{"id":10964,"date":"2025-12-15T10:28:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T02:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=10964"},"modified":"2025-12-15T10:28:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T02:28:40","slug":"%e7%9c%9f%e6%ad%a3%e7%9a%84%e9%ab%98%e6%89%8b%ef%bc%8c%e9%83%bd%e6%98%af%e8%b4%9d%e5%8f%b6%e6%96%af%e4%b8%bb%e4%b9%89%e8%80%85-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=10964","title":{"rendered":"\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9ad8\u624b\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>\u5bfc\u8bfb\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a 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17 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u95f2\u8bdd\u5f88\u6709\u597d\u5904\uff0c\u90a3\u6b63\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%B8%83%E8%8E%B1%E5%85%B9%C2%B7%E5%B8%95%E6%96%AF%E5%8D%A1&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLluIPojrHlhbnCt-W4leaWr-WNoSIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.DUE1ue93Il_fPWJcC2p7yO2hScdaZYC-r0Ef5kksVro&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5e03\u83b1\u5179\u00b7\u5e15\u65af\u5361<\/a>\u548c<a 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1 \u6982\u7387\u8bba\u7684\u8d77\u6e90<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e15\u65af\u5361\u548c\u8d39\u9a6c\u5f53\u65f6\u8003\u8651\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5f53\u7eaf\u7cb9\u9760\u8fd0\u6c14\u7684\u8d4c\u5c40\u4e2d\u65ad\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u6839\u636e\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6bd4\u5206\u6765\u5206\u914d\u8d4c\u91d1\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\uff0c\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e24\u4f4d\u73a9\u5bb6\u5404\u81ea\u8d4c\u4e0a 10 \u6b27\u5143\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u76d8\u629b 11 \u6b21\u5747\u5300\u786c\u5e01\u7136\u540e\u6bd4\u8f83\u6b63\u53cd\u9762\u51fa\u73b0\u6b21\u6570\u7684\u80dc\u8d1f\u3002\u62bc\u6ce8\u5728\u6b21\u6570\u8f83\u591a\uff08\u5373\u51fa\u73b0 6 \u6b21\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u90a3\u4e00\u8fb9\u7684\u73a9\u5bb6\u5c31\u80fd\u628a\u8d4c\u4e0a\u7684\u5168\u90e8 20 \u6b27\u5143\u6536\u5165\u56ca\u4e2d\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u8d4c\u5c40\u56e0\u4e8b\u4e2d\u65ad\u65f6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5206\u662f 4 &#8211; 0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u516c\u5e73\u5730\u5212\u5206\u8d4c\u91d1\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e03\u83b1\u5179\u2027\u5e15\u65af\u5361\uff08Blaise Pascal\uff0c1623\u5e746\u670819\u65e5\u20141662\u5e748\u670819\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c4 &#8211; 0 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de Fermat\uff0c1601\u5e74\u20141665\u5e741\u670812\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u5f8b\u5e08\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5e15\u65af\u5361\u548c\u8d39\u9a6c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5584\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u8d4b\u4e88\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u8840\u8089\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E4%BA%9A%E4%BC%AF%E6%8B%89%E7%BD%95%C2%B7%E6%A3%A3%E8%8E%AB%E5%BC%97&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLkuprkvK_mi4nnvZXCt-ajo-iOq-W8lyIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.AK3fuX6yfsclUNz2-YNPzm9YHp5Ngd7MbOaTp49SepA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e9a\u4f2f\u62c9\u7f55\u00b7\u68e3\u83ab\u5f17<\/a>\u3002\u5728 17 \u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\uff0c\u68e3\u83ab\u5f17\u56e0\u5b97\u6559\u8feb\u5bb3\u9003\u79bb\u6cd5\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u5b66\u4f1a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u667a\u8bc6\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5e87\u62a4\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u827e\u8428\u514b\u00b7\u725b\u987f\u3001\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6c83\u5229\u65af\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6d1b\u514b\u7b49\u4eba\u5171\u5904\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u673a\u4f1a\u8bba\u300b\uff08The Doctrine of Chances\uff09\u7684\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u8457\u4f5c\u3002\u8be5\u4e66\u521d\u6b65\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u4e2d\u6700\u6f02\u4eae\u7684\u5b9a\u7406\u4e4b\u4e00\u2014\u2014\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6781\u9650\u5b9a\u7406\u3002\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9a\u7406\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u5fae\u5c0f\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u968f\u673a\u53d8\u91cf\u9075\u5faa\u600e\u6837\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e9a\u4f2f\u62c9\u7f55\u00b7\u68e3\u83ab\u5f17\uff08Abraham de Moivre\uff0c1667\u5e745\u670826\u65e5\u20141754\u5e7411\u670827\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2 \u795e\u79d8\u7684<a 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class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u8bba\u4e2d\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u68e3\u83ab\u5f17\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u8be5\u95ee\u9898\u56de\u5e94\u4e86\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u4f11\u8c1f\u7684\u54f2\u5b66\u601d\u8003\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u53eb\u4f5c\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5f52\u7eb3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5728\u5df2\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\u539f\u56e0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u52a0\u5c14\u6587\u5b97\u7684\u6559\u4f1a\u7267\u5e08\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u51fa\u573a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86\u3002\u597d\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u78b0\u5230\u96be\u9898\u65f6\u5c31\u4f1a\u505a\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u9996\u5148\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4ed6\u60f3\u8c61\u6709\u4e00\u5f20\u684c\u5b50\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\uff08\u5747\u5300\uff09\u968f\u673a\u5730\u653e\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u767d\u7403\uff0c\u800c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u672c\u4eba\u80cc\u5411\u684c\u5b50\uff0c\u5bf9\u767d\u7403\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u767d\u7403\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5f15\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u5224\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u81f3\u5c11\u7ed9\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\uff08\u82f1\u8bed\uff1aThomas 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\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u8f9e\u4e16\u4e24\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u624d\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u4ee5\u53d1\u8868\uff0c\u8fd9\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%90%86%E6%9F%A5%E5%BE%B7%C2%B7%E6%99%AE%E8%B5%96%E6%96%AF&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLnkIbmn6XlvrfCt-aZrui1luaWryIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.7ARA16EHl5vsQbkTBjRkdBy2Pe-sZwezmZgOnsiiPAs&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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Price\uff0c1723\u5e742\u670823\u65e5\u20141791\u5e744\u670819\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u9053\u5fb7\u54f2\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u7267\u5e08\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3 \u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e4b\u7236<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u79f0\u5f97\u4e0a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7b2c\u4e00\u4eba\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6cd5\u56fd\u4eba<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%9A%AE%E5%9F%83%E5%B0%94%E2%80%93%E8%A5%BF%E8%92%99%C2%B7%E6%8B%89%E6%99%AE%E6%8B%89%E6%96%AF&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLnmq7ln4PlsJTigJPopb_okpnCt-aLieaZruaLieaWryIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.PTZLgUR2cS7hb1keiB8o9rh5l8KlVWUSNncg9vUGsgI&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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c\u00e9leste\uff09\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u5e76\u53d1\u8868\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u672c\u5de8\u8457\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u592a\u9633\u7cfb\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65b0\u89e3\u7b54\u3002\u725b\u987f\u6b64\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u5730\u7403\u548c\u592a\u9633\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u7ec4\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5c3d\u5934\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5fc5\u987b\u5305\u62ec\u6728\u661f\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6c42\u89e3\u3002\u725b\u987f\u6700\u540e\u4e3e\u624b\u6295\u964d\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u4e0a\u5e1d\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u624d\u80fd\u7ed9\u4e88\u8fd9\u4e2a\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5c06\u884c\u661f\u7684\u8f68\u9053\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u4faf\u7235\u76ae\u57c3\u5c14-\u897f\u8499\uff08\u6cd5\u8bed\uff1aPierre-Simon, marquis de Laplace\uff0c1749\u5e743\u670823\u65e5\u20141827\u5e743\u67085\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u88c5\u5907\u4e0a\u4ee5\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u547d\u540d\u7684\u201c\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u53d8\u6362\u201d\u7b49\u65b0\u6570\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u6210\u529f\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u592a\u9633\u7cfb\u5176\u5b9e\u65e0\u987b\u4e0a\u5e1d\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u4e5f\u5f88\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u62ff\u7834\u4ed1\u00b7\u6ce2\u62ff\u5df4\u5728\u9605\u8bfb\u4e86\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u7684\u300a\u5929\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u300b\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u95ee\u4e86\u4e00\u53e5\uff1a\u201c\u725b\u987f\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u4e66\u91cc\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u4e0a\u5e1d\u3002\u6211\u770b\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u540d\u8bcd\u5728\u91cc\u9762\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u3002\u201d\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4e0a\u5e1d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u4e25\u8c28\u5730\u89e3\u51b3\u592a\u9633\u7cfb\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u7edd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8d23\u602a\u4ed6\u3002\u4e4b\u540e\u4e00\u4ee3\u53c8\u4e00\u4ee3\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u96be\u5f97\u8d85\u51fa\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u78d5\u78d5\u7eca\u7eca\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u5e0c\u00b7\u9ad8\u65af\u3001\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7\u5e9e\u52a0\u83b1\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E5%AE%89%E5%BE%B7%E7%83%88%C2%B7%E6%9F%AF%E5%B0%94%E8%8E%AB%E5%93%A5%E6%B4%9B%E5%A4%AB&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLlronlvrfng4jCt-afr-WwlOiOq-WTpea0m-WkqyIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.TGqRNVEtBNzbkDfaPu5-iBmYeiUueufJnZ9xUlr0dNQ&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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1000 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4eba\u3001\u516c\u5143 100 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u53e4\u7f57\u9a6c\u4eba\u3001\u516c\u5143\u524d 200 \u5e74\u7684\u53e4\u5e0c\u814a\u4eba\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u516c\u5143\u524d 1100 \u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6d4b\u91cf\u4eea\u5668\u90fd\u4e0d\u591f\u7cbe\u786e\u3002\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u624b\u5934\u7684\u6570\u636e\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u662f\u600e\u6837\u8fd8\u80fd\u591f\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e9b\u542b\u6709\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u7740\u624b\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4e5f\u662f\u5178\u578b\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5f0f\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u77e5\u9053\u6b64\u524d\u6570\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u4ece\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u2014\u2014\u5929\u4f53\u5728\u5929\u7a7a\u4e2d\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u5728\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5f53\u65f6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u542c\u5230\u6709\u5173\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u98ce\u58f0\uff0c\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u8fd8\u662f\u6b63\u9762\u8fdb\u653b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9006\u6982\u7387\u95ee\u9898\u30021774 \u5e74\uff0c\u62c9\u666e\u62c9\u65af\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u300a\u8bba\u4e8b\u4ef6\u539f\u56e0\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6982\u7387\u300b\uff08M\u00e9moire sur la probabilit\u00e9 des causes par les 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noopener\">\u6069\u5c3c\u683c\u739b\u5bc6\u7801\u673a<\/a>\uff08Enigma\uff09\u3002\u6069\u5c3c\u683c\u739b\u5bc6\u7801\u673a\u4e0e\u6253\u5b57\u673a\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u5c06\u8f93\u5165\u5185\u5bb9\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e76\u6253\u5370\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u66f4\u5999\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u89e3\u5bc6\u67d0\u6bb5\u5bc6\u7801\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5c06\u5b83\u8f93\u5165\u673a\u5668\u5373\u53ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u673a\u5668\u7684\u52a0\u5bc6\u548c\u89e3\u5bc6\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u7eb3\u7cb9\u519b\u961f\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u673a\u5668\u914d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6069\u5c3c\u683c\u739b\u5bc6\u7801\u673a\u5728\u51fa\u5382\u65f6\u5c31\u5305\u542b\u4e0a\u767e\u4e07\u4e2a\u914d\u7f6e\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u7eb3\u7cb9\u519b\u961f\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u5668\u8fd8\u6709\u989d\u5916\u7684\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u5927\u6269\u5145\u6069\u5c3c\u683c\u739b\u5bc6\u7801\u673a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u914d\u7f6e\u603b\u6570\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6709\u6570\u4e07\u5146\u79cd\u3002\u8981\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u914d\u7f6e\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u75f4\u5fc3\u5984\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6e29\u65af\u987f\u00b7\u4e18\u5409\u5c14\u7b49\u4eba\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u9010\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u6570\u5b66\u5c06\u662f\u7834\u8bd1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u654c\u65b9\u5bc6\u7801\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002\u5728\u5e03\u83b1\u5207\u5229\u56ed\uff0c\u4e00\u652f\u68a6\u4e4b\u961f\u5c31\u6b64\u7ed3\u6210\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7279\u6e29\u3001\u6208\u767b\u00b7\u97e6\u5c14\u4ec0\u66fc\u3001\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u6c64\u7279\u3001\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u5854\u7279\u3001\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u00b7\u7ebd\u66fc\u3001\u6770\u514b\u00b7\u53e4\u5fb7\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1f\u5927\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%89%BE%E4%BC%A6%C2%B7%E5%9B%BE%E7%81%B5&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLoib7kvKbCt-WbvueBtSIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.NbQPbWIuMedrjKDB8J_HH_YP6gfoa_jYO2T4xcu7Ukg&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u827e\u4f26\u00b7\u56fe\u7075<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u827e\u4f26\u00b7\u9ea6\u5e2d\u68ee\u00b7\u56fe\u7075\uff08Alan Mathison Turing\uff0c1912\u5e746\u670823\u65e5\u20141954\u5e746\u67087\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u903b\u8f91\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u5bc6\u7801\u5206\u6790\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7406\u8bba\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u6a21\u4eff\u6e38\u620f\u300b\uff08Imitation 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href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=260573866&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E4%BC%A6%E7%BA%B3%E5%BE%B7%C2%B7%E8%90%A8%E7%BB%B4%E5%A5%87&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU5MzI4ODIsInEiOiLkvKbnurPlvrfCt-iQqOe7tOWlhyIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI2MDU3Mzg2NiwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.njIO368QYn7AxFrpc72uePtzVy9nTnZ8W9kTlYuf-wU&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4f26\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u8428\u7ef4\u5947<\/a>\u5f00\u59cb\u5426\u5b9a\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3002\u4e0e\u4e4b\u76f8\u5bf9\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u662f\u67ef\u5c14\u83ab\u54e5\u6d1b\u592b\u516c\u7406\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u8bba\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u6709\u7740\u575a\u5b9e\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6b64\u5916\u5728 1958 \u5e74\uff0c\u6797\u5fb7\u5229\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u63a8\u65ad\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u6982\u7387\u63a8\u65ad\u65b9\u6cd5\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u6797\u5fb7\u5229\u6562\u4e8e\u62d2\u7edd\u5411\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u4fef\u9996\u79f0\u81e3\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u5927\u83b7\u5168\u80dc\u540e\uff0c\u6797\u5fb7\u5229\u6210\u4e86\u5021\u5bfc\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5206\u5b50\uff0c\u5ba3\u79f0\u6240\u6709\u7edf\u8ba1\u90fd\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u51b5\u6216\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u6570\u4e2a\u504f\u5411\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8f6e\u5230\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728 1954 \u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\u300b\uff08The Foundations of Statistics\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u8be0\u91ca\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8fa9\u62a4\u3002\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u5f53\u4f5c\u201c\u6551\u4e16\u4e3b\u201d\u3002\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90a3\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u4f17\u591a\u63a8\u7406\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u5c31\u662f\u6839\u636e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u6240\u6709\u59a5\u534f\u90fd\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\uff08\u4f46\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u5b9e\u7528\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff09\u3002\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u5bf9\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u6709\u7740\u5b97\u6559\u822c\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\uff08Leonard J. Savage, 1917-1971\uff09\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=https%3A\/\/www.hetwebsite.net\/het\/profiles\/savage.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.hetwebsite.net\/het\/profiles\/savage.htm<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u95ee\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7ed9\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u6027\u5e26\u6765\u7591\u95ee\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u6027\u5c31\u662f\u79d1\u5b66\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u4e2d\u6d8c\u73b0\u51fa\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u5f53\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5171\u8bc6\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u4e5f\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u5b9a\u4e49\u5ba2\u89c2\u6027\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u4e0d\u5ba2\u89c2\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u603b\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u5177\u4f53\u65b9\u6cd5\u52a0\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u5316\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u63a8\u65ad\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u201c\u4e00\u79cd\u987d\u56fa\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u60f3\u714e\u51fa\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u714e\u86cb\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u60f3\u6253\u7834\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7684\u9e21\u86cb\u201d\u3002\u53ef\u53f9\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u50cf\u8d1d\u5229\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6b63\u5f53\u63a8\u5e7f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u5982\u706b\u5982\u837c\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u8428\u7ef4\u5947\u6b7b\u4e8e\u4e86\u5fc3\u8840\u7ba1\u75be\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>7 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\u5e74\uff0c\u67d0\u4f4d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8be2\u95ee\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u97e6\u5c14\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u7b97\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4f4d\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u597d\u5b66\u751f\uff0c\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u97e6\u5c14\u8fd9\u6837\u56de\u7b54\uff1a\u201c\u554a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u5bf9\u7531\u53ef\u91cd\u590d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u957f\u5e8f\u5217\u6709\u6548\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u663e\u7136\u662f\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6982\u7387\u8981\u4e48\u662f 0\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f 1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e94\u5e74\u4e4b\u5185\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u3002\u201d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8fd9\u6837\u56de\u7b54\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u5c31\u6015\u4f60\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u3002\u6211\u8ddf\u53e6\u5916\u51e0\u4f4d\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8c08\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\u3002\u201d\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u7edf\u8ba1\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u4e0a\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u97e6\u5c14\u5f52\u987a\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6234\u7ef4\u00b7\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u97e6\u5c14\uff08David Harold Blackwell\uff0c1919\u5e744\u670824\u65e5\u20142010\u5e747\u67088\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u540d\u8a89\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u62c9\u5965-\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u97e6\u5c14\u5b9a\u7406\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u56fe\u6e90\uff1a\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u70df\u8349\u5728\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u3002\u5f00\u5c55\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u82f1\u96c4\u662f\u6770\u5c14\u59c6\u00b7\u79d1\u6069\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u3002\u79d1\u6069\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u9996\u5148\u9047\u5230\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u53cd\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5185\u66fc\u548c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u731b\u70c8\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u8d23\u79d1\u6069\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u7f3a\u5c11\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u65b9\u6cd5\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\u548c\u91cd\u590d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u70df\u8349\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5426\u5b9a\u70df\u8349\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u3002\u4ed6\u751a\u81f3\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff1a\u80ba\u764c\u4f1a\u4f7f\u4eba\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5438\u70df\uff01\u6b63\u5982\u6797\u5fb7\u5229\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u6d41\u901d\uff0c\u79d1\u6069\u83f2\u5c14\u5fb7\u6700\u540e\u8fd8\u662f\u83b7\u80dc\u4e86\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u5438\u70df\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u80ba\u764c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5371\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u56fe\u57fa\u5219\u5c06\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u30021960 \u5e74\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u677e\u4e0e\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u5f97\u7968\u4e0d\u76f8\u4e0a\u4e0b\uff0c\u80dc\u8d1f\u96be\u5206\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u6562\u5ba3\u5e03\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5728\u51cc\u6668\u4e24\u70b9\uff0c\u56fe\u57fa\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\uff08NBC\uff09\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u5f00\u4e86\u7eff\u706f\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5ba3\u5e03\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u4f46\u76f4\u5230\u65e9\u4e0a 8 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\u5e74\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u4eae\u773c\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u540e\u4f1a\u518d\u8c08\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u9047\u5230\u7a00\u6709\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u65f6\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bfb\u627e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u3002\u8bfa\u66fc\u00b7\u62c9\u65af\u7a46\u68ee\u6b63\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ee5\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7f6e\u4fe1\u5ea6\u4e3a\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e86\u6838\u7535\u7ad9\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff1b\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u5219\u8058\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u5229\u7528\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u706b\u7bad\u53d1\u5c04\u51fa\u73b0\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e09\u5341\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8fd9\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u81ea\u5df1\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5341\u4e07\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u8d34\u8fd1\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u76f4\u5230 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u4ecd\u7136\u7f55\u89c1\u4e14\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u7406\u7531\u7684\u3002\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5f0f\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65e2\u5197\u957f\u53c8\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u8303\u7574\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u6ca1\u6709\u95ed\u5f0f\u7684\u79ef\u5206\u3002\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u4f3c\u4e4e\u524d\u9014\u5927\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5b9e\u7528\u3002\u4f7f\u76f8\u5173\u8ba1\u7b97\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u3001\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5e94\u7528\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6574\u4f53\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u8fd8\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u80dc\u5229\u4e86\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>8 \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u80dc\u5229<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>20 \u4e16\u7eaa 60 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u96f7\u00b7\u6240\u7f57\u95e8\u8bfa\u592b\u5c06\u56fe\u7075\u7684\u53ef\u8ba1\u7b97\u6027\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u524d\u8eab\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4eba\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6240\u7f57\u95e8\u8bfa\u592b\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u9891\u7387\u4e3b\u4e49\u5927\u5e08\u6000\u7740\u6df1\u6df1\u7684\u654c\u610f\uff1a\u201c\u79d1\u5b66\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u7f6a\u6076\u2026\u2026\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u662f\u2018\u79d1\u5b66\u2019\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5927\u5e08\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u4ed6\u5e0c\u671b\u8ba9\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6210\u4e3a\u2018\u4e00\u95e8\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u2019\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u8131\u79bb\u5176\u4e2d\u66fe\u5b58\u5728\u8fc7\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8d39\u5e0c\u5c14\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u72af\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u5bf9\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u8fd9\u79cd\u7834\u574f\u4e2d\u6062\u590d\u8fc7\u6765\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u592a\u6162\u4e86\u3002\u201d\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6240\u7f57\u95e8\u8bfa\u592b\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u5904\u4e8e\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u673a\u5668\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u6cd5\u5f00\u5c55\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u752b\u4e00\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u4e3b\u4e49\u5c31\u7ec8\u4e8e\u7b49\u5230\u4e86\u795e\u5723\u7684\u91cd\u751f\u3002\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u83ab\u65af\u7279\u52d2\u6b63\u662f\u6700\u521d\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u96be\u9898\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4ece 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08Monte Carlo\uff09\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u94fe\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08Markov &#8211; Chain &#8211; Monte &#8211; Carlo\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0 MCMC\uff09\uff0c\u7ed9\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5e94\u7528\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u9769\u547d\u3002\u4e0e\u5176\u7cbe\u786e\u8ba1\u7b97\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e0\u6cd5\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\u8868\u8fbe\u7684\u79ef\u5206\uff0c\u8499\u7279\u5361\u7f57\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u62bd\u6837\u8fdb\u884c\u79ef\u5206\u7684\u8fd1\u4f3c\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e3a\u5409\u5e03\u65af\u62bd\u6837\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u63a8\u65ad\uff08Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0 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Kruschke\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bd1\u8005\uff1a\u738b\u82b3<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1.\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u5206\u6821\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u7279\u7f57\u5170\u7814\u7a76\u5956\u83b7\u5f97\u8005\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5927\u5b66\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u8111\u79d1\u5b66\u540d\u8a89\u6559\u6388\u3001\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7K. \u514b\u9c81\u65bd\u514b\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u8fd125\u5e74\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6559\u5b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\u603b\u7ed3\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2.\u6781\u4f73\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u5165\u95e8\u4e66\u7c4d\uff01\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u5728\u5165\u95e8\u65f6\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u672c\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3.\u539f\u8457\u8c46\u74e3\u9ad8\u8fbe9.4\u5206\uff01\u5168\u9762\u8986\u76d6\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u53ef\u8bfb\u6027\u5f3a\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e 2025-07-19 22:16\u30fb\u5317\u4eac<br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/1930028134704579295\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/1930028134704579295<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bfc\u8bfb\uff1a \u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u4e00\u65e6\u4e0e\u7b97\u6cd5\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e00\u5957\u67af\u71e5\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u7406\u8bba\u6216\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8bba\uff0c\u800c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u5e94\u7528\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5b9d\u5e93\uff0c\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u4f17\u591a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10964"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10964\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}