{"id":11631,"date":"2026-03-12T16:39:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T08:39:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11631"},"modified":"2026-03-12T16:42:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T08:42:51","slug":"%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%ba%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%ad%a6-%e8%bf%87%e5%ba%a6%e8%87%aa%e4%bf%a1%e7%90%86%e8%ae%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=11631","title":{"rendered":"\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66 | \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7406\u8bba"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. \u5b9a\u4e49<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7406\u8bba(overconfidence theory) \u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u56db\u5927\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u5927\u91cf\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=121308013&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%BF%83%E7%90%86%E5%AD%A6&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8ba4\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/a>\u7684\u6587\u732e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5bf9\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u4f4e\u4f30\u67d0\u7c7b\u4fe1\u606f\u5e76\u9ad8\u4f30\u5176\u4ed6\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gervaris\u3001Heaton\u548cOdean(2002)\u5c06\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\uff1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u6bd4\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u5927\u4e8e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u7684\u6743\u91cd<\/strong>\u3002\u5173\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=121308013&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E4%B8%BB%E8%A7%82%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E6%B5%8B%E5%BA%A6&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e3b\u89c2\u6982\u7387\u6d4b\u5ea6<\/a>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u53d1\u73b0\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f30\u8ba1\u81ea\u8eab\u77e5\u8bc6\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. \u4eba\u4e3a\u4f55\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u751f\u7269\u8fdb\u5316\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u663e\u5f97\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u66f4\u806a\u660e\u548c\u5f3a\u58ee\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e2a\u4f53\u4f20\u5b97\u63a5\u4ee3\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u6bd4\u4e0d\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u673a\u4f1a\u3001\u4ea4\u53cb\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4ece\u4e2a\u4eba\u6210\u957f\u8f68\u8ff9\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u88ab\u5bb6\u5ead\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u6ecb\u957f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e0a\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5b83\u548c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e0e\u4fe1\u606f\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u95ee\u4f60\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u4e00\u70b9\u90fd\u4e0d\u61c2\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u81ea\u4fe1\u5417\uff1f\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u90a3\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u662f\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u4ec0\u4e48\u77e5\u8bc6\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4fe1\u606f\u6536\u96c6\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f60\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u79ef\u7d2f\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u80fd\u529b\u76f8\u5e94\u5c31\u6da8\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6\u4f60\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e5f\u5728\u540c\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u662f\u540c\u6b65\u589e\u957f\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6ce8\u610f\u4e86\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u80fd\u529b\u5374\u662f\u6709\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u5404\u79cd\u4fe1\u606f\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5374\u662f\u4f1a\u5c01\u9876\u7684\u3002\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u5230\u8fbe\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6ca1\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u4f60\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5374\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u4f60\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u5229\u5f0a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5f71\u54cd\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u6709\u4e2a\u5b9a\u7406\uff0c\u53eb<strong>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=121308013&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%97%A0%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E5%AE%9A%E7%90%86&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u65e0\u4ea4\u6613\u5b9a\u7406<\/a>\u201d\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u4eba\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u6ca1\u6709\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u8981\u4e70\u3001\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u8981\u5356\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5747\u8861\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5e94\u8be5\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u65e0\u4ea4\u6613\u5b9a\u7406\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6bcf\u65f6\u6bcf\u523b\u90fd\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u53ea\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\uff1b\u4ed6\u53ea\u76f8\u4fe1\u4ed6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\uff0c\u90a3\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u6837\uff1f\u6210\u4ea4\uff01\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6210\u4ea4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u6b67\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7559\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u80af\u5b9a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u6218\u80dc\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u80fd\u8d5a\u5230\u94b1\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u7559\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u548c\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6070\u6070\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7559\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6070\u5f53\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u80fd\u653e\u5927\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u5904\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u597d\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<strong>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4eba\u611f\u89c9\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728\u7406\u6027\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e0d\u4f1a\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ed8\u51fa\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u533b\u751f\u8bca\u65ad\u75c5\u4eba\u3001\u6cd5\u5b98\u5ba1\u5224\u6848\u4ef6\u6216\u592e\u884c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4eba\u5ffd\u89c6\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u8be5\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u4e70\u5165\uff1b\u4e0d\u8be5\u5356\u51fa\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u53c8\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u5356\u51fa\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f46\u53d1\u73b0\u6ca1\u8d5a\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u94b1\uff0c\u505a\u7684\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4e8f\u7684\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u5f71\u54cd\u4eba\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9996\u5148<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u8005\u81ea\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d85\u8fc7\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u786e\u5b9e\u6bd4\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e5f\u4f1a\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u4efb\u52a1\u96be\u5ea6\u5c0f\uff0c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\uff1b\u4f46\u5f53\u4efb\u52a1\u96be\u5ea6\u5927\uff0c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6d4b\u53d1\u8868\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e14\u5e38\u5e38\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u9884\u6d4b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5ba2\u89c2\u5224\u65ad\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5176\u6b21<\/strong>\uff0c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c<strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u725b\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u683c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005<\/strong>\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<strong>\u725b\u5e02\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff1b\u800c\u7ecf\u5386\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6bd4\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u60b2\u89c2<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u53ea\u6709\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u725b\u718a\u5e02\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5e73\u8861\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5fc3\u6001\u548c\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u60f3\u51cf\u5c11\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. \u600e\u6837\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211<strong>\u5148\u95ee\u4f60\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5728\u4f60\u5e73\u65f6\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u5bf9\u522b\u4eba\uff0c\u7528\u7684\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4f53\u7cfb\u5417\uff1f<\/strong>\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9519\uff01\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u800c\u8a00\u7684\uff0c\u5bf9\u522b\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u5224\u5374\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u5f53\u5c40\u8005\u8ff7\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u3002\u81ea\u5df1\u5982\u679c\u662f\u5f53\u4e8b\u4eba\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u770b\u4e0d\u6e05\uff1b\u81ea\u5df1\u5982\u679c\u662f\u65c1\u89c2\u8005\uff0c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6307\u51fa\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u505a\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u8d44\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u53bb\u6295\u8d44\uff1b\u4f60\u53c8\u540c\u65f6\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6563\u6237\u4f1a\u4e8f\u94b1\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u800c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6bcf\u4e2a\u906d\u9047\u5927\u75c5\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u751f\u75c5\u4e4b\u524d\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u60f3\u8fd9\u4e8b\u513f\u4f1a\u843d\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u5934\u4e0a\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c<strong>\u600e\u6837\u514b\u670d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff1f\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7ad9\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8bc4\u5224\u4f1a\u51c6\u786e\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u6216\u8005\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7f6e\u8eab\u4e8b\u5916\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u81ea\u6211\u8ba4\u8bc6\u3002\u8981\u5168\u9762\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u81ea\u6211\uff0c\u65e2\u8981\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u548c\u957f\u5904\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7f3a\u70b9\u548c\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e00\u53f6\u969c\u76ee\uff0c\u4e0d\u89c1\u6cf0\u5c71\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8981\u4ee5\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u773c\u5149\u770b\u5f85\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u65e2\u8981\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u770b\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u73b0\u5728\u548c\u5c06\u6765\uff0c\u8f89\u714c\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u53ef\u80fd\u6807\u5fd7\u7740\u4f60\u8fc7\u53bb\u662f\u4e2a\u82f1\u96c4\uff0c\u53ef\u5b83\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u9884\u793a\u7740\u5c06\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. \u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u9646\u84c9\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=121308013&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E3%80%8A%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%AD%A6%E3%80%8B&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u300b<\/a>\u7b2c7\u8bfe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=https%3A\/\/links.jianshu.com\/go%3Fto%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fen.wikipedia.org%252Fwiki%252FOverconfidence_effect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=https%3A\/\/links.jianshu.com\/go%3Fto%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fbaike.baidu.com%252Fitem%252F%2525E8%2525BF%252587%2525E5%2525BA%2525A6%2525E8%252587%2525AA%2525E4%2525BF%2525A1%2525E7%252590%252586%2525E8%2525AE%2525BA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u767e\u5ea6\u767e\u79d11<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=https%3A\/\/links.jianshu.com\/go%3Fto%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fbaike.baidu.com%252Fitem%252F%2525E8%2525BF%252587%2525E5%2525BA%2525A6%2525E8%252587%2525AA%2525E4%2525BF%2525A1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u767e\u5ea6\u767e\u79d12<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u654c\u4eba\u300bP136\uff0cP342<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e 2020-06-18 21:25<br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/149289678\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/149289678<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e13\u680f<br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/c_1256524059112017920\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/c_1256524059112017920<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1. \u5b9a\u4e49 \u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7406\u8bba(overconfidence theory) \u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7684\u56db\u5927\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002 \u5927\u91cf [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11631\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}