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Week<\/em>\uff09\u7684\u5927\u7bc7\u5e45\u62a5\u5bfc\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u8bf4\u8f9e\u4e0e\u5b66\u672f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u65b0\u751f\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1-\u7f8e\u5143\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u5c06\u50cf1931\u5e74\u548c1933\u5e74\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90a3\u6837\u96be\u4ee5\u81ea\u6301\u5e76\u5d29\u6e83\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5411\u8054\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u201c\u4e24\u96be\u9009\u62e9\u56f0\u5883\u201d\u3002<strong>\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u201c\u603b\u4f53\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u8d64\u5b57\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u5b83\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8d1f\u503a\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff08\u4f1a\u53d8\u5c0f\uff09 &#8211; 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href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=2&amp;q=%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u5143\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u6d6e\u73b0\u540e\u7684\u56db\u5e74\uff0c1963\u5e74\u76849\u6708\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f97\u77e5\u6709<strong>44.5\u4ebf\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u94f6\u884c\u8d1f\u503a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5883\u5916<\/strong>\u3002BIS\u4e4b\u540e\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u4e0a\u4fee\u5230\u4e8669.4\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u79bb\u5cb8\u7f8e\u5143\u5b58\u6b3e\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u4e86\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u3002BIS\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u79bb\u5cb8\u7f8e\u5143\u5b58\u6b3e\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5728\u5cb8\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7ed3\u8bba\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c<strong>\u592e\u884c\u786e\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u79bb\u5cb8\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u7684\u672c\u571f\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7BEA\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d1f\u503a\u6355\u6349\u5230\u7ec6\u8282\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe1\uff1a\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u4e00\u6218\u524d\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\uff08\u5bf9\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8d1f\u503a\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u6301\u4ed3\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/v2-e736f00e04c290edb576a3b23405540b_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u9879\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u9053\u626c\u9573\uff08\u56fe2\uff09\u3002<strong>\u8fd9\u6837\u6765\u770b\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u52a0\u603b\u79bb\u5cb8\u548c\u5728\u5cb8\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u6709\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u603b\u548c\u57281962\u5e74\u5c31\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u57281964\u5e74<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u9ec4\u91d1-\u7f8e\u5143\u8131\u94a9\u503c\u5f97\u88ab\u94ed\u8bb0\uff0c<strong>\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u5ffd\u89c6\u548c\u5fd8\u5374\u4ed6\u72af\u4e0b\u7684\u9519\u8bef<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u4ed6<strong>\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u901a\u7f29\u800c\u975e\u901a\u80c0<\/strong>\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a\u201c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u627f\u8ba4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u4f53\u7cfb\u672a\u6765\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u5371\u9669\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u6240\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u6211\u521d\u6b65\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f1a\u7ed9\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u70b9\u5e26\u6765\u8fc7\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\u2014\u2014\u5373<strong>\u5168\u7403<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=3&amp;q=%E9%80%9A%E7%BC%A9&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u901a\u7f29<\/a>\u7684\u5371\u9669<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6587\u5b57\u5219\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\uff0c\u5373<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u6301\u7eed\u8d64\u5b57\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6f5c\u529b<\/strong>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6211<strong>\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u6d77\u5916\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u5438\u6536\u89c4\u6a21\u4ee5\u53ca\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u610f\u613f<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u8d27\u5e01\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e5f\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87%E9%87%91&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u90e8\u5206\u51c6\u5907\u91d1<\/a>\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u6210\u500d\u6269\u5f20\u5e76\u5e26\u6765\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe2\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u79bb\u5cb8\u7f8e\u5143\u5b58\u6b3e\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u9ec4\u91d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/v2-71db0bcf2773bf76ae0e09802a43db91_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ee5\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4ed6\u6240\u9884\u8a00\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1-\u7f8e\u5143\u8131\u94a9\u786e\u5b9e\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u540e\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\uff08\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\uff09\u518d\u6b21\u8fbe\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\uff0c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u4e24\u5927\u5143\u7d20\u3002\u5b83\u5c06<strong>\u673a\u68b0\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e58\u6570\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\u3002\u672c\u571f\u8d27\u5e01\u4ee5\u53ca\u94f6\u884c\u4fe1\u8d37\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u9700\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u9ec4\u91d1\u548c\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u652f\u6491\u3002\u800c\u4ed6\u5c06\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6709\u9650\u751f\u4ea7\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u5373\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b9a\u5f97\u592a\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u9f13\u52b1\u91c7\u77ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u673a\u5236\u901a\u8fc7\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u6295\u673a\u653b\u51fb\u6a21\u578b\uff08Salant\u548cHenderson\uff081978\uff09\u548cKrugman\uff081979\uff09\uff09\u800c\u5f97\u4ee5\u53d1\u626c\uff0cGarber\uff081993\uff09 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noopener\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/a>\u5c06\u91cd\u73b0\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u89c2\u70b9<strong>\u88ab\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6240\u91cd\u89c6<\/strong>\u30021960\u5e7410\u6708\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4f26\u6566\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u731b\u6da8\u81f340\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fc3\u5982\u679c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\uff0c<strong>\u4ed6\u5c06\u6267\u884c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u653f\u7b56<\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u501f\u6b64\u963b\u6b62\u57281950\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u635f\u5931\u3002\u540c\u671f\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%BA%BD%E7%BA%A6%E8%81%94%E9%82%A6%E5%82%A8%E5%A4%87%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%88%A9%E6%81%AF%E5%B9%B3%E8%A1%A1%E7%A8%8E&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5229\u606f\u5e73\u8861\u7a0e<\/a>\u201d\uff08Interest Equalization Tax\uff0c1963\uff09\u5bf9\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u51fa\u5f81\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9053\u4e49\u529d\u8bf4\u2014\u2014\u8bd5\u56fe\u9650\u5236\u94f6\u884c\u4fe1\u8d37\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6d41\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8054\u5408\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u5e72\u9884\uff0c\u57281962\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bbe\u7acb<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E4%BA%92%E6%8D%A2&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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noopener\">\u4f2f\u5357\u514b<\/a>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bb0\u8f7d\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u8d27\u5e01\u4e58\u6570\uff08\u8be5\u6bd4\u7387=\u5305\u62ec\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5728\u5185\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\/\u8d27\u5e01\u9ec4\u91d1\uff09\u57281928\u5e74-1932\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u5d29\u584c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic3.zhimg.com\/v2-49fe6b0ada5c0edd76410482b20d698e_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u57281931\u5e745\u6708\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5bf9\u5965\u5730\u5229\u5148\u4ee4\u7684\u6295\u673a\u6027\u653b\u51fb\uff0c1931\u5e746\u6708\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u9a6c\u514b\u7684\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca1931\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u7684\u5bf9\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u5728\u5f53\u5e74\u76849\u6708\u4efd\u800c\u9009\u62e9\u8131\u79bb\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u7ade\u76f8\u8ddf\u968f\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u5219\u662f1931\u5e7410\u6708\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u653b\u51fb\uff0c1933\u5e74\u51ac\u5b63\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u8f6e\u653b\u51fb\u3002\u6700\u540e\u662f1935\u5e74\u548c1936\u5e74\u5bf9<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%BB%84%E9%87%91%E9%9B%86%E5%9B%A2&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9ec4\u91d1\u96c6\u56e2<\/a>\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u88ad\u51fb\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f41936\u5e7410\u6708\u6cd5\u56fd\u8131\u79bb\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe2\u4e2d\u8bf8\u591a\u5206\u9879\u7ec6\u8282\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\uff0c<strong>\u5373\u50a8\u5907\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387<\/strong>\u3002\u4ece1928\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u52301931\u5e749\u6708\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u6d6e\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u7d2b\u8272\uff09\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u516c\u5e73\u8d77\u89c1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c<strong>1928\u5e74\u52301932\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u50a8\u5907\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8634\uff05\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u6837\u672c\u6392\u9664\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u548c\u7c73\u970d\u592b\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53ea\u663e\u793a\u51fa5\uff05\u7684\u4e0b\u964d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe3\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8d27\u5e01\u6536\u7f29\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e03\u4e2a\u5de5\u4e1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u51fa\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u6291\u5236\u4e86M1\u57281928-1930\u5e74\u95f4\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u8d27\u5e01\/\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\uff08\u9ec4\u7ebf\uff09\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c<a 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href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%A9%B9%E5%A7%86%E6%96%AF&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8a79\u59c6\u65af<\/a>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<strong>\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u4e1a\u6050\u614c\u4e0e\u7c98\u6027\u5de5\u8d44\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6563\u64ad\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8427\u6761<\/strong>\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684<strong>\u8513\u5ef6\u4e0e\u4f20\u5bfc\u4ea6\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\uff08Kindleberger\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8c1c\u9898\u2014\u2014\u53731880\u5e74\u81f31914\u5e74\u53e4\u5178\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5236\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u50cf\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u90a3\u6837\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u662f\u91d1\u6c47\u5151\u672c\u4f4d\u548c\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u524d\u8eab\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\u4e2d\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4e0e\u6218\u540e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u7c7b\u4f3c\u2014\u2014\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6027\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u53d1\u6325\u5a92\u4ecb\u8d27\u5e01\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%AE%A1%E4%BB%B7%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8ba1\u4ef7\u8d27\u5e01<\/a>\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002Lindert\uff081969\uff09<strong>\u8bb0\u8f7d\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u65b0\u5174\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u59cb\u5f00\u59cb\u7528\u82f1\u9551\u3001\u6cd5\u90ce\u3001\u9a6c\u514b\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u66ff\u6362\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1<\/strong>\u3002\u6bd4\u8d771960\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0c<strong>\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u50a8\u5907\u6c34\u5e73\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e0d\u5230\u5176\u8d1f\u503a\u76845%\uff0cClapham\u5c06\u4e4b\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u91d1\u8584\u819c\u201d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9274\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u672a\u50cf\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u2014\u2014<strong>\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5e76\u672a\u878d\u5165\u901a\u7f29\u4e0e\u8427\u6761<\/strong>\uff1f\u786e\u5b9e\uff0c1914\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7206\u53d1\u540e\uff0c<strong>\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u5d29\u6e83\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4ea4\u6218\u56fd\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e89\u593a\u9ec4\u91d1\u800c\u8fc5\u901f\u51fa\u552e\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6d77\u5916\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u53ef\u5151\u6362\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1.\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e0d\u597d\u2026\u2026\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u610f\u5916\uff08was just an accident waiting to happen\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u4e2a\u610f\u5916\u4e8b\u6545\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2.\u7531\u4e8e\u65e0\u77e5\u3002Lindert\u534a\u8ba4\u771f\u5730\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6570\u636e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u548c\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u5931\u5bdf\uff0c\u4e00\u6218\u524d\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u88ab\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684<strong>\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0d\u8db3\u95ee\u9898\u57281914\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e8630\u5e74<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u82e5\u7edf\u8ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u6ca1\u6709\u628a\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u201c\u5b98\u65b9\u7ed3\u7b97\u4f59\u989d\u201d\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u5f53\u4e2d\u5265\u79bb\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u8c08\u8bba\u8d64\u5b57\uff08Kindleberger\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3.\u7531\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u95f4\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u827e\u80af\u683c\u6797\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u57281890\u5e74\u548c1907\u5e74\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u4e2d\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u592e\u884c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u634d\u536b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>\u5e76\u672a\u62e5\u6709\u50cf\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u9ec4\u91d1\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u6cd5\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37<\/strong>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cFlandreau\uff081997\uff09\u548cBordo\u548cSchwartz\uff081999\uff09\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6551\u52a9\u4fe1\u8d37\u53ea\u662f\u5076\u53d1\u7684\uff0c<strong>\u662f\u5728\u57fa\u4e8e\u5546\u4e1a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u8003\u91cf\u7684\u6761\u6b3e\u4e4b\u4e0b\u4ee5\u53ca<a 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noopener\">\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u548c\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u9645\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u8bbe\u6709\u5206\u652f\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5f71\u54cd\u5168\u7403\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387<\/a>\u3002Lindert\u8bb0\u8f7d\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=2&amp;q=%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E5%88%A9%E7%8E%87&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u94f6\u884c\u5229\u7387<\/a>\u65b9\u9762\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u6838\u5fc3\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u6cd5\u56fd\u4e0e\u5fb7\u56fd\uff09\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u62c9\u52a8\u529b\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=2&amp;q=%E8%89%BE%E8%82%AF%E6%A0%BC%E6%9E%97&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u827e\u80af\u683c\u6797<\/a>\u7684\u8865\u5145\u5219\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u9650\u5236\u9ec4\u91d1\u6d41\u51fa\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u4f18\u5148\u7ea7\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff08\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u672c\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\uff09\uff0c<strong>\u53ea\u56e0\u5f53\u65f6\u82f1\u56fd\u672c\u571f\u7684\u53c2\u653f\u6743\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650<\/strong>\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u524d<strong>\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u727a\u7272\u975e\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u7ef4\u6301\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%8F%AF%E5%85%91%E6%8D%A2%E6%80%A7&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u53ef\u5151\u6362\u6027<\/a><\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=24&amp;q=%E5%A4%AE%E8%A1%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u592e\u884c<\/a>\uff09\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5bf9\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u53ef\u5151\u6362\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u53e4\u5178\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u6210\u529f\u3002<strong>\u8be5\u89c4\u5b9a\u8981\u6c42\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\u4ee5\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u6218\u4e89\u6216\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7b49\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c<strong>\u5426\u5219\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6682\u505c\u5151\u6362\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u6269\u5f20\u6027\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6216\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u6218\u4e89\u6216\u4e25\u91cd\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<strong>\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u6682\u65f6\u4e2d\u6b62\u53ef\u5151\u6362\u6027\uff0c\u53d1\u884c\u7eb8\u5e01\u6216<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E8%B5%A4%E5%AD%97&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57<\/a>\uff0c\u800c\u5f53\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u8fc7\u53bb\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u53ef\u5151\u6362\u6027\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\u539f\u6765\u7684\u5e73\u4ef7<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u652f\u6301\u3002 Bordo\u548cKydland\uff081995\uff09\u57281797\u5e74-1821\u5e74\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u6682\u505c\u5151\u6362\u671f\u95f4\u548c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6682\u505c\u5151\u6362\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4ec5\u5fae\u5c0f\u4e0a\u5347\u4e14\u5b9e\u9645\u73b0\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\uff08\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7a0e\u57fa\uff09\u4ec5\u8f7b\u5fae\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u57281862\u5e74\u81f31879\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5185\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u548c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u73b0\u91d1\u4f59\u989d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002Bordo\u548cMacDonald\uff082005\uff09\u6839\u636e\u9ec4\u91d1\u8f93\u9001\u70b9\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u8bc1\u636e\u6765\u8bc1\u660e\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002 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noopener\">\u827e\u68ee\u8c6a\u5a01\u5c14<\/a>\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c\u90a3\u6837\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684<strong>\u5927\u70ae\u4e0e\u9ec4\u6cb9\u548c\u5bbd\u677e\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=4&amp;q=%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56<\/a><\/strong>\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u8d77\u5230\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u57281965\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u786e\u5b9a\u5176\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u786e\u5b9e\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u987a\u5229\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u9ea6\u91d1\u519c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u672c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u4ed6\u5374\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e861914\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u4fe1\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u56fa\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u5230\u6d6e\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u9650\u5236\u5230\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u4ece\u5b98\u65b9\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u5230\u79c1\u4eba\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ece\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u5230\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u90fd\u672a\u80fd\u4f7f\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5f0f\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u663e\u5f97\u9eef\u6de1\u3002\u968f\u7740\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u90fd\u58f0\u79f0\u6cbf\u88ad\u4e86\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e3b\u9898\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<strong>\uff08\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\uff09\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027<\/strong>\uff1b<strong>\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u5bf9\u7acb<\/strong>\uff1b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5bf9\u4e0a\uff08versus\uff09\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u8c03\u6574\uff1b\u5f3a\u8c03\u603b\u91cf\uff08\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7406\u8bba\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u91cd\u70b9<strong>\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u8fc1\u79fb\u5230\u4e86\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237<\/strong>\u3002\u5b83<strong>\u5047\u5b9a\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u56fd\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u8fd0\u884c\u6301\u7eed\u7684<a 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&#8211;&nbsp;<strong>\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b49\u5f85\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u6545<\/strong>\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51c0\u5916\u503a\u5206\u914d\u4efb\u4f55\u660e\u786e\u7684\u5b9a\u4f4d\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4e0b\u9762\u6240\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=3&amp;q=%E5%A4%96%E5%80%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5916\u503a<\/a>\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\u662f\u5168\u7403\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4e0d\u8db3\u9020\u6210\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u660e\u663e\u4e86\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c<strong>\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u503a\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u901a\u7f29\u548c\u8427\u6761<\/strong>\u3002<strong>\u4f46\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6765\u4fdd\u6301\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u57282015-16\u5e74\u95f4\u5176\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4ece4\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u964d\u52303\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800cM2\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u589e\u957f\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u53d8\u79cd\u4e0e\u539f\u7248\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u4f5c\u7528\u8feb\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd0\u884c\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c<strong>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u5546\u69b7\u7684\u5047\u8bbe<\/strong>\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e5f\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u987a\u5dee\u662f\u5426\u5fc5\u987b\u626d\u8f6c\uff0c\u4ee5\u670d\u52a1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.2\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u5730\u4f4d\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u89d2\u8272\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u6269\u5927\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u89c4\u6a21\u6bd4\u4ece\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u7b49\u57fa\u7840\u53d8\u91cf\u4e2d\u9884\u671f\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u8fd8\u8981\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u89d2\u8272\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u4e4b\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002 Fratianni\uff082012\uff09\u548cSteiner\uff082014\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u4f59\u989d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6c47\u603b\uff0c\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002Chinn\u7b49\u4eba\uff082014\uff09\u5728Chinn\u548cIto\uff082007\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u9762\u677f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fratianni\uff082012\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8d1f\u503a\uff08\u88681\uff09\u3002Cohen\uff082012\uff09\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5219\u58f0\u79f0\uff1a\u201c\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u672a\u5fc5\u8981\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u81ea20\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u5374\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u201c\u3002\u5728\u7b2c1\u548c\u7b2c2\u680f\u4e2d\uff0c<strong>1973-1980\u5e74\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u5904\u4e8e\u76c8\u4f59\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u5b98\u65b9\u8d1f\u503a\u5374\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u30021960\u5e74\uff0c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u8d28\u7591\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\uff01Fratianni\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5173\u8054\u662f\u4e3a\u6b63\u7684\u201d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c<strong>1981\u5e74\u81f31985\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u65f6\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u53ea\u662f\u7565\u6709\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/picx.zhimg.com\/v2-5f208742f8499ff16e876594c1545cdd_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fratianni\u603b\u7ed3\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u4ece\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u52302010\u5e74\uff082014\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5411\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e864.2\u4e07\u4ebf\uff085.3\u4e07\u4ebf\uff09\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u878d\u8d44\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a51\uff05[54\uff05]\u3002 \u201c\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u521b\u9020\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5f00\u652f\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5173\u8054\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bba\u70b9\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\u4e2d\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u540e\u6587\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c<strong>\u5b83\u5047\u5b9a\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907<\/strong>\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c<strong>\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u8ba1\u4ef7\u503a\u52a1\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503a\u52a1\u53c8\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u975e\u5c45\u6c11\u503a\u6743\u4eba\u6301\u6709<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u5fb7\u56fd\u673a\u6784\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u53c8\u5bf9\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u88681\u4e2d\u6807\u6ce8\u4e3aCOFER\u7684\u5907\u5fd8\u680f\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u672c\u680f\u62a5\u544a\u4e86IMF\u6709\u5173\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u6784\u6210\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<strong>1973-2015\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fdBEA\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002\u57fa\u4e8eIMF\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u663e\u793a\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u6bd4BEA\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\u6570\u636e\u76f8\u6bd4\u591a\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u7ea62\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec5\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86BEA\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4f4e\u4f30\uff0c\u800c\u662f<strong>\u5efa\u7acb\u5168\u7403\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u975e\u7f8e\u5c45\u6c11\u5efa\u7acb\u503a\u6743\u6765\u83b7\u5f97<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65af\u5766\u7eb3\uff08Steiner\uff0c2014\uff09\u5b9e\u8bc1\u5730\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u201c\u73b0\u4ee3\u7248\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u201d\uff0c\u5373\u6839\u636e\u54ea\u4e9b\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u72b6\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u524a\u51cf\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u5e10\u6237\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u50cfGagnon\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c1970\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5de5\u5177\u6027\u50a8\u5907\u4e5f\u5728\u589e\u957f\uff08\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%86%85%E7%94%9F%E6%80%A7&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5185\u751f\u6027<\/a>\u95ee\u9898\uff09\uff0c<strong>\u4ed6\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u9700\u6c42\u81f3\u5c11\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7b49\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u3002<\/strong>\u4ece\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u9690\u542b\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6709\u6240\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c<strong>\u5373\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u5165\u7f8e\u5143<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u521a\u624d\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u8fc7\uff0c<strong>\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u4e86\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u52a1\u4e2d<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e00\u7ec4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u76c8\u4f59\u548c\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u6765\u3002 Chinn\u7b49\uff082014\uff09\u5728\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u5931\u8861\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u67e5\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u603b\u662f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f<\/strong>\u3002\u5206\u6790\u907f\u5f00\u4e86\u6807\u51c6\u7684\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u65b9\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5373\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u4e8e\u51b3\u5b9a\u50a8\u84c4\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u548c\u8001\u5e74\u4eba\u7684\u629a\u517b\u6bd4\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u51c0\u5bf9\u5916\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GDP\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u53d1\u5c55\uff08\u7531<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%85%E4%BF%A1%E8%B4%B7&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u56fd\u5185\u4fe1\u8d37<\/a>\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u5f00\u653e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5171\u540c\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic3.zhimg.com\/v2-319c3d2ad688579588c85782b176f93e_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u52302008\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u9519\u4f30\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u56fe\u7684\u5de6\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u548c\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u7ea61\uff05\u7684\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\uff0c\u523020\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e0a\u534a\u53f6\u76842\uff05\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u523080\u5e74\u4ee3\u540e\u534a\u53f6\u7684\u5927\u7ea63\uff05\u3002\u4e0e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%B5%B7%E6%B9%BE%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6d77\u6e7e\u6218\u4e89<\/a>\u6709\u5173\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u57281991-95\u5e74\u95f4\u5c06\u5dee\u8ddd\u7f29\u5c0f\u52302\uff05\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c1996-2005\u5e74\u5dee\u8ddd\u518d\u6b21\u6269\u5927\u52303\uff05\uff0c\u4ec5\u57282006-08\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u518d\u6b21\u7f29\u5c0f\u3002\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u8868\u73b0\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c101\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684R\u5e73\u65b9\u7ea6\u4e3a\u4e00\u534a\uff0c23\u4e2a\u5de5\u4e1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ea6\u4e3a\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u76c8\u4f59\u76f4\u523021\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\uff0c\u800c\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5c06\u8fd9\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u56a3\u5f20\u7684\u7279\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f30\u8ba1\u8bef\u5dee\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5426\u8ddf\u968f\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u589e\u957f\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u5173\u7cfb\u8fc7\u5ea6\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5728\u56fe4\u7684\u53f3\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06Chinn et 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Bergsten\u548cGagnon\uff082017\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u8bae\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u50a8\u5907\u79ef\u7d2f\u8fdb\u884c\u4ee5\u7259\u8fd8\u7259\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.3\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u5426\u5c06\u5f15\u5411\u4e0e\u539f\u7248\u8fd1\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1f\u5373\u56fd\u9645\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff1f\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f53\u7cfb\u8d8a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u548c\u539f\u7248\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u6587\u4e2d\u6211\u4eec\u8d28\u7591\u4e86\u7f8e\u5143<a 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noopener\">\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf<\/a><\/strong>\u3002\u81f3\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c2016\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9707\u52a8\uff0c\u53ea\u56e0\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<strong>\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u56fd\u5185\u8d27\u5e01\u5b58\u91cf\u4e00\u8d77\u589e\u957f\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8bc1\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a<\/strong>\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u548c\u745e\u58eb\uff08\u5360\u4e16\u754c\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u4e00\u534a\uff09\u50a8\u5907\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u548c<strong>\u79ef\u7d2f\u51c0\u5bf9\u5916\u8d1f\u503a<\/strong>\u7684\u540e\u679c\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e24\u5934\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u7528\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c<strong>\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u8d64\u5b57\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u8d44\u4ea7\u72b6\u51b5\u6076\u5316<\/strong>\u3002\u52302015\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u51c0\u503a\u6743\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u6210\u4e86<strong>7.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u51c0\u56fd\u9645\u8d1f\u503a\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u768441\uff05<\/strong>\u3002\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u65e0\u6cd5\u65e0\u9650\u5730\u5c06\u5176\u5bf9\u5916<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%87%80%E8%B4%9F%E5%80%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u51c0\u8d1f\u503a<\/a>\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u52a0GDP\u76841\uff05\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u6a2a\u622a\u9762\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c<strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u627f\u62c5\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u51c0\u503a\u52a1<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u964d\u4f4e\u5176\u4fe1\u7528\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u51c0\u5bf9\u5916\u8d1f\u503a\u8d1f\u62c5\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5927\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4e3b\u6743\u8bc4\u7ea7<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u56fd\u9645\u51c0\u8d1f\u503a\u989d\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u7136\u4ece\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u83b7\u5f97\u51c0\u6295\u8d44\u6536\u76ca\u3002BEA\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd2015\u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6295\u8d44\u51c0\u6536\u5165\u4e3a1930\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u5165\u51c0\u989d\u5360GDP\u76841.1%\uff0c\u5374\u4ee5GDP\u7684-41%\u8d1f\u503a\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840<\/strong>\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff08Heath\uff082007\uff09\uff0cGourinchas 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noopener\">\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8<\/a>\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u4eba\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u87ba\u65cb\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5bf9\u5916\u72b6\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u4efb\u4f55\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u672a\u4e34\u8fd1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bf4\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u672a\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6210\u679c<strong>\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684<\/strong>\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u600e\u6837\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\uff08\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff09\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u7d2f\u79ef\u800c\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdc\u5728\u5929\u8fb9\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4f4e\u6536\u76ca\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63a8\u52a8\u5ba1\u5224\u65e5\u7684\u5230\u6765<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff1a\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\uff1f\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u6216\u5141\u8bb8\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\uff08\u5b58\u5728\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9690\u542b\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2000\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8bba\u6587\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u8d64\u5b57\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u8bbe\u60f3\u7f8e\u5143\u5371\u673a\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u786c\u7740\u9646\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u8bf8\u591a\u5b66\u8005\u5728\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u878d\u8d44\u7ec8\u6b62\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u5c06\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E8%B4%AC%E5%80%BC&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u957f\u671f\u503a\u5238<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=3&amp;q=%E6%94%B6%E7%9B%8A%E7%8E%87&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6536\u76ca\u7387<\/a>\u548c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c<strong>\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d44\u6e90\u53ea\u80fd\u4ece\u975e\u8d38\u6613\u90e8\u95e8\u7f13\u6162\u5730\u6d41\u5411\u8d38\u6613\u90e8\u95e8<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.4\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\uff1a\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6d6e\u52a8\u6c47\u7387\u4e0b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u672c\u4f4d\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u539f\u7248\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u5d29\u6e83\u95ee\u9898<\/strong>\u3002\u539f\u5219\u4e0a\uff0c<strong>\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u6765\u79ef\u7d2f\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907<\/strong>\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c<strong>\u5bf9\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c45\u6c11\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u6743\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8d77\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong>\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u6bd4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u8eab\u72b6\u51b5\uff08\u9690\u542b\u7684\uff09\u8981\u5927\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6216\u8005\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e5f\u4ecd\u4e0d\u660e\u786e<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51c0\u5916\u90e8\u8d1f\u503a\u878d\u8d44\u4e0d\u518d\u90a3\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u4eba\u4e0d\u9002\u3002\u4f46\u539f\u7248\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u60c5\u5f62\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<strong>\u53ea\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u8fdd\u7ea6\u5e76\u6467\u6bc1\u4e3b\u8981\u5168\u7403\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0b\u9ec4\u91d1\/\u7f8e\u5143\u8131\u94a9\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e0d\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bc1\u660e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u4f5c\u7528\u786e\u5b9e\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u6269\u5927\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u4e0e\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684<\/strong>\u30021980\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c<strong>\u603b\u6d41\u91cf\u4fc3\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e3a\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u8fdb\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u878d\u8d44<\/strong>\u3002\u622a\u81f32014\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u50a8\u5907\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u8fbe\u5230\u5168\u7403\u50a8\u5907\u76841\uff05\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u5728\u6301\u7eed\u76c8\u4f59\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4.\u8d22\u653f\u4e0e\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u7248\u672c\u5728\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u66f4\u6d41\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u603b\u662f\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u63a8\u800c\u975e\u66f2\u89e3\uff08it is always understood as an analogy rather than stated as a misinterpretation\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7248\u672c\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u662f\u6307\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5b58\u91cf\u65e0\u6cd5\u65e0\u9650\u671f\u5730\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u507f\u503a\u6210\u672c\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u6700\u521d\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u8d1f\u503a\u5b58\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7248\u672c\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\u7684<strong>\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e34\u754c\u89e6\u53d1\u70b9<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e<strong>\u5f53\u8d22\u653f\u503a\u52a1\u8fbe\u5230\u592a\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u65f6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u4e5f\u76f8\u5f53\u542b\u7cca<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeanne\uff082012\uff09\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86Farhi\u7b49\u4eba\uff082011\uff09\u548cObstfeld\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u201c\u7531\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u50a8\u5907\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u7ec4\u6210\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u6b63\u5728\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9010\u6e10\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5176\u8d22\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u4ee5\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u9700\u6c42[<strong>\u5373\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u9700\u6c42<\/strong>]\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3a\u6ee1\u8db3\u5168\u7403\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=15&amp;q=%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%A7&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6d41\u52a8\u6027<\/a>\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c<strong>\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u957f\u671f\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u7ef4\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u8db3\u591f\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5374\u9700\u8981\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c<u>\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u6096\u8bba<\/u><\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f\u56de\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u5141\u8bb8\u7f8e\u5143\u8d1f\u503a\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9762\u5bf9\u5bf9\u5176\u9ec4\u91d1\u5b58\u91cf\u7684\u6295\u673a\u6027\u653b\u51fb\u65f6\u9009\u62e9\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u548c\u8427\u6761\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002 Farhi\u7b49\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u3002<strong>\u79c1\u4eba\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e3b\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u8bd5\u56fe\u5236\u9020\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e76\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u8d25\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a<\/strong>\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u884c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%9F%AD%E6%9C%9F%E5%80%BA%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u77ed\u671f\u503a\u5238<\/a>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b89\u5168\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\uff0c<strong>\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/strong>\u3002 Caballero\u548cFarhi\uff082013\uff09\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c<strong>\u968f\u7740\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f9b\u6c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u8861\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ef7\u5dee\u4f1a\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u9650\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u5b89\u5168\u9677\u9631<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u4e2a\u5904\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c06\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5728\u5408\u9002\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ea7\u51fa\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002Caballero\u7b49\u4eba\uff082016\u5e74\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%B4%A7%E5%B8%81%E6%88%98%E4%BA%89&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d27\u5e01\u6218\u4e89<\/a>\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u6210\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u53d7\u56f0\u4e8e\u96f6\u4e0b\u9650\u65f6\uff0c\u4e89\u593a\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u4ea7\u51fa\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u4e3b\u52a8\u6743<strong>\uff08as attempts to redistribute the output decline\uff09<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u751f\u4ea7\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u4fb5\u8680\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u624b\u6bb5\u589e\u52a0\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b58\u91cf\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u9650\u5236\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34Hobson\u7684\u6289\u62e9\u2014\u2014<strong>\u5373\u8fdd\u7ea6<\/strong>\u8fd8\u662f<strong>\u610f\u5916\u901a\u80c0\u4ee5\u5c06\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u964d\u81f3\u4e0e\u7a0e\u57fa\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u6c34\u5e73<\/strong>\u3002 Leeper\u548cWalker\uff082011\uff09\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u9884\u8a00\u4e86\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d22\u653f\u7248\u672c\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u5728\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u65b9\u9762\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6ce2\u7279\u65af\uff082012\u5e74\uff09\u662f\u65e9\u671f\u4e14\u9c9c\u89c1\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5c0f\u8282\u5c06\u5c31\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\u5c55\u5f00\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u770b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u770b\u4f9b\u7ed9\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u5c06\u6269\u5c55\u5230Bordo\u548cMcCauley\uff082017\uff09\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7c7b\u6bd4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Farhi\u7b49\u4eba\uff082011\uff09\u5c06<strong>\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u951a\u5b9a\u4e8e\u5176\u50a8\u5907\u79ef\u7d2f<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u5373<strong>\u50a8\u5907\u9700\u8981\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u540d\u4e49GDP\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u800c\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002M2\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u50a8\u5373\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5916\u50a8\u589e\u52a0\u5c06\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u63a8\u5347M2\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u662f\u94c1\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u7ecf\u9a8c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\u786e\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\uff08Some have modelled the demand as if some portion of M2 is by behaviour, if not by law, backed by foreign reserves, that is, safe assets\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u63a8\u8bba\u662f\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5f0f\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u73b0\u5b9e\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91ca\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u79ef\u7d2f\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e00\u76f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u84c4\u610f\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u9632\u6027\u76ee\u7684\u800c\u56e4\u79ef\u50a8\u5907\u3002<strong>\u5982\u679c\u9884\u9632\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8fdb\u53e3\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%9F%AD%E6%9C%9F%E5%80%BA%E5%8A%A1&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u77ed\u671f\u503a\u52a1<\/a>\u6216M2\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u671f\u671b\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u968f\u7740\u540d\u4e49GDP\u800c\u589e\u957f\u5c31\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684<\/strong>\u3002Obstfeld\u7b49\u4eba\uff082009\uff0c2010\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cM2\/GDP\u662f\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5360GDP\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6b64\u5173\u7cfb<strong>\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3aM2\u62b5\u6d88\u5916\u6c47\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u6324\u5151\uff08\u201c\u5916\u50a8\u6d41\u5931\u201d\uff09\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4fdd\u9669<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5916\u50a8\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u662f\u8d27\u5e01\uff08\u6c47\u7387\uff09\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u526f\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u5f97\u5230\u4e862002\u5e74-2011\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u7f8e\u5143\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u652f\u6491\u3002\u5f53\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6545\u4e8b\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u53bb\u5176\u8ffd\u968f\u8005\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u6ca1\u6709M2\u5916\u9003\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u50a8\u5907\u6c34\u5e73\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52302013\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u672a\u507f\u603b\u989d<\/strong>\uff08\u56fe5\uff09\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u98de\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002<strong>\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u4ee5\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u589e\u957f\u5219\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e00\u4f4d\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\/GDP\u57282007-2013\u5e74\u95f4\u4ece57.8%\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e8696.9%<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic1.zhimg.com\/v2-79f9b9042a7c5673559b71209089eb8c_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u60f3\u5230\u56fe5\u4e2d\u7684<strong>\u4e24\u6761\u7ebf\u4f1a\u6536\u655b<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u7ea2\u7ebf\u5c06\u53d8\u5e73\u6536\u655b\u5230\u4e0d\u9ad8\u4e8e4\uff05\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u5e94\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002\u5982\u679c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53<strong>\u6bcf\u5e74\u4ee56\uff05\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u83b7\u5f97\u5b89\u5168\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u77ed\u7f3a<\/strong>\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec72012\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52302016\u5e74\u5e95\u5168\u7403\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u9884\u8ba1\u589e\u957f61\uff05\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9ad8\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u5b98\u65b9\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5c06\u8fbe\u523018\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u7ea612\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u56fe5\u4e0a\u84dd\u7ebf\u7684\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\u5c06\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f13\u6162\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u7ea2\u7ebf\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u4ea4\u6c47\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u56fe1\u548c\u56fe2\u4e2d\u7684\u9b54\u5492\u4e00\u6837\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u7ed3\u679c\u5374\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6ca1\u6709\u5e26\u6765\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u589e\u957f\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u4ece4\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u7f29\u51cf\u81f33\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u57282017\u5e74\u4f01\u7a33\u3002<strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E6%B1%87%E7%8E%87&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387<\/a>\u57282014\u5e74\u521d\u8fbe\u5230\u9876\u5cf0\u540e\u5404\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u9006\u8f6c<\/strong>\u3002McCauley\u548cShu\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f01\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u507f\u8fd8\u5916\u5e01\u503a\u52a1\u4ee5\u53ca\u6e05\u7406\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u7279\u522b\u884c\u653f\u533a\uff0c\u6fb3\u95e8\u7279\u533a\uff0c\u4e2d\u534e\u53f0\u5317\uff0c\u97e9\u56fd\u548c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u5883\u5185\u7684\u5927\u9646\u5883\u5916\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5b58\u6b3e\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u7ed9\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u4fe1\u8d37\u5728\u50a8\u5907\u51cf\u5c11\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/picx.zhimg.com\/v2-f9054cf30eaef88658e9f1398c687839_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u88ab\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=2&amp;q=%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a<\/a>\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe<\/strong>\u548c\u672c\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u6709\u5916\u9003\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9884\u9632\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u957f\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u5468\u671f\u6027\u3002 \u201c\u9700\u6c42\u201d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u7eed\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ece2002\u5e74\u52302011\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u800c2008\u5e74\u5219\u51fa\u73b0\u4e2d\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic1.zhimg.com\/v2-261c9733c9e1c1bd753de5647e6bc496_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u6700\u76f4\u89c2\u8868\u73b0\uff08\u56fe7\uff09\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u672a\u507f\u8fd8\u989d\u5219\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u3002<strong>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ea2\u7ebf\u53d8\u5e73\u7f13\u800c\u84dd\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u4f2a\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u77ed\u7f3a\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c<strong>\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u73b0\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ef7\u5dee\u5f88\u5927<\/strong>\u3002<strong>\u56fe8\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u901a\u884c\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u6389\u671f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e2015\u5e74\u76f8\u540c\u671f\u9650\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002<\/strong>\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0cCaballero\u7b49\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff082017a\uff09<strong>\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ef7\u5dee\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51d1\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u6c42\u7aef\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u8fd9\u79cd\u602a\u4e8b\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08Clark and Mann\uff082016\uff09\uff09\u3002<strong>\u968f\u7740\u5b98\u65b9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8f6c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u5356\u65b9\uff08\u56fe8\u4e2d\u96f6\u7ebf\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\u67f1\u7ebf\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u6389\u671f\u5229\u7387\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u79c1\u4eba\u5229\u7387\u4e0e10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4ef7\u5dee\u6210\u4e86\u8d1f\u7684\u3002\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0eCaballero\u548cFarhi\uff082013\u5e74\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\u5b89\u5168<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8bc1\u5238<\/a>\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u98ce\u9669\u8bc1\u5238<\/a>\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ef7\u5dee\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6269\u5927\uff08Summers\uff082016\uff09\uff09\u76f8\u53cd\u3002 \uff08\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u5199\u4f5c\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f2017\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u6062\u590d\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4e92\u6362\u4ef7\u5dee\u4e5f\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002\uff09\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u8fc7\u5269\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u4e4b\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u589e\u957f\u9700\u8981\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\uff0c<strong>\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9700\u6c42\u5fc5\u7136\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u6700\u7ec8\u53ea\u80fd\u968f\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u589e\u957f\u800c\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u652f\u6491<\/strong>\u3002\u968f\u77402014\u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u800c\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u4e24\u7ebf\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u4ea4\u6c47\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/v2-18c9909fbf1e15b1a353372909524a3f_1440w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4.2\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f9b\u7ed9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4f9b\u7ed9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u76f8\u5f53\u53d7\u9650\u3002<strong>\u79c1\u4eba\u90e8\u95e8\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u7740\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e00\u518d\u5931\u8d25\u5730\u521b\u9020\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u9020\u5e76\u4e14\u786e\u5b9e\u5c1d\u8bd5\u521b\u9020\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c<strong>\u867d\u7136\u6210\u529f\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f53\u5236\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5931\u8d25<\/strong>\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5<strong>\u4ece\u56fd\u5185\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u6216\u56fd\u5916\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u4e2d\u521b\u9020\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c2\u70b9\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a<strong>\u5ffd\u7565<\/strong>\u540e\u6587\u4e2d\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684<strong>\u4f9b\u7ed9\u6e90<\/strong>\u3002 Gorton\u7b49\uff082012\uff09\u548cCarlson\u7b49\uff082016\uff09<strong>\u4ec5\u8bc6\u522b\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u4eba\u7684\uff08\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002Andolfatto\u548cWilliamson\uff082015\u5e74\uff09\u4ec5<strong>\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u673a\u6784\u8bc1\u5238\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u8d44\u4ea7\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238<\/strong>\uff0c\u5e76\u58f0\u79f0\u7f8e\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%9C%BA%E6%9E%84%E5%80%BA%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u673a\u6784\u503a\u5238<\/a>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u53d7\u6258\u7ba1\u5f62\u5f0f\u62c5\u4fdd\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u540e\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u6027 &#8211; \u653f\u5e9c\u62c5\u4fdd\u53ef\u662f\u53d8\u5f97\u660e\u786e\u4e86\uff01 Eichengreen\uff082016\u5e74\uff09\u5c06\u8d85\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u6700\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7684\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u673a\u6784\u503a\uff0c<strong>\u5305\u62ec\u6700\u9ad8\u8bc4\u7ea7\u653f\u5e9c\uff08\u5982\u5fb7\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c<\/a>\uff09\u6240\u652f\u6301\u7684\u673a\u6784<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f<strong>\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5176\u5b98\u65b9\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4e2d\u6301\u6709\u7684\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u503a\u6743<\/strong>\u3002\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u503a\u6743\u4e0d\uff08\u5355\u5355\uff09\u662f\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u6240\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u90fd\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u7f8e\u503a\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7b54\u6848\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u201cNo\u201d\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8003\u8651\u5230<strong>\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u603b\u91cf\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027<\/strong>\u4ee5\u53ca<strong>\u5176\u4e2d\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=8&amp;q=%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a<\/a>\u7684\u6570\u91cf<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b54\u6848\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u7ed9\u51fa\u3002\u56fe\u88689\u5728\u56fe\u88687\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5c40\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff082017\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u6df1\u5165\u6258\u7ba1\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u503a\u5238\u6240\u6709\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9057\u6f0f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u5143\u5b98\u65b9\u5916\u6c47\u6301\u6709\u91cf\uff08\u4f30\u8ba1\uff09\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5b98\u65b9\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u975e\u5e38\u5927<\/strong>\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u673a\u6784\u8bc1\u5238\u548c\u94f6\u884c\u5b58\u6b3e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=9&amp;q=%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%9C%BA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a<\/a>\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c<strong>\u7f3a\u53e3\u6536\u7a84\u4e86<\/strong>\u3002<strong>\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u76847\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc72\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u6ca1\u6709\u7528\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e86\u5462\uff1f\u5728\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u5f81\u7a0e\u6743\u529b\u7f6e\u4e8e\u7531\u79c1\u4eba\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u652f\u6301\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%8A%B5%E6%8A%BC%E8%B4%B7%E6%AC%BE%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238<\/a>\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662fFannie Mae\u548cFreddie Mac\u62c5\u4fdd\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff08Gorton et al\uff082012\uff09\u8ba4\u53ef\uff09\u3002\u57282008\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc1\u5238\u88ab\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6301\u6709\uff08McCauley\u548cRigaudy\uff082011\uff09\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c<strong>\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u5b89\u6392\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u4e0d\u591f\u5065\u5168\uff0c\u9690\u542b\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u652f\u6301\u5fc5\u987b\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u786e<\/strong>\u3002\u592e\u884c\u6301\u7eed\u6301\u6709\u673a\u6784\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u503a\u5238\u3002 \uff08\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u6b63\u5728\u4ea7\u751f\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5f88\u96be\u653e\u5f03\u4efb\u4f55\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u8ba1\u5212\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c<strong>\u8d85\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e76\u4e14\u786e\u5b9e\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002\u867d\u7136\u50cf\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f8\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e9a\u6d32\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c<\/a>\u548c\u7f8e\u6d32\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8d85\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4fe1\u8a89\u826f\u597d\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u652f\u6301\uff0c<strong>\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u53d1\u884c\u8005<\/strong>\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u4eab\u6709\u5fb7\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u62c5\u4fdd\uff0c<strong>\u5e76\u62e5\u6709\u8d85\u8fc71000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u672a\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u5238<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc1\u5238\u7531\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u83b7\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u8f83\u4f4e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08who look to pick up yield vis-\u00e0-vis US Treasury bonds by accepting\uff09\u3002<strong>\u5728\u201c\u57fa\u4e8e\u80a1\u4e1c\u589e\u8d44\u4e49\u52a1\u201d\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=2&amp;q=%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u62c5\u4fdd\uff08\u5fb7\u56fd\u5f00\u53d1\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u548c\u6b21\u56fd\u5bb6\u7a0e\u6536\u6743\u529b\uff08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u5404\u7701\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0cAAA\u7ea7\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u7531\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c45\u6c11\u751f\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002\u6b63\u5982Fahri\u548cMaggiori\uff082017\u5e74\uff09\u6240\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\uff0c<strong>\u53d1\u884c\u50a8\u5907\u56fd\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u9762\u5e76\u4e0d\u4eab\u6709\u5784\u65ad\u6743\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e3a\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\uff0c<strong>\u7279\u522b\u662f\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u751f\u4ea7\u51fa\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4ee5\u524d\uff0c<strong>\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u5927\u7ea6\u6709\u4e03\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u50a8\u5907\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5b58\u653e\u5728\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c<\/strong>\uff08McCauley\u548cRigaudy\uff082011\uff09\uff09\u3002<strong>\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b58\u6b3e\u6bd4\u5b98\u65b9\u6301\u6709\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u66f4\u591a<\/strong>\u3002\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e00\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5012\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1b\u6b64\u5916\uff0c2007-08\u5e74\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E6%81%90%E6%85%8C&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u91d1\u878d\u6050\u614c<\/a>\uff0c\u6270\u4e71\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\uff08Doubtless there was some too-big-to-fail thinking at work, and doubtless the fears,if not the outcomes, of 2007-08 disturbed that thinking.\uff09\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4ece\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u94f6\u884c\u9003\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u77ed\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff08McCauley\u548cMcGuire\uff082009\uff09\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8fd9\u4ee5\u540e\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u9006\u8f6c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5916\u5e01\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5c0f\u5fc3\u8c28\u614e\u5730\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u53d7\u5230\u76d1\u7763\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u62c5\u4fdd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06\u81ea\u8d1f\u76c8\u4e8f\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u5f81\u7a0e\u6743\u529b\u7684\u547c\u5401<\/strong>\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8bbd\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u9175\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u63a5\u7ba1\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u65f6\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%88%BF%E5%88%A9%E7%BE%8E&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u623f\u5229\u7f8e<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E7%BE%8E&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u623f\u5730\u7f8e<\/a>\u7684\u503a\u6743\uff0c\u5b98\u65b9\u50a8\u5907\u7ecf\u7406\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5728\u5168\u9762\u91cd\u5efa\u5176\u5934\u5bf8\u4e4b\u524d\u6b63\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u5bf9\u673a\u6784\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u7f51\u6492\u5f97\u592a\u5bbd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\uff08Jeanne\uff0c2012\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u6240\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u503a\u52a1\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\uff09\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e8e\u79bb\u8c31\u4e86 &#8211; \u5c3d\u7ba1\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cbe\u5fc3\u6784\u5efa\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%AF%81%E5%88%B8%E5%8C%96&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8bc1\u5238\u5316<\/a>\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u4e2d\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5173\u952e\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u673a\u6784\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u8d85\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u673a\u6784\u7f8e\u5143\u503a\u5238\u6216\u94f6\u884c\u5b58\u6b3e\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e25\u91cd\u4f9d\u8d56\u653f\u5e9c\u8d64\u5b57\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=7&amp;q=%E8%9E%8D%E8%B5%84&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u878d\u8d44<\/a><\/strong>\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u653f\u5e9c\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u6216\u6709\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8d22\u653f\u56e0\u7d20\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u5e55\u540e<\/strong>\u3002\u4f46\u663e\u7136\u4e0e\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7248\u672c\u76f8\u6096\uff0c<strong>\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4.3\u5386\u53f2\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff1a\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0e\u5e1d\u56fd<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u5728\u53e4\u5178\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u4e0b\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u901a\u8fc7\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u548c\u82f1\u8054\u90a6\u8bc1\u5238\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u9996\u5148\u8981\u660e\u786e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0e\u5e1d\u56fd\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u53d1\u884c\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u76f8\u5173\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u53d1\u660e\u3002<strong>\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u62c5\u4fdd\u4e5f\u5e76\u975e\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u53d1\u660e<\/strong>\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%A9%AC%E9%87%8C%E5%85%B0%E5%B7%9E&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9a6c\u91cc\u5170\u5dde<\/a>\u65e9\u57281833\u5e74\u5c31\u62c5\u4fdd\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%B7%B4%E5%B0%94%E7%9A%84%E6%91%A9&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5df4\u5c14\u7684\u6469<\/a>\u548c\u8428\u65af\u594e\u6c49\u7eb3\u8bc1\u5238\u76845\uff05\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5e76\u8fc5\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u6ce2\u5170\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u6cd5\u56fd\u4e5f\u6548\u4eff\uff08Irwin\uff082007\uff0c\u7b2c14\u9875\uff09\uff09\u3002\u662f1844\u5e74\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u201c\u6cd5\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5982\u6b64\u6210\u529f\u5f15\u5165\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u201d\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%8D%B0%E5%BA%A6%E9%93%81%E8%B7%AF&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5370\u5ea6\u94c1\u8def<\/a>\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u5148\u4f8b\uff08\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u68ee\uff081955\uff0c\u7b2c180\u9875\uff09\uff09\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6216\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5e1d\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u652f\u6301\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u800c\u8a00\u5e76\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6587\u732e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u548c\u82f1\u8054\u90a6\u503a\u5238\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%88%A9%E5%B7%AE&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5229\u5dee<\/a>\u6bd4\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8981\u4f4e\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4fe1\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u8f83\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c06\u98ce\u9669\u503a\u5238\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u6027\u624b\u6bb5\u4e0e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u73b0\u884c\u505a\u6cd5\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u6837\u5316\u3002\u8d44\u52a9\u5370\u5ea6\u94c1\u8def\u7684\u503a\u5238\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u62c5\u4fdd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7eaa\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u81ea\u7531\u653e\u4efb\u4e3b\u4e49\u975e\u5e38\u80cc\u79bb\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u8bc1\u5238\u201d\u5728\u201c\u5be1\u5987\uff0c\u5f8b\u5e08\uff0c\u795e\u804c\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u8001\u5904\u5973\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\u548c\u9000\u4f11\u519b\u5b98\u201d\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff08MacPherson\uff081955\uff0cp181\uff09\uff09\u3002 Flandreau\uff082013\uff09\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%B4%B4%E7%8E%B0%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d34\u73b0\u653f\u7b56<\/a>\uff0c\u8be5\u653f\u7b56\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\uff08\u91d1\u8fb9\u503a\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u56fd\u5916\u8bc1\u5238\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4e3a\u53d7\u6258\u4eba\u5b9a\u4e49\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7 &#8211; \u4e3a\u5be1\u5987\uff0c\u5b64\u513f\u548c\u6559\u58eb\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e5f\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5404\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u529b\u56fe\u51cf\u8f7b\u9053\u5fb7\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%9D%8E%E5%98%89%E5%9B%BE&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u674e\u5609\u56fe<\/a>\u3001\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u548c\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u6697\u793a\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a<\/strong>\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e<strong>\u5e1d\u56fd\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5c06\u82f1\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4.4\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7248\u672c\uff1a\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7248\u672c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u9700\u6c42\/\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u975e\u5e38\u6b7b\u677f\u3002\u5728\u9700\u6c42\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u8981\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u6765\u652f\u6301\u5176\u56fd\u5185\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6e90\u4e8eMtynarski\u548cTriffin\u7684\u8fc7\u65f6\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c2014\u5e74\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u201c\u50a8\u5907\u5cf0\u503c\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u589e\u957f\u4ecd\u6709\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u57282014\u5e74\u81f32016\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u5b83\u5931\u53bb\u4e861\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u50a8\u5907\u3002\u5728\u4f9b\u5e94\u65b9\u9762\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u63d0\u4f9b\u5b89\u5168\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\u65b9\u9762\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u6301\u5b9e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u8d85\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u56fd\u5916\u7684\u4e3b\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u7701\u7ea7\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u673a\u6784\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u94f6\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u94f6\u884c\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\u5730\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5012\u7684\uff08even banks that are not demonstrably not too big to fail\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4e4b\u524d\u9762\u4e34\u7740<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=3&amp;q=%E6%AE%96%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%B0&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6b96\u6c11\u5730<\/a>\u548c\u82f1\u8054\u90a6\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u4f5c\u4e3a\u91d1\u672c\u4f4d\u4e0b\u7684\u91d1\u8fb9\u503a\u7ade\u4e89\u8005 &#8211; \u8fd9\u4e00\u7ade\u4e89\u5f97\u5230\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u548c\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5.\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u7684\u9057\u8d60<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u7531\u4e00\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e16\u754c\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u6240\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5e76\u672a\u6d88\u5931<\/strong>\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u975e\u7f8e\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u57282008-09\u5e74\u906d\u9047\u7f8e\u5143\u77ed\u7f3a\uff08McGuire\u548cvon Peter\uff082009\uff09\uff09\uff0c<strong>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ee5\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u592e\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u5386\u53f2<\/strong>\uff08Bordo et al\uff082015a\uff09 \uff09\u3002Zhou\uff082009\uff09\u547c\u5401\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u591a\u5143\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u518d\u6b21\u52aa\u529b\u96c6\u4f53\u63a7\u5236\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u3002 Padoa-Schioppa\uff082011\u5e74\uff09\u6240\u8ff0\u7684\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u96be\u9898\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684 &#8211; \u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u771f\u7406\uff1a\u201c<strong>\u53d1\u884c\u56fd<\/strong>\u5185\u90e8\u7684<strong>\u56fd\u5185\u8981\u6c42<\/strong>\u4e0e<strong>\u4f7f\u7528\u8be5\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u8981\u6c42\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u7684\u77db\u76fe<\/strong>\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5bf9Kindleberger\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5f20\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u9738\u6743\u7684\u5185\u5fc3\u538c\u6076\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ed6\u5938\u5927\u4e86\u5176\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u662f\u4ee5\u201c\u91d1\u8584\u819c\u5f62\u5f0f\u201d\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56 &#8211; \u4e00\u573a\u4e3a\u5ec9\u4ef7\u8d44\u91d1\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u6218\u4e89 &#8211; \u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u9664\u5e03\u96f7\u987f\u68ee\u6797\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9010\u6e10\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u672c\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u56fa\u5b9a\u5230\u6d6e\u52a8\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ece\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\u5230\u81ea\u7531\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=6&amp;q=%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8<\/a>\uff0c\u4ece\u5b98\u65b9\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5230\u79c1\u4eba\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u4ece\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u5230\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u62c5\u5fc3\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\uff0c\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u524a\u5f31\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5f0f\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f97\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\/\u9ec4\u91d1\u8054\u7ed3\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u540c\u6837\u8bb0\u4f4f\u4ed6\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=9&amp;q=%E9%80%9A%E8%B4%A7%E8%86%A8%E8%83%80&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=5972499&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%87%91%E8%BE%B9%E5%80%BA%E5%88%B8&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u91d1\u8fb9\u503a\u5238<\/a>\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0e\u7279\u91cc\u82ac\u548c\u90a3\u4e9b\u63d0\u8d77\u4ed6\u7684\u96be\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u4e89\u8bba\u4e0d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4e89\u8bba\u5355\u4e00\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d27\u5e01\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u88ab\u7528\u4f5c\u4ef7\u503c\u50a8\u5b58\uff0c\u8d26\u6237\u5355\u4f4d\u548c\u652f\u4ed8\u624b\u6bb5\u3002 \u201c\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u662f\u5168\u7403\u516c\u76ca\uff0c\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u63d0\u4f9b\u201d\uff08Campanella\uff082010\uff09\uff09\u3002 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rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">http:\/\/Wisburg.com<\/a>\u9996\u53d1\uff0c\u8bd1\u8005\u4e3aMikko\uff08\u6731\u5c18\uff09\u3002\u8bd1\u6587\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u7eb0\u6f0f\u4e0e\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u8bf7\u8bfb\u8005\u89c1\u8c05\u3002\u539f\u6587\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u6e05\u7b97\u94f6\u884c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587\uff1a\u300aTriffin: dilemma or myth?\u300b\uff0c\u5168\u6587\u7ea6\u4e24\u4e07\u5b57\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/34456605\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/34456605<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>*\u6211\u4eec\u4ec5\u5bf9\u8bfb\u8005\u6bd4\u8f83\u719f\u6089\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u8005\u540d\u505a\u4e86\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u4f59\u5219\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u539f\u540d\u3002 *\u611f\u8c22\u718a\u732b\u541b\u660c\u660e\u5bf9\u672c\u8bd1\u6587\u521d\u7a3f\u7684\u901a\u7bc7\u9605\u8bfb\u4e0e\u6307\u6559\u3002 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