{"id":11633,"date":"2026-03-12T16:25:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T08:25:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11633"},"modified":"2026-03-12T16:41:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T08:41:21","slug":"%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%ba%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%ad%a6%e4%b9%8b%e8%bf%87%e5%ba%a6%e8%87%aa%e4%bf%a1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11633","title":{"rendered":"\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e4b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"\/<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66–\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u201d\uff08Overconfidence\uff09\u662f\u89e3\u91ca\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u548c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u8eab\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u51b3\u7b56\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5f02\u8c61\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4ece\u591a\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u8bfb\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5f62\u5f0f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

1\u3001\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e7b\u89c9\uff08Illusion of Knowledge\uff09\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u591a\u6216\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6563\u6237\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u9605\u8bfb\u51e0\u4efd\u8d22\u7ecf\u62a5\u9053\u800c\u575a\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u5e02\u573a\u968f\u673a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\u3001\u63a7\u5236\u9519\u89c9\uff08Illusion of Control\uff09\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u8eab\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u3002\u5982\u9891\u7e41\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u4e3b\u52a8\u64cd\u4f5c\u201d\u80fd\u6218\u80dc\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u52a8\u6295\u8d44\u66f4\u4f18\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\u3001\u4f18\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6548\u5e94\uff08Better-than-Average Effect\uff09\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff08\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff09\u3002\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c90%\u7684\u53f8\u673a\u81ea\u8bc4\u9a7e\u9a76\u6280\u672f\u5728\u524d50%\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u504f\u5dee\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e2d\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u6839\u6e90<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

1\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u5f52\u56e0\u504f\u5dee\uff08Self-attribution Bias\uff09\uff1a\u6210\u529f\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c06\u76c8\u5229\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u9009\u80a1\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u5219\u602a\u7f6a\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u566a\u97f3\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\u3001\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\uff08Confirmation Bias\uff09\uff1a\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u5173\u6ce8\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u8eab\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u5982\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ea\u542c\u53d6\u770b\u6da8\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u98ce\u9669\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\u3001\u540e\u89c1\u4e4b\u660e\u504f\u5dee\uff08Hindsight Bias\uff09\uff1a\u4e8b\u540e\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u201c\u672c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u672a\u6765\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u5982\u80a1\u707e\u540e\u58f0\u79f0\u201c\u65e9\u77e5\u5982\u6b64\u201d\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e8b\u524d\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u3001\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

1\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613\uff08Excessive Trading\uff09\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u8005\u4ea4\u6613\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u4f46\u6536\u76ca\u53cd\u800c\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002Barber & Odean\uff082000\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7537\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u56e0\u66f4\u9ad8\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6bd4\u5973\u6027\u9ad845%\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca\u5374\u4f4e1.4%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e0e\u5d29\u76d8\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u63a8\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\uff08\u59822000\u5e74\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9ad8\u4f30\u5bf9\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u524d\u666f\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u7eed\u4fe1\u606f\u4fee\u6b63\u5bfc\u81f4\u5267\u70c8\u56de\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u653e\u5927\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u8005\u4f4e\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5145\u5f53\u201c\u566a\u58f0\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u201d\uff0c\u52a0\u5267\u4ef7\u683c\u504f\u79bb\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff08\u5982GameStop\u7b49Meme\u80a1\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\u3001\u5e76\u8d2d\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u51b3\u7b56\u5931\u8bef\u9ad8\u7ba1\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u9ad8\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5e76\u8d2d\uff08\u5982AOL\u65f6\u4ee3\u534e\u7eb3\u6848\u4f8b\uff09\uff0c\u635f\u5bb3\u80a1\u4e1c\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

1\u3001\u4e0e\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u7ed3\u5408\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc7\u65e9\u5356\u51fa\u76c8\u5229\u80a1\uff08\u5151\u73b0\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u5374\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u80a1\uff08\u907f\u514d\u627f\u8ba4\u9519\u8bef\uff09\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u201c\u5904\u7f6e\u6548\u5e94\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\u3001\u4e0e\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u5e94\u77db\u76fe\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u8005\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5e94\u72ec\u7acb\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u4fe1\u606f\u7011\u5e03\uff08Information Cascades\uff09\u8ddf\u968f\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e0e\u4ece\u4f17\u7684\u590d\u6742\u52a8\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0e\u7406\u6027\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u6839\u672c\u80cc\u79bb\uff0c\u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u89e3\u91ca\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u6548\u6027\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u7406\u89e3\u5176\u673a\u5236\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u89c4\u907f\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u76d1\u7ba1\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff08\u5982\u51b7\u9759\u671f\u5236\u5ea6\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u6b63\u5982Daniel Kahneman\u6240\u8a00\uff1a\u201c\u5bf9\u65e0\u77e5\u7684\u65e0\u77e5\u201d\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u6700\u5371\u9669\u7684\u72b6\u6001<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u94b0\u9526\u57fa\u91d1<\/a> \u53d1\u5e03\u4e8ehttps:\/\/xueqiu.com\/4384433794\/331678877<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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