{"id":10947,"date":"2025-12-14T20:44:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T12:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=10947"},"modified":"2025-12-14T20:44:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T12:44:32","slug":"%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e6%9c%80%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e4%ba%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/?p=10947","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u8d44\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u300a\u6295\u8d44\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u300b\uff08<em>The Most Important Thing Illuminated<\/em>\uff09\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%9C%8D%E5%8D%8E%E5%BE%B7%C2%B7%E9%A9%AC%E5%85%8B%E6%96%AF&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLpnI3ljY7lvrfCt-mprOWFi-aWryIsInpoaWRhX3NvdXJjZSI6ImVudGl0eSIsImNvbnRlbnRfaWQiOjI1NzgzNjY2NSwiY29udGVudF90eXBlIjoiQXJ0aWNsZSIsIm1hdGNoX29yZGVyIjoxLCJ6ZF90b2tlbiI6bnVsbH0.BCZxy9V8saJDG1_wHTQK7QUuqjkKIEO1SwqzdzPN6BY&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af<\/a>\uff08Howard Marks\uff09\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6295\u8d44\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6295\u8d44\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u7684\u7cbe\u534e\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4ee5\u4f5c\u8005\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u68b3\u7406\u4e86\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5f3a\u8c03<strong>\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236<\/strong>\u548c<strong>\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong>\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u62c6\u89e3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1. \u6838\u5fc3\u7406\u5ff5\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E5%B1%82%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLnrKzkuozlsYLmgJ3nu7QiLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.knto2katGU6xNXqCt-U4gGB9xRLccTlW4yKFOlRfmUQ&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4<\/a>\uff08Second-Level Thinking\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong>\uff1a\u7b80\u5355\u76f4\u89c9\uff08\u5982\u201c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u597d\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4e70\u5165\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong>\uff1a\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u5e02\u573a\u5171\u8bc6\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff08\u5982\u201c\u867d\u7136\u516c\u53f8\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\uff1f\u201d\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5173\u952e\u533a\u522b<\/strong>\uff1a<br>\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u53ea\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u624d\u80fd\u521b\u9020\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a<br>2000\u5e74\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u770b\u5230\u201c\u79d1\u6280\u6539\u53d8\u672a\u6765\u201d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u8d28\u7591\u201c\u4f30\u503c\u662f\u5426\u900f\u652f\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u4e50\u89c2\u9884\u671f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2. \u6295\u8d44\u768418\u4ef6\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff081\uff09\u7406\u89e3\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u6548\u6027\u53ca\u5176\u5c40\u9650<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5e02\u573a\u957f\u671f\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u77ed\u671f\u5e38\u56e0\u60c5\u7eea\u6ce2\u52a8\u800c\u5931\u6548\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u6765\u6e90<\/strong>\uff1a\u5229\u7528\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u6548\u6027\uff08\u5982\u6050\u614c\u6027\u629b\u552e\u6216\u72c2\u70ed\u8ffd\u6da8\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff082\uff09\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201c\u4e70\u597d\u7684\u4e0d\u5982\u4e70\u5f97\u597d\u201d\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u4f18\u8d28\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e8f\u635f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u9884\u7559\u5bb9\u9519\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff083\uff09\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u672c\u8d28<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u98ce\u9669\u2260\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u662f<strong>\u672c\u91d1\u6c38\u4e45\u635f\u5931\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u2260\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca<\/strong>\uff1a\u771f\u6b63\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5e94\u8ffd\u6c42\u201c\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u201d\uff08\u5982\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u53e3\u53ef\u4e50\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff084\uff09<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%80%86%E5%90%91%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLpgIblkJHmipXotYQiLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.CnvBRZwlszQzM-rJKMDlKlLqDJNjPLyhLbC0w5v1RyU&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8d44<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u9519\u8bef\u201d\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u673a\u4f1a\uff08\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u6781\u5ea6\u60b2\u89c2\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u96be\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u5bf9\u6297\u4eba\u6027\uff0c\u9700\u72ec\u7acb\u5224\u65ad\u548c\u8010\u5fc3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff085\uff09\u5468\u671f\u4e0e<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%92%9F%E6%91%86%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLpkp_mkYbnkIborroiLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.yMwgH3vEaC7xngJZfc32XkM6Yzvj2V_9UlNwhUkVekA&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u949f\u6446\u7406\u8bba<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u60b2\u89c2\u201d\u95f4\u6446\u52a8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5e94\u7528<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u949f\u6446\u6781\u7aef\u70b9\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\uff08\u5982\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u706d\u540e\u4e70\u5165\u4f18\u8d28\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff086\uff09\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u673a\u4f1a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201c\u51fb\u7403\u533a\u201d\u7406\u8bba\uff1a\u53ea\u6295\u8d44\u9ad8\u80dc\u7387\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u65f6\u95f4\u4fdd\u6301\u89c2\u671b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E6%A9%A1%E6%A0%91%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLmqaHmoJHotYTmnKwiLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.6mVohZs0DvNMvWmD_TdSzhrRWgk5AaUd05IspnCQwB4&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6a61\u6811\u8d44\u672c<\/a>\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u50a8\u5907\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6f6e\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e70\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff087\uff09\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u6295\u8d44<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u907f\u514d\u6760\u6746\u3001\u5206\u6563\u6301\u4ed3\u3001\u6ce8\u91cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u76ee\u6807<\/strong>\uff1a\u5148\u6c42\u4e0d\u8d25\uff0c\u518d\u6c42\u80dc\uff08\u201c\u5c11\u8f93\u94b1\u201d\u6bd4\u201c\u591a\u8d5a\u94b1\u201d\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\uff088\uff09\u907f\u514d\u9884\u6d4b\u5b8f\u89c2<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a7\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u5fae\u89c2\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u540d\u8a00<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u540c\u9760\u540e\u89c6\u955c\u5f00\u8f66\uff0c\u800c\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u63a2\u7167\u706f\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>9. \u5408\u7406\u9884\u671f\uff08Controlling Expectations\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6838\u5fc3<\/strong>\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u6709\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u5e7b\u60f3\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u5e74\u531615%\u5df2\u5c5e\u9876\u7ea7\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a2000\u5e74\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9884\u671f\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5e74\u6da850%\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u706d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u540d\u8a00<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u8d2a\u5a6a\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u5c06\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u89c6\u4e3a\u5e38\u6001\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>10. \u91cd\u89c6\u8fd0\u6c14\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\uff08Respecting Luck &amp; Probability\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u53d7\u8fd0\u6c14\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u9760\u6982\u7387\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5e94\u7528<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0d\u56e0\u4e00\u6b21\u6210\u529f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u56e0\u77ed\u671f\u5931\u8d25\u5426\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4f8b\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff1a\u67d0\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u8fde\u7eed3\u5e74\u8dd1\u8d62\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>11. \u907f\u514d\u9519\u8bef\uff08Avoiding Pitfalls\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5e38\u89c1\u9519\u8bef<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ddf\u98ce\u8ffd\u6da8\u3001\u5ffd\u89c6\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u3001\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E9%95%BF%E6%9C%9F%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLplb_mnJ_otYTmnKznrqHnkIblhazlj7giLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.1NXcQsPslh1p6viM2N1hSCmJTqsSMASaj97x4v1w1Uw&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8<\/a>\uff08LTCM\uff09\u56e0\u9ad8\u6760\u6746\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u5931\u6548\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u5efa\u8bae<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u5c11\u72af\u9519\u6bd4\u591a\u6b63\u786e\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u6b21\u5927\u9519\u53ef\u80fd\u6bc1\u6389\u5341\u5e74\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>12. \u591a\u5143\u5316\u4e0e\u96c6\u4e2d\uff08Diversification vs. Concentration\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5e73\u8861<\/strong>\uff1a\u9002\u5ea6\u5206\u6563\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5206\u6563\u4f1a\u7a00\u91ca\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u539f\u5219<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u666e\u901a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff1a\u5206\u6563\u81f35-10\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff1a\u6df1\u5ea6\u7814\u7a76\u540e\u53ef\u96c6\u4e2d\u6301\u4ed3\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4f8b\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff1a\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u91cd\u4ed3\u82f9\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u7ec4\u5408\u4ecd\u4fdd\u7559\u5176\u4ed6\u6838\u5fc3\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>13. \u5173\u6ce8\u5386\u53f2\uff08Studying History\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4ef7\u503c<\/strong>\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u867d\u4e0d\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u4f46\u5468\u671f\u89c4\u5f8b\u548c\u4eba\u6027\u672c\u8d28\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a2008\u5e74\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e0e1929\u5e74\u5927\u8427\u6761\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u6ce2\u52a8\u9ad8\u5ea6\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u63d0\u9192<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u5fd8\u8bb0\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4eba\u6ce8\u5b9a\u91cd\u590d\u5176\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4f46\u6b7b\u8bb0\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u9519\u8fc7\u65b0\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>14. \u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u6295\u8d44\uff08Defensive Investing\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7b56\u7565<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9ad8\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\uff1a\u53ea\u4e70\u4ef7\u683c\u663e\u8457\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f4e\u6760\u6746\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u8feb\u5e73\u4ed3\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6301\u6709\u73b0\u91d1\uff1a\u4fdd\u7559\u5e94\u5bf9\u5371\u673a\u7684\u201c\u5f39\u836f\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6a61\u6811\u8d44\u672c\u57282007\u5e74\u9884\u755930%\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u6284\u5e95\u4e0d\u826f\u503a\u52a1\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>15. \u907f\u514d\u9884\u6d4b\u5b8f\u89c2\uff08Avoiding Macro Forecasts\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u903b\u8f91<\/strong>\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\uff08\u5982GDP\u3001\u5229\u7387\uff09\u590d\u6742\u591a\u53d8\uff0c\u805a\u7126\u5fae\u89c2\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u89c2\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u6295\u8d44\u5e94\u50cf\u533b\u751f\u6cbb\u75c5\u2014\u2014\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2a\u4f53\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff08\u5b8f\u89c2\uff09\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4f8b\u8bc1<\/strong>\uff1a2020\u5e74\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e13\u6ce8\u4f01\u4e1a\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u800c\u975e\u9884\u6d4b\u75ab\u60c5\u65f6\u957f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>16. \u7406\u89e3\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\uff08Asymmetric Risk-Return\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u7406\u60f3\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e0b\u884c\u6709\u9650\uff08\u5982\u4e8f\u635f10%\uff09\uff0c\u4e0a\u884c\u65e0\u9650\uff08\u5982\u76c8\u5229100%\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5de5\u5177<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5982\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u56f0\u5883\u503a\u52a1\u6295\u8d44\uff08\u5982\u7834\u4ea7\u91cd\u7ec4\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u6298\u4ef7\u503a\u5238\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6848\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff1a2020\u5e74\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8d27\u66b4\u8dcc\u81f3\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u673a\u6784\u901a\u8fc7\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u9501\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>17. \u91cd\u89c6\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\uff08Mastering Psychology\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4eba\u6027\u5f31\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u8d2a\u5a6a\u3001\u6050\u60e7\u3001\u4ece\u4f17\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5e94\u5bf9<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5236\u5b9a\u6295\u8d44\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff08\u5982\u6b62\u635f\u7ebf\u3001\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0a\u9650\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5b9a\u671f\u590d\u76d8\u9519\u8bef\uff08\u5982\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u5fd7\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff1a<br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhida.zhihu.com\/search?content_id=257836665&amp;content_type=Article&amp;match_order=1&amp;q=%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%BA%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%AD%A6&amp;zd_token=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJ6aGlkYV9zZXJ2ZXIiLCJleHAiOjE3NjU4ODg4ODYsInEiOiLooYzkuLrph5Hono3lraYiLCJ6aGlkYV9zb3VyY2UiOiJlbnRpdHkiLCJjb250ZW50X2lkIjoyNTc4MzY2NjUsImNvbnRlbnRfdHlwZSI6IkFydGljbGUiLCJtYXRjaF9vcmRlciI6MSwiemRfdG9rZW4iOm51bGx9.ISf0MnZIDfM7rONKiX2B3GZdK3wWg9tCdm3_ymD4JX4&amp;zhida_source=entity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66<\/a>\u4e2d\u7684\u201c\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u201d\u7406\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u4e8f\u635f1\u4e07\u5143\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u8fdc\u8d85\u76c8\u52291\u4e07\u5143\u7684\u5feb\u4e50\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>18. \u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u900a\uff08Humility\uff09<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6838\u5fc3<\/strong>\uff1a\u627f\u8ba4\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6c38\u8fdc\u6bd4\u4e2a\u4eba\u66f4\u201c\u806a\u660e\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b9e\u8df5<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u9886\u57df\u8bf4\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u9519\u8bef\u540e\u53ca\u65f6\u4fee\u6b63\u800c\u975e\u56fa\u6267\u5df1\u89c1\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u5fe0\u544a<\/strong>\uff1a \u201c\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e0e\u50b2\u6162\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u7ebf\u4e4b\u9694\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u57fa\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u6e90\u4e8e\u65e0\u77e5\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a18\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u5185\u5728\u903b\u8f91<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u7406\u89e3\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\uff1a\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5468\u671f\u5224\u65ad\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u5206\u6563\u4e0e\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u6267\u884c\u5c42\u9762<\/strong>\uff1a\u8010\u5fc3\u3001\u9632\u5fa1\u3001\u907f\u514d\u9519\u8bef\u3001\u4fdd\u6301\u8c26\u900a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd918\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u7406\u5ff5\u5230\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u59cb\u7ec8\u56f4\u7ed5&nbsp;<strong>\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<strong>\u201c\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\u201d<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5355\u7eaf\u8ffd\u6c42\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u4e66\u4e2d\u6240\u8a00\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u827a\u672f\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u800c\u975e\u8ffd\u9010\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u827a\u672f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3. \u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th>\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7ef4\u5ea6<\/th><th>\u300a\u806a\u660e\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u300b\uff08\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\uff09<\/th><th>\u300a\u6295\u8d44\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u300b\uff08\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\uff09<\/th><\/tr><tr><td>\u6838\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3<\/td><td>\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645<\/td><td>\u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u3001\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8d44<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u65f6\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f<\/td><td>\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e3a\u91cd<\/td><td>\u91d1\u878d\u5316\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba<\/td><td>\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\uff08\u5982\u51c0\u6d41\u52a8\u8d44\u4ea7\u7b56\u7565\uff09<\/td><td>\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u5468\u671f\u5224\u65ad\uff09<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u98ce\u9669\u89c2<\/td><td>\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8d44\u964d\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669<\/td><td>\u7406\u89e3\u98ce\u9669\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u4e3b\u52a8\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>4. \u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\u89e3\u6790<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6848\u4f8b1\uff1a2008\u5e74\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u573a\u5171\u8bc6<\/strong>\uff1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u62b5\u62bc\u503a\u5238\uff08MBS\uff09\u98ce\u9669\u4f4e\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4<\/strong>\uff1a\u5e95\u5c42\u8d37\u6b3e\u8d28\u91cf\u6076\u5316\u3001\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u5931\u771f\u3001\u6760\u6746\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong>\uff1a\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u63d0\u524d\u51cf\u6301\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u540e\u6284\u5e95\u4e0d\u826f\u8d44\u4ea7\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6848\u4f8b2\uff1a2020\u5e74\u75ab\u60c5\u51b2\u51fb<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u573a\u6050\u614c\u671f<\/strong>\uff1a\u7f8e\u80a1\u66b4\u8dcc30%\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u552e\u4e00\u5207\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9006\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c<\/strong>\uff1a\u589e\u6301\u88ab\u9519\u6740\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u79d1\u6280\u9f99\u5934\uff08\u5982\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u3001\u82f9\u679c\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>5. \u5c40\u9650\u6027\u4e89\u8bae<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u9002\u7528\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u9700\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u91d1\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u666e\u901a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6613\u88ab\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u51fb\u6e83\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2a\u4eba\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u91cf\u5316\u6807\u51c6\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u5316<\/strong>\uff1a\u968f\u7740\u7b97\u6cd5\u4ea4\u6613\u666e\u53ca\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u6548\u6027\u7a97\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u7f29\u77ed\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u603b\u7ed3\uff1a\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u54f2\u5b66<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff1a<br><strong>\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca = \u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c42\u601d\u7ef4 + \u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645 + \u9006\u5411\u5e03\u5c40 + \u98ce\u9669\u63a7\u5236<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5173\u952e\u63d0\u9192<\/strong>\uff1a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u201c\u8f93\u5bb6\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u201d\uff0c\u5c11\u72af\u9519\u6bd4\u591a\u53d6\u80dc\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7406\u89e3\u201c\u5df2\u77e5\u4e0e\u672a\u77e5\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u5bfb\u627e\u6982\u7387\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7ec8\u6781\u76ee\u6807<\/strong>\uff1a<br>\u901a\u8fc7\u957f\u671f\u590d\u5229\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u201c\u718a\u5e02\u5c11\u4e8f\uff0c\u725b\u5e02\u8ddf\u4e0a\u201d\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u201c\u5feb\u901f\u81f4\u5bcc\u6307\u5357\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u610f\u8bc6\u4e0e\u51b3\u7b56\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u9002\u5408\u53cd\u590d\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u72c2\u70ed\u6216\u6050\u614c\u65f6\u91cd\u8bfb\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u6e05\u9192\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e 2025-05-16 22:15\u30fb\u6d59\u6c5f<br><a href=\"https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/1906835040379306035\">https:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/1906835040379306035<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300a\u6295\u8d44\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u300b\uff08The Most Important Thing Illuminated\uff09\u662f\u970d\u534e\u5fb7\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10947\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.invbus.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}