{"id":11808,"date":"2026-03-30T12:46:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11808"},"modified":"2026-03-30T12:46:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T04:46:50","slug":"%e7%81%ab%e7%88%86%e5%85%a8%e7%bd%91%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8a2028%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e3%80%8b%e5%85%a8%e6%96%87%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%86%ef%bc%81%e4%b8%ad%e8%8b%b1%e5%af%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11808","title":{"rendered":"\u706b\u7206\u5168\u7f51\u7684\u300a2028\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u300b\u5168\u6587\u6765\u4e86\uff01\u4e2d\u82f1\u5bf9\u7167\u7248\uff0c\u5148\u6536\u85cf\uff0c\u6162\u6162\u770b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aCitrini\uff0c Alap Shah<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1akimi-k2.5\uff0cgemini 3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f16\u8f91&\u6821\u5bf9\uff1a\u6c90\u6d12<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Preface \u5e8f\u8a00<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

What if our AI bullishness continues to be right\u2026and what if that\u2019s actually bearish?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9AI\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u770b\u6cd5\u6301\u7eed\u6210\u771f\u2026\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5229\u7a7a\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a scenario, not a prediction.This isn\u2019t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that\u2019s been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this part, and he\u2019s written two others you can find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u7a7a\u5934\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u672b\u65e5\u723d\u6587\u201d\uff0c\u4ea6\u975e AI \u5d29\u6e83\u8bba\u8005\u7684\u81c6\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u6587\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u672a\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u573a\u666f\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u670b\u53cb Alap Shah \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\u5934\u8111\u98ce\u66b4\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5199\u4e86\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u5199\u4e86\u53e6\u5916\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5e0c\u671b\u9605\u8bfb\u672c\u6587\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5e94\u5bf9 AI \u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u602a\u5f02\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5de6\u4fa7\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the CitriniResearch<\/a> Macro Memo from June 2028, detailing the progression and fallout of the Global Intelligence Crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u662f CitriniResearch 2028 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u667a\u80fd\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. Macro Memo \u5b8f\u89c2\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

2.1 The Consequences of Abundant Intelligence | \u667a\u529b\u8fc7\u5269\u7684\u540e\u679c<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

CitriniResearch<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 22nd, 2026June 30th, 2028<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708 22 \u65e52028 \u5e74 6 \u6708 30 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unemployment rate printed 10.2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% on the number, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eca\u65e9\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e3a 10.2%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9884\u671f 0.3 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u4e0b\u8dcc 2%\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u81ea2026\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u4ee5\u6765\u7d2f\u8ba1\u56de\u64a438%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders have grown numb. Six months ago, a print like this would have triggered a circuit breaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ebb\u6728\u4e86\u3002\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4f1a\u89e6\u53d1\u7194\u65ad\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two years.That\u2019s all it took to get from \u201ccontained\u201d and \u201csector-specific\u201d to an economy that no longer resembles the one any of us grew up in. This quarter\u2019s macro memo is our attempt to reconstruct the sequence – a post-mortem on the pre-crisis economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e24\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u201c\u53d7\u63a7\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\u201d\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u6210\u957f\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6240\u719f\u6089\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u672c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u91cd\u6784\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\u2014\u2014\u5bf9\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u590d\u76d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The euphoria was palpable. By October 2026, the S&P 500 flirted with 8000, the Nasdaq broke above 30k. The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to. Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied. Record-setting corporate profits were funneled right back into AI compute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u72c2\u70ed\u4e4b\u60c5\uff0c\u6ea2\u4e8e\u8a00\u8868\u3002\u5230 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708\uff0c\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u76f4\u6307 8000 \u70b9\u5927\u5173\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u7a81\u7834 30,000 \u70b9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u8fc7\u65f6\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u88c1\u5458\u59cb\u4e8e 2026 \u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u800c\u88c1\u5458\u6070\u597d\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u8d85\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u76f4\u63a5\u56de\u6d41\u5230 AI \u8ba1\u7b97<\/a>\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The headline numbers were still great. Nominal GDP repeatedly printed mid-to-high single-digit annualized growth. Productivity was booming. Real output per hour rose at rates not seen since the 1950s, driven by AI agents that don\u2019t sleep, take sick days or require health insurance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u603b\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u540d\u4e49 GDP \u6301\u7eed\u4ee5\u4e2d\u9ad8\u4e2a\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\u7387\u589e\u957f\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u84ec\u52c3\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u5b9e\u9645\u4ea7\u51fa\u4ee5 1950 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u672a\u89c1\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u7761\u89c9\u3001\u4e0d\u8bf7\u75c5\u5047\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u9669\u7684 AI agents\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The owners of compute saw their wealth explode as labor costs vanished. Meanwhile, real wage growth collapsed. Despite the administration\u2019s repeated boasts of record productivity, white-collar workers lost jobs to machines and were forced into lower-paying roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u6240\u6709\u8005\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u968f\u7740\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6d88\u5931\u800c\u7206\u70b8\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u5e9c\u4e00\u518d\u5439\u5618\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\uff0c\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u88ab\u673a\u5668\u593a\u8d70\u4e86\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u63a5\u53d7\u85aa\u8d44\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u5c97\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pundits popularized the phrase \u201cGhost GDP\u201d: output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u88c2\u75d5\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u666e\u53ca\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\u201c\u5e7d\u7075GDP<\/a> (\u865a\u4ea7\u503c)\u201d\uff1a\u5373\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d26\u6237\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u4f46\u4ece\u672a\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u6d41\u901a\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI.The only problem\u2026the economy was not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI \u5728\u5404\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c31\u662f AI\u3002\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u2026\u2026\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u662f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should have been clear all along that a single GPU cluster in North Dakota generating the output previously attributed to 10,000 white-collar workers in midtown Manhattan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea. The velocity of money flatlined. The human-centric consumer economy, 70% of GDP at the time, withered. We probably could have figured this out sooner if we just asked how much money machines spend on discretionary goods. (Hint: it\u2019s zero.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u5317\u8fbe\u79d1\u4ed6\u5dde\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a GPU \u96c6\u7fa4\u4ea7\u51fa\u4e86\u4e4b\u524d\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\u4e2d\u57ce 10,000 \u540d\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u761f\u75ab\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89e3\u836f\u3002\u8d27\u5e01\u6d41\u901a\u901f\u5ea6\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\u3002\u4ee5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff08\u5f53\u65f6\u5360 GDP \u7684 70%\uff09\u840e\u7f29\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u95ee\u4e00\u4e0b\u673a\u5668\u5728\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\u7684\u82b1\u8d39\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u65e9\u5c31\u5f04\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u3002\uff08\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff1a\u96f6\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI \u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u767d\u9886\u88c1\u5458\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u538b\u529b\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u589e\u52a0 AI \u6295\u8d44\uff0cAI \u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u5347\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake. Thehuman intelligence displacement spiral. White-collar workers saw their earnings power (and, rationally, their spending) structurally impaired. Their incomes were the bedrock of the $13 trillion mortgage market – forcing underwriters to reassess whether prime mortgages are still money good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u7136\u5236\u52a8\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u3002\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u7406\u6027\u5730\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6536\u5165\u662f 13 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u8feb\u4f7f\u627f\u9500\u5546\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f18\u8d28\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u662f\u5426\u4f9d\u7136\u201c\u8d44\u53ef\u62b5\u503a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seventeen years without a real default cycle had left privates bloated with PE-backed software deals that assumed ARR would remain recurring. The first wave of defaults due to AI disruption in mid-2027 challenged that assumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5341\u4e03\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u8ba9\u79c1\u52df\u57fa\u91d1\u652f\u6301\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u6ce1\u6cab\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u5047\u8bbe ARR\uff08\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u6536\u5165\uff09\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u30022027 \u5e74\u4e2d\u7531\u4e8e AI \u98a0\u8986\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6f6e\u6311\u6218\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would have been manageable if the disruption remained contained to software, but it didn\u2019t. By the end of 2027, it threatened every business model predicated on intermediation. Swaths of companies built on monetizing friction for humans disintegrated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u98a0\u8986\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u8f6f\u4ef6\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5230 2027 \u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5b83\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5927\u91cf\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u7c7b\u6469\u64e6\u83b7\u5229\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u89e3\u4f53\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system turned out to be one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth. The November 2027 crash only served to accelerate all of the negative feedback loops already in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u957f\u957f\u7684\u8fde\u73af\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e8e\u767d\u9886\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u589e\u957f\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u8d4c\u6ce8\u30022027 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u53ea\u662f\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve been waiting for \u201cbad news is good news\u201d for almost a year now. The government is starting to consider proposals, but public faith in the ability of the government to stage any sort of rescue has dwindled. Policy response has always lagged economic reality, but lack of a comprehensive plan is now threatening to accelerate a deflationary spiral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u5e74\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u201c\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u5c31\u662f\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u201d\u7684\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u59cb\u8003\u8651\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u516c\u4f17\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u6551\u63f4\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5df2\u7ecf\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u5e94\u603b\u662f\u6ede\u540e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f46\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5168\u9762\u8ba1\u5212\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5a01\u80c1\u7740\u52a0\u901f\u901a\u7f29\u87ba\u65cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

2.2 How It Started | \u4e00\u5207\u5982\u4f55\u5f00\u59cb<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In late 2025, agentic coding tools took a step function jump in capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2025 \u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u5316\uff08Agentic\uff09\u7f16\u7801\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u9636\u68af\u5f0f\u7684\u8de8\u8d8a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A competent developer working with Claude Code or Codex could now replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks. Not perfectly or with every edge case handled, but well enough that the CIO reviewing a $500k annual renewal started asking the question \u201cwhat if we just built this ourselves?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f7f\u7528 Claude Code \u6216 Codex \u7684\u79f0\u804c\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u590d\u5236\u4e2d\u7aef SaaS \u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u529f\u80fd\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u6216\u5904\u7406\u6240\u6709\u8fb9\u754c\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f46\u8db3\u591f\u597d\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5ba1\u67e5 50 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u5e74\u5ea6\u7eed\u8d39\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u4fe1\u606f\u5b98\u5f00\u59cb\u95ee\u201c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u5efa\u9020\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiscal years mostly line up with calendar years, so 2026 enterprise spend had been set in Q4 2025, when \u201cagentic AI\u201d was still a buzzword. The mid-year review was the first time procurement teams were making decisions with visibility into what these systems could actually do. Some watched their own internal teams spin up prototypes replicating six-figure SaaS contracts in weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8d22\u5e74\u5927\u591a\u4e0e\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 2026 \u5e74\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u652f\u51fa\u662f\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u201cagentic AI\u201d\u8fd8\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d41\u884c\u8bcd\u3002\u5e74\u4e2d\u5ba1\u67e5\u662f\u91c7\u8d2d\u56e2\u961f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u80fd\u591f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b9e\u9645\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u6765\u505a\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u770b\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u5185\u90e8\u56e2\u961f\u7528\u51e0\u5468\u65f6\u95f4\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u539f\u578b\uff0c\u590d\u5236\u4ef7\u503c\u516d\u4f4d\u6570\u7684 SaaS \u5408\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That summer, we spoke with a procurement manager at a Fortune 500. He told us about one of his budget negotiations. The salesperson had expected to run the same playbook as last year: a 5% annual price increase, the standard \u201cyour team depends on us\u201d pitch. The procurement manager told him he\u2019d been in conversations with OpenAI<\/a> about having their \u201cforward deployed engineers\u201d use AI tools to replace the vendor entirely. They renewed at a 30% discount. That was a good outcome, he said. The \u201clong-tail of SaaS\u201d, like, Zapier and Asana, had it much worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u90a3\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u4e00\u5bb6\u8d22\u5bcc 500 \u5f3a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4ea4\u8c08\u3002\u4ed6\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u9884\u7b97\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u9500\u552e\u4eba\u5458\u539f\u672c\u671f\u671b\u6309\u7167\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u5267\u672c\uff1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u6da8\u4ef7 5%\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u201c\u4f60\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u4f9d\u8d56\u6211\u4eec\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u8f9e\u3002\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e0e OpenAI \u8ba8\u8bba\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u201c\u524d\u6cbf\u90e8\u7f72\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u201d\u4f7f\u7528 AI \u5de5\u5177\u5b8c\u5168\u66ff\u4ee3\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5 30% \u7684\u6298\u6263\u7eed\u7b7e\u4e86\u5408\u540c\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u3001Zapier \u548c Asana \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u201cSaaS \u957f\u5c3e\u201d\u4f01\u4e1a\u60c5\u51b5\u8981\u7cdf\u7cd5\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors were prepared – expectant, even – that the long tail would be hit hard. They may have made up a third of spending for the typical enterprise stack, but they were obviously exposed. The systems of record, however, were supposed to be safe from disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u2014\u2014\u751a\u81f3\u671f\u5f85\u2014\u2014\u957f\u5c3e\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u521b\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5360\u5178\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u6280\u672f\u6808\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u663e\u7136\u5904\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u5e95\u5c42\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08Systems of Record\uff09\u672c\u5e94\u514d\u53d7\u98a0\u8986\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It wasn\u2019t until ServiceNow<\/a>\u2019s Q3 26 report that the mechanism of reflexivity became clearer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76f4\u5230 ServiceNow 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u673a\u5236\u624d\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

SERVICENOW NET NEW ACV GROWTH DECELERATES TO 14% FROM 23%; ANNOUNCES 15% WORKFORCE REDUCTION AND \u2018STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY PROGRAM\u2019; SHARES FALL 18% | Bloomberg, October 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ServiceNow \u51c0\u65b0 ACV \u589e\u957f\u4ece 23% \u51cf\u901f\u81f3 14%\uff1b\u5ba3\u5e03\u88c1\u5458 15% \u548c\u201c\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6548\u7387\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff1b\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc 18% | \u5f6d\u535a\u793e\uff0c2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

SaaS wasn\u2019t \u201cdead\u201d. There was still a cost-benefit-analysis to running and supporting in-house builds. But in-housewasan option, and that factored into pricing negotiations. Perhaps more importantly, the competitive landscape had changed. AI had made it easier to develop and ship new features, so differentiation collapsed. Incumbents were in a race to the bottom on pricing – a knife-fight with both each other and with the new crop of upstart challengers that popped up. Emboldened by the leap in agentic coding capabilities and with no legacy cost structure to protect, these aggressively took share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SaaS \u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u201d\u3002\u8fd0\u884c\u548c\u652f\u6301\u5185\u90e8\u6784\u5efa\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4f46\u5185\u90e8\u6784\u5efa\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7ade\u4e89\u683c\u5c40\u5df2\u7ecf\u6539\u53d8\u3002AI \u4f7f\u5f00\u53d1\u548c\u53d1\u5e03\u65b0\u529f\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5dee\u5f02\u5316\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u5728\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u9010\u5e95\u7ade\u4e89\u2014\u2014\u65e2\u5f7c\u6b64\u53ae\u6740\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0e\u65b0\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u6311\u6218\u8005\u8fdb\u884c\u8089\u640f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u8fdb\u5165\u8005\u56e0 agentic \u7f16\u7801\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u98de\u8dc3\u800c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5927\u589e\uff0c\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u9057\u7559\u6210\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5730\u593a\u53d6\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interconnected nature of these systems weren\u2019t fully appreciated until this print, either. ServiceNow sold seats. When Fortune 500 clients cut 15% of their workforce, they cancelled 15% of their licenses. The same AI-driven headcount reductions that were boosting margins at their customers were mechanically destroying their own revenue base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u8054\u6027\u76f4\u5230\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u624d\u88ab\u5145\u5206\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002ServiceNow \u6309\u5ea7\u4f4d\u6570\u9500\u552e\u3002\u5f53\u8d22\u5bcc 500 \u5f3a\u5ba2\u6237\u88c1\u5458 15% \u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86 15% \u7684\u8bb8\u53ef\u8bc1\u3002\u63a8\u52a8\u5ba2\u6237\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u7684 AI \u9a71\u52a8\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u673a\u68b0\u6027\u5730\u6467\u6bc1 ServiceNow \u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6536\u5165\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company that sold workflow automation was being disrupted by better workflow automation, and its response was to cut headcount and use the savings to fund the very technology disrupting it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u5bb6\u9500\u552e\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u98a0\u8986\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u53cd\u5e94\u662f\u88c1\u5458\u5e76\u7528\u8282\u7701\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u8d44\u52a9\u6b63\u5728\u98a0\u8986\u5b83\u7684\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What else were they supposed to do?Sit still and die slower?The companies most threatened by AI became AI\u2019s most aggressive adopters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u80fd\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5750\u4ee5\u5f85\u6bd9\uff1f\u53d7 AI \u5a01\u80c1\u6700\u5927\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86 AI \u6700\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u91c7\u7528\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This sounds obvious in hindsight, but it really wasn\u2019t at the time (at least to me). The historical disruption model said incumbents resist new technology, they lose share to nimble entrants and die slowly. That\u2019s what happened to Kodak, to Blockbuster, to BlackBerry. What happened in 2026 was different; the incumbents didn\u2019t resist because they couldn\u2019t afford to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8b\u540e\u770b\u6765\u8fd9\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u65f6\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff08\u81f3\u5c11\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff09\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u6a21\u578b\u8bf4\u73b0\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u62b5\u5236\u65b0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u8f93\u7ed9\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u8fdb\u5165\u8005\u5e76\u6162\u6162\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002Kodak\u3001Blockbuster\u3001BlackBerry \u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u30022026 \u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u540c\uff1b\u73b0\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u6ca1\u6709\u62b5\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e0d\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With stocks down 40-60% and boards demanding answers, the AI-threatened companies did the only thing they could. Cut headcount, redeploy the savings into AI tools, use those tools to maintain output with lower costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc 40-60%\uff0c\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u8981\u6c42\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u53d7 AI \u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u53ea\u80fd\u505a\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u5c06\u8282\u7701\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u91cd\u65b0\u6295\u5165 AI \u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u4ee5\u66f4\u4f4e\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7ef4\u6301\u4ea7\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each company\u2019s individual response was rational. The collective result was catastrophic. Every dollar saved on headcount flowed into AI capability that made the next round of job cuts possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6bcf\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u53cd\u5e94\u90fd\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\u3002\u96c6\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u3002\u88c1\u5458\u8282\u7701\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u90fd\u6d41\u5165\u4e86 AI \u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u88c1\u5458\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Software was only the opening act.What investors missed while they debated whether SaaS multiples had bottomed was that the reflexive loop had already escaped the software sector. The same logic that justified ServiceNow cutting headcount applied to every company with a white-collar cost structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8f6f\u4ef6\u53ea\u662f\u5f00\u573a\u8868\u6f14\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4eec\u5728\u4e89\u8bba SaaS \u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u662f\u5426\u89e6\u5e95\u65f6\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u5df2\u7ecf\u9003\u79bb\u4e86\u8f6f\u4ef6\u884c\u4e1a\u3002\u8bc1\u660e ServiceNow \u88c1\u5458\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u540c\u6837\u903b\u8f91\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u767d\u9886\u6210\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2.3 When Friction Went to Zero | \u5f53\u6469\u64e6\u5f52\u96f6<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

By early 2027, LLM usage had become default. People were using AI agents who didn\u2019t even know what an AI agent was, in the same way people who never learned what \u201ccloud computing\u201d was used streaming services. They thought of it the same way they thought of autocomplete or spell-check – a thing their phone just did now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qwen\u2019s open-source agentic shopper was the catalyst for AI handling consumer decisions. Within weeks, every major AI assistant had integrated some agentic commerce feature. Distilled models meant these agents could run on phones and laptops, not just cloud instances, reducing the marginal cost of inference significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The part that should have unsettled investors more than it did was that these agents didn\u2019t wait to be asked. They ran in the background according to the user\u2019s preferences. Commerce stopped being a series of discrete human decisions and became a continuous optimization process, running 24\/7 on behalf of every connected consumer. By March 2027, the median individual in the United States was consuming 400,000 tokens per day – 10x since the end of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u5e94\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b agents \u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u88ab\u8be2\u95ee\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u7528\u6237\u504f\u597d\u5728\u540e\u53f0\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u5546\u4e1a\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4f18\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8054\u7f51\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5168\u5929\u5019\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u5230 2027 \u5e74 3 \u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u5747\u6bcf\u5929\u6d88\u8d39 40 \u4e07\u4e2a token\u2014\u2014\u81ea 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\u589e\u957f\u4e86 10 \u500d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next link in the chain was already breaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Intermediation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u94fe\u6761\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u73af\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u65ad\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u4ecb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past fifty years, the U. S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u79df\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6\u5c42\uff1a\u4e8b\u60c5\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8010\u5fc3\u4f1a\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u54c1\u724c\u719f\u6089\u5ea6\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e86\u5c3d\u804c\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u63a5\u53d7\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u66f4\u591a\u70b9\u51fb\u3002\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9650\u5236\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It started out simple enough. Agents removed friction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\u3002Agents \u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u6469\u64e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subscriptions and memberships that passively renewed despite months of disuse. Introductory pricing that sneakily doubled after the trial period. Each one was rebranded as a hostage situation that agents could negotiate. The average customer lifetime value, the metric the entire subscription economy was built on, distinctly declined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6570\u6708\u672a\u4f7f\u7528\u4ecd\u88ab\u52a8\u7eed\u8ba2\u7684\u8ba2\u9605\u548c\u4f1a\u5458\u8d44\u683c\u3002\u8bd5\u7528\u671f\u540e\u5077\u5077\u6da8\u4ef7\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u6027\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u52d2\u7d22\u5f0f\u201d\u8ba2\u9605\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u8ba2\u9605\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d56\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u7ec8\u8eab\u4ef7\u503c\u6307\u6807\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumer agents began to change how nearly all consumer transactions worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6d88\u8d39\u8005 agents \u5f00\u59cb\u6539\u53d8\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humans don\u2019t really have the time to price-match across five competing platforms before buying a box of protein bars. Machines do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u76d2\u86cb\u767d\u68d2\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u6ca1\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5728\u4e94\u4e2a\u7ade\u4e89\u5e73\u53f0\u4e4b\u95f4\u6bd4\u4ef7\u3002\u673a\u5668\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Travel booking platforms were an early casualty, because they were the simplest. By Q4 2026, our agents could assemble a complete itinerary (flights, hotels, ground transport, loyalty optimization, budget constraints, refunds) faster and cheaper than any platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65c5\u6e38\u9884\u8ba2\u5e73\u53f0\u662f\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u727a\u7272\u54c1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u5230 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684 agents \u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u5e73\u53f0\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u5730\u7ec4\u88c5\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u884c\u7a0b\uff08\u822a\u73ed\u3001\u9152\u5e97\u3001\u5730\u9762\u4ea4\u901a\u3001\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u3001\u9884\u7b97\u9650\u5236\u3001\u9000\u6b3e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance renewals, where the entire renewal model depended on policyholder inertia, were reformed. Agents that re-shop your coverage annually dismantled the 15-20% of premiums that insurers earned from passive renewals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6574\u4e2a\u7eed\u4fdd\u6a21\u5f0f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u4fdd\u5355\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u60f0\u6027\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u7eed\u4fdd\u88ab\u6539\u9769\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u91cd\u65b0\u8d2d\u4e70\u4fdd\u9669\u7684 agents \u74e6\u89e3\u4e86\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u4ece\u88ab\u52a8\u7eed\u4fdd\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684 15-20% \u7684\u4fdd\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial advice. Tax prep. Routine legal work. Any category where the service provider\u2019s value proposition was ultimately \u201cI will navigate complexity that you find tedious\u201d was disrupted, as the agents found nothing tedious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8d22\u52a1\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u7a0e\u52a1\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5e38\u89c4\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u670d\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u5546\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u5f20\u6700\u7ec8\u662f\u201c\u6211\u4f1a\u5e2e\u4f60\u5904\u7406\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u7e41\u7410\u7684\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u201d\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\u90fd\u88ab\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a agents \u4e0d\u89c9\u5f97\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u7e41\u7410\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even places we thought insulated by the value of human relationships proved fragile. Real estate, where buyers had tolerated 5-6% commissions for decades because of information asymmetry between agent and consumer, crumbled once AI agents equipped with MLS access and decades of transaction data could replicate the knowledge base instantly. A sell-side piece from March 2027 titled it \u201cagent on agent violence\u201d. The median buy-side commission in major metros had compressed from 2.5-3% to under 1%, and a growing share of transactions were closing with no human agent on the buy side at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u56e0\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4ef7\u503c\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u4fdd\u62a4\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u4e5f\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u3002\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e70\u5bb6\u56e0\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u800c\u5bb9\u5fcd 5-6% \u7684\u4f63\u91d1\u6570\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u914d\u5907 MLS\uff08\u591a\u91cd\u4e0a\u5e02\u670d\u52a1\uff09\u8bbf\u95ee\u6743\u9650\u548c\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u4ea4\u6613\u6570\u636e\u7684 AI agents \u80fd\u591f\u5373\u65f6\u590d\u5236\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e93\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u5c31\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\u30022027 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5356\u65b9\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u5176\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540c\u7c7b\u76f8\u98df\u201d\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u5927\u90fd\u5e02\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u4e70\u65b9\u4f63\u91d1\u4ece 2.5-3% \u538b\u7f29\u5230 1% \u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e70\u65b9\u4ee3\u7406\u5c31\u6210\u4ea4\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We had overestimated the value of \u201chuman relationships\u201d. Turns out that a lot of what people called relationships was simply friction with a friendly face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u201c\u4eba\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u201d\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u5173\u7cfb\u53ea\u662f\u5e26\u6709\u53cb\u597d\u9762\u5b54\u7684\u6469\u64e6\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u963b\u788d\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was just the start of the disruption for the intermediation layer. Successful companies had spent billions to effectively exploit quirks of consumer behavior and human psychology that didn\u2019t matter anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e2d\u4ecb\u5c42\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u6210\u529f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u66fe\u7ecf\u82b1\u8d39\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6709\u6548\u5229\u7528\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u602a\u7656\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u518d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Machines optimizing for price and fit do not care about your favorite app or the websites you\u2019ve been habitually opening for the last four years, nor feel the pull of a well-designed checkout experience. They don\u2019t get tired and accept the easiest option or default to \u201cI always just order from here\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That destroyed a particular kind of moat:habitual intermediation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\uff1a\u60ef\u6027\u4e2d\u4ecb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DoorDash (DASH US) was the poster child.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DoorDash\uff08DASH US\uff09\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coding agents had collapsed the barrier to entry for launching a delivery app. A competent developer could deploy a functional competitor in weeks, and dozens did, enticing drivers away from DoorDash and Uber Eats by passing 90-95% of the delivery fee through to the driver. Multi-app dashboards let gig workers track incoming jobs from twenty or thirty platforms at once, eliminating the lock-in that the incumbents depended on. The market fragmented overnight and margins compressed to nearly nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f16\u7801 agents \u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u63a8\u51fa\u914d\u9001\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u8fdb\u5165\u95e8\u69db\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u79f0\u804c\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u90e8\u7f72\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u6570\u5341\u4eba\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4e86\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06 90-95% \u7684\u914d\u9001\u8d39\u4f20\u9012\u7ed9\u53f8\u673a\u6765\u5438\u5f15\u53f8\u673a\u79bb\u5f00 DoorDash \u548c Uber Eats\u3002\u591a\u5e94\u7528\u4eea\u8868\u677f\u8ba9\u96f6\u5de5\u5de5\u4eba\u540c\u65f6\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6765\u81ea\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u7684 incoming \u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u73b0\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u9501\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u591c\u4e4b\u95f4\u788e\u7247\u5316\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u538b\u7f29\u5230\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agents accelerated both sides of the destruction. They enabled the competitors and then they used them. The DoorDash moat was literally \u201cyou\u2019re hungry, you\u2019re lazy, this is the app on your home screen.\u201d An agent doesn\u2019t have a home screen. It checks DoorDash, Uber Eats, the restaurant\u2019s own site, and twenty new vibe-coded alternatives so it can pick the lowest fee and fastest delivery every time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Habitual app loyalty, the entire basis of the business model, simply didn\u2019t exist for a machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\u6765\u8bf4\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was oddly poetic, as perhaps the only example in this entire saga of agents doing a favor for the soon-to-be-displaced white collar workers. When they ended up as delivery drivers, at least half their earnings weren\u2019t going to Uber and DoorDash. Of course, this favor from technology didn\u2019t last for long as autonomous vehicles proliferated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u51fa\u5947\u5730\u8bd7\u610f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u4f20\u5947\u4e2d agents \u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u88ab\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u4e3a\u9001\u8d27\u53f8\u673a\u65f6\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6d41\u5411 Uber \u548c DoorDash\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u6c7d\u8f66\u7684\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6765\u81ea\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6069\u60e0\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once agents controlled the transaction, they went looking for bigger paperclips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u65e6 agents \u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u53bb\u5bfb\u627e\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u56de\u5f62\u9488\uff08\u4f18\u5316\u76ee\u6807\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was only so much price-matching and aggregating to do. The biggest way to repeatedly save the user money (especially when agents started transacting among themselves) wasto eliminate http:\/\/fees.In<\/a> machine-to-machine commerce,the 2-3% card interchange rate became an obvious target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ef7\u683c\u5339\u914d\u548c\u805a\u5408\u53ea\u80fd\u505a\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u3002\u53cd\u590d\u4e3a\u7528\u6237\u8282\u7701\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u6700\u5927\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53 agents \u5f00\u59cb\u5f7c\u6b64\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\uff09\u662f\u6d88\u9664\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u5728\u673a\u5668\u5bf9\u673a\u5668\u5546\u4e1a\u4e2d\uff0c2-3% \u7684\u94f6\u884c\u5361\u4ea4\u6362\u8d39\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agents went looking for faster and cheaper options than cards. Most settled on using stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s, where settlement was near-instant and the transaction cost was measured in fractions of a penny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agents \u5bfb\u627e\u6bd4\u94f6\u884c\u5361\u66f4\u5feb\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u9009\u9879\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u9009\u62e9\u901a\u8fc7 Solana \u6216\u4ee5\u592a\u574a L2 \u4f7f\u7528 stablecoins\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u7ed3\u7b97\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u5373\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u6210\u672c\u4ee5\u51e0\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7f8e\u5206\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

MASTERCARD Q1 2027: NET REVENUES +6% Y\/Y; PURCHASE VOLUME GROWTH SLOWS TO +3.4% Y\/Y FROM +5.9% PRIOR QUARTER; MANAGEMENT NOTES \u201cAGENT-LED PRICE OPTIMIZATION\u201d AND \u201cPRESSURE IN DISCRETIONARY CATEGORIES\u201d | Bloomberg, April 29 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mastercard 2027 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff1a\u51c0\u6536\u5165\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f 6%\uff1b\u8d2d\u4e70\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684 5.9% \u653e\u7f13\u81f3 3.4%\uff1b\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u6307\u51fa\u201cagent \u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4f18\u5316\u201d\u548c\u201c\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u7c7b\u522b\u7684\u538b\u529b\u201d | \u5f6d\u535a\u793e\uff0c2027 \u5e74 4 \u6708 29 \u65e5<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Mastercard\u2019s Q1 2027 report was the point of no return. Agentic commerce went from being a product story to a plumbing story. MA dropped 9% the following day. Visa did too, but pared losses after analysts pointed out its stronger positioning in stablecoin infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mastercard 2027 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u65e0\u53ef\u633d\u56de\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002Agentic \u5546\u52a1\u4ece\u4ea7\u54c1\u8bbe\u8ba1\u6545\u4e8b\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6545\u4e8b\u3002MA \u6b21\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc 9%\u3002Visa \u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u5728 stablecoin \u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e2d\u7684\u66f4\u5f3a\u5b9a\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u8dcc\u5e45\u6536\u7a84\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Agentic commerce routing around interchange posed a far greater risk to card-focused banks and mono-line issuers, who collected the majority of that 2-3% fee and had built entire business segments around rewards programs funded by the merchant subsidy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agentic \u5546\u52a1\u7ed5\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6362\u8d39\u5bf9\u4ee5\u5361\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u5355\u7ebf\u53d1\u884c\u5546\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6536\u53d6\u4e86 2-3% \u8d39\u7528\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u56f4\u7ed5\u7531\u5546\u5bb6\u8865\u8d34\u8d44\u52a9\u7684\u5956\u52b1\u8ba1\u5212\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u4e1a\u52a1\u90e8\u95e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Express (AXP US) was hit hardest; a combined headwind from white-collar workforce reductions gutting its customer base and agents routing around interchange gutting its revenue model. Synchrony (SYF US), Capital One (COF US) and Discover (DFS US) all fell more than 10% over the following weeks, as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u901a\uff08AXP US\uff09\u53d7\u5230\u6700\u6c89\u91cd\u6253\u51fb\uff1b\u767d\u9886\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u51cf\u5c11\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u5ba2\u6237\u7fa4\uff0cagents \u7ed5\u8fc7\u4ea4\u6362\u8d39\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u6536\u5165\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u53cc\u91cd\u9006\u98ce\u540c\u65f6\u88ad\u6765\u3002Synchrony\uff08SYF US\uff09\u3001Capital One\uff08COF US\uff09\u548c Discover\uff08DFS US\uff09\u5728\u968f\u540e\u7684\u51e0\u5468\u4e5f\u90fd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u8fc7 10%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their moats were made of friction. Andfriction was going to zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u62a4\u57ce\u6cb3\u7531\u6469\u64e6\u6784\u6210\u3002\u800c\u6469\u64e6\u6b63\u5728\u5f52\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2.4 From Sector Risk to Systemic Risk | \u4ece\u884c\u4e1a\u98ce\u9669\u5230\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Through 2026, markets treated negative AI impact as a sector story. Software and consulting were getting crushed, payments and other toll booths were wobbly, but the broader economy seemed fine. The labor market, while softening, was not in freefall. The consensus view was that creative destruction was part of any technological innovation cycle. It would be painful in pockets, but the overall net positives from AI would outweigh any negatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6574\u4e2a 2026 \u5e74\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06 AI \u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u89c6\u4e3a\u884c\u4e1a\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u8f6f\u4ef6\u548c\u54a8\u8be2\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u521b\uff0c\u652f\u4ed8\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6536\u8d39\u7ad9\u6447\u6447\u6b32\u5760\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd8\u597d\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u867d\u7136\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u672a\u81ea\u7531\u843d\u4f53\u3002\u5171\u8bc6\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7834\u574f\u662f\u4efb\u4f55\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u5468\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u4f1a\u5f88\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u4f46 AI \u7684\u6574\u4f53\u51c0\u6b63\u9762\u6548\u5e94\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7\u4efb\u4f55\u8d1f\u9762\u6548\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our January 2027 macro memo argued this was the wrong mental model. The US economy is a white-collar services economy. White-collar workers represented 50% of employment and drove roughly 75% of discretionary consumer spending. The businesses and jobs that AI was chewing up were not tangential to the US economy, they were the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec 2027 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u5fc3\u667a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u767d\u9886\u670d\u52a1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u5360\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684 50%\uff0c\u9a71\u52a8\u7ea6 75% \u7684\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u3002AI \u6b63\u5728\u5543\u566c\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e76\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTechnological innovation destroys jobs and then creates even more\u201d. This was the most popular and convincing counter-argument at the time. It was popular and convincing because it\u2019d been right for two centuries. Even if we couldn\u2019t conceive of what the future jobs would be, they would surely arrive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u6467\u6bc1\u5de5\u4f5c\u7136\u540e\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u5de5\u4f5c\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u6700\u6d41\u884c\u548c\u6700\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u9a73\u8bba\u70b9\u3002\u5b83\u6d41\u884c\u4e14\u6709\u8bf4\u670d\u529b\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u5b83\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bbe\u60f3\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5230\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATMs made branches cheaper to operate so banks opened more of them and teller employment rose for the next twenty years. The internet disrupted travel agencies, the Yellow Pages, brick-and-mortar retail, but it invented entirely new industries in their place that conjured new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATM \u4f7f\u5206\u884c\u8fd0\u8425\u6210\u672c\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u94f6\u884c\u5f00\u8bbe\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u5206\u884c\uff0c\u67dc\u5458\u5c31\u4e1a\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u65c5\u884c\u793e\u3001\u9ec4\u9875\u3001\u5b9e\u4f53\u5e97\u96f6\u552e\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5728\u539f\u5730\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every new job, however, required a human to perform it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4eba\u7c7b\u6765\u6267\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI is now a general intelligence that improves at the very tasks humans would redeploy to. Displaced coders cannot simply move to \u201cAI management\u201d because AI is already capable of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI \u73b0\u5728\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u901a\u7528\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u88ab\u53d6\u4ee3\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u5458\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8f6c\u5411\u201cAI \u7ba1\u7406\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a AI \u5df2\u7ecf\u80fd\u591f\u505a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, AI agents handle many-weeks-long research and development tasks. The exponential steamrolled our conceptions of what was possible, even though every year Wharton professors tried to fit the data to a new sigmoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eca\u5929\uff0cAI agents \u5904\u7406\u6570\u5468\u957f\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u78be\u788e\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u4e8e\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6bcf\u5e74\u6c83\u987f\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u6559\u6388\u4eec\u90fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u62df\u5408\u5230\u65b0\u7684 S \u66f2\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They write essentially all code. The highest performing of them are substantially smarter than almost all humans at almost all things. And they keep getting cheaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9e\u8d28\u4e0a\u7f16\u5199\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u4ee3\u7801\u3002\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684 agents \u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u90fd\u6bd4\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u806a\u660e\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AIhascreated new jobs. Prompt engineers. AI safety researchers. Infrastructure technicians. Humans are still in the loop, coordinating at the highest level or directing for taste. For every new role AI created, though, it rendered dozens obsolete. The new roles paid a fraction of what the old ones did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI\u786e\u5b9e\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002Prompt \u5de5\u7a0b\u5e08\u3002AI \u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6280\u672f\u5458\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u4ecd\u5728\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u8fdb\u884c\u534f\u8c03\u6216\u6307\u5bfc\u54c1\u5473\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cAI \u6bcf\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u5c31\u4f7f\u6570\u5341\u4e2a\u89d2\u8272\u8fc7\u65f6\u3002\u65b0\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u85aa\u6c34\u53ea\u662f\u65e7\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

U. S. JOLTS: JOB OPENINGS FALL BELOW 5.5M; UNEMPLOYED-TO-OPENINGS RATIO CLIMBS TO ~1.7, HIGHEST SINCE AUG 2020 | Bloomberg, Oct 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd JOLTS\uff1a\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u964d\u81f3 550 \u4e07\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff1b\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0e\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u6bd4\u6500\u5347\u81f3\u7ea6 1.7\uff0c\u4e3a 2020 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8 | \u5f6d\u535a\u793e\uff0c2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The hiring rate had been anemic all year, but October ’26 JOLTS print provided some definitive data. Job openings fell below 5.5 million, a 15% decline YoY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u62db\u8058\u7387\u5168\u5e74\u90fd\u5f88\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u4f46 2026 \u5e74 10 \u6708\u7684 JOLTS \u6570\u636e\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u964d\u81f3 550 \u4e07\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d 15%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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INDEED: POSTINGS FALL SHARPLY IN SOFTWARE, FINANCE, CONSULTING AS \u201cPRODUCTIVITY INITIATIVES\u201d SPREAD | Indeed Hiring Lab, Nov\u2013Dec 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u201c\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u8f6f\u4ef6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u54a8\u8be2\u9886\u57df\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\u53d1\u5e03\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d | Indeed \u62db\u8058\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c2026 \u5e74 11-12 \u6708<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

White-collar openings were collapsing while blue-collar openings remained relatively stable (construction, healthcare, trades). The churn was in the jobs that write memos(we are, somehow, still in business), approve budgets, and keep the middle layers of the economy \u6da6\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u767d\u9886\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u5728\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u800c\u84dd\u9886\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08\u5efa\u7b51\u3001\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065\u3001\u624b\u5de5\u4e1a\uff09\u3002\u6d41\u5931\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08\u4e0d\u77e5\u600e\u4e48\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u8425\u4e1a\uff09\u3001\u6279\u51c6\u9884\u7b97\u3001\u4fdd\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u5c42\u6da6\u6ed1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real wage growth in both cohorts, however, had been negative for the majority of the year and kept declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e24\u4e2a\u7fa4\u4f53\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u5168\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff0c\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The equity market still cared less about JOLTS than it did the news that all of GE Vernova\u2019s turbine capacity was now sold out until 2040, it ambled sideways in a tug of war between negative macro news with positive AI infrastructure headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9 JOLTS \u7684\u5173\u5fc3\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u5982\u5bf9 GE Vernova \u6240\u6709\u6da1\u8f6e\u673a\u4ea7\u80fd\u5df2\u552e\u7f44\u81f3 2040 \u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u8d1f\u9762\u5b8f\u89c2\u65b0\u95fb\u548c\u6b63\u9762 AI \u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u5934\u6761\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u62c9\u952f\u6218\u4e2d\u6a2a\u5411\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bond market (always smarter than equities, or at least less romantic) began pricing the consumption hit, however. The 10-year yield began a descent from 4.3% to 3.2% over the following four months. Still, the headline unemployment rate did not blow out, the composition nuance was still lost on some.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\uff08\u603b\u662f\u6bd4\u80a1\u7968\u66f4\u806a\u660e\uff0c\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6d6a\u6f2b\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u51b2\u51fb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u300210 \u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\u5f00\u59cb\u4ece 4.3% \u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 3.2%\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u603b\u4f53\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5e76\u672a\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u7ec6\u5fae\u5dee\u522b\u4ecd\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a normal recession, the cause eventually self-corrects. Overbuilding leads to a construction slowdown, which leads to lower rates, which leads to new construction. Inventory overshoot leads to destocking, which leads to restocking. The cyclical mechanism contains within it its own seeds of recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u81ea\u6211\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5efa\u8bbe\u5bfc\u81f4\u5efa\u7b51\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u65b0\u5efa\u8bbe\u3002\u5e93\u5b58\u8d85\u8c03\u5bfc\u81f4\u53bb\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u8865\u5e93\u5b58\u3002\u5468\u671f\u6027\u673a\u5236\u5185\u542b\u7740\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u79cd\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This cycle\u2019s cause was not cyclical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI got better and cheaper. Companies laid off workers, then used the savings to buy more AI capability, which let them lay off more workers. Displaced workers spent less. Companies that sell things to consumers sold fewer of them, weakened, and invested more in AI to protect margins. AI got better and cheaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI \u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u88c1\u5458\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u8282\u7701\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u8d2d\u4e70\u66f4\u591a AI \u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u88c1\u66f4\u591a\u5458\u5de5\u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u5411\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u9500\u552e\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5356\u5f97\u66f4\u5c11\uff0c\u5b9e\u529b\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u589e\u52a0 AI \u6295\u8d44\u4ee5\u4fdd\u62a4\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u3002AI \u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A feedback loop with no natural brake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u7136\u5236\u52a8\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The intuitive expectation was that falling aggregate demand would slow the AI buildout. It didn\u2019t, because this wasn\u2019t hyperscaler-style CapEx. It was OpEx substitution. A company that had been spending 5M on AI now spent 20M on AI. AI investment increased by multiples, but it occurred as a reduction in total operating costs. Every company\u2019s AI budget grew while its overall spending shrank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u76f4\u89c9\u9884\u671f\u662f\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u4f1a\u51cf\u7f13 AI \u5efa\u8bbe\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u98ce\u683c\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff08CapEx\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u8fd0\u8425\u652f\u51fa\uff08OpEx\uff09\u66ff\u4ee3\u3002\u4e00\u5bb6\u6bcf\u5e74\u5728\u5458\u5de5\u8eab\u4e0a\u82b1\u8d39 1 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u5728 AI \u4e0a\u82b1\u8d39 500 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5458\u5de5\u82b1\u8d39 7000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0cAI \u82b1\u8d39 2000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002AI \u6295\u8d44\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6570\u500d\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u603b\u8fd0\u8425\u6210\u672c\u7684\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u6bcf\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684 AI \u9884\u7b97\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u603b\u4f53\u652f\u51fa\u5374\u5728\u840e\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The irony of this was that the AI infrastructure complex kept performing even as the economy it was disrupting began deteriorating. NVDA was still posting record revenues. TSM was still running at 95%+ utilization. The hyperscalers were still spending $150-200 billion per quarter on data center capex. Economies that were purely convex to this trend, like Taiwan and Korea, outperformed massively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8bbd\u523a\u7684\u662f\uff0cAI \u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7efc\u5408\u4f53\u5728\u5176\u6b63\u5728\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u59cb\u6076\u5316\u65f6\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u8868\u73b0\u3002NVDA\uff08\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\uff09\u4ecd\u5728\u521b\u9020\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002TSM\uff08\u53f0\u79ef\u7535\uff09\u4ecd\u4ee5 95% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5229\u7528\u7387\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ecd\u5728\u6bcf\u5b63\u5ea6\u82b1\u8d39 1500-2000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u7eaf\u7cb9\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d8b\u52bf\u5448\u51f8\u6027\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5982\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8d62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India was the inverse. The country\u2019s IT services sector exported over $200 billion annually, the single largest contributor to India\u2019s current account surplus and the offset that financed its persistent goods trade deficit. The entire model was built on one value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. But the marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity. TCS, Infosys and Wipro saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027. The rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India\u2019s external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun \u201cpreliminary discussions\u201d with New Delhi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5370\u5ea6\u5219\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u8be5\u56fd IT \u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u51fa\u53e3\u8d85\u8fc7 2000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u662f\u5370\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u987a\u5dee\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5355\u4e00\u8d21\u732e\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u5176\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u63d0\u4f9b\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u5f20\u4e0a\uff1a\u5370\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ea\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u540c\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4f46 AI \u7f16\u7801 agent \u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6210\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5d29\u6e83\u5230\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u53ea\u662f\u7535\u529b\u6210\u672c\u3002TCS\u3001Infosys \u548c Wipro \u770b\u5230\u5408\u540c\u53d6\u6d88\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u5362\u6bd4\u5728\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c 18%\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u652f\u6491\u5370\u5ea6\u5916\u90e8\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u987a\u5dee\u84b8\u53d1\u3002\u5230 2028 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0cIMF \u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0e\u65b0\u5fb7\u91cc\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u521d\u6b65\u8ba8\u8bba\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The engine that caused the disruption got better every quarter, which meant the disruption accelerated every quarter. There was no natural floor to the labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9020\u6210\u98a0\u8986\u7684\u5f15\u64ce\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u90fd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u98a0\u8986\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u90fd\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6ca1\u6709\u81ea\u7136\u5e95\u90e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the US, we weren\u2019t asking about how the bubble would burst in AI infrastructure anymore. We were asking what happens to a consumer-credit economy when consumers are being replaced with machines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u95ee AI \u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6ce1\u6cab\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u7834\u88c2\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u95ee\u7684\u662f\u5f53\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u88ab\u673a\u5668\u66ff\u4ee3\u65f6\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u8d37\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2.5 The Intelligence Displacement Spiral | \u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

2027 was when the macroeconomic story stopped being subtle. The transmission mechanism from the previous twelve months of disjointed but clearly negative developments became obvious. You didn\u2019t need to go into the BLS data. Just attend a dinner party with friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2027 \u5e74\u662f\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6545\u4e8b\u4e0d\u518d\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002\u524d\u5341\u4e8c\u4e2a\u6708\u96f6\u6563\u4f46\u660e\u663e\u8d1f\u9762\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u673a\u5236\u53d8\u5f97\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76 BLS\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u5de5\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff09\u6570\u636e\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u53c2\u52a0\u670b\u53cb\u7684\u665a\u5bb4\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Displaced white-collar workers did not sit idle.They downshifted. Many took lower-paying service sector and gig economy jobs, which increased labor supply in those segments and compressed wages there too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u88ab\u53d6\u4ee3\u7684\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u95f2\u7740\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u964d\u6863\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u85aa\u6c34\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u548c\u96f6\u5de5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u4e5f\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u5de5\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A friend of ours was a senior product manager at Salesforce in 2025. Title, health insurance, 401k, 45,000. The point is less the individual story and more the second-order math. Multiply this dynamic by a few hundred thousand workers across every major metro. Overqualified labor flooding the service and gig economy pushed down wages for existing workers who were already struggling. Sector-specific disruption metastasized into economy-wide wage compression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u670b\u53cb 2025 \u5e74\u662f Salesforce \u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ecf\u7406\u3002\u5934\u8854\u3001\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u9669\u3001401k\u3001\u5e74\u85aa 18 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5979\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u8f6e\u88c1\u5458\u4e2d\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5bfb\u627e\uff0c\u5979\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3a Uber \u5f00\u8f66\u3002\u5979\u7684\u6536\u5165\u964d\u81f3 4.5 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u4e2a\u4eba\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u4e8c\u9636\u6570\u5b66\u3002\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u52a8\u6001\u4e58\u4ee5\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u90fd\u5e02\u7684\u6570\u5341\u4e07\u5de5\u4eba\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5408\u683c\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6d8c\u5165\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u548c\u96f6\u5de5\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u6323\u624e\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u3002\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6269\u6563\u4e3a\u5168\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u538b\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The pool of remaining human-centric had another correction ahead of it, happening while we write this. As autonomous delivery and self-driving vehicles work their way through the gig economy that absorbed the first wave of displaced workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5269\u4f59\u4ee5\u4eba\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6c60\u8fd8\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u53e6\u4e00\u6b21\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5199\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u65f6\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u81ea\u52a8\u914d\u9001\u548c\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u8f66\u8f86\u9010\u6b65\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u5438\u6536\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u5931\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u96f6\u5de5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By February 2027, it was clear that still employed professionals were spending like they might be next. They were working twice as hard (mostly with the help of AI) just to not get fired, hopes of promotion or raises were gone. Savings rates ticked higher and spending softened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5230 2027 \u5e74 2 \u6708\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u4ecd\u5728\u804c\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u82b1\u94b1\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u50cf\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u88c1\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5de5\u4f5c\u52a0\u500d\u52aa\u529b\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u5728 AI \u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\uff09\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e0d\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\uff0c\u664b\u5347\u6216\u52a0\u85aa\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u7834\u706d\u4e86\u3002\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most dangerous part was the lag. High earners used their higher-than-average savings to maintain the appearance of normalcy for two or three quarters. The hard data didn\u2019t confirm the problem until it was already old news in the real economy. Then came the print that broke the illusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6700\u5371\u9669\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u6ede\u540e\u3002\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u4ed6\u4eec\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u5728\u4e24\u4e09\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u8868\u8c61\u3002\u76f4\u5230\u8fd9\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8001\u65b0\u95fb\u65f6\uff0c\u786c\u6570\u636e\u624d\u8bc1\u5b9e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7136\u540e\u662f\u6253\u7834\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e7b\u89c9\u7684\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

U. S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS SURGE TO 487,000, HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2020; Department of Labor, Q3 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u4eba\u6570\u6fc0\u589e\u81f3 48.7 \u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a 2020 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\uff1b\u52b3\u5de5\u90e8\uff0c2027 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Initial claims surged to 487,000, the highest since April 2020. ADP and Equifax confirmed that the overwhelming majority of new filings were from white-collar professionals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u6fc0\u589e\u81f3 48.7 \u4e07\uff0c\u4e3a 2020 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u3002ADP \u548c Equifax \u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65b0\u7533\u8bf7\u6765\u81ea\u767d\u9886\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P dropped 6% over the following week. Negative macro started winning the tug of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6807\u666e 500 \u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u5468\u4e0b\u8dcc 6%\u3002\u8d1f\u9762\u5b8f\u89c2\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u62c9\u952f\u6218\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a normal recession, job losses are broadly distributed. Blue-collar and white-collar workers share the pain roughly in proportion to each segment\u2019s share of employment. The consumption hit is also broadly distributed, and it shows up quickly in the data because lower-income workers have higher marginal propensities to consume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u662f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u3002\u84dd\u9886\u548c\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4eba\u6309\u5404\u81ea\u5360\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5206\u62c5\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u51b2\u51fb\u4e5f\u662f\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5206\u5e03\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u5f88\u5feb\u5728\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5de5\u4eba\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u503e\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this cycle, the job losses have been concentrated in the upper deciles of the income distribution. They are a relatively small share of total employment, but they drive a wildly disproportionate share of consumer spending. The top 10% of earners account for more than 50% of all consumer spending in the United States. The top 20% account for roughly 65%. These are the people who buy the houses, the cars, the vacations, the restaurant meals, the private school tuition, the home renovations. They are the demand base for the entire consumer discretionary economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u7684\u4e0a\u5c42\u5341\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5360\u603b\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5c0f\u4efd\u989d\uff0c\u4f46\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u4efd\u989d\u3002\u6536\u5165\u6700\u9ad8\u7684 10% \u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u6240\u6709\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7684 50% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u6536\u5165\u6700\u9ad8\u7684 20% \u7ea6\u5360 65%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u8d2d\u4e70\u623f\u5c4b\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u5ea6\u5047\u3001\u9910\u5385\u7528\u9910\u3001\u79c1\u7acb\u5b66\u6821\u5b66\u8d39\u3001\u623f\u5c4b\u88c5\u4fee\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u6d88\u8d39\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When these workers lost their jobs, or took 50% pay cuts to move into available roles, the consumption hit was enormous relative to the number of jobs lost. A 2% decline in white-collar employment translated to something like a 3-4% hit to discretionary consumer spending. Unlike blue-collar job losses, which tend to hit immediately (you get laid off from the factory, you stop spending next week), white-collar job losses have a lagged but deeper impact because these workers have savings buffers that allow them to maintain spending for a few months before the behavioral shift kicks in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6216\u4e3a\u8fdb\u5165\u53ef\u7528\u5c97\u4f4d\u800c\u63a5\u53d7 50% \u7684\u51cf\u85aa\u65f6\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5931\u4e1a\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u51b2\u51fb\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3002\u767d\u9886\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0b\u964d 2% \u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7ea6 3-4% \u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u4e0e\u84dd\u9886\u5931\u4e1a\u4e0d\u540c\uff08\u4f60\u4ece\u5de5\u5382\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\uff0c\u4e0b\u5468\u5c31\u505c\u6b62\u6d88\u8d39\uff09\uff0c\u767d\u9886\u5931\u4e1a\u6709\u6ede\u540e\u4f46\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u4eba\u6709\u50a8\u84c4\u7f13\u51b2\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u8f6c\u53d8\u53d1\u751f\u524d\u7ef4\u6301\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Q2 2027, the economy was in recession. The NBER would not officially date the start until months later (they never do) but the data was unambiguous – we\u2019d had two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. But it wasn\u2019t a \u201cfinancial crisis\u201d\u2026yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5230 2027 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002NBER\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40\uff09\u76f4\u5230\u6570\u6708\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u6b63\u5f0f\u5ba3\u5e03\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u4e0d\u7acb\u5373\u5ba3\u5e03\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6570\u636e\u662f\u660e\u786e\u7684\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u5b9e\u9645 GDP \u8d1f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u201d\u2026\u2026\u81f3\u5c11\u73b0\u5728\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2.6 The Daisy Chain of Correlated Bets | \u76f8\u5173\u8d4c\u6ce8\u7684\u8fde\u73af\u8fde\u9501<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Private credit had grown from under 2.5 trillion by 2026. A meaningful share of that capital had been deployed into software and technology deals, many of them leveraged buyouts of SaaS companies at valuations that assumed mid-teens revenue growth in perpetuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u4ece 2015 \u5e74\u7684\u4e0d\u8db3 1 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u589e\u957f\u5230 2026 \u5e74\u7684\u8d85\u8fc7 2.5 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u88ab\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u8f6f\u4ef6\u548c\u6280\u672f\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u662f\u4ee5\u4f30\u503c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\u671f\u9752\u5c11\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6760\u6746\u6536\u8d2d SaaS \u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those assumptions died somewhere between the first agentic coding demo and the Q1 2026 software crash, but the marks didn\u2019t seem to realize they were dead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a agentic \u7f16\u7801\u6f14\u793a\u548c 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5d29\u76d8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4f46\u4f30\u503c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As many public SaaS companies traded to 5-8x EBITDA, PE-backed software companies sat on balance sheets at marks reflecting acquisition valuations on multiples of revenue that didn\u2019t exist anymore. Managers eased the marks down gradually, 100 cents, 92, 85, all while public comps said 50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0a\u5e02 SaaS \u516c\u53f8\u4ee5 5-8 \u500d EBITDA \u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\uff0cPE \u652f\u6301\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u6536\u8d2d\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u500d\u6570\u7559\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u500d\u6570\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4e86\u3002\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u9010\u6b65\u964d\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u6807\u8bb0\uff0c100 \u7f8e\u5206\u300192\u300185\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u6bd4\u8f83\u663e\u793a 50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

MOODY\u2019S DOWNGRADES $18B OF PE-BACKED SOFTWARE DEBT ACROSS 14 ISSUERS, CITING \u2018SECULAR REVENUE HEADWINDS FROM AI-DRIVEN COMPETITIVE DISRUPTION\u2019 | Moody\u2019s Investors Service, April 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7a46\u8fea\u4e0b\u8c03 14 \u5bb6\u53d1\u884c\u4eba\u7684 180 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143 PE \u652f\u6301\u8f6f\u4ef6\u503a\u52a1\u8bc4\u7ea7\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u4e3a\u201cAI \u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u98a0\u8986\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6536\u5165\u9006\u98ce\u201d | \u7a46\u8fea\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u670d\u52a1\uff0c2027 \u5e74 4 \u6708<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Everyone remembers what happened after the downgrade. Industry veterans had already seen the playbook following the 2015 energy downgrades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u8bb0\u5f97\u964d\u7ea7\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u884c\u4e1a\u8001\u624b\u5728 2015 \u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u964d\u7ea7\u540e\u5df2\u7ecf\u89c1\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u5267\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Software-backed loans began defaulting in Q3 2027. PE portfolio companies in information services and consulting followed. Several multi-billion dollar LBOs of well-known SaaS companies entered restructuring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8f6f\u4ef6\u652f\u6301\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u4fe1\u606f\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u54a8\u8be2\u9886\u57df\u7684 PE \u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u516c\u53f8\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u3002\u51e0\u5bb6\u4ef7\u503c\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u77e5\u540d SaaS \u516c\u53f8 LBO\uff08\u6760\u6746\u6536\u8d2d\uff09\u8fdb\u5165\u91cd\u7ec4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zendesk was the smoking gun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zendesk \u662f\u786e\u51ff\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

ZENDESK MISSES DEBT COVENANTS AS AI-DRIVEN CUSTOMER SERVICE AUTOMATION ERODES ARR; $5B DIRECT LENDING FACILITY MARKED TO 58 CENTS; LARGEST PRIVATE CREDIT SOFTWARE DEFAULT ON RECORD | Financial Times, September 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zendesk \u56e0 AI \u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u670d\u52a1\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u4fb5\u8680 ARR \u800c\u8fdd\u53cd\u503a\u52a1\u5951\u7ea6\uff1b50 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u76f4\u63a5\u8d37\u6b3e\u5de5\u5177\u6807\u8bb0\u4e3a 58 \u7f8e\u5206\uff1b\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u8f6f\u4ef6\u8fdd\u7ea6 | \u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\uff0c2027 \u5e74 9 \u6708<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, Hellman & Friedman and Permira had taken Zendesk private for 5 billion in direct lending, the largest ARR-backed facility in history at the time, led by Blackstone with Apollo, Blue Owl and HPS all in the lending group. The loan was explicitly structured around the assumption that Zendesk\u2019s annual recurring revenue would remain recurring. At roughly 25x EBITDA, the leverage only made sense if it did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 \u5e74\uff0cHellman & Friedman \u548c Permira \u4ee5 102 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06 Zendesk \u79c1\u6709\u5316\u3002\u503a\u52a1\u5305\u662f 50 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u76f4\u63a5\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684 ARR \u652f\u6301\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7531 Blackstone \u7275\u5934\uff0cApollo\u3001Blue Owl \u548c HPS \u90fd\u5728\u8d37\u6b3e\u96c6\u56e2\u4e2d\u3002\u8be5\u8d37\u6b3e\u660e\u786e\u56f4\u7ed5 Zendesk \u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u6536\u5165\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6784\u5efa\u3002\u7ea6 25 \u500d EBITDA \u7684\u6760\u6746\u7387\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u6210\u7acb\u65f6\u624d\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By mid-2027, it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5230 2027 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u6ca1\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI agents had been handling customer service autonomously for the better part of a year. The category Zendesk had defined (ticketing, routing, managing human support interactions) was already replaced by systems that resolved issues without generating a ticket at all. The Annualized Recurring Revenue the loan was underwritten against was no longer recurring, it was just revenue that hadn\u2019t left yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI agents \u5df2\u7ecf\u81ea\u4e3b\u5904\u7406\u5ba2\u6237\u670d\u52a1\u4e00\u5e74\u591a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u4e86\u3002Zendesk \u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\uff08\u7968\u52a1\u3001\u8def\u7531\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u5de5\u652f\u6301\u4ea4\u4e92\uff09\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u751f\u6210\u7968\u636e\u5c31\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u8d37\u6b3e\u627f\u4fdd\u6240\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u6536\u5165\u4e0d\u518d\u5177\u6709\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u5c1a\u672a\u79bb\u5f00\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The largest ARR-backed loan in history became the largest private credit software default in history. Every credit desk asked the same question at once: who else has a secular headwind disguised as a cyclical one?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684 ARR \u652f\u6301\u8d37\u6b3e\u6210\u4e3a\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u8f6f\u4ef6\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4fe1\u8d37\u90e8\u95e8\u540c\u65f6\u95ee\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u8fd8\u6709\u8c01\u6709\u4f2a\u88c5\u6210\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9006\u98ce\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s what the consensus got right, at least initially: this should have been survivable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u5171\u8bc6\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6700\u521d\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff1a\u8fd9\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private credit is not 2008 banking. The whole architecture was explicitly designed to avoid forced selling. These are closed-end vehicles with locked-up capital. LPs committed for seven to ten years. There are no depositors to run, no repo lines to pull. The managers could sit on impaired assets, work them out over time, and wait for recoveries. Painful, but manageable. The system was such that it was supposed to bend, not break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e0d\u662f 2008 \u5e74\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u67b6\u6784\u660e\u786e\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u907f\u514d\u5f3a\u5236\u51fa\u552e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u5c01\u95ed\u5f0f\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u88ab\u9501\u5b9a\u3002LP\uff08\u6709\u9650\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u4e03\u5230\u5341\u5e74\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5b58\u6b3e\u4eba\u53ef\u6324\u5151\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u56de\u8d2d\u7ebf\u53ef\u64a4\u3002\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u53d7\u635f\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u9010\u6b65\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u56de\u6536\u3002\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u63a7\u3002\u8be5\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3a\u5f2f\u66f2\u800c\u975e\u65ad\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Executives at Blackstone, KKR and Apollo cited software exposure of 7-13% of assets. Containable. Every sell-side note and fintwit credit account said the same thing: private credit has permanent capital. They could absorb losses that would otherwise blow up a levered bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blackstone\u3001KKR \u548c Apollo \u7684\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u8f6f\u4ef6\u655e\u53e3\u5360\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684 7-13%\u3002\u53ef\u63a7\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5356\u65b9\u7b14\u8bb0\u548c Fintwit \u4fe1\u8d37\u8d26\u6237\u90fd\u8bf4\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8bdd\uff1a\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u62e5\u6709\u6c38\u4e45\u8d44\u672c\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5438\u6536\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u8fd9\u4e9b\u635f\u5931\u4f1a\u6467\u6bc1\u6760\u6746\u94f6\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permanent capital.The phrase showed up in every earnings call and investor letter meant to reassure. It became a mantra. And like most mantras, nobody paid attention to the finer details. Here\u2019s what it actually meant\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the prior decade, the large alternative asset managers had acquired life insurance companies and turned them into funding vehicles. Apollo bought Athene. Brookfield bought American Equity. KKR took Global Atlantic. The logic was elegant: annuity deposits provided a stable, long-duration liability base. The managers invested those deposits into the private credit they originated and got paid twice, earning spread over on the insurance side and management fees on the asset management side. A fee-on-fee perpetual motion machine that worked beautifully under one condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u53e6\u7c7b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u6536\u8d2d\u4e86\u4eba\u5bff\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u5e76\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u878d\u8d44\u5de5\u5177\u3002Apollo \u6536\u8d2d\u4e86 Athene\u3002Brookfield \u6536\u8d2d\u4e86 American Equity\u3002KKR \u6536\u8d2d\u4e86 Global Atlantic\u3002\u903b\u8f91\u5f88\u4f18\u96c5\uff1a\u5e74\u91d1\u5b58\u6b3e\u63d0\u4f9b\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u957f\u671f\u9650\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b58\u6b3e\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e2d\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u53cc\u91cd\u62a5\u916c\uff0c\u5728\u4fdd\u9669\u65b9\u9762\u8d5a\u53d6\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u5728\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u9762\u8d5a\u53d6\u7ba1\u7406\u8d39\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u8d39\u53e0\u52a0\u7684\u6c38\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u8fd0\u4f5c\u826f\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The private credit had to be money good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The losses hit balance sheets built to hold illiquid assets against long-duration obligations. The \u201cpermanent capital\u201d that was supposed to make the system resilient was not some abstract pool of patient institutional money and sophisticated investors taking sophisticated risk. It was the savings of American households, \u201cMain Street\u201d, structured as annuities invested in the same PE-backed software and technology paper that was now defaulting. The locked-up capital that couldn\u2019t run was life insurance policyholder money, and the rules are a bit different there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u635f\u5931\u51fb\u4e2d\u4e86\u4e3a\u6301\u6709\u975e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8d44\u4ea7\u5bf9\u6297\u957f\u671f\u9650\u4e49\u52a1\u800c\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u3002\u672c\u5e94\u4f7f\u7cfb\u7edf\u5177\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u7684\u201c\u6c38\u4e45\u8d44\u672c\u201d\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u79cd\u62bd\u8c61\u7684\u8010\u5fc3\u673a\u6784\u8d44\u91d1\u6c60\u548c\u627f\u62c5\u590d\u6742\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u6210\u719f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u201c\u4e3b\u8857\u201d\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e74\u91d1\u5f62\u5f0f\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684 PE \u652f\u6301\u8f6f\u4ef6\u548c\u6280\u672f\u503a\u5238\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u6324\u5151\u7684\u9501\u5b9a\u8d44\u672c\u662f\u4eba\u5bff\u4fdd\u9669\u4fdd\u5355\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u6709\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compared to the banking system, insurance regulators had been docile – even complacent – but this was the wake-up call. Already uneasy about private credit concentrations at life insurers, they began downgrading the risk-based capital treatment of these assets. That forced the insurers to either raise capital or sell assets, neither of which was possible at attractive terms in a market already seizing up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0e\u94f6\u884c\u7cfb\u7edf\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4fdd\u9669\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4e00\u76f4\u6e29\u987a\u2014\u2014\u751a\u81f3\u81ea\u6ee1\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u949f\u3002\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u5bff\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u96c6\u4e2d\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u8c03\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u672c\u5904\u7406\u3002\u8fd9\u8feb\u4f7f\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u8981\u4e48\u7b79\u96c6\u8d44\u672c\u8981\u4e48\u51fa\u552e\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ee5\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

NEW YORK, IOWA STATE REGULATORS MOVE TO TIGHTEN CAPITAL TREATMENT FOR CERTAIN PRIVATELY RATED CREDIT HELD BY LIFE INSURERS; NAIC GUIDANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RBC FACTORS AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SVO SCRUTINY | Reuters, Nov 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ebd\u7ea6\u3001\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5dde\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u6536\u7d27\u5bf9\u5bff\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u6301\u6709\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u79c1\u4eba\u8bc4\u7ea7\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5904\u7406\uff1bNAIC \u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u89c1\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u589e\u52a0 RBC \u56e0\u5b50\u5e76\u89e6\u53d1\u989d\u5916\u7684 SVO \u5ba1\u67e5 | \u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c2027 \u5e74 11 \u6708<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

When Moody\u2019s put Athene\u2019s financial strength rating on negative outlook, Apollo\u2019s stock dropped 22% in two sessions. Brookfield, KKR, and the others followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u7a46\u8fea\u5c06 Athene \u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u5b9e\u529b\u8bc4\u7ea7\u7f6e\u4e8e\u8d1f\u9762\u5c55\u671b\u65f6\uff0cApollo \u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5185\u4e0b\u8dcc 22%\u3002Brookfield\u3001KKR \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u53f8\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It only got more complex from there. These firms hadn\u2019t just created their insurer perpetual motion machine, they\u2019d built an elaborate offshore architecture designed to maximize returns through regulatory arbitrage. The US insurer wrote the annuity, then ceded the risk to an affiliated Bermuda or Cayman reinsurer it also owned – set up to take advantage of more flexible regulation that permitted holding less capital against the same assets. That affiliate raised outside capital through offshore SPVs, a new layer of counterparties who invested alongside insurers into private credit originated by the same parent\u2019s asset management arm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u60c5\u51b5\u4ece\u6b64\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u4ec5\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u6c38\u52a8\u673a\uff0c\u8fd8\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u79bb\u5cb8\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u76d1\u7ba1\u5957\u5229\u6700\u5927\u5316\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u7b7e\u53d1\u5e74\u91d1\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u4fdd\u7ed9\u5b83\u4e5f\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u5173\u8054\u767e\u6155\u5927\u6216\u5f00\u66fc\u518d\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u8bbe\u7acb\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5229\u7528\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u5bf9\u76f8\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u6709\u8f83\u5c11\u8d44\u672c\u3002\u8be5\u5173\u8054\u516c\u53f8\u901a\u8fc7\u79bb\u5cb8 SPV\uff08\u7279\u6b8a\u76ee\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u7b79\u96c6\u5916\u90e8\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4e00\u5c42\u65b0\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u4e0e\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u4e00\u8d77\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u540c\u4e00\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u90e8\u95e8\u53d1\u8d77\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The ratings agencies, some of which were themselves PE-owned, had not been paragons of transparency (surprising to virtually) no one. The spider web of different firms linked to different balance sheets was stunning in its opacity. When the underlying loans defaulted, the question of who actually bore the loss was genuinely unanswerable in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f PE \u62e5\u6709\u7684\uff09\u5e76\u975e\u900f\u660e\u7684\u5178\u8303\uff08\u5bf9\u51e0\u4e4e\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\uff09\u3002\u8fde\u63a5\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8718\u86db\u7f51\u5728\u5176\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u6027\u4e0a\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u53f9\u3002\u5f53\u57fa\u7840\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fdd\u7ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u8c01\u5b9e\u9645\u627f\u62c5\u635f\u5931\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u5b9e\u65f6\u4e2d\u786e\u5b9e\u65e0\u6cd5\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The November 2027 crash marked the transition of perception from a potentially garden-variety cyclical drawdown to something much more uncomfortable.\u201cA daisy chain of correlated bets on white collar productivity growth\u201dwas what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh called it during the FOMC\u2019s emergency November meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2027 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u7684\u5d29\u76d8\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u8ba4\u77e5\u4ece\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u56de\u64a4\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\u3002\u201c\u62bc\u6ce8\u767d\u9886\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u589e\u957f\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u8d4c\u6ce8\u8fde\u73af\u8fde\u9501\u201d\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d Kevin Warsh \u5728 11 \u6708 FOMC \u7d27\u6025\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See, it is never the losses themselves that cause the crisis. It\u2019s recognizing them. And there is another, much larger, much much more important area of finance for which we have grown fearful of that recognition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u770b\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u5371\u673a\u7684\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u662f\u635f\u5931\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u800c\u662f\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5b83\u4eec\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5927\u3001\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u8bc6\u611f\u5230\u6050\u60e7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The Mortgage Question\uff5c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u95ee\u9898<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\n

ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX FALLS 11% YOY IN SAN FRANCISCO, 9% IN SEATTLE, 8% IN AUSTIN; FANNIE MAE FLAGS \u2018ELEVATED EARLY-STAGE DELINQUENCIES\u2019 IN ZIP CODES WITH >40% TECH\/FINANCE EMPLOYMENT | Zillow \/ Fannie Mae, June 2028<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zillow \u623f\u5c4b\u4ef7\u503c\u6307\u6570\u5728\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d 11%\uff0c\u897f\u96c5\u56fe 9%\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u6c40 8%\uff1b\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\u6807\u8bb0\u79d1\u6280\/\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a&gt;40% \u7684 ZIP code \u5b58\u5728\u201c\u65e9\u671f\u62d6\u6b20\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u201d | Zillow\/\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\uff0c2028 \u5e74 6 \u6708<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This month the Zillow Home Value Index fell 11% year-over-year in San Francisco, 9% in Seattle and 8% in Austin. This hasn\u2019t been the only worrying headline. Last month, Fannie Mae flagged higher early-stage delinquency from jumbo-heavy ZIP codes – areas that are populated by 780+ credit score borrowers and typically \u201cbulletproof\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u6708 Zillow \u623f\u5c4b\u4ef7\u503c\u6307\u6570\u5728\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d 11%\uff0c\u897f\u96c5\u56fe 9%\uff0c\u5965\u65af\u6c40 8%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u5934\u6761\u3002\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u623f\u5229\u7f8e\u6807\u8bb0\u4e86\u5927\u989d\u8d37\u6b3e\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684 ZIP code \u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u62d6\u6b20\u7387\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e9b\u533a\u57df\u4f4f\u7740 780+\u4fe1\u7528\u5206\u7684\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u201c\u9632\u5f39\u7684\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US residential mortgage market is approximately $13 trillion. Mortgage underwriting is built on the fundamental assumption that the borrower will remain employed at roughly their current income level for the duration of the loan. For thirty years, in the case of most mortgages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f4f\u5b85\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u7ea6\u4e3a 13 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u627f\u9500\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\uff1a\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u5728\u8d37\u6b3e\u671f\u9650\u5185\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u5927\u81f4\u5f53\u524d\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The white-collar employment crisis has threatened this assumption with a sustained shift in income expectations. We now have to ask a question that seemed absurd just 3 years ago -are prime mortgages money good?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u767d\u9886\u5c31\u4e1a\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u6536\u5165\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u8f6c\u53d8\u5a01\u80c1\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u95ee\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e09\u5e74\u524d\u770b\u4f3c\u8352\u8c2c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u4f18\u8d28\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every prior mortgage crisis in US history has been driven by one of three things: speculative excess (lending to people who couldn\u2019t afford the homes, as in 2008), interest rate shocks (rising rates making adjustable-rate mortgages unaffordable, as in the early 1980s), or localized economic shocks (a single industry collapsing in a single region, like oil in Texas in the 1980s or auto in Michigan in 2009).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6bcf\u6b21\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5371\u673a\u90fd\u662f\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff1a\u6295\u673a\u8fc7\u5269\uff08\u5411\u4e70\u4e0d\u8d77\u623f\u7684\u4eba\u653e\u8d37\uff0c\u5982 2008 \u5e74\uff09\u3001\u5229\u7387\u51b2\u51fb\uff08\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4f7f\u53ef\u8c03\u5229\u7387\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u8d1f\u62c5\u4e0d\u8d77\uff0c\u5982 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u5c40\u90e8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\uff08\u5355\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u5355\u4e00\u884c\u4e1a\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u5982 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u6216 2009 \u5e74\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u7684\u6c7d\u8f66\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of these apply here. The borrowers in question are not subprime. They\u2019re 780 FICO scores. They put 20% down. They have clean credit histories, stable employment records, and incomes that were verified and documented at origination. They were the borrowers that every risk model in the financial system treats as the bedrock of credit quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6b64\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u6b21\u7ea7\u8d37\u6b3e\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f 780 FICO \u4fe1\u7528\u5206\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u9996\u4ed8 20%\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u5e72\u51c0\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u8bb0\u5f55\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u8d37\u6b3e\u53d1\u653e\u65f6\u7ecf\u8fc7\u9a8c\u8bc1\u548c\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u6a21\u578b\u89c6\u4e3a\u4fe1\u7528\u8d28\u91cf\u57fa\u77f3\u7684\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2008, the loans were bad on day one. In 2028, the loans were good on day one. The world just\u2026changed after the loans were written. People borrowed against a future they can no longer afford to believe in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2008 \u5e74\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5929\u5c31\u662f\u574f\u7684\u30022028 \u5e74\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5929\u5c31\u662f\u597d\u7684\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u2026\u2026\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u8d37\u6b3e\u53d1\u653e\u540e\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u9488\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ed6\u4eec\u518d\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u8d1f\u62c5\u5f97\u8d77\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u672a\u6765\u501f\u6b3e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 2027, we flagged early signs of invisible stress: HELOC draws, 401(k) withdrawals, and credit card debt spiking while mortgage payments remained current. As jobs were lost, hiring was frozen and bonuses cut, these prime households saw their debt-to-income ratios double.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2027 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6807\u8bb0\u4e86\u9690\u5f62\u538b\u529b\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u8ff9\u8c61\uff1aHELOC\uff08\u623f\u5c4b\u51c0\u503c\u4fe1\u8d37\u989d\u5ea6\uff09\u63d0\u53d6\u3001401(k\uff09\u53d6\u6b3e\u3001\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u503a\u52a1\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fd8\u6b3e\u4fdd\u6301\u6b63\u5e38\u3002\u968f\u7740\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u62db\u8058\u51bb\u7ed3\u548c\u5956\u91d1\u524a\u51cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f18\u8d28\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They could still make the mortgage payment, but only by stopping all discretionary spending, draining savings, and deferring any home maintenance or improvement. They were technically current on their mortgage, but just one more shock away from distress, and the trajectory of AI capabilities suggested that shock is coming. Then we saw delinquencies begin to spike in San Francisco, Seattle, Manhattan and Austin, even as the national average stayed within historical norms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u652f\u4ed8\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u505c\u6b62\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u81ea\u7531\u652f\u914d\u652f\u51fa\u3001\u8017\u5c3d\u50a8\u84c4\u3001\u63a8\u8fdf\u4efb\u4f55\u623f\u5c4b\u7ef4\u62a4\u6216\u88c5\u4fee\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u8fd8\u6b3e\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u8ddd\u79bb\u56f0\u5883\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u800c AI \u80fd\u529b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8f68\u8ff9\u8868\u660e\u51b2\u51fb\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u62d6\u6b20\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u3001\u897f\u96c5\u56fe\u3001\u66fc\u54c8\u987f\u548c\u5965\u65af\u6c40\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5168\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u5e38\u6001\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re now in the most acute stage. Falling home prices are manageable when the marginal buyer is healthy. Here, the marginal buyer is dealing with the same income impairment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5904\u4e8e\u6700\u6025\u6027\u9636\u6bb5\u3002\u5f53\u8fb9\u9645\u4e70\u5bb6\u5065\u5eb7\u65f6\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u53ef\u63a7\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u8fb9\u9645\u4e70\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6536\u5165\u635f\u5bb3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While concerns are building, we are not yet in a full-blown mortgage crisis. Delinquencies have risen but remain well below 2008 levels. It is the trajectory that\u2019s the real threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u867d\u7136\u62c5\u5fe7\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c1a\u672a\u9677\u5165\u5168\u9762\u7684\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5371\u673a\u3002\u62d6\u6b20\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4f46\u4ecd\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e 2008 \u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u662f\u8f68\u8ff9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Intelligence Displacement Spiral now has two financial accelerants to the real economy\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u87ba\u65cb\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4e24\u5927\u91d1\u878d\u52a0\u901f\u5668\u63a8\u52a8\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor displacement, mortgage concerns, private market turmoil. Each reinforces the other. And the traditional policy toolkit (rate cuts, QE) can address the financial engine but cannot address the real economy engine, because the real economy engine is not driven by tight financial conditions. It\u2019s driven by AI making human intelligence less scarce and less valuable. You can cut rates to zero and buy every MBS and all the defaulted software LBO debt in the market\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u66ff\u4ee3\u3001\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u62c5\u5fe7\u3001\u79c1\u52df\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u5f3a\u5316\u5176\u4ed6\u3002\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u964d\u606f\u3001QE\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u91d1\u878d\u5f15\u64ce\u4f46\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f15\u64ce\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u7531 AI \u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u7a00\u7f3a\u548c\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u96f6\uff0c\u8d2d\u4e70\u6bcf\u4e2a MBS\uff08\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\uff09\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6 LBO \u503a\u52a1\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It won\u2019t change the fact that a Claude agent can do the work of a 200\/month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u4e00\u4e2a Claude agent \u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6bcf\u6708 200 \u7f8e\u5143\u5b8c\u6210 18 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ecf\u7406\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If these fears manifest, the mortgage market cracks in the back half of this year. In that scenario, we\u2019d expect the current drawdown in equities to ultimately rival that of the GFC (57% peak-to-trough). This would bring the S&P500 to ~3500 – levels we haven\u2019t seen since the month before the ChatGPT moment in November 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6050\u60e7\u6210\u771f\uff0c\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7834\u88c2\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5f53\u524d\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u64a4\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u4e0e GFC\uff08\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff09\u7684 57%\uff08\u5cf0\u503c\u5230\u8c37\u5e95\uff09\u76f8\u5339\u654c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u6807\u666e 500 \u964d\u81f3\u7ea6 3500 \u70b9\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u81ea 2022 \u5e74 11 \u6708 ChatGPT \u65f6\u523b\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s clear is that the income assumptions underlying $13 trillion in residential mortgages are structurally impaired. What isn\u2019t is whether policy can intervene before the mortgage market fully processes what this means. We\u2019re hopeful, but we can\u2019t deny the reasons not to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u652f\u6491 13 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4f4f\u5b85\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5047\u8bbe\u5df2\u53d7\u5230\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u635f\u5bb3\u3002\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u5b8c\u5168\u6d88\u5316\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e4b\u524d\u8fdb\u884c\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u62b1\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u5426\u8ba4\u4e0d\u62b1\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

2.7 The Battle Against Time | \u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u6597<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The first negative feedback loop was in the real economy: AI capability improves, payroll shrinks, spending softens, margins tighten, companies buy more capability, capability improves. Then it turned financial: income impairment hit mortgages, bank losses tightened credit, the wealth effect cracked, and the feedback loop sped up. And both of these have been exacerbated by an insufficient policy response from a government that seems, quite frankly, confused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5728\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff1aAI \u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u5355\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u75b2\u8f6f\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u8d2d\u4e70\u66f4\u591a\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u80fd\u529b\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5b83\u53d8\u6210\u91d1\u878d\uff1a\u6536\u5165\u635f\u5bb3\u51b2\u51fb\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u635f\u5931\u6536\u7d27\u4fe1\u8d37\uff0c\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u56e0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u5e94\u800c\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u5766\u767d\u8bf4\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u56f0\u60d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system wasn\u2019t designed for a crisis like this. The federal government\u2019s revenue base is essentially a tax on human time. People work, firms pay them, the government takes a cut. Individual income and payroll taxes are the spine of receipts in normal years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5371\u673a\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u57fa\u7840\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u7a0e\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u652f\u4ed8\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u53d6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4e2a\u4eba\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u548c\u5de5\u8d44\u7a0e\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u5e74\u4efd\u6536\u5165\u7684\u652f\u67f1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through Q1 of this year, federal receipts were running 12% below CBO baseline projections. Payroll receipts are falling because fewer people are employed at prior compensation levels. Income tax receipts are falling because the incomes being earned are structurally lower. Productivity is surging, but the gains are flowing to capital and compute, not labor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u6536\u5165\u6bd4 CBO\uff08\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff09\u57fa\u7ebf\u9884\u6d4b\u4f4e 12%\u3002\u5de5\u8d44\u7a0e\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5148\u524d\u85aa\u916c\u6c34\u5e73\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6240\u8d5a\u53d6\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5728\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u5728\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u6536\u76ca\u6d41\u5411\u8d44\u672c\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor\u2019s share of GDP declined from 64% in 1974 to 56% in 2024, a four-decade grind lower driven by globalization, automation, and the steady erosion of worker bargaining power. In the four years since AI began its exponential improvement, that has dropped to 46%. The sharpest decline on record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5360 GDP \u7684\u4efd\u989d\u4ece 1974 \u5e74\u7684 64% \u4e0b\u964d\u5230 2024 \u5e74\u7684 56%\uff0c\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u7531\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3001\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u548c\u5de5\u4eba\u8bae\u4ef7\u80fd\u529b\u7a33\u6b65\u4fb5\u8680\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u5728 AI \u5f00\u59cb\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u56db\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5df2\u964d\u81f3 46%\u3002\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u6700\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The output is still there. But it\u2019s no longer routing through households on the way back to firms, which means it\u2019s no longer routing through the IRS either. The circular flow is breaking, and the government is expected to step in to fix that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ea7\u51fa\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0d\u518d\u5728\u8fd4\u56de\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9014\u4e2d\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u518d\u7ecf\u8fc7 IRS\uff08\u56fd\u7a0e\u5c40\uff09\u3002\u5faa\u73af\u6d41\u52a8\u6b63\u5728\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u4ecb\u5165\u4fee\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As in every downturn, outlays rise just as receipts fall. The difference this time is that the spending pressure is not cyclical. Automatic stabilizers were built for temporary job losses, not structural displacement. The system is paying benefits that assume workers will be reabsorbed. Many will not, at least not at anything like their prior wage. During COVID, the government freely embraced 15% deficits, but it was understood to be temporary. The people who need government support today were not hit by a pandemic they\u2019ll recover from. They were replaced by a technology that continues to improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u540c\u6bcf\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u652f\u51fa\u5728\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u662f\u652f\u51fa\u538b\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u3002\u81ea\u52a8\u7a33\u5b9a\u5668\u662f\u4e3a\u4e34\u65f6\u5931\u4e1a\u800c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u66ff\u4ee3\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u798f\u5229\u5047\u8bbe\u5de5\u4eba\u5c06\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u5438\u6536\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd1\u4ed6\u4eec\u5148\u524d\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5728 COVID \u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u81ea\u7531\u62e5\u62b1 15% \u7684\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u9700\u8981\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\u7684\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u88ab\u4e00\u79cd\u6301\u7eed\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u6280\u672f\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government needs to transfer more money to households at precisely the moment it is collecting less money from them in taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u5728\u4ece\u7a0e\u6536\u4e2d\u4ece\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u53d6\u66f4\u5c11\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u523b\u5411\u5bb6\u5ead\u8f6c\u79fb\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U. S. won\u2019t default. It prints the currency it spends, the same currency it uses to pay back borrowers. But this stress has shown up elsewhere. Municipal bonds are showing worrying signs of dispersion in year-to-date performance. States without income tax have been okay, but general obligation munis issued by states dependent on income tax (majority blue states) began to price in some default risk. Politicos caught on quickly, and the debate over who gets bailed out has fallen along partisan lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u3002\u5b83\u5370\u5236\u5b83\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u7528\u5b83\u507f\u8fd8\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u538b\u529b\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u5e02\u653f\u503a\u5238\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u8fc4\u4eca\u8868\u73b0\u4e2d\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u5206\u5316\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\u7684\u5dde\u8fd8\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u8d56\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\uff08\u591a\u6570\u84dd\u5dde\uff09\u7684\u5dde\u53d1\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u4e49\u52a1\u5e02\u653f\u503a\u5238\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e00\u4e9b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u8fc5\u901f\u9886\u4f1a\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u8c01\u83b7\u5f97\u6551\u52a9\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u5df2\u6cbf\u7740\u515a\u6d3e\u754c\u9650\u5206\u88c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration, to its credit, recognized the structural nature of the crisis early and began entertaining bipartisan proposals for what they\u2018re calling the \u201cTransition Economy Act\u201d: a framework for direct transfers to displaced workers funded by a combination of deficit \u652f\u51fa and a proposed tax on AI inference compute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u503c\u5f97\u79f0\u8d5e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u65e9\u65e9\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u5371\u673a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u515a\u63d0\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u79f0\u7684\u201c\u8f6c\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cd5\u6848\u201d\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5411\u5931\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u79fb\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u7531\u8d64\u5b57\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u63d0\u8bae\u7684\u5bf9 AI \u63a8\u7406\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u7ec4\u5408\u8d44\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most radical proposal on the table goes further. The \u201cShared AI Prosperity Act\u201d would establish a public claim on the returns of the intelligence infrastructure itself, something between a sovereign wealth fund and a royalty on AI-generated output, with dividends funding household transfers. Private sector lobbyists have flooded the media with warnings about the slippery slope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u684c\u4e0a\u6700\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u63d0\u6848\u66f4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u201c\u5171\u4eab AI \u7e41\u8363\u6cd5\u6848\u201d\u5c06\u5bf9\u667a\u80fd\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u5efa\u7acb\u516c\u5171\u7d22\u8d54\u6743\uff0c\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e3b\u6743\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\u548c AI \u751f\u6210\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u7279\u8bb8\u6743\u4f7f\u7528\u8d39\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u7528\u80a1\u606f\u8d44\u52a9\u5bb6\u5ead\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6e38\u8bf4\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u7528\u5173\u4e8e\u6ed1\u5761\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u6df9\u6ca1\u4e86\u5a92\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The politics behind the discussions have been grimly predictable, exacerbated by grandstanding and brinkmanship. The right calls transfers and redistribution Marxism and warns that taxing compute hands the lead to China. The left warns that a tax drafted with the help of incumbents becomes regulatory capture by another name. Fiscal hawks point to unsustainable deficits. Doves point to the premature austerity imposed after the GFC as a cautionary tale. The divide is only magnifying in the run up to this year\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8ba8\u8bba\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e25\u5cfb\u5730\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u54d7\u4f17\u53d6\u5ba0\u548c\u8fb9\u7f18\u653f\u7b56\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u3002\u53f3\u7ffc\u79f0\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u548c\u518d\u5206\u914d\u4e3a\u9a6c\u514b\u601d\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f81\u7a0e\u4f1a\u5c06\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u5de6\u7ffc\u8b66\u544a\u4e0e\u73b0\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e00\u8d77\u8d77\u8349\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u4f1a\u4ee5\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e49\u6210\u4e3a\u76d1\u7ba1\u4fd8\u83b7\u3002\u8d22\u653f\u9e70\u6d3e\u6307\u51fa\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u9e3d\u6d3e\u6307\u51fa GFC \u540e\u8fc7\u65e9\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u7d27\u7f29\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u793a\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u524d\u5915\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6b67\u6b63\u5728\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the politicians bicker, the social fabric is fraying faster than the legislative process can move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u4e89\u5435\u65f6\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u6bd4\u7acb\u6cd5\u7a0b\u5e8f\u80fd\u8ddf\u4e0a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u78e8\u635f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Occupy Silicon Valley movement has been emblematic of wider dissatisfaction. Last month, demonstrators blockaded the entrances to Anthropic and OpenAI\u2019s San Francisco offices for three weeks straight. Their numbers are growing, and the demonstrations have drawn more media coverage than the unemployment data that prompted them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5360\u9886\u7845\u8c37\u8fd0\u52a8\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4e0d\u6ee1\u7684\u8c61\u5f81\u3002\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u793a\u5a01\u8005\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u5468\u5c01\u9501\u4e86 Anthropic \u548c OpenAI \u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u5165\u53e3\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u793a\u5a01\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u6bd4\u5f15\u53d1\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard to imagine the public hating anyone more than the bankers in the fallout of the GFC, but the AI labs are making a run at it. And, from the perspective of the masses, for good reason. Their founders and early investors have accumulated wealth at a pace that makes the Gilded Age look tame. The gains from the productivity boom accruing almost entirely to the owners of compute and the shareholders of the labs that ran on it has magnified US inequality to unprecedented levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f88\u96be\u60f3\u8c61\u516c\u4f17\u4f1a\u6bd4\u5728 GFC \u540e\u679c\u4e2d\u66f4\u618e\u6068\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46 AI \u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4ece\u7fa4\u4f17\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7406\u7531\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ee5\u8ba9\u9540\u91d1\u65f6\u4ee3\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u79ef\u7d2f\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u6d41\u5411\u8ba1\u7b97\u6240\u6709\u8005\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u5b83\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u80a1\u4e1c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5df2\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u653e\u5927\u5230\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every side has their own villain, but the real villain is time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6bcf\u4e00\u65b9\u90fd\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u53cd\u6d3e\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u53cd\u6d3e\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI capability is evolving faster than institutions can adapt. The policy response is moving at the pace of ideology, not reality. If the government doesn\u2019t agree on what the problem is soon, the feedback loop will write the next chapter for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI \u80fd\u529b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u673a\u6784\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u5e94\u4ee5\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u524d\u8fdb\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c3d\u5feb\u5c31\u95ee\u9898\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5c06\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e66\u5199\u4e0b\u4e00\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

3. The Intelligence Premium Unwind<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u667a\u80fd\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u6d88\u9000<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

For the entirety of modern economic history, human intelligence has been the scarce input. Capital was abundant (or at least, replicable). Natural resources were finite but substitutable. Technology improved slowly enough that humans could adapt. Intelligence, the ability to analyze, decide, create, persuade, and coordinate, was the thing that could not be replicated at scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53f2\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u7a00\u7f3a\u8f93\u5165\u3002\u8d44\u672c\u662f\u5145\u88d5\u7684\uff08\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u590d\u5236\u7684\uff09\u3002\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4f46\u53ef\u66ff\u4ee3\u7684\u3002\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u8db3\u591f\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u5373\u5206\u6790\u3001\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u521b\u9020\u3001\u8bf4\u670d\u548c\u534f\u8c03\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u590d\u5236\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human intelligence derived its inherent premium from its scarcity. Every institution in our economy, from the labor market to the mortgage market to the tax code, was designed for a world in which that assumption held.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u56e0\u5176\u7a00\u7f3a\u6027\u800c\u83b7\u5f97\u5176\u5185\u5728\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u4ece\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5230\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u5230\u7a0e\u6cd5\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u800c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are now experiencing the unwind of that premium. Machine intelligence is now a competent and rapidly improving substitute for human intelligence across a growing range of tasks. The financial system, optimized over decades for a world of scarce human minds, is repricing. That repricing is painful, disorderly, and far from complete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ea2\u4ef7\u7684\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u673a\u5668\u667a\u80fd\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u80dc\u4efb\u4e14\u5feb\u901f\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002\u4e3a\u7a00\u7f3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u5fc3\u667a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u800c\u4f18\u5316\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7cfb\u7edf\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u662f\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u3001\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fdc\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But repricing is not the same as collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economy can find a new equilibrium. Getting there is one of the few tasks left that only humans can do. We need to do it correctly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u5747\u8861\u3002\u5230\u8fbe\u90a3\u91cc\u662f\u7559\u7ed9\u4eba\u7c7b\u80fd\u505a\u7684\u5c11\u6570\u4efb\u52a1\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the first time in history the most productive asset in the economy has produced fewer, not more, jobs. Nobody\u2019s framework fits, because none were designed for a world where the scarce input became abundant. So we have to make new frameworks.Whether we build them in time is the only question that matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u5c11\u800c\u975e\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u8c01\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u4e3a\u7a00\u7f3a\u8f93\u5165\u53d8\u5f97\u4e30\u88d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5236\u5b9a\u65b0\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u53ca\u65f6\u6784\u5efa\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But you\u2019re not reading this in June 2028. You\u2019re reading it in February 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\u5728 2028 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u8bfb\u5230\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u4f60\u662f\u5728 2026 \u5e74 2 \u6708\u8bfb\u5230\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P is near all-time highs. The negative feedback loops have not begun. We are certain some of these scenarios won\u2019t materialize. We\u2019re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate. The premium on human intelligence will narrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6807\u666e 500 \u63a5\u8fd1\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\u8d1f\u53cd\u9988\u5faa\u73af\u5c1a\u672a\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u540c\u6837\u786e\u5b9a\u673a\u5668\u667a\u80fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5c06\u6536\u7a84\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won\u2019t survive the decade. As a society, we still have time to be proactive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u8bc4\u4f30\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u672c\u5341\u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0a\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u6781\u4e3b\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The canary is still alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u91d1\u4e1d\u96c0\u8fd8\u6d3b\u7740\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Acknowledgements | \u81f4\u8c22<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Thanks to Sam Koppelman of for his help with proofreading. Our co-author, Alap Shah of LOTUS, contributed the idea for this piece – CitriniResearch wrote this party, but he has written others in a series called the Intelligence Explosion, we highly recommend reading it. You can find it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u611f\u8c22 Sam Koppelman \u5728\u6821\u5bf9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5408\u8457\u8005\uff0cLOTUS \u7684 Alap Shah \u8d21\u732e\u4e86\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u521b\u610f\u2014\u2014CitriniResearch \u5199\u4e86\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e3a\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u7206\u70b8\u201d\u7cfb\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f3a\u70c8\u63a8\u8350\u9605\u8bfb\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e 2026-02-27 23:32\u30fb\u5317\u4eac
https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/2010859848191984902<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aCitrini\uff0c Alap Shah \u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1akimi-k2.5\uff0cgemini 3 \u7f16\u8f91&\u6821\u5bf9\uff1a\u6c90\u6d12 1. Preface \u5e8f\u8a00 What if o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11808\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}