date":"2026-03-30T12:48:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11810"},"modified":"2026-03-30T12:48:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:48:48","slug":"%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6%e8%a7%a3%e6%9e%84%e3%80%8a2028%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9aai%e5%b0%86%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e7%b2%89%e7%a2%8e%e6%89%93%e5%b7%a5%e4%ba%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11810","title":{"rendered":"\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u6784\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\uff1aAI\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u7c89\u788e\u6253\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u201c\u667a\u529b\u6ea2\u4ef7\u201d\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>\u4e00\u7bc7\u540d\u4e3a\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5708\u6380\u8d77\u8f69\u7136\u5927\u6ce2\uff0c7000\u5b57\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u98a0\u8986\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u5f53\u673a\u5668\u667a\u80fd\u4ee5\u96f6\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u66ff\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u901a\u7f29\u87ba\u65cb\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u6467\u6bc1\u6d88\u8d39\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u6790\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u2018\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u2019\u4e0e\u2018\u5e7d\u7075GDP\u2019\u7b49\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u63ed\u793aAI\u65f6\u4ee3\u4e0b\u5546\u4e1a\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u7684\u5d29\u584c\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/2023\/04\/14\/a084e55c-da8d-11ed-86cf-00163e0b5ff3.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u89c2\u770b\u58f0\u660e\uff1a\u5982\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u63a8\u8350\u89c2\u770bCitrini Research\u673a\u6784\u7684\u539f\u6587\u300aTHE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u98df\u7528\u7f51\u5740\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.citriniresearch.com\/p\/2028gic<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/8GyneAo04lgzhNJ2KNZz.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>2026\u5e742\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u975e\u5178\u578b\u4e14\u6781\u5177\u7834\u574f\u6027\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e09\u5927\u80a1\u6307\u5168\u7ebf\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5355\u65e5\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u632b\u8d85\u8fc71%\uff0c\u800c\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u7684\u6050\u614c\u5219\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u4e0e\u652f\u4ed8\u677f\u5757\u4e2d\u8fc5\u901f\u8513\u5ef6\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u629b\u552e\u6f6e\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5185\u84b8\u53d1\u4e86\u9ad8\u8fbe3000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8001\u724c\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934IBM\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u5355\u65e5\u66b4\u8dcc13%\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b\u8fc7\u53bb25\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5355\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e45\uff1b\u800c\u5305\u62ecDoorDash\u3001Mastercard\uff08\u4e07\u4e8b\u8fbe\u5361\uff09\u3001American Express\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u901a\uff09\u548cUber\u7b49\u5728\u5185\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5e73\u53f0\u5de8\u5934\uff0c\u5176\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e5f\u7eb7\u7eb7\u906d\u90474%\u81f37%\u4e0d\u7b49\u7684\u91cd\u632b\u3002\u8ffd\u8e2aMicrosoft\uff08\u5fae\u8f6f\uff09\u3001Oracle\uff08\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\uff09\u548cPalantir\u7b49\u79d1\u6280\u9f99\u5934\u7684BlackRock\uff08\u8d1d\u83b1\u5fb7\uff09\u65d7\u8230\u79d1\u6280\u57fa\u91d1\u66f4\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u632b3%\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u5e74\u5185\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8dcc\u5e45\u6269\u5927\u81f327%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f15\u53d1\u8fd9\u573a\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u6050\u614c\u6027\u629b\u552e\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u9aa4\u7136\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u975e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d85\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\u6216\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5708\u53caSubstack\u7b49\u81ea\u5a92\u4f53\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u8fc5\u901f\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f0f\u4f20\u64ad\u3001\u7d2f\u8ba1\u83b7\u5f97\u8d852200\u4e07\u6b21\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u63a8\u6f14\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u2014\u2014\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\uff08The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u957f\u8fbe7000\u4f59\u5b57\uff0c\u7531\u72ec\u7acb\u5b8f\u89c2\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784Citrini Research\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4ebaJames Van Geelen\u4e0e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u8fde\u7eed\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u517c\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1Lotus Technology Management\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98Alap Shah\u5171\u540c\u64b0\u5199\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u6587\u732e\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u5177\u8d5b\u535a\u670b\u514b\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u201c\u672a\u6765\u56de\u987e\u201d\uff08Post-mortem\uff09\u53d9\u4e8b\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a\u5199\u4e8e2028\u5e746\u670830\u65e5\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u5f00\u7bc7\u660e\u786e\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u9884\u6d4b\uff08Prediction\uff09\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u201cAI\u672b\u65e5\u8272\u60c5\u201d\uff08AI Doomer Fan-fiction\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u201c\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201d\uff08Thought Exercise\uff09\u548c\u201c\u5de6\u5c3e\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u5883\u5206\u6790\u201d\uff08Left-tail Risk Scenario\uff09\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e\u63a2\u8ba8\uff1a\u5f53\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AGI\uff09\u6216\u9ad8\u5ea6\u81ea\u6cbb\u7684AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\uff08Agentic AI\uff09\u4ee5\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u901f\u5ea6\u8fdb\u5316\uff0c\u4e14\u5176\u66ff\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u7684\u6548\u7387\u8fdc\u8d85\u793e\u4f1a\u9002\u5e94\u4e0e\u518d\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u5236\u7684\u91cd\u6784\u901f\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ca\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u600e\u6837\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u524d\u58f0\u660e\u4e86\u5176\u865a\u6784\u4e0e\u63a8\u6f14\u6027\u8d28\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6240\u5c55\u73b0\u7684\u4e25\u5bc6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u903b\u8f91\u548c\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5bd2\u800c\u6817\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u5bfc\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u7cbe\u51c6\u51fb\u4e2d\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u957f\u8fbe\u4e09\u5e74\u534a\u7684AI\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff08CapEx\uff09\u72c2\u70ed\u540e\u6240\u6df1\u85cf\u7684\u201c\u6050\u9ad8\u201d\u4e0e\u7126\u8651\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u5b8f\u89c2\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u7684\u6781\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u66f4\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u5de8\u5934Citadel Securities\uff08\u57ce\u5821\u8bc1\u5238\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of America\uff09\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u767d\u5bab\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u4e0e\u5b9e\u52a1\u754c\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u53cd\u9a73\u4e0e\u6fc0\u70c8\u8fa9\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/PFXo29GX4WBp4UpGCpZ8.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-1\">\u5b8f\u89c2\u60c5\u5883\u8bbe\u5b9a\uff1a2028\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56fe\u666f\u4e0e\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u5047\u8c61<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u73b0\u4ee3\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u8fd0\u8f6c\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\u59cb\u7ec8\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u52a8\u6447\u7684\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1a\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u80fd\u529b\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u7a00\u7f3a\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u6781\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u7a0e\u6536\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u6d41\u8f6c\u7684\u95ed\u73af\uff0c\u5747\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u548c\u767d\u9886\u7fa4\u4f53\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7fa4\u4f53\u901a\u8fc7\u51fa\u552e\u5176\u667a\u529b\u52b3\u52a8\u4e0e\u4e13\u4e1a\u6280\u80fd\u83b7\u53d6\u85aa\u916c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u8fdb\u884c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u65e5\u5e38\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9e\u73b0\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u590d\u5236\u4e0e\u90e8\u7f72\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6743\u5c06\u88ab\u5f7b\u5e95\u7c89\u788e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5371\u673a\u524d\u591c\uff1a2026\u5e74\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u72c2\u6b22\u4e0e\u5229\u6da6\u5e7b\u89c9<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Citrini Research\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5e76\u672a\u5c06\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4e00\u573a\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u59cb\u4e8e\u4e00\u573a\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u72c2\u6b22\u3002\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u63a8\u6f14\u76842026\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4f01\u4e1a\u5f00\u59cb\u521d\u6b65\u5229\u7528AI\u5de5\u5177\u66ff\u4ee3\u5197\u4f59\u4eba\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u8fce\u6765\u4e86\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u4e00\u5ea6\u903c\u8fd18000\u70b9\u5927\u5173\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\u7a81\u783430000\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9AI\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u62a5\u4ee5\u70ed\u70c8\u53cd\u54cd\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8fc7\u65f6\u201d\uff08Human obsolescence\uff09\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u6f6e\u57282026\u5e74\u521d\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3e\u63aa\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5730\u5151\u73b0\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u964d\u672c\u589e\u6548\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u6025\u5267\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u6570\u636e\u8fde\u7eed\u8d85\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u968f\u4e4b\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u63d0\u9ad8\u5458\u5de5\u798f\u5229\u6216\u6269\u5927\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u62db\u8058\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u88ab\u6e90\u6e90\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u91cd\u65b0\u6295\u5165\u5230AI\u7b97\u529b\u96c6\u7fa4\u4e0e\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u6570\u636e\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u6d3e\u7e41\u8363\u666f\u8c61\u3002\u540d\u4e49\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08Nominal GDP\uff09\u4fdd\u6301\u7740\u4e2d\u9ad8\u4e2a\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7206\u70b8\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea7\u51fa\uff08Real output per hour\uff09\u521b\u4e0b\u81ea1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5386\u53f2\u589e\u901f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5947\u8ff9\u7684\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u77e5\u75b2\u5026\u3001\u65e0\u9700\u7761\u7720\u3001\u4e0d\u8bf7\u75c5\u5047\u4e14\u4e0d\u8981\u6c42\u96c7\u4e3b\u63d0\u4f9b\u6602\u8d35\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u9669\u7684AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u5728\u5168\u5929\u5019\u8fd0\u8f6c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2028\u5e74\u7684\u7ec8\u5c40\uff1a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5d29\u76d8\u7684\u964d\u4e34<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u538b\u69a8\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4efd\u989d\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u6ce8\u5b9a\u65e0\u6cd5\u6301\u4e45\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u63a8\u8fdb\u81f32028\u5e746\u670830\u65e5\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u9762\u76ee\u5168\u975e\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u610f\u5916\u98d9\u5347\u81f310.2%\uff08\u8d85\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u76840.3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u636e\u76f4\u63a5\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6050\u614c\u6027\u629b\u552e\uff0c\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e2026\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u9ad8\u8fbe38%\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u56de\u64a4\uff08\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u63a8\u6f14\u6bb5\u843d\u4e2d\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u751a\u81f3\u8fbe\u523057%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u8870\u9000\u5e76\u975e\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u7531\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5efa\u8bbe\uff08Overbuilding\uff09\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u8d85\u8c03\uff08Inventory Overshoot\uff09\u6216\u592e\u884c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7d27\u7f29\u5f15\u53d1\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u53bb\u5e93\u5b58\u3001\u592e\u884c\u964d\u606f\u91ca\u653e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5b9e\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\uff08Restocking &amp; Recovery\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cCitrini\u6240\u63cf\u7ed8\u7684\u5371\u673a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7531\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7edd\u5bf9\u66ff\u4ee3\u6548\u5e94\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u901a\u7f29\u87ba\u65cb\u201d\u3002\u5f53\u6781\u5ea6\u5145\u88d5\u7684\u673a\u5668\u667a\u80fd\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u652f\u6491\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u6536\u5165\u57fa\u5ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u65e7\u6709\u8303\u5f0f\u4e0a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\u5de5\u5177\u90fd\u5c06\u5ba3\u544a\u5931\u7075\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-2\">\u6838\u5fc3\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u91cd\u6784\u4e00\uff1a\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\uff08The Intelligence Displacement Spiral\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\u80fd\u5728\u4e13\u4e1a\u91d1\u878d\u5708\u5f15\u53d1\u5982\u6b64\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5171\u9e23\u4e0e\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u5176\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u8d21\u732e\u5728\u4e8e\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u201d\uff08The Intelligence Displacement Spiral\uff09\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u81ea\u7136\u963b\u5c3c\u5668\uff08No natural brake\uff09\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e3a\u4f55\u7531AI\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u6765\u8f7b\u6613\u5316\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/4rvw7qYFfrPsPIdYp1D3.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u87ba\u65cb\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u8def\u5f84\u72b9\u5982\u4e00\u53f0\u51b7\u9177\u65e0\u60c5\u7684\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u9010\u6b65\u7ede\u6740\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6d3b\u529b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u80fd\u529b\u8dc3\u5347\u4e0e\u521d\u6b65\u66ff\u4ee3\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u5927\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLM\uff09\u548c\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u6280\u672f\u7684\u9636\u8dc3\u5f0f\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ef4\u6301\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u8425\u6240\u9700\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u4eba\u529b\u8d44\u672c\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u51fa\u4e8e\u6269\u5927\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7684\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u767d\u9886\u9636\u5c42\uff08\u5982\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u987e\u95ee\u3001\u4e2d\u5c42\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u5458\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u88c1\u5458\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6d88\u8d39\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d7\u635f\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5931\u53bb\u9ad8\u85aa\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u9762\u4e34\u7ec8\u8eab\u6536\u5165\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u53d7\u635f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u5411\u4e0b\u517c\u5bb9\u5bfb\u627e\u4f4e\u85aa\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u88ab\u8feb\u524a\u51cf\u53ef\u9009\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u5ef6\u7f13\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u5e76\u4e25\u683c\u63a7\u5236\u65e5\u5e38\u5f00\u652f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f01\u4e1a\u7aef\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53cd\u566c\u4e0e\u5229\u6da6\u627f\u538b\uff1a\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u4ee5\u603b\u4f53\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u4f20\u5bfc\u81f3\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u3002\u4f01\u4e1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5185\u90e8\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea7\u54c1\u5374\u5356\u4e0d\u51fa\u53bb\u4e86\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f\u9aa4\u964d\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u4e25\u91cd\u627f\u538b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u81f4\u547d\u7684OpEx\u66ff\u4ee3\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u9762\u5bf9\u5229\u6da6\u6536\u7f29\u7684\u751f\u6b7b\u5b58\u4ea1\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7406\u6027\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u662f\u91cd\u65b0\u96c7\u4f63\u5458\u5de5\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u9700\u6c42\uff08\u5355\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u5b8f\u89c2\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u88ab\u8feb\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u524a\u51cf\u6210\u672c\uff08OpEx\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u524a\u51cf\u6210\u672c\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u6709\u6548\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u52a0\u5927\u5bf9AI\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u529b\u5ea6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u87ba\u65cb\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u52a0\u901f\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u8425\u6536\u7f29\u51cf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u88ab\u8feb\u7ef4\u6301\u751a\u81f3\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9AI\u7684\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u6b8b\u5b58\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd8\u5ba2\u89c2\u4e0a\u4e3aAI\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5145\u6c9b\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u548c\u6570\u636e\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86AI\u6280\u672f\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u8fdb\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u66f4\u731b\u70c8\u7684\u88c1\u5458\u6f6e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6d1e\u5bdf\u5728\u4e8e\u533a\u5206\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff08CapEx\uff09\u4e0e\u8fd0\u8425\u652f\u51fa\uff08OpEx\uff09\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u5382\u6216\u6269\u5f20\u4ea7\u80fd\uff08CapEx\uff09\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f9b\u8fc7\u4e8e\u6c42\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u505c\u6b62\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u4f1a\u6253\u65ad\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5faa\u73af\uff0c\u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fdb\u5165\u4f11\u517b\u751f\u606f\u7684\u4fee\u590d\u671f\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u201d\u4e2d\uff0cAI\u6295\u8d44\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u8fd0\u8425\u652f\u51fa\uff08OpEx\uff09\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u2014\u2014\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u524a\u51cf\u603b\u4f53\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5374\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9AI\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u975e\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u51cf\u7f13AI\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u50cf\u50ac\u5316\u5242\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ee5\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884cAI\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u8be5\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u5185\u90e8\u81ea\u6211\u7ec8\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u87ba\u65cb\u9762\u524d\u675f\u624b\u65e0\u7b56\u3002\u6b63\u5982Citrini\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u53d1\u751f\u4e8e\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u5371\u673a\u2014\u2014\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u505c\u6ed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GDP\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u5e7d\u7075GDP\u201d\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u75c5\u6001\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u6001\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u4ea7\u51fa\u5728\u8d26\u9762\u4e0a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8eAI\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u5168\u5929\u5019\u65e0\u4f11\u8fd0\u8f6c\u3001\u96f6\u9519\u8bef\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd1\u4e4e\u514d\u8d39\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u4ea7\u51fa\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d26\u9762\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u66b4\u6da8\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea7\u51fa\u7ea2\u5229\u4ec5\u4ec5\u505c\u7559\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b8f\u89c2\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u4ece\u672a\u771f\u6b63\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6bdb\u7ec6\u8840\u7ba1\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u6d41\u901a\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7e41\u8363\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6570\u91cf\u8bba\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff1a$MV = 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class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-4\">\u5fae\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u5927\u5c60\u6740\uff1a\u5546\u4e1a\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u7684\u5168\u9762\u74e6\u89e3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u5b8f\u89c2\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u901a\u7f29\u87ba\u65cb\u548c\u201c\u5e7d\u7075GDP\u201d\u662f\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6c89\u95f7\u80cc\u666f\u97f3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5fae\u89c2\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c42\u9762\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u77ac\u95f4\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u8fd9\u573a\u98ce\u66b4\u6700\u4e3a\u66b4\u70c8\u3001\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u6781\u4e3a\u8be6\u5c3d\u5730\u63a8\u6f14\u4e86AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u6d88\u9664\u5546\u4e1a\u94fe\u6761\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u963b\u529b\u201d\uff08Friction\uff09\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u5dee\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u60ef\u6027\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u6467\u6bc1\u66fe\u7ecf\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e00\u4e16\u7684SaaS\uff08\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5373\u670d\u52a1\uff09\u884c\u4e1a\u3001\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5e73\u53f0\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u652f\u4ed8\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SaaS\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u672b\u65e5\uff08SaaSpocalypse\uff09<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57282020\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u7e41\u8363\u671f\uff0cSaaS\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u89c6\u4e3a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u51ed\u501f\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u8f6c\u6362\u6210\u672c\u3001\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u53ca\u7a33\u5b9a\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u6536\u5165\uff08ARR\uff09\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8bbe\u5b9a\u57282025\u5e74\u672b\u81f32026\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5982Anthropic\u7684Claude Code\u548cOpenAI\u7684Codex\u7b49\u9ad8\u5ea6\u81ea\u6cbb\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u751f\u6210\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u7684\u6210\u719f\u4e0e\u666e\u53ca\uff0cSaaS\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d56\u4ee5\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u571f\u5d29\u74e6\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3AI\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u52a8\u8865\u5168\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u591f\u81ea\u4e3b\u7406\u89e3\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u903b\u8f91\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u67b6\u6784\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e76\u5b8c\u6210\u7aef\u5230\u7aef\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u751a\u81f3\u63d0\u5230\uff0cClaude Code\u80fd\u591f\u8f7b\u6613\u5730\u5c06IBM\u9057\u7559\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u53e4\u8001COBOL\u8bed\u8a00\u7cfb\u7edf\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4IBM\u80a1\u4ef7\u5355\u65e5\u66b4\u8dcc13%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c55\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8def\u5f84\uff0cCitrini\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u4e3a\u903c\u771f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a2026\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u77e5\u540dIT\u670d\u52a1\u7ba1\u7406\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de8\u5934ServiceNow\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u5176\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u8d22\u62a5\u3002\u8d22\u62a5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u65b0\u589e\u5e74\u5ea6\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u503c\uff08Net New ACV\uff09\u7684\u589e\u901f\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u768423%\u9aa4\u964d\u81f314%\uff1b\u516c\u53f8\u540c\u65f6\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u9ad8\u8fbe15%\u7684\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6548\u7387\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728\u76d8\u540e\u66b4\u8dcc18%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u865a\u6784\u4f46\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u63ed\u793a\u4e86SaaS\u884c\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u7ede\u6740\u673a\u5236\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5185\u90e8\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u201c\u5e73\u66ff\u5316\u201d\u4e0e\u8bae\u4ef7\u6743\u4e27\u5931\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684IT\u548c\u91c7\u8d2d\u90e8\u95e8\u5f00\u59cb\u5229\u7528\u5f3a\u5927\u7684AI\u7f16\u7a0b\u52a9\u624b\uff0c\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u51e0\u5468\u751a\u81f3\u51e0\u5929\u5185\uff0c\u4ee5\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u590d\u523b\u51fa\u539f\u672c\u9700\u8981\u8017\u8d39\u5de8\u8d44\u8ba2\u9605\u7684\u4e2d\u7aefSaaS\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u5982Monday.com\u3001Zapier\u3001Asana\u7b49\uff09\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u4f01\u4e1a\u51fa\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u8003\u91cf\u4e0d\u9009\u62e9\u5168\u9762\u81ea\u5efa\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u6781\u5176\u5ec9\u4ef7\u4e14\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u81ea\u5efa\u9009\u9879\u201d\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u4e0eSaaS\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u8fdb\u884c\u5e74\u5ea6\u7eed\u7ea6\u8c08\u5224\u65f6\u6700\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u7b79\u7801\u3002\u91c7\u8d2d\u56e2\u961f\u5f00\u59cb\u7406\u76f4\u6c14\u58ee\u5730\u8981\u6c42\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b30%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5de8\u989d\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u5c06\u91c7\u7528AI\u81ea\u5efa\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7834\u574f\uff08Reflexivity\uff09\uff1aSaaS\u884c\u4e1a\u666e\u904d\u91c7\u7528\u201c\u6309\u5e2d\u4f4d\u8ba2\u9605\u201d\uff08Per-seat licensing\uff09\u7684\u8ba1\u8d39\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u968f\u7740ServiceNow\u7b49\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u300a\u8d22\u5bcc\u300b500\u5f3a\u5ba2\u6237\u81ea\u8eab\u4e5f\u901a\u8fc7\u90e8\u7f72AI\u6765\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u88c1\u51cf\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u767d\u9886\u5458\u5de5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u81ea\u7136\u4e0d\u518d\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u88ab\u88c1\u51cf\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u652f\u4ed8\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5e2d\u4f4d\u8d39\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5ba2\u6237\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u7269\u7406\u7f29\u6c34\u76f4\u63a5\u4fb5\u8680\u4e86SaaS\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u7684\u8ba1\u8d39\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u8425\u6536\u7684\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u574d\u584c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\uff1a\u5916\u5356\u3001\u65c5\u6e38\u4e0e\u672c\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6e83\u8d25<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u60f0\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ea4\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u201c\u5bfb\u79df\u9636\u5c42\u201d\uff08Rent-extraction layer\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5e73\u53f0\u8fde\u63a5\u4f9b\u9700\uff0c\u4ece\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u4f63\u91d1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5177\u5907\u8d85\u5f3a\u903b\u8f91\u63a8\u7406\u3001\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u8bc6\u522b\u4e0e\u81ea\u4e3b\u6267\u884c\u80fd\u529b\u7684AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\uff08\u5982\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f00\u6e90\u6a21\u578bQwen\u6f14\u8fdb\u800c\u6765\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u4ee3\u7406\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u201c\u4e60\u60ef\u4e0e\u6469\u64e6\u201d\u7684\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6a21\u5f0f\u5937\u4e3a\u5e73\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6d88\u8d39\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\u5c06\u7531\u5bb9\u6613\u75b2\u52b3\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5e7f\u544a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u8fd0\u884c\u3001\u6781\u81f4\u7406\u6027\u7684\u540e\u53f0\u4f18\u5316\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52302027\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e2a\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u5c06\u65e0\u5f62\u4e2d\u6d88\u8017\u591a\u8fbe40\u4e07\u4e2aToken\u7684\u7b97\u529b\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2a\u4ebaAI\u4ee3\u7406\u5728\u540e\u53f0\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4e0d\u95f4\u65ad\u6bd4\u4ef7\u3001\u81ea\u52a8\u7eed\u8d39\u5ba1\u67e5\u548c\u6700\u4f18\u8def\u5f84\u89c4\u5212\uff08\u8fd9\u4e00\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cf\u662f2026\u5e74\u5e95\u768410\u500d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u673a\u5668\u4ee3\u7406\u6ca1\u6709\u54c1\u724c\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u67d0\u6b3eAPP\u7684UI\u754c\u9762\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7cbe\u7f8e\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u6211\u603b\u662f\u4ece\u8fd9\u91cc\u70b9\u9910\u201d\u7684\u60f0\u6027\u800c\u9009\u62e9\u9ed8\u8ba4\u7684\u9ad8\u6ea2\u4ef7\u9009\u9879\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982DoorDash\u3001Uber Eats\u7b49\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e60\u60ef\u3001\u9ad8\u8f6c\u6362\u6210\u672c\u548c\u5e94\u7528\u5185\u95ed\u73af\u751f\u6001\u7684\u672c\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u4e0e\u5916\u5356\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u5176\u5546\u4e1a\u903b\u8f91\u88ab\u65e0\u60c5\u6467\u6bc1\u3002AI\u4ee3\u7406\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u6beb\u79d2\u7ea7\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7f51\u6293\u53d6\u5e76\u9a8c\u8bc1\u6700\u5177\u6027\u4ef7\u6bd4\u7684\u9910\u996e\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u51fa\u884c\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u5e76\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e\u6e90\u5934\u5546\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884cAPI\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u5f7b\u5e95\u74e6\u89e3\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u805a\u5408\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u5206\u53d1\u6743\u548c\u9ad8\u8fbe20%-30%\u7684\u62bd\u6210\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u8ba2\u9605\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u5728\u7ebf\u65c5\u6e38\u9884\u8ba2\uff08OTA\uff09\u548c\u4fdd\u9669\u7ecf\u7eaa\u9886\u57df\u3002AI\u4ee3\u7406\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u8fdb\u884c\u9ad8\u9891\u7684\u201c\u4eba\u8d28\u5f0f\u8c08\u5224\u201d\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u53d6\u6d88\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\u8ba2\u9605\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u65f6\u4ef7\u683c\u52a8\u6001\u91cd\u7ec4\u65c5\u884c\u884c\u7a0b\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6bcf\u5e74\u4fdd\u9669\u7eed\u7ea6\u65f6\u81ea\u52a8\u6293\u53d6\u5168\u7f51\u6700\u4f4e\u62a5\u4ef7\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u7ec8\u7ed3\u4e86\u670d\u52a1\u5546\u8fc7\u53bb\u4f9d\u8d56\u201c\u4fdd\u5355\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u60ef\u6027\u201d\u548c\u201c\u88ab\u52a8\u7eed\u8ba2\u201d\u6240\u83b7\u53d6\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u652f\u4ed8\u7ba1\u9053\u7684\u91cd\u7f6e\u4e0e\u4e07\u4e8b\u8fbe\u5361\u7684\u5371\u673a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u652f\u4ed8\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e2d\u4ecb\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u66b4\u70c8\u548c\u8fc5\u901f\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u652f\u4ed8\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u5e9e\u5927\u6e05\u7b97\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u5546\u5bb6\u5219\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4e3a\u6b64\u652f\u4ed82%\u81f33%\u7684\u9ad8\u6602\u4ea4\u6362\u8d39\uff08Interchange rate\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/B3lFfFIcFFLtmVQ0gKjj.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u7531AI\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\uff08M2M\uff09\u5546\u4e1a\u751f\u6001\u540e\uff0c\u8fd92%-3%\u7684\u6469\u64e6\u6210\u672c\u8fc5\u901f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4f18\u5316\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u9996\u8981\u6253\u51fb\u76ee\u6807\u3002AI\u4ee3\u7406\u65e0\u9700\u7269\u7406\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u7f16\u7a0b\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5728\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u6700\u5feb\u3001\u6700\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u652f\u4ed8\u8def\u7531\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u6d77\u91cf\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u4ea4\u6613\u88ab\u8fc5\u901f\u8fc1\u79fb\u81f3\u57fa\u4e8eSolana\u516c\u94fe\u6216\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u4e8c\u5c42\u7f51\u7edc\uff08Ethereum L2s\uff09\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7ed3\u7b97\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ed3\u7b97\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u77ac\u95f4\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u5355\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4ec5\u4ee5\u51e0\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7f8e\u5206\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u652f\u4ed8\u6469\u64e6\u5f52\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0cCitrini\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u865a\u6784\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd2027\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u4e07\u4e8b\u8fbe\u5361\uff08Mastercard\uff09\u8d22\u62a5\uff0c\u8d22\u62a5\u6458\u8981\u663e\u793a\u5176\u603b\u8d2d\u4e70\u91cf\uff08Purchase Volume\uff09\u589e\u901f\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u76845.9%\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u653e\u7f13\u81f33.4%\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u5728\u8d22\u62a5\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u65e0\u5948\u627f\u8ba4\u201c\u4ee3\u7406\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4f18\u5316\u201d\u6b63\u5728\u65e0\u60c5\u5730\u541e\u566c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u6da6\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u201c\u6536\u8d39\u7ad9\u201d\u6b63\u5728\u88abAI\u6280\u672f\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7ed5\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u5237\u5361\u624b\u7eed\u8d39\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u5173\u8054\u53d1\u5361\u94f6\u884c\uff08\u5982American Express\u3001Capital One\uff09\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e13\u4e1a\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u201c\u5185\u5377\u201d\uff1a\u4f63\u91d1\u7387\u7684\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u5d29\u584c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f9d\u8d56\u590d\u6742\u6027\u5904\u7406\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u670d\u52a1\u9886\u57df\u540c\u6837\u672a\u80fd\u5e78\u514d\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7ecf\u7eaa\u3001\u7a0e\u52a1\u7b79\u5212\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u6cd5\u5f8b\u54a8\u8be2\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4f9d\u9760\u7740\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6761\u6587\u7684\u7e41\u7410\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u6d41\u7a0b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u6765\u6536\u53d6\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u8d39\u3002\u4f46\u5728AGI\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0cAI\u4ee3\u7406\u77ac\u95f4\u5c31\u80fd\u6444\u53d6\u5e76\u638c\u63e1\u6d77\u91cf\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6587\u4e66\u548c\u7a0e\u52a1\u6cd5\u89c4\uff0c\u4e14\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u590d\u6742\u6027\u201c\u4e00\u70b9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u67af\u71e5\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ea4\u6613\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7ecf\u7eaa\u4eba\u901a\u5e38\u6536\u53d6\u623f\u5c4b\u603b\u4ef72.5%\u81f33%\u7684\u4f63\u91d1\u3002\u4f46\u5728AI\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u80fd\u591f\u5b8c\u7f8e\u590d\u5236\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8d8a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7ecf\u7eaa\u4eba\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93\u548c\u8c08\u5224\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u4f63\u91d1\u7387\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u88ab\u6781\u5ea6\u538b\u7f29\u81f3\u4e0d\u52301%\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u5728AI\u4ee3\u7406\u52a0\u6301\u4e0b\uff0c\u884c\u4e1a\u5185\u90e8\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e89\u593a\u6709\u9650\u4ea4\u6613\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u4ef7\u683c\u6218\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u620f\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u5bf9\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u201d\uff08Agent on Agent Violence\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/m5eWHqnoc7nuBNkZ78FV.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-5\">\u5b8f\u89c2\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u94fe\u5f0f\u4f20\u67d3\uff1a\u4ece\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u5230\u4f18\u8d28\u623f\u8d37\u7684\u96ea\u5d29<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u7684\u6d41\u5931\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u5fae\u89c2\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6760\u6746\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7aef\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u67af\u7aed\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4f1a\u5411\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u5e02\u573a\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u917f\u6210\u4e0d\u53ef\u6536\u62fe\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002Citrini Research\u5728\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e2d\u6df1\u523b\u63a8\u6f14\u4e86\u4e24\u6761\u6781\u5177\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4f20\u67d3\u94fe\u6761\uff1a\u5e95\u5c42SaaS\u8870\u9000\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\uff08Private Credit\uff09\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6f6e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u767d\u9886\u5931\u4e1a\u6f6e\u5f15\u7206\u7684\u4f18\u8d28\u4f4f\u5b85\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff08Prime Residential Mortgages\uff09\u8fde\u9501\u65ad\u4f9b\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u591a\u7c73\u8bfa\u9aa8\u724c\uff1a\u6760\u6746\u6536\u8d2d\u4e0e\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u7834\u88c2<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u57fa\u91d1\uff08PE\uff09\u6df1\u5ea6\u4ecb\u5165\u4e86\u8f6f\u4ef6\u884c\u4e1a\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6760\u6746\u6536\u8d2d\uff08LBO\uff09\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u6216\u6ce8\u8d44\u4e86\u5927\u91cfSaaS\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u57fa\u77f3\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u673a\u6784\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8\u770b\u4f3c\u6781\u5176\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u590d\u8d2d\u7387\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u6536\u5165\uff08ARR\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\uff0c\u53d1\u884c\u4e86\u6570\u767e\u4e0a\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\uff08Private Debt\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff08Daisy chain of correlated bets\uff09\u6784\u6210\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7f51\u7edc\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5e95\u5c42\u8d44\u4ea7\u6c60\u51fa\u73b0\u677e\u52a8\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u5c31\u4f1a\u77ac\u95f4\u5d29\u584c\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u524d\u6587\u5bf9SaaSpocalypse\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5f53AI\u7f16\u7a0b\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u5ba2\u6237\u5ec9\u4ef7\u81ea\u5efa\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4SaaS\u8ba2\u9605\u88ab\u5927\u91cf\u53d6\u6d88\u3001\u5ba2\u6237\u8981\u6c42\u5de8\u989d\u7eed\u7ea6\u6298\u6263\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u88abPE\u652f\u6301\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u57282027\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u9762\u4e34\u6025\u5267\u67af\u7aed\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u4e8ePE\u6536\u8d2d\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u6760\u6746\u7387\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u516c\u53f8\u8425\u6536\u589e\u901f\u4e0d\u53ca\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u589e\u901f\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u89e6\u53d1\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6761\u6b3e\uff08Covenants\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f9d\u9644\u4e8eSaaS\u884c\u4e1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u795e\u8bdd\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u4fe1\u8d37\u6ce1\u6cab\u77ac\u95f4\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u51cf\u503c\u66f4\u8feb\u4f7f\u975e\u94f6\u884c\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u67af\u7aed\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u79c1\u4eba\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u7d27\u7f29\u968f\u540e\u53cd\u566c\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u8425\u8fd0\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u88c1\u5458\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u87ba\u65cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ec8\u6781\u98ce\u66b4\u773c\uff1a13\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4f18\u8d28\u623f\u8d37\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5d29\u584c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u7834\u88c2\u53ea\u662f\u91cd\u521b\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u8fbe13\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4f4f\u5b85\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5219\u5f7b\u5e95\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u56de\u987e2008\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u90a3\u573a\u5371\u673a\u7684\u9707\u6e90\u4e2d\u5fc3\u662f\u4fe1\u7528\u8d44\u8d28\u8f83\u5dee\u3001\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6b21\u7ea7\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\uff08Subprime Borrowers\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u57282026\u5e74\u7684\u524d\u591c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u6781\u5176\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c2026\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u507f\u8fd8\u652f\u51fa\u4ec5\u5360\u5176\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u768411.3%\uff0c\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e2007\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u524d15.8%\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u906d\u9047\u5230\u6781\u5176\u6781\u7aef\u4e14\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6536\u5165\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u623f\u8d37\u5e02\u573a\u672c\u4e0d\u5e94\u51fa\u73b0\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728Citrini\u6240\u63a8\u6f14\u76842028\u5e74\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u519b\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u9636\u5c42\u4e0a\u79fb\u2014\u2014\u66fe\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u6781\u9ad8FICO\u4fe1\u7528\u8bc4\u5206\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f53\u9762\u4e14\u6536\u5165\u4e30\u539a\u7684\u201c\u4f18\u8d28\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u201d\uff08Prime Borrowers\uff09\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u65ad\u4f9b\u7684\u91cd\u707e\u533a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u6b63\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5728\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\u3001\u897f\u96c5\u56fe\u6216\u7845\u8c37\u4ece\u4e8b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5f00\u53d1\u3001\u4e2d\u5c42\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\u54a8\u8be2\u3001\u6587\u6848\u7b56\u5212\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u7684\u767d\u9886\u9636\u5c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u5360\u636e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u767d\u9886\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u6536\u5165\u662f\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u5e9e\u5927\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u6d41\u7825\u67f1\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u201d\u5c06\u8fd9\u6279\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u7fa4\u4f53\u6210\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u6324\u51fa\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6781\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4e27\u5931\u4e86\u652f\u4ed8\u9ad8\u989d\u623f\u8d37\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4f18\u8d28\u4fe1\u8d37\u8d44\u4ea7\u5728\u77ac\u95f4\u6ca6\u4e3a\u4e0d\u826f\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\uff08MBS\uff09\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u968f\u4e4b\u66b4\u8dcc\u3002\u6839\u636e\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u63a8\u6f14\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5371\u673a\u76f4\u63a5\u88ad\u51fb\u4e86\u4fe1\u7528\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u9876\u5c42\uff0c\u5176\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8870\u9000\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u6050\u614c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u7834\u574f\u529b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e862008\u5e74\u7684\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u57282027\u5e74\u672b\u906d\u9047\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u91cd\u632b\u7684\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u91cd\u5851\uff1a\u5370\u5ea6IT\u5916\u5305\u9738\u6743\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u573a\u7531AGI\u6280\u672f\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u5176\u7834\u574f\u529b\u5e76\u672a\u88ab\u5c40\u9650\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u7684\u7586\u57df\u5185\u3002\u5b83\u6cbf\u7740\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5206\u5de5\u4e0e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u5916\u5305\u7684\u8109\u7edc\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5916\u56f4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u65e0\u60c5\u7684\u964d\u7ef4\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d7\u51b2\u51fb\u6700\u4e3a\u4e25\u91cd\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ed3\u6784\u9762\u4e34\u89e3\u4f53\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u5c5e\u4ee5\u5370\u5ea6\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684IT\u670d\u52a1\u5916\u5305\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4eba\u53e3\u7ea2\u5229\u548c\u8bed\u8a00\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6bcf\u5e74\u5411\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u503c\u8d85\u8fc72000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684IT\u4e0e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5f00\u53d1\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e3a\u6570\u5343\u4e07\u5370\u5ea6\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u85aa\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u8be5\u56fd\u79ef\u7d2f\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u3001\u5e73\u8861\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u4ee5\u53ca\u7ef4\u6301\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6838\u5fc3\u5f15\u64ce\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6IT\u5916\u5305\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u5957\u5229\u201d\uff08Labor cost arbitrage\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u4f4d\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7845\u8c37\u3001\u7ebd\u7ea6\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u8de8\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u5de8\u5934\u4e0e\u79d1\u6280\u4f01\u4e1a\u5f00\u59cb\u5168\u9762\u91c7\u7528\u6210\u672c\u6781\u4f4e\u3001\u4e0d\u77e5\u75b2\u5026\u3001\u65e0\u9700\u6c9f\u901a\u4e14\u9519\u8bef\u7387\u5448\u73b0\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u4e0b\u964d\u7684AI\u4ee3\u7801\u4ee3\u7406\uff08\u5982\u8fdb\u5316\u7248\u7684Devin\u3001Cursor\u5e95\u5c42\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u4e3b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6846\u67b6\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u6240\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6210\u672c\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u673a\u5668\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6548\u7387\u9762\u524d\u77ac\u95f4\u88ab\u62b9\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728Citrini\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\uff0c\u50cf\u5854\u5854\u54a8\u8be2\u670d\u52a1\u516c\u53f8\uff08TCS\uff09\u3001Infosys\u548cWipro\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5370\u5ea6IT\u5de8\u5934\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e94\u5bf9AI\u7f16\u7801\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u7684\u964d\u7ef4\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u5176\u6765\u81ea\u6b27\u7f8e\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u9879\u76ee\u8ba2\u5355\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u5ba2\u6237\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u51cf\u4e86\u5bf9\u5e95\u5c42\u4ee3\u7801\u7f16\u5199\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5916\u5305\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u539f\u672c\u5916\u5305\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3\u5185\u90e8\u7684AI\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5916\u5305\u4f01\u4e1a\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u8425\u6536\u7684\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u800c\u8a00\u5219\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u67af\u7aed\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u6781\u5176\u51b7\u9177\u5730\u63a8\u6f14\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u540e\u679c\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u88ab\u5f7b\u5e95\u62b9\u5e73\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u5371\u673a\u3002\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u8e29\u8e0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5362\u6bd4\u5728\u77ed\u77ed\u6570\u6708\u5185\u5927\u5e45\u8d2c\u503c\u4e8618%\u3002\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u89c1\u5e95\u548c\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8feb\u4f7f\u5370\u5ea6\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u57282028\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u5c48\u8fb1\u5730\u5411\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u5bfb\u6c42\u7d27\u6025\u8d22\u653f\u63f4\u52a9\u53ca\u503a\u52a1\u91cd\u7ec4\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b8f\u89c2\u63a8\u6f14\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u5355\u4e00\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8b66\u793a\uff0c\u5b83\u66f4\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b8b\u9177\u7684\u672a\u6765\u56fe\u666f\uff1a\u5728AGI\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u4f4e\u7aef\u8111\u529b\u52b3\u52a8\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u4ea7\u4e1a\u878d\u5165\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9636\u5c42\u8dc3\u5347\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5c06\u88ab\u5f7b\u5e95\u4e14\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u5730\u5c01\u6b7b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-6\">\u793e\u4f1a\u5951\u7ea6\u7684\u6495\u88c2\u4e0e\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5e72\u9884\u535a\u5f08<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u4ee5\u51e0\u4f55\u7ea7\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u8d22\u5bcc\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8d2b\u56f0\u4e0e\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5951\u7ea6\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u4f53\u7cfb\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u8106\u5f31\u3001\u6ede\u540e\u4e14\u529b\u4e0d\u4ece\u5fc3\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86\u5728\u6b64\u79cd\u751f\u5b58\u5371\u673a\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7acb\u6cd5\u8005\u5728\u7edd\u5883\u4e2d\u88ab\u8feb\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6fc0\u8fdb\u653f\u7b56\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9636\u7ea7\u6124\u6012\u4e0e\u201c\u5360\u9886\u7845\u8c37\u201d\u8fd0\u52a8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u76f4\u63a5\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u8d56\u4ee5\u7ef4\u7cfb\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5951\u7ea6\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u865a\u6784\u4e86\u57282028\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u4e00\u573a\u89c4\u6a21\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u2014\u2014\u201c\u5360\u9886\u7845\u8c37\u201d\uff08Occupy Silicon Valley\uff09\u3002\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u5931\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u5931\u53bb\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u8eab\u4efd\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u56e0\u65ad\u4f9b\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u4f4f\u623f\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u767d\u9886\uff0c\u5728\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u8857\u5934\u624e\u8425\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fde\u7eed\u6570\u5468\u7528\u8089\u8eab\u5c01\u9501\u4e86OpenAI\u548cAnthropic\u7b49\u9876\u7ea7AI\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u529e\u516c\u5927\u697c\u5165\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u6620\u5c04\u4e86\u666e\u7f57\u5927\u4f17\u5bf9\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u79d1\u6280\u7cbe\u82f1\u5784\u65ad\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7ea2\u5229\u7684\u6781\u5ea6\u6124\u6012\u3002\u5728\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6c11\u4f17\u773c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u53f2\u65e0\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7206\u70b8\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u88ab\u6beb\u65e0\u8282\u5236\u5730\u8f93\u9001\u7ed9\u4e86\u638c\u63e1\u7b97\u529b\u9738\u6743\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6240\u6709\u8005\u3001\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u5de8\u5934\u4ee5\u53caAI\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79d1\u6280\u65b0\u8d35\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u79ef\u7d2f\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u8ba919\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u671f\u5784\u65ad\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u201c\u9540\u91d1\u65f6\u4ee3\u201d\uff08Gilded Age\uff09\u90fd\u663e\u5f97\u6e29\u548c\u800c\u6536\u655b\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5e7f\u5927\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u82b1\u8d39\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u6295\u5165\u5de8\u989d\u6559\u80b2\u6210\u672c\u624d\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u6280\u80fd\u4e0e\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5374\u88ab\u6b63\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fed\u4ee3\u8fdb\u5316\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u65e0\u60c5\u5730\u5546\u54c1\u5316\u3001\u5ec9\u4ef7\u5316\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u88ab\u629b\u5f03\u5728\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u5783\u573e\u573a\u4e2d\u3002\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9AI\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684\u618e\u6076\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u57282008\u5e74\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\uff08GFC\uff09\u540e\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u8d2a\u5a6a\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u7684\u4ec7\u6068\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d22\u653f\u673a\u5668\u7684\u5931\u7075\u4e0e\u7acb\u6cd5\u81ea\u6551<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9762\u5bf9\u6c79\u6d8c\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u548c\u884c\u5c06\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e95\u76d8\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7cfb\u7edf\u540c\u6837\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u8fdb\u9000\u7ef4\u8c37\u7684\u505c\u6446\u72b6\u6001\u3002Citrini\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e00\u9488\u89c1\u8840\u5730\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u73b0\u4ee3\u56fd\u5bb6\u7a0e\u6536\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u77db\u76fe\uff1a\u201c\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5c81\u5165\u57fa\u7840\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0e\u52b3\u52a8\u7684\u5f81\u7a0e\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5de5\u4f5c\u521b\u9020\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u652f\u4ed8\u85aa\u6c34\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4ece\u4e2d\u62bd\u53d6\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u548c\u5de5\u8d44\u7a0e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u5de5\u4f5c\u88ab\u514d\u7a0e\u7684\u673a\u5668\u7b97\u6cd5\u66ff\u4ee3\u65f6\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u4e0e\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u51fa\u73b0\u65ad\u5d16\u5f0f\u9510\u51cf\uff1b\u800c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u53c8\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d22\u653f\u6700\u4e3a\u62ee\u636e\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u62ff\u51fa\u5929\u6587\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5411\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u5bb6\u5ead\u63d0\u4f9b\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u548c\u4f4f\u623f\u8865\u8d34\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6b62\u793e\u4f1a\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5f7b\u5e95\u5d29\u6e83\u548c\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u707e\u96be\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6536\u652f\u4e24\u7aef\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u201c\u526a\u5200\u5dee\u201d\uff0c\u5c06\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u63a8\u5411\u4e86\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u6df1\u6e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d89\u53ca\u56fd\u5bb6\u751f\u6b7b\u5b58\u4ea1\u7684\u7edd\u5883\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e86\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u53ca\u653f\u754c\u88ab\u8feb\u642c\u4e0a\u53f0\u9762\u7684\u4e24\u9879\u6fc0\u8fdb\u6cd5\u6848\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300a\u8fc7\u6e21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08The Transition Economy Act\uff09\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u8865\u7684\u4e24\u515a\u5171\u8bc6\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u6269\u5927\u8054\u90a6\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5e76\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u7a0e\u57fa\u2014\u2014\u201cAI\u63a8\u7406\u7b97\u529b\u7a0e\u201d\uff08AI Inference Power Tax\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u63d0\u6848\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u8c03\u7528AI\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u7406\u6240\u6d88\u8017\u7684\u7b97\u529b\u8d44\u6e90\u5f81\u6536\u60e9\u7f5a\u6027\u6216\u8c03\u8282\u6027\u7a0e\u6536\uff08\u5373\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u5f81\u7a0e\uff09\uff0c\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u9879\u8d44\u91d1\u6c60\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u91d1\u5c06\u4f5c\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\uff08Direct transfers\uff09\uff0c\u53d1\u653e\u7ed9\u90a3\u4e9b\u56e0AI\u90e8\u7f72\u800c\u88ab\u8feb\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u52a8\u8361\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u57fa\u672c\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300aAI\u5171\u4eab\u7e41\u8363\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08The Shared AI Prosperity Act\uff09\uff1a\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u524d\u8005\u7684\u6e29\u548c\u6539\u826f\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u7531\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5de6\u7ffc\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u63d0\u6848\u5219\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u98a0\u8986\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u8d22\u4ea7\u6743\u5c5e\u67b6\u6784\u3002\u8be5\u6cd5\u6848\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u65e2\u7136AI\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u6c72\u53d6\u4e86\u5168\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u667a\u6167\u7ed3\u6676\uff0c\u4e14\u5176\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee3\u8868\u5168\u4f53\u516c\u6c11\u5bf9AI\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u672c\u8eab\u786e\u7acb\u201c\u516c\u5171\u7d22\u53d6\u6743\u201d\uff08Public Claim\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u673a\u5236\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e3b\u6743\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Sovereign Wealth Fund\uff09\u548cAI\u7edd\u5bf9\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u7279\u8bb8\u6743\u4f7f\u7528\u8d39\uff08Royalty on AI\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002\u8be5\u57fa\u91d1\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5de8\u989d\u7ea2\u5229\uff0c\u5c06\u88ab\u6e90\u6e90\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u7528\u4e8e\u5411\u5168\u6c11\u53d1\u653e\u65e0\u6761\u4ef6\u57fa\u672c\u6536\u5165\uff08UBI\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5207\u65ad\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u5b58\u4e0e\u51fa\u552e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f3a\u5236\u7ed1\u5b9a\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u8d22\u5bcc\u518d\u5206\u914d\u4e43\u81f3\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8bbe\u60f3\uff0c\u7acb\u523b\u906d\u5230\u4e86\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u8d22\u9600\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u6e38\u8bf4\u56e2\u4f53\u4ee5\u53ca\u53f3\u7ffc\u653f\u6cbb\u52bf\u529b\u7684\u731b\u70c8\u62a8\u51fb\u4e0e\u963b\u51fb\u3002\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u6ca1\u6536\u6027\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u4e0e\u76f2\u76ee\u7684\u798f\u5229\u53d1\u653e\u5c06\u6467\u6bc1\u521b\u65b0\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u901a\u5f80\u8d2b\u56f0\u4e0e\u6781\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5371\u9669\u6ed1\u5761\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6574\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u6495\u88c2\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-7\">\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8bc1\u4f2a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Citrini Research\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u672b\u65e5\u63a8\u6f14\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u7acb\u523b\u62db\u81f4\u4e86\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e3b\u6d41\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\u4e0d\u6ee1\u4e0e\u53cd\u51fb\u3002\u4ee5\u767e\u4ebf\u5bcc\u7fc1Ken Griffin\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u9ad8\u9891\u4ea4\u6613\u53ca\u505a\u5e02\u5de8\u5934Citadel Securities\uff08\u57ce\u5821\u8bc1\u5238\uff09\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e3b\u529b\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of America\uff09\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u5185\u7684\u591a\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u53d1\u5e03\u6781\u5176\u8be6\u5b9e\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7b56\u7565\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u5b9e\u65f6\u9ad8\u9891\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u201c\u8d5b\u535a\u670b\u514b\u5f0f\u201d\u7684\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9010\u5c42\u89e3\u6784\u4e0e\u8bc1\u4f2a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u770b\u6765\uff0cCitrini\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u201d\uff0c\u5176\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5bf9\u5b8f\u89c2\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u8bef\u89e3\u548c\u5bf9\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u8fdb\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5916\u63a8\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u66f4\u662f\u6beb\u4e0d\u5ba2\u6c14\u5730\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u201c\u8fdd\u80cc\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u8d26\u6237\u4f1a\u8ba1\u51c6\u5219\u201d\u3002\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5bf9\u201c\u672b\u65e5\u8bba\u201d\u7684\u6709\u529b\u53cd\u51fb\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u51e0\u4e2a\u575a\u5b9e\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6cd5\u5219\u7684\u521a\u6027\u5236\u7ea6\uff1a\u7b97\u529b\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fb9\u754c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Citadel Securities\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u4eec\u6781\u5176\u654f\u9510\u5730\u6293\u4f4f\u4e86Citrini\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u81f4\u547d\u8f6f\u808b\uff1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u786c\u6027\u7ea6\u675f\u6761\u4ef6\u3002Citrini\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u201d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u9012\u5f52\u6280\u672f\u9519\u8bef\u201d\uff08Recursive technology error\uff09\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3aAI\u53ef\u4ee5\u65e0\u9650\u3001\u65e0\u963b\u529b\u5730\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u5df1\u7f16\u5199\u4ee3\u7801\u6765\u4f18\u5316\u81ea\u8eab\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u66ff\u4ee3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65e0\u9650\u590d\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0cCitadel\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u4e0e\u7269\u7406\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u9762\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e43\u81f3\u6dd8\u6c70\u767d\u9886\u9636\u5c42\u6240\u9700\u6267\u884c\u7684\u6781\u5176\u590d\u6742\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u4ea4\u4e92\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5176\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f3a\u5ea6\u548c\u7b97\u529b\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u5c06\u6bd4\u73b0\u6709\u7684GPT-4\u7b49\u6a21\u578b\u9ad8\u51fa\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u4f1a\u89e6\u78b0\u5230\u786c\u6838\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5929\u82b1\u677f\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u7535\u7f51\u7684\u627f\u8f7d\u4e0e\u4f9b\u7535\u8d1f\u8377\u6781\u9650\u3001AI\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6c34\u51b7\u4e0e\u6563\u70ed\u80fd\u529b\u7269\u7406\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u9636GPU\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u74f6\u9888\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7269\u7406\u9650\u5236\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u201d\u3002\u5f53\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u75af\u72c2\u90e8\u7f72AI\u65f6\uff0c\u7535\u529b\u548c\u7b97\u529b\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fb9\u7f18\u7b97\u529b\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\u6210\u672c\u5448\u73b0\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u98d9\u5347\u3002Citadel\u8bba\u8bc1\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5f53\u52a8\u7528\u7b97\u529b\u53bb\u6267\u884c\u67d0\u9879\u7279\u5b9a\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u5e76\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u96c7\u4f63\u540c\u7b49\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6240\u9700\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u85aa\u6c34\u65f6\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u7528AI\u66ff\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u5c31\u4f1a\u77ac\u95f4\u74e6\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u9053\u7531\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6cd5\u5219\u6f14\u5316\u800c\u6765\u7684\u201c\u81ea\u7136\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fb9\u754c\u201d\uff08Natural economic boundary\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u6709\u6548\u963b\u6b62AI\u66ff\u4ee3\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u8513\u5ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u5b9e\u65f6\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6253\u8138\u4e0e\u6280\u672f\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u672c\u8d28<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u9a73Citrini\u5173\u4e8e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u53ca\u54a8\u8be2\u4eba\u5458\u5373\u5c06\u88ab\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u6dd8\u6c70\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7acb\u8bba\uff0cCitadel\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u6765\u81ea\u6c42\u804c\u5e73\u53f0Indeed\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5b9e\u65f6\u9ad8\u9891\u62db\u8058\u6570\u636e\u3002\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u57282026\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u201cSaaSpocalypse\u201d\u7684\u524d\u591c\uff0c\u5168\u7f8e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u7684\u62db\u8058\u9700\u6c42\u975e\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5982\u9884\u6d4b\u822c\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u5e45\u9ad8\u8fbe11%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0cCitadel\u8fd8\u8c03\u7528\u4e86\u5723\u8def\u6613\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08St. Louis Fed\uff09\u9488\u5bf9\u5b9e\u65f6\u4eba\u53e3\u8c03\u67e5\uff08RTPS\uff09\u7684\u4e25\u8c28\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5206\u6790\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5458\u5de5\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u5de5\u4f5c\u573a\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u751f\u6210\u5f0fAI\u7684\u9891\u7387\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u4e00\u79cd\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\uff08Unexpectedly stable\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u6467\u6bc1\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u7684\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u5931\u63a7\u7206\u53d1\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u8fd9\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u767d\u9886\u9762\u4e34\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5c97\u4f4d\u88ab\u5f3a\u5236\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9ad8\u76db\uff08Goldman Sachs\uff09\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u540c\u6837\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u514b\u5236\u548c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cAI\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6d41\u8f6c\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6469\u64e6\u6027\u5931\u4e1a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba12026\u5e74\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5c0f\u5e45\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u6f02\u79fb\uff0c\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u8fbe\u52304.5%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u8ddd\u79bbCitrini\u5371\u8a00\u8038\u542c\u7684\u201c2028\u5e74\u8fbe\u523010.2%\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7ea7\u522b\u201d\u6709\u7740\u5929\u58e4\u4e4b\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u575a\u4fe1\uff0cAI\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u76ee\u7684\u6280\u672f\uff08GPT\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5c5e\u6027\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u7684\u201c\u4e92\u8865\u54c1\u201d\uff08Complement\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\u201c\u5b8c\u5168\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u201d\uff08Substitute\uff09\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u84b8\u6c7d\u673a\u3001\u7535\u529b\u7f51\u7edc\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5f15\u5165\u603b\u662f\u5145\u5f53\u6760\u6746\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u7c7b\u80fd\u591f\u4ece\u7e41\u7410\u3001\u5371\u9669\u6216\u673a\u68b0\u7684\u91cd\u590d\u6027\u52b3\u52a8\u4e2d\u89e3\u653e\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u53bb\u63a7\u5236\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u5e76\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u66f4\u5177\u521b\u9020\u6027\u3001\u60c5\u611f\u8fde\u7ed3\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7edf\u7b79\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u9644\u52a0\u503c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\uff08Jevons Paradox\uff09\u4e0e\u6d77\u91cf\u65b0\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u521b\u9020<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u8bc1\u5238\u90e8\u95e8\uff08Bank of America Securities\uff09\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Claudio Irigoyen\u548cAntonio Gabriel\uff0c\u5c06\u6279\u5224\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6b66\u5668\u5bf9\u51c6\u4e86\u53e4\u5178\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u8457\u540d\u7684\u201c\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\u201d\uff08Jevons Paradox\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\u6700\u65e9\u753119\u4e16\u7eaa\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u6770\u6587\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u4ed6\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u7164\u70ad\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u6548\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u7164\u70ad\u7684\u6d88\u8017\u91cf\u975e\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u56e0\u4e3a\u84b8\u6c7d\u673a\u4f7f\u7528\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u800c\u5927\u5e45\u523a\u6fc0\u4e86\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u7164\u70ad\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u540c\u6837\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u89c4\u5f8b\u57281980\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u8868\u683c\u8f6f\u4ef6\uff08Spreadsheets\uff0c\u5982Excel\u7684\u524d\u8eab\uff09\u8bde\u751f\u65f6\u518d\u6b21\u4e0a\u6f14\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7684\u7c3f\u8bb0\u5458\u548c\u4f4e\u7ea7\u6838\u7b97\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5e08\u6781\u5ea6\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u5728\u51e0\u79d2\u949f\u5185\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u5468\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cf\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5c06\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7edf\u7edf\u5931\u4e1a\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8d22\u52a1\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u5176\u5ec9\u4ef7\u548c\u5feb\u6377\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea7\u751f\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u201c\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5316\u8d22\u52a1\u5206\u6790\u201d\u3001\u201c\u60c5\u5883\u5efa\u6a21\u201d\u548c\u201c\u9ad8\u9891\u8d44\u4ea7\u91cd\u4f30\u201d\u7684\u5e9e\u5927\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u8fd9\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5728\u6b64\u540e\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff08CFA\uff09\u3001\u5ba1\u8ba1\u5e08\u548c\u9ad8\u7ea7\u4f1a\u8ba1\u7ba1\u7406\u7c7b\u5c97\u4f4d\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u7206\u70b8\u5f0f\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u5341\u500d\u767e\u500d\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u7406\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679cAI\u4ee3\u7406\u7684\u666e\u53ca\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u4f01\u4e1a\u7f16\u5199\u4ee3\u7801\u6216\u5904\u7406\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6587\u6863\u7684\u6210\u672c\u964d\u4f4e90%\uff0c\u5904\u4e8e\u6fc0\u70c8\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u7684\u672c\u80fd\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u662f\u6cbe\u6cbe\u81ea\u559c\u5730\u89e3\u96c790%\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5458\u5e76\u7ef4\u6301\u73b0\u72b6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u6279\u6781\u5176\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u751f\u6210\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53bb\u5927\u80c6\u5f00\u53d1\u6570\u91cf\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u591a\u5341\u500d\u751a\u81f3\u767e\u500d\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u52a0\u5e9e\u5927\u590d\u6742\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u6548\u7387\u7684\u98de\u8dc3\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u50ac\u751f\u51fa\u4eba\u7c7b\u76ee\u524d\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u5168\u65b0\u4ea7\u4e1a\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u5168\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u4e30\u539a\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5177\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff1a\u57281900\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u636e\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u768440%\uff0c\u800c\u7531\u4e8e\u519c\u4e1a\u673a\u68b0\u5316\u7684\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5df2\u7ecf\u964d\u81f3\u533a\u533a1%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9ad8\u8fbe39%\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5bfc\u81f4\u957f\u8fbe\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u5927\u8427\u6761\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u5d29\u584c\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u88ab\u4ece\u571f\u5730\u4e0a\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6d77\u91cf\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e73\u7a33\u5730\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e2d\uff0c\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd20\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7a7a\u524d\u7e41\u8363\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fc7\u6e21\u671f\u4f1a\u6709\u77ed\u6682\u7684\u9635\u75db\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u81ea\u53d1\u8c03\u8282\u80fd\u529b\uff08Invisible Hand\uff09\u7ec8\u5c06\u6307\u5f15\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5411\u65b0\u8d28\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u8d22\u5bcc\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\uff1a\u7834\u89e3\u201c\u5e7d\u7075GDP\u201d\u7684\u6b7b\u5c40<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9488\u5bf9Citrini\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u201c\u5e7d\u7075GDP\u201d\u6982\u5ff5\u53ca\u5176\u63a8\u5bfc\u51fa\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u840e\u7f29\u4e0e\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u901f\u5ea6\u5d29\u6e83\u8bba\u70b9\uff0cCitadel\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u89c6\u89d2\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u89e3\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/G9KLm5s4iXlwOaHvlOgP.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Citadel\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531AI\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u8dc3\u5347\u4e0e\u6548\u7387\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u5728\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u201c\u6b63\u5411\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff08Positive supply shocks\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u5411\u51b2\u51fb\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u5404\u884c\u5404\u4e1a\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u63a8\u52a8\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u5373\u826f\u6027\u901a\u7f29\u9636\u6bb5\uff09\u3002\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u666e\u904d\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5373\u4fbf\u52b3\u52a8\u8005\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u5de5\u8d44\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u751a\u81f3\u7565\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5176\u624b\u4e2d\u8d27\u5e01\u6240\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u201d\uff08Real income\uff09\u548c\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u4e5f\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6709\u6548\u652f\u6491\u8d77\u66f4\u4e3a\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u6d88\u8d39\u91cf\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u5173\u952e\u7684\u662f\uff0cCitadel\u4e25\u5389\u53cd\u9a73\u4e86Citrini\u5173\u4e8e\u201cAI\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6c89\u6dc0\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u901f\u5ea6\u66b4\u8dcc\u201d\u7684\u9759\u6001\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5728\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u8fd0\u8f6c\u673a\u5236\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4eceAI\u964d\u672c\u589e\u6548\u4e2d\u652b\u53d6\u7684\u5de8\u989d\u5784\u65ad\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u662f\u7edd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u50cf\u5b88\u8d22\u5974\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e00\u6837\u88ab\u6c38\u4e45\u5c01\u5b58\u5728\u5730\u4e0b\u5ba4\u91cc\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u672c\u5229\u6da6\u5fc5\u7136\u8981\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u589e\u503c\u6807\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e3b\u8981\u6e20\u9053\u8fc5\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u6ce8\u5165\u5e76\u6fc0\u8361\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5de8\u989d\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u518d\u6295\u8d44\uff1aAI\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u548c\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u5fc5\u987b\u5c06\u5229\u6da6\u7528\u4e8e\u8d2d\u7f6e\u571f\u5730\u3001\u8d2d\u4e70\u6d77\u91cf\u94a2\u6750\u4e0e\u6c34\u6ce5\u4ee5\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u767e\u4e07\u5361\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u6838\u80fd\u4e0e\u5730\u70ed\u53d1\u7535\u5382\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5c06\u521b\u9020\u6570\u4ee5\u767e\u4e07\u8ba1\u7684\u5efa\u7b51\u3001\u7535\u6c14\u3001\u6750\u6599\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u9ad8\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u65b0\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8bbe\u7acb\u901f\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u6001\u52bf\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5404\u7c7b\u4e0e\u7b97\u529b\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5b9e\u4f53\u4ea7\u4e1a\u6b63\u5728\u706b\u70ed\u62db\u8058\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u90e8\u5206\u5229\u6da6\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8d2d\u3001\u9ad8\u989d\u80a1\u606f\u5206\u7ea2\u7b49\u5f62\u5f0f\u56de\u9988\u7ed9\u6301\u6709\u517b\u8001\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\uff08401k\uff09\u548c\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u666e\u901a\u5927\u4f17\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u80a1\u5e02\u6574\u4f53\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff08Wealth effect\uff09\u7a33\u56fa\u751a\u81f3\u523a\u6fc0\u5bb6\u5ead\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u610f\u613f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e8c\u6b21\u5206\u914d\u7684\u6d93\u6ef4\u6548\u5e94\uff1a\u5bcc\u88d5\u9636\u5c42\u548c\u7a0e\u6536\u90e8\u95e8\u83b7\u53d6\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u6781\u81f4\u7684\u975e\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u670d\u52a1\u6d88\u8d39\uff08\u5982\u9ad8\u7aef\u533b\u7597\u3001\u5b9a\u5236\u5316\u5eb7\u517b\u3001\u60c5\u7eea\u4f53\u9a8c\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u6216\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u57fa\u5efa\u91c7\u8d2d\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u82b1\u51fa\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8d22\u5bcc\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u6d41\u8f6c\u901f\u5ea6\uff08Velocity of spending\uff09\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u800c\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\u548c\u591a\u7ef4\u7684\u5f62\u6001\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.woshipm.com\/wp-files\/2026\/03\/eN9b72HyagjIPr71sL1i.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-8\">\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e0e\u505a\u7a7a\u4e89\u8bae\uff1a\u5265\u5f00\u201c\u672b\u65e5\u62a5\u544a\u201d\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u52a8\u673a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4efd\u5f15\u53d1\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u503c\u84b8\u53d1\u3001\u9707\u52a8\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8fdb\u884c\u8be6\u5c3d\u5256\u6790\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8df3\u51fa\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u4ee5\u66f4\u52a0\u654f\u9510\u7684\u773c\u5149\u5ba1\u89c6\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u672b\u65e5\u53d9\u4e8b\u201d\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u8d44\u672c\u5229\u76ca\u52a8\u673a\u3002\u5728\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5185\u5377\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u89c2\u70b9\u8f93\u51fa\u3001\u60c5\u7eea\u64cd\u7eb5\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0e\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u90e8\u7f72\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u96be\u4ee5\u5206\u5272\u7684\u6697\u7f51\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c31\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6781\u5177\u717d\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u5e03\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u5305\u62ec\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u3001\u652f\u4ed8\u80a1\u5728\u5185\u7684\u6050\u614c\u6027\u629b\u552e\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u5468\u4e00\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5a92\u4f53\u5bf9\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u8054\u5e2d\u4f5c\u8005\u3001Lotus Technology Management\u9996\u5e2d\u6295\u8d44\u5b98Alap Shah\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u5f15\u53d1\u8f69\u7136\u5927\u6ce2\u7684\u89c6\u9891\u4e13\u8bbf\u3002\u5728\u5f6d\u535a\u7535\u89c6\uff08Bloomberg Television\uff09\u7684\u76f4\u64ad\u955c\u5934\u524d\uff0cShah\u76f4\u8a00\u4e0d\u8bb3\u5730\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u5176\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8fd9\u5bb6\u91c7\u7528\u591a\u7a7a\u7b56\u7565\uff08Long\/Short strategy\uff09\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u201c\u9488\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u88abAI\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u65e7\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u5934\u5bf8\uff08Short positions\uff09\u201d\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1Citrini\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u539f\u6587\u4e2d\u5e76\u672a\u62ab\u9732\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u58f0\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u516c\u5f00\u58f0\u660e\u7acb\u523b\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6838\u7206\u822c\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u4e0e\u8b66\u89c9\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1Shah\u5728\u968f\u540e\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u6781\u529b\u8fa9\u89e3\uff0c\u79f0\u57fa\u91d1\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5728\u505a\u591a\u5176\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u677f\u5757\uff0c\u4e14\u53d1\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u521d\u8877\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u547c\u5401\u5168\u793e\u4f1a\u4e25\u8083\u5173\u6ce8AI\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5b8f\u89c2\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u5e76\u5021\u5bfc\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9AI\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u5f81\u6536\u66b4\u5229\u7a0e\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u793e\u4f1a\u8fd0\u8f6c\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6781\u5176\u654f\u611f\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u52a8\u673a\u65e0\u7591\u5e26\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u5bfc\u5411\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u90e8\u5206\u72ec\u7acb\u91d1\u878d\u8c03\u67e5\u535a\u5ba2\uff08\u5982\u201cNot Your Typical Finance Bro\u201d\uff09\u751a\u81f3\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06Lotus\u4e0eCitrini\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u540c\u6b64\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SEC\uff09\u9488\u5bf9Anson Funds\u672a\u62ab\u9732\u505a\u7a7a\u534f\u540c\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u7684\u6267\u6cd5\u884c\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76ee\u524d\u5e76\u65e0\u786e\u51ff\u8bc1\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u53cc\u65b9\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u6cd5\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u5206\u6210\u534f\u8bae\u3002\u4f46\u65e0\u53ef\u8fa9\u9a73\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\uff1aAlap Shah\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u524dAI\u4f01\u4e1a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u3001\u73b0\u4efb\u79d1\u6280\u9898\u6750\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u64cd\u76d8\u624b\uff0c\u4ed6\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e00\u65e6\u53d1\u9175\uff0c\u5c06\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u7684SaaS\u6216\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5e73\u53f0\u80a1\u7968\u9020\u6210\u4f55\u7b49\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u201c\u53d9\u4e8b\u505a\u7a7a\u653b\u51fb\u201d\uff08Narrative short-selling attack\uff09\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u548c\u201c\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\uff08\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7406\u8bba\uff09\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u4e00\u7bc7\u6ce8\u660e\u662f\u201c\u5047\u60f3\u63a8\u6f14\u201d\u7684\u6c11\u95f4\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u8f7b\u6613\u64bc\u52a8\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\uff1f\u6838\u5fc3\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u6781\u5176\u7cbe\u51c6\u5730\u628a\u8109\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u6df1\u5904\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u6050\u60e7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u81ea2023\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u957f\u8fbe\u4e09\u5e74\u534a\u3001\u51e0\u4e4e\u6beb\u65e0\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u9488\u5bf9AI\u4e3b\u7ebf\u7684\u72c2\u70ed\u7092\u4f5c\u540e\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u548c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u5904\u4e0d\u80dc\u5bd2\u7684\u5371\u9669\u5883\u5730\uff08\u6b63\u5982\u62a5\u544a\u6240\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u6807\u666e500\u54118000\u70b9\u51b2\u523a\u65f6\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u7e41\u8363\uff09\u3002Shah\u5728\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8fb9\u9645\u589e\u91cf\u4e70\u5bb6\u4e86\u201d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u795e\u7ecf\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7d27\u7ef7\u3001\u6781\u5ea6\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5177\u6709\u4e25\u5bc6\u903b\u8f91\u652f\u6491\u3001\u8f85\u4ee5\u8be6\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u63a8\u6f14\u7684\u91cd\u78c5\u5229\u7a7a\u53d9\u4e8b\uff0c\u90fd\u6781\u6613\u6210\u4e3a\u523a\u7834\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6839\u5c16\u9510\u7684\u7a3b\u8349\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u8d44\u6df1\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u6790\u5e08Neil Wilson\u4e00\u9488\u89c1\u8840\u7684\u70b9\u8bc4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u7eaf\u7cb9\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u672b\u65e5\u8272\u60c5\u7247\uff08Doomsday porn\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6563\u6237\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5a92\u4f53\u603b\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u5176\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u4e50\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u201d\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u81f4\u547d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u548c\u652f\u4ed8\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u7528\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4f18\u5f02\u8d22\u62a5\u6765\u201c\u81ea\u8bc1\u6e05\u767d\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u98a0\u8986\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u6bc1\u706d\u7684\u5de8\u6d6a\u5c06\u5728\u51e0\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u672a\u6765\u51c6\u65f6\u62b5\u8fbe\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u672a\u77e5\u6df1\u6e0a\u7684\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u5f15\u53d1\u8e29\u8e0f\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u6e90\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"toc-9\">\u7ed3\u8bed\uff1a\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u822a\u5411\u2014\u2014\u6218\u7565\u542f\u793a\u4e0e\u8de8\u5468\u671f\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u5efa\u8bae<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Citrini Research\u7684\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u7528\u6765\u7cbe\u51c6\u62e9\u65f6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6307\u5357\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u7f6e\u4e8e\u6781\u7aef\u53d8\u91cf\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ee5Citadel\u4e3a\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e3b\u6d41\u673a\u6784\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u5730\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u8d44\u6e90\u7269\u7406\u74f6\u9888\u3001\u6280\u672f\u4e92\u8865\u6027\u672c\u8d28\u4ee5\u53ca\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\uff08\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba\uff09\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u786c\u4f24\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u7bc7\u5145\u6ee1\u8d5b\u535a\u670b\u514b\u8272\u5f69\u7684\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u5374\u6781\u5176\u654f\u9510\u5730\u6311\u7834\u4e86\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AGI\uff09\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u75db\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u201c\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u66fe\u7ecf\u6700\u4e3a\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8981\u7d20\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u5176\u5ec9\u4ef7\u4e14\u4e30\u9976\u65f6\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u91cd\u4f30\u4e0e\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u518d\u5206\u914d\u5c06\u5f02\u5e38\u6b8b\u9177\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6df1\u5904\u4e8e\u8fd9\u80a1\u4eba\u7c7b\u5386\u53f2\u7ea7\u522b\u79d1\u6280\u6d2a\u6d41\u4e2d\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u8de8\u56fd\u51fa\u6d77\u4f01\u4e1a\u9ad8\u7ba1\u4ee5\u53ca\u6218\u7565\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5265\u79bb\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u6027\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u8403\u53d6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u6781\u5177\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u6218\u7565\u542f\u793a\uff0c\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u89e3\u6784\u4e0e\u6b63\u53cd\u65b9\u8fa9\u8bc1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u70bc\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6838\u5fc3\u6d1e\u5bdf\u4e0e\u884c\u52a8\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. 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Data\uff09\u4e0e\u96be\u4ee5\u590d\u5236\u7684\u7ebf\u4e0b\u4ea7\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\uff08Industry Know-how\uff09\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u88ab\u8bc1\u4f2a\u7684\u65e7\u6709\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5de8\u5934\uff0c\u5e94\u5f53\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5f39\u671f\u575a\u51b3\u524a\u51cf\u76f8\u5173\u5934\u5bf8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. 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class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. 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